By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour is set to tee off for the Waste Management Phoenix Open which is hosted by TPC Scottsdale out in Scottsdale, Arizona. This fan-favorite event, often referred to as “The People’s Open,” is always one of the rowdiest tournaments on Tour with an average attendance of over 180,000+ fans each round, 700,000+ for the week. Unlike many recent PGA events, only one course will fall into play this week so there will be no multi-course headaches to deal with. This is also a fairly strong field that features half of the world’s top 10 ranked golfers and 59 of the top 100 overall. Given the single course rotation and a bit less daylight available at this time of the year, this event is capped at 132 golfers with the standard cut rule in play – the top 65 players (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. Pending a lengthy playoff, the PGA Tour times the WMPO to wrap up about an hour ahead of Super Bowl kickoff in order to give spectators time to clear out and go watch the big game. Feel free to throw the WMPO broadcast up on TV as you make your Super Bowl LVIII preparations and enjoy one of the most exciting final round finishes on the entire PGA schedule!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Scottsdale

Par 71 | 7,261 Yards

Greens: Bermuda (Overseeded with Bentgrass/Poa)

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 28th, 26th, 42nd, 18th, 24th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: E, -2, -3, -1, -1

Winning Scores Last 5 Years: -19, -16, -19, -17, -17

Despite some recent renovations to increase its difficulty, TPC Scottsdale remains a pretty forgiving course. It features some fairly playable rough, so bombers can have a slight advantage so long as they avoid landing in one of the 68 bunkers. There are various water hazards around the course and very errant tee shots run the risk of getting caught up in a native desert area. Six of the final nine holes bring water into play and we’ll definitely see some golf balls find the drink down that stretch. This course also sits at an elevation of around 1,500 feet above sea level. As a result of the course’s elevation combined with the arid desert conditions, drives tend to fly around 10 yards longer than usual which, in turn, shortens the overall scorecard length of this course. Last year, the average driving distance at TPC Scottsdale was 303.5 yards.

Since this is a traditional Par 71 set-up, there are only three Par 5s in play but they’re all reachable in two shots by the majority of the field. About a third of the birdies scored for this entire tournament will come on those three Par 5 holes. The 17th hole also offers up a high-risk-high-reward driveable Par 4. Golfers will absolutely need to go low at those opportunistic parts of the course if they hope to push for a high-end finish. Part of what makes this event so exciting is how quickly the leaderboard can change, particularly in the final round on the back nine. Two of the Par 5s, as well as that driveable Par 4 17th hole, are back-loaded across the final six holes. Also, within that final six-hole stretch lies one of the most unique holes on the entire PGA Tour -- the notorious Par 3 16th hole which is surrounded by stadium seating and carries an atmosphere not all too different from a rowdy football game… kinda like the one which will follow this event on Sunday evening!

With all of that said, this is a ball striker’s paradise and golfers who are solid off of the tee and possess great iron play will reign supreme – especially those who excel in the 150-175 yard range, as that will be the most common distance guys will be taking their approach shots from. The Bermuda grass greens (overseeded with bentgrass/poa) range from small to very large, depending on the hole, and typically run firm and fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter) and do not feature much undulation or slope. Generally speaking, these greens should play somewhat easier, or at least provide more predictable reads, than the Poa Annua greens which golfers have contended with in recent weeks.

TPC Scottsdale has some of the “stickiest” course history on the entire PGA circuit -- meaning, guys either tend to do well here year in and year out, or they don’t. That’s just something to keep in mind when constructing your player pool. Enjoy the WMPO and Super Bowl LVIII this week! It’s bound to be an awesome weekend for sports fans!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: Sustained winds around 10-15 mph with 20+ mph gusts. Light rain is possible in the afternoon and temps are on the cooler side (upper-40s/low-50s).

Friday: Noticeably better conditions than Friday. Winds will barely hit 5 mph. Cloudy with cool temps.

Weekend: Some ~15 mph winds could come around on Saturday afternoon but, otherwise, conditions look nice over the weekend, especially for Sunday’s final round.

⚖️Weather Verdict: It will be worth monitoring the forecast this week as there is potential for a wave advantage to develop on Thursday. Currently, both morning and afternoon waves will have to deal with the moderately high winds for at least a portion of their opening round. No wave/weather advantage as of now, but run a final forecast check on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning in case there are any major changes.

WM Phoenix Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage| 15%

5. Proximity from 150-175 Yards | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

WMPO Phoenix Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

WMPO DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.