By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The world’s best head out to The Country Club in Brookline, MA to compete in the 122nd edition of the US Open. The 155-man field is loaded up with talent as every top 60 ranked golfer in the OWGR is in attendance. The US Open also provides exemptions to many other lower-ranking pros and amateurs alike who punched their tickets via qualifying competitions across the country. Recent Major winners who rank outside the top 60 in the OWGR are also extended an invite along with qualifying amateurs around the world and other players who meet special exemptions as determined by the USGA. This tournament truly provides some of the best storylines every year – not just in golf, but in the world of sports as a whole. There will be no shortage of narratives to back and underdogs to root for. The US Open also implements a unique cut rule where only the top 60 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. With that in mind, we could end up seeing a very low 6/6 rate this week. Carnage, chaos, jubilation, and exasperation will be ingrained with every shot this week before an eventual winner can be crowned on Father’s Day Sunday.

The Course Preview ⛳

The Country Club (TCC)

Location: Brookline, MA

Par 70 | 7,254 Yards

Greens: Poa Annua

Comp Courses: Torrey Pines, Bethpage Black, Winged Foot GC

The Country Club is a historic course that resides about 10 miles from downtown Boston and has been in existence for 129 years, though it has been quite some time since it was featured on the PGA Tour. TCC hosted the 1988 US Open as well as the 1999 Ryder Cup. The 2013 US Amateur was also held here which saw Matt Fitzpatrick come away victorious. It has since undergone many tweaks and changes and, in typical US Open fashion, it is set up to prove an extremely difficult challenge for the world’s best golfers this week.

Off the tee, golfers will be targeting tight but not incredibly constrictive fairways, some of which can feature significant elevation changes and/or create blind approach shots. Hitting the fairways will be important, but it won’t be the most challenging task for golfers to succeed with this week. Missing the fairways will be a problem. Depending on where an errant tee shot lands, it could find itself in some extremely thick rough that will only allow golfers to advance the ball 20-30 yards down the fairway. Or it could land in one of the patches of waist/chest-high fescue at which point that player’s golf ball may as well be in another dimension. There will also be 82 bunkers to navigate around, though water hazards will not be a major issue, they will come into play on four holes.

Some big emphasis will be placed on accurate approach play. You want golfers in your lineups who can throw darts because the greens at TCC are maniacally small; in fact, in terms of average square footage, they’re the second-smallest greens in major championship history. Inevitably, every golfer is going to miss some greens. At that point, scrambling and crafty around the green play will be of the utmost importance. Golfers are going to be put through the wringer once they miss a green because there is plenty of that thick rough that comes into play along with some insidious greenside bunkers and some “chocolate drop” mounds that can create awfully tricky lies.

There will be seven Par 4 holes that will measure in at 450+ yards along with a drivable 310-yard Par 4 that could provide a rare scoring opportunity. One of the two Par 5s is around 550 yards and can be reachable in two shots by much of the field. However, the other Par 5 is a beautiful 619-yard monster that won’t be so easy to tame. The Par 3s will also be tough and included in those four holes is a devious little downhill 130-yard Par 3 that is encompassed in catastrophe.

So, some general qualities that golfers will need to possess in order to succeed this week include: strong off the tee stats with at least a fairly accurate driver, good proximity on approach stats particularly from long distances (175+ yards), the ability to scramble and make some good things happen around the greens, and proficiency in bogey avoidance. Having success in previous majors, and US Opens specifically, will also be a nice plus. The USGA always wants this tournament to produce a winning score as close to par as possible and the general consensus is that they’ll get their wish this week. It’s going to be a wild week so let’s get to a look at the weather, some key stats I’ll be weighing in my personal US Open model, and some golfers to consider at various price points!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: It’ll range anywhere from the mid-50s to the low-80s throughout this week. Rain may come into play late on Friday but the remaining rounds appear to be clear.

Thursday AM: Light winds mostly around 5-10 mph with gusts reaching up to 20 mph.

Thursday PM: Sustained winds pick up to around 15 mph with gusts reaching 25-30 mph.

Friday AM: Mostly manageable sustained winds at 10-15 mph. Gusts could reach problematic speeds of 25+ mph.

Friday PM: Much of the same as Friday AM, though it looks like there will be less significant gusts -- more in the 15-20 mph range.

Weekend: Both Saturday and Sunday are shaping up pretty similarly. 10-ish mph sustained winds, a bit more, a bit less at times. Gusts maxing out at around 20 mph.

Verdict: Thursday morning looks to provide the best conditions for the first two rounds. Since Friday, at worst, seems like an even day for both waves, I believe we can pin the AM/PM wave with a decent little weather advantage. Not a significant one, but enough to make note of.

US Open Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

> Emphasis on Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity from 175+ Yards) | 10%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 15%

5. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

6. Fairway Proximity | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

US Open Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 10/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th SG: OTT, 8th SG: ATG, 18th SG: App

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

This Rory pick should surprise no one. I don’t often chase golfers coming off of a win from the previous week, especially when it’s a major tournament that follows the victory. However, McIlroy checks off all the right boxes for this US Open week and it isn’t as if he’s riding the high of one of his first-ever PGA wins or anything. He’s hoisted plenty of trophies in his time on the PGA Tour and should be mentally prepared to chase after another one. The four-time major winner has also posted 13 overall top five major finishes in his career along with 23 top 10s in 50 overall major appearances. He won the 2011 US Open and has finished 7th, 8th, and 9th in this event over the last three seasons. Rory also ranks no worse than 30th in any of the key stats for the week and he’s been swinging some exceptional long irons to boot. Despite being the fourth-most expensive DFS option, McIlroy is the US Open betting favorite at 10/1 and also draws a preferred Thursday morning tee time. It’s hard to hate on Rory this week.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th P4 AVG, 7th Bogey Avoidance, 12th SG: App

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

I’ll be playing it fairly safe with the second highlighted golfer as well but there is too much to love about Schauffele this week to not mention him in-depth. While the win has alluded him, Schauffele has never had even a remotely poor finish at a US Open. In five career US Open appearances, he has finished no worse than T-7. He’s also one of the few golfers in the field that has previous competitive experience at The Country Club going back to the 2013 US Amateur where he finished T-9. He is another golfer who knocks it out of the park on the stat sheet, ranking no worse than 31st in this field in any of the six key stats I listed above in the newsletter. And, while it is not a key stat for the week, Schauffele leads the entire field in Sand Save %, which will certainly come in handy around these tricky greens. Finally, the preferred Thursday morning draw is a nice plus as well.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 12/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 1st Bogey Avd., 1st FW Proximity

AM/PM Tee Time: No

Jon Rahm | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 14/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #6

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: OTT, 6th P4 AVG, 8th Bogey Avd.

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Will Zalatoris | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #14

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: App, 7th SG: OTT, 10th FW Proximity

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Sam Burns | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #13

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th SG: App, 6th Bogey Avd., 9th P4 AVG

AM/PM Tee Time: No

The mid-range is loaded so it is difficult to settle on just a few golfers to mention. But Burns is coming in at a pretty disrespectful price tag, particularly on DraftKings. The surging 25-year-old star currently ranks as the No. 9 player in the world and has won three times this season, yet he is priced as the 21st most expensive golfer on DK, and 14th most expensive golfer on FD. Over the last 24 rounds, Burns ranks 1st in strokes gained on approach and third in strokes gained in the short game. At last week’s Canadian Open, Burns’ +9.40 SG: App led the entire field and was nearly two strokes more than the next closest iron striker (Aaron Rai, +7.18 SG: App). He doesn’t draw a favorable tee time and his history in majors is fairly lackluster but he’s at the top of his game right now and should, at the very least, be considered for GPPs this week.

Sungjae Im | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #8

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd P4 AVG, 2nd SG: ATG, 2nd Bogey Avd.

AM/PM Tee Time: No

Here is some more DFS pricing disrespect being thrown at Sungjae Im, the 30th most expensive golfer on DK, and 22nd on FD. Im has posted no worse than a T-21 finish in his previous four starts and has only two missed cuts in his previous 15 stroke play events. He’s one of the best golfers off the tee (10th in SG: OTT), doesn’t make many bogeys, and can scramble his tail off (1st in Scrambling). He’s done decently well in the last two US Opens (T-35 in 2021, T-22 in 2020) and profiles as an excellent course fit. While he doesn’t receive a favorable tee time draw, as stated in the weather section, the advantage for the AM/PM wave is notable but not hugely significant. I’d be just fine rolling Im out in all formats.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #11

Key Stats Only Rank: #17

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 11th SG: OTT, 13th SG: ATG, 20th P4 AVG

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #19

Key Stats Only Rank: #22

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th SG: OTT, 9th Bogey Avd., 10th SG: ATG

AM/PM Tee Time: No

Max Homa | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #25

Key Stats Only Rank: #35

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 18th SG: App, 22nd SG: OTT, 23rd FW Proximity

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Davis Riley | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #31

Key Stats Only Rank: #43

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 33rd P4 AVG, 34th SG: OTT, 46th Bogey Avd.

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

A lack of major championship experience is perhaps the only red flag that pops up for Davis Riley. Otherwise, the kid has simply been on a tear while finishing T-13 or better in five straight starts. In his last 20 rounds, he’s third in the field in total strokes gained and third in fantasy scoring. He draws a preferred tee time and I honestly don’t hate him for a cash game play, but you do want to side with major experience when targeting ‘safer’ golfers. But Riley’s game seems to be fully clicking right now so I’d keep him in mind for GPPs.

Adri Arnaus | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7k

Odds: 250/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #82

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

AM/PM Tee Time: No

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

You might be able to tell since I’m sure most are thinking “who the hell is Adri Arnaus?” but this is a complete punt play that will carry some notable risk. While most American golf fans may not know who this guy is, Arnaus is, in fact, the 51st-ranked golfer in the world which is how he qualified for this US Open. He has rapidly ascended the Official World Golf Rankings thanks to a slew of top 10 finishes over on the DP World Tour, including a win at the Catalunya Championship in early May. He also landed a T-3 finish at the Saudi International which was a field that featured plenty of high-end golf talent. Some may also remember him from the PGA Championship a month ago when Arnaus posted a very respectable T-30 finish. He’ll be a worthy GPP flier this week and should carry <5% ownership.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Harold Varner III | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9k

Odds: 90/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #27

Key Stats Only Rank: #27

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: ATG, 22nd FW Proximity, 25th SG: App

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Russell Henley | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #32

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: App, 16th SG: ATG, 22nd P4 AVG

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Denny McCarthy | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 250/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #42

Key Stats Only Rank: #56

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 17th Bogey Avd., 19th SG: ATG, 21st P4 AVG

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

US Open Bets

For anyone interested, I'll be posting my final betting card for the US Open over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 8-9 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I'll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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