PGA DFS Guide + DraftKings & FanDuel Cheat Sheet | ZOZO Championship ⛳

Strategy Guide & PGA DFS Cheat Sheet

Author

Ryan Humphries
October 17, 2023

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour travels out to Japan this week for the fifth edition of the ZOZO Championship which is hosted by Acordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan. In 2019, this became the first ever PGA sanctioned event held in Japan – a country that is just as crazy about its golf, if not more so, than any other country in the world. Do note that due to COVID restrictions in 2020, this event was held at Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, California so event history for that year isn’t necessarily useful this week. But we can certainly reference some course history for the 2019, 2021, and 2022 seasons. A small 78-man field is in play this week and there will be no cut. Despite the small field, there is a decent amount of talent teeing up in Japan this week with 34 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world on site.

It’s certainly an awesome time to be a sports fan. NBA makes its return next week, the World Series is just around the corner, the NHL recently started back up, and of course, the NFL and CFB seasons are in full mid-season swing. That will put PGA on the back burner for most people but staying active and on top of these early-season golf tournaments can go a long way toward success in the grand scope of things. I do believe it is wise to lower your PGA bankroll spend this time of the season but, of course, someone has to take down these GPP prize pools! That might as well be us, right?!

 

Reminder: Since this tournament is played in Japan, the first tee will be at 7:45 pm ET on Wednesday evening (8:45 am local time on Thursday in Japan)! Make sure your lineups are set by then!

The Course Preview ⛳

Accordia Golf Narashino CC is a parkland-style Par 70 course that stretches 7,079 yards. Compared to most Par 70 courses played on the PGA Tour, it possesses many unique qualities. In terms of total distance, this isn’t an overly long course. Of the ten Par 4s, only one checks in between 406-485 yards. So, on the majority of holes, golfers will be contending with either long (>485 yards) or short (<406 yards) hole layouts with only the 425-yard Par 4 No. 15 being the lone mid-length Par 4 hole. Another course detail of note, even though this is a Par 70, there are three Par 5s and five Par 3s (all under 200 yards) in play – traditionally, Par 70s will feature only two Par 5s and four Par 3s.

Accordia Golf Narashino CC consists of six dogleg holes and most holes present relatively narrow tree-lined fairways, which are seeded with bouncy Zoysia grass. The undulating bentgrass greens will be on the smaller side but sharp iron play can lead to plenty of greens hit in regulation. What’s interesting to note is that there will be two greens on each hole, as is traditional on Japanese golf courses (one green is used during summer/spring months, one for fall/winter months). Golfers will receive a free drop if they happen to land on the wrong green. This course has shown some teeth in the three years it has been played on the PGA Tour. In 2022, it ranked as the 18th most difficult course on the season, the 15th most difficult in 2021, and the 13th most difficult in 2019. Once again, don’t forget about the earlier-than-usual start time for this event (7:45 pm ET Wednesday evening)!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage for golfers either teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or for the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). Your top priority in PGA DFS is to get 6-out-of-6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line and into the weekend – from there, anything can happen! If there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday AM: Calm winds around 5 mph. Gusts only hitting 10-12 mph.

Thursday PM: 10 mph sustained winds with 15 mph gusts.

Friday AM: Much windier with 10-15 mph sustained winds, 20-30 mph gusts.

Friday PM: 20+ mph sustained winds, 30-40 mph gusts.

Weekend: A little windy on Saturday but much better compared to Friday. Sunday will feature the calmest conditions of the week.

 

⚖️Weather Verdict: Weather is less of a factor in DFS decision-making since there is no cut to worry about this week. With the smaller field, tee times are also more condensed and every golfer will tee off no later than 10:57 am (local time) on Thursday and Friday. That said, golfers who draw the earliest tee times in round two could benefit from avoiding the brunt of those Friday winds.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 10%

ZOZO Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

ZOZO Championship DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.