By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

A quick note before we get into the golf goodness: I’m on a heavy time crunch this week so this will be a bare-bones newsletter but we’ll be looking to cover all the bases here. Let’s get it!

The final major championship of the season is here! The 150th Open Championship returns to the home of golf at St. Andrews (Old Course) located in Fife, Scotland.

Field: 156 Golfers

Cut Rule: Top 70 & ties after 36 holes

Field Strength: Elite | All top 25 ranked golfers in attendance, 83 of the top 100

Purse: $14 million ($2.5M to 1st)

First Tee: Thursday, July 14th at 1:35 am ET (6:35 am local)

Tiger check? He’s here.

The Course Preview ⛳

St. Andrews Links (Old Course)

Par 72 | 7,313 Yards

Grass: Combination of fescue, bentgrass, and poa

> St. Andrew first hosted The Open in 1873. This will be the 30th time The Open will be played here.

> The Open was last played here in 2015 when Zach Johnson won in a playoff against Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman with a score of 15-under.

> Fairways are generous in width but slopes and mounds can generate some uneven lies.

> The rough can be brutal and present some awfully tricky lies as well.

> 112 bunkers are scattered throughout the course and represent a notable course defense.

> The greens are large and feature a high amount of undulation.

> Every player tees off on the first hole for all four rounds.

> This is an unusual layout for a Par 72 -- only two Par 5s and two Par 3s.

> The course itself is scorable given ideal conditions, but as expected on a Scottish course, wind and rain can play a major factor.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday AM: Winds mostly around 10-15 mph.

Thursday PM: Winds will stay at 15+ mph throughout the afternoon.

Friday AM: 10-15 mph winds, chance for rain early.

Friday PM: 10-15 mph winds.

Weekend: Pretty good conditions given the course location. Winds should stay at or below 10 mph for much of the weekend with a chance for rain on Sunday.

Verdict: The weather can change here in a heartbeat and right now I don’t see any reason to assign any sort of significant weather advantage to either wave. With that said, the AM/PM wave may benefit slightly if the current forecast holds but that won’t play a factor in my DFS decision-making.

The Open Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Par 4 Scoring | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

6. Three-Putt Avoidance | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

The Open Championship Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Rory McIlroy | DK: $11.1k, FD: $12k

Odds: 10/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Everything Rory is doing right now has him poised for a major championship victory. The worst finish in his last seven starts has been a T-19. He’s been rolling it extremely well on the greens, specifically from long putting distances. His track record at British Opens has been great as well. He has four top-five finishes within his last six Open appearances, including a win (2014) and runner-up (2018).

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

It’ll be very tough to make a case *against* the X man this week. He’s on fire with back-to-back victories and has been crushing on Par 4s this season -- the Old Course at St. Andrews will feature 14 Par 4 holes. Schauffele has enjoyed some solid results at recent Open Championships, highlighted by a runner-up in 2018. There are some DFS discounts we can take advantage of here since salaries were released before Schauffele emerged victorious at last week’s Scottish Open.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 28/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #18

Key Stats Only Rank: #21

Jordan Spieth | DK: $10k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 18/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Shane Lowry | DK: $9.3k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #9

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Tony Finau | DK: $8,4k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 55/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #6

Key Stats Only Rank: #22

Finau finds himself in excellent form heading into the final major of the season with just one missed cut within his last nine starts. He’s been fantastic in his five previous Open Championships, finishing no worse than T-27 with four top 20s and two top 10s.

Max Homa | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #13

Key Stats Only Rank: #35

Homa has 100% taken the next step as a professional golfer. He has risen to No. 19 in the Official World Golf Rankings thanks to seven top 20 finishes within his last ten starts. He played well on Scottish soil last week en route to a T-16 finish and in general there are just very few weaknesses to his game at the moment. 

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10k

Odds: 35/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #25

Key Stats Only Rank: #44

Paul Casey | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #22

Key Stats Only Rank: #41

Tiger Woods | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 90/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Jordan Smith | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Smith has been lights out on the DP World Tour where he has crushed in the ball striking department. He should be able to thrive on these generous fairways thanks to his elite prowess off the tee (ranks 1st in SG: OTT on the DPWT). Following his solid T-24 finish at last week’s Scottish Open, he has now strung together seven consecutive top 25 finishes.

Wyndham Clark | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k

Odds: 400/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #75

Key Stats Only Rank: #55

Sometimes on these wide-open links courses, all you need is a guy who can drive the hell out of the ball and get hot with the putter. Wyndham Clark is one of those guys. He has averaged nearly 320 yards per drive on the PGA Tour and, despite losing a couple of strokes on the greens last week, he typically carries one of the hottest flat sticks in his bag and rarely three-putts. Look for Clark to perform very well on these large green complexes at St. Andrews.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Christiaan Bezuidenhout | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #39

Key Stats Only Rank: #42

Aaron Wise | DK: $7k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #15

Key Stats Only Rank: #30

Keith Mitchell | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #36

Key Stats Only Rank: #53

Joohyung Kim | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 175/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

The Open Championship Bets

For anyone interested, I’ll be posting my final betting card for The Open Championship over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 9:00 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I’ll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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