By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota, where TPC Twin Cities will play host to the 3M Open. This will only be the fourth year that this course and tournament have been on the PGA circuit so the course history will be fairly limited. The strength of the field does not compare to the one from last week’s Open Championship, but there are still some recognizable names teeing it up this week. In total, only 13 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be in attendance, but there is plenty of rising talent that will be looking to make a splash this week. Do note that the 36-hole cut rule will revert to the usual “top 65 + ties” making it into the weekend. We’re only three weeks out from the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so the 3M Open will represent one of the final chances for golfers to secure valuable FEC points! This is far from a marquee tournament, but it should be a solid event, and if you like birdies, plenty of those are expected over the next few days!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Twin Cities

Par 71 - 7,431 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty Last 3 Years: 24th, 23rd, 36th

Cut Line Last 3 Years: -1, -1, -2

First Tee: Thursday, July 21st @ 7:50 am ET

This course may be making just its fourth appearance on the PGA Tour but TPC Twin Cities has been on the Champions Tour circuit for quite some time. For the uninformed, that’s the senior’s golf tour and even those older gentlemen can tear up this place – regularly winning with a score of around 20-under. The PGA did add over 250 yards in length to better challenge the PGA caliber players when TPC Twin Cities was added onto the circuit in 2019 but, in ideal conditions, we can expect a winning score to land in the vicinity of 20-under.

That isn’t to say TPC Twin Cities doesn’t have any teeth. There are 72 bunkers to navigate as well as a whopping 27 water hazards which come into play on 15 holes. Since this is a Par 71, there are three Par 5 holes in play. All three of these Par 5s will play just above 590 yards, so any golfer with above-average length off of the tee should have ample opportunity to go low on those holes. In the last three seasons, essentially a third of all birdies scored came from those three holes, so you can safely assume I’ll be targeting golfers who excel at Par 5 scoring. Since this course is on the longer side, it is no surprise that 25% of all approach shots come from 200+ yards, so that will be an important approach range to keep in mind. Three of the four Par 3s measure in at over 200 yards, so accurate long iron play will be vital on those holes as well.

Aside from that, I’ll be formulating a basic recipe with my remaining key stats that should correlate well with this course. Those are strokes gained on approach, overall birdie or better percentage, and Par 4 scoring average. I’m also going to emphasize strokes gained off the tee with a slight emphasis on driving distance. The rough at TPC Twin Cities is very manageable, especially in comparison to last week, so wayward drivers won’t be penalized too much, and the fairways are slightly wider than average. The bentgrass greens are multi-tiered, above average in size, and feature very little undulation. When it comes to green speeds, they should run at average to slightly fast speeds (about 12 on the stimpmeter). In general, there just isn’t anything overly challenging about this place as long as the weather stays fairly cooperative. Last year some impactful winds in the early rounds did hamper scoring somewhat, but Cameron Champ emerged victorious with a final score of 15-under.

Quick note: if you’re waiting on the MLB to return from its All-Star break and looking to give PGA DFS a shot, feel free to run any questions by me or one of the other PGA regulars in the LineStar chat!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday AM: 10 mph winds in the early AM, picking up to about 15 mph in the late morning. Gusts are expected to hit 20+ mph.

Thursday PM: Sustained winds around 15 mph all afternoon with 20 mph gusts.

Friday AM: Light winds around 5 mph in the early morning, closer to 10 mph in the late morning. Gusts at 15-20 mph.

Friday PM: Sustained winds should stay at or below 10 mph all afternoon. Gusts should not be much stronger than that.

Weekend: Fairly manageable winds on both Saturday and Sunday, around 10 mph or below with the occasional 15-20 mph gusts. The best chance for rain comes on Saturday around midday.

Verdict: I’m not seeing a significant weather advantage for either wave, so it should not impact your DFS decision-making this week.

3M Open Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

 > Emphasis on Driving Distance | 5%

6. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

3M Open Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model, which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $8,500 and above on DraftKings

Note: With only six golfers over $9,000 on DraftKings this week, I’ll be lowering the cut-off for golfers highlighted in this range to $8,500+ (DK). 

Sahith Theegala | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #8

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th P5 BoB%, 18th BoB%, 22nd P4 AVG

First, I believe it is fair to have some reservations about all the golfers in this field who also competed across the pond at last week’s Open Championship -- especially those who made the cut and played all four rounds. But fatigue hasn’t seemed to be much of an issue for Theegala. The 24-year-old PGA newcomer has been playing a lot of golf, in general, this season, and he shows no signs of slowing down. He is riding a streak of 12 made cuts in a row with a couple of top-fives in the mix along the way. He stands out as a strong course fit, ranking 26th or better (in this field) in every key stat besides proximity from 200+ yards (ranks 46th). Theegala has not been great at putting on bentgrass, but given how straightforward the green complexes are this week, perhaps he can find a nice groove with the flat stick. As far as his tee-to-green game goes, we should expect good things out of him at TPC Twin Cities, and it’s a great spot for him to land a breakthrough win in a weaker field.

Cam Davis | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th P5 BoB%, 8th BoB%, 15th Driving Distance

Cam Davis will be a popular option this week, and I’d expect many people will fade (or go low exposure on) the golfers priced above him and begin lineup builds with him as the anchor. He does have plenty of factors working in his favor. As long as he avoids the multitude of water hazards scattered around TPC Twin Cities, Davis’ bomber profile will translate well to this course. He’s played here in the previous two seasons, posting solid results of T-28 and T-12. Davis is also riding some nice form after landing a T-8 at the John Deere Classic three weeks ago, and a solo 6th place finish in last week’s alternate event, the Barracuda Championship. He’s a strong approach player from long distances (23rd in proximity from 200+ yards), and, most importantly, he ranks inside the top 10 in overall BoB% as well as P5 BoB%. In nine starts since the beginning of April, Davis has missed only one cut, and his previous success on this course should provide a high level of security, thus allowing him to be deployed in all formats.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Tony Finau | DK: $10.5k, FD: $12k

Odds: 14/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: App, 4th P5 BoB%, 6th BoB%

Adam Hadwin | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #6

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 13th P4 AVG, 15th SG: App, 23rd BoB%

Davis Riley | DK: $9k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #12

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd BoB%, 8th P4 AVG, 14th SG: OTT

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,400 on DraftKings.

Brendan Steele | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10k

Odds: 35/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #10

Key Stats Only Rank: #29

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: OTT, 13th P4 AVG, 19th SG: App

We haven’t seen Steele compete in about a month, but the last time he was teeing it up on the PGA Tour, he notched a T-25 at the Travelers Championship. That was his third consecutive top 25 finish which followed a T-10 at the Memorial and a very impressive T-9 at the PGA Championship. He has made seven consecutive cuts heading into the 3M Open, and it would seem to be a great week to go back to Steele once again. No one in this field has been better off of the tee this season than Steele, and this is a course where he should be able to grip it and rip it out of the tee box. The putter has been the main club holding him back (108th in SG: Putting), but TPC Twin Cities has some of the easiest greens out of any course on the PGA Tour, so perhaps that won’t be so detrimental to his game this week.

Adam Svensson | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th BoB%, 12th SG: App, 24th P5 BoB%

Svensson could have checked in with DFS salaries that were $1,000 higher than what they are, and he still would have earned himself a highlighted segment in this newsletter. He has hit a real stride recently, posting four straight top 25 finishes and seven consecutive made cuts. Svensson also landed a T-15 result in 2019 when this course/event first debuted on the PGA Tour. While he lacks elite distance, I don’t see that hurting him too much this week, thanks to his excellent overall ball striking prowess and ability to pour in the birdies. Bentgrass greens have also been his best-putting surface this season. This guy could easily emerge from the mid-range and push for a top 10 finish, perhaps even a podium finish. 

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Nick Hardy | DK: $8k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #28

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: OTT, 8th P4 AVG, 11th BoB%

Christopher Gotterup | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 45/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

Emiliano Grillo | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #18

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th BoB%, 6th SG: OTT, 9th Prox. 200+ Yards

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Joohyung Kim | DK: $7.3k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP **DraftKings Preferred**

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

Joohyung Kim was a late addition to the field, but, if you’re on DraftKings, he is certainly a guy to consider out of this price range. FanDuel has priced him appropriately but for a golfer who is tied with the eighth-best odds to win (+2800), he is severely underpriced on DraftKings. Kim primarily plays over on the Asian Tour, where he has racked up a slew of top-five finishes (as seen on his recent OWGR event history below). However, he has made five-of-six PGA cuts this season, highlighted by finishes of 3rd at the Scottish Open, T-17 at the Byron Nelson, 23rd at the US Open, and T-47 at last week’s Open Championship. This guy can clearly compete in PGA caliber fields, and this will be the easiest PGA field he’s competed against all season. 

Michael Gligic | DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #13

Key Stats Only Rank: #38

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 20th P5 BoB%, 30th Prox. 200+ Yards, 31st SG: OTT

The value range is extra ‘scrubby’ this week so we do have to be cautious with most of these golfers, but Gligic is one guy who sticks out among his similarly priced competitors. Aside from his first-round withdrawal from the Canadian Open back in early June, Gligic has made the cut in his other previous seven starts. Six of those recent finishes have been T-40 or better, including a T-10 at the John Deere Classic three weeks back. Gligic has also made the cut at this event in the last two seasons, highlighted by a T-26 in 2020. He has shown off proficient birdie-making skills, particularly on Par 5 holes, and he’s been solid with his long iron approach shots. Considering how well he has played in the weeks since his WD from the Canadian Open wasn’t due to any sort of serious long-term injury, so he’s a cheaper golfer we can feel pretty good about firing up this week.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Hank Lebioda | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #25

Key Stats Only Rank: #47

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 45th SG: App, 48th BoB%, 63rd Prox. 200+ Yards

Justin Lower | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #54

Key Stats Only Rank: #38

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 25th BoB%, 41st P5 BoB%, 42nd SG: App

Satoshi Kodaira | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #41

Key Stats Only Rank: #17

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th BoB%, 10th P5 BoB%, 30th SG: OTT

3M Open Bets

For anyone interested, I’ll be posting my final betting card for the 3M Open over on my Twitter later this evening, likely around 8:30 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I’ll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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