By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads into the second week of the Florida swing as golfers travel out to Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida to tee it up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event annually draws a strong field with many of the world’s best golfers coming out to honor one of the game’s all-time greats. However, with THE PLAYERS Championship, aka the tournament which carries the largest purse in golf, only a week away, plenty of the top players are also electing to take this week off. But this still remains as one of the more talented fields you will see in a regular season event outside of Majors and WGC tournaments. In total, 58 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world are on-site at Bay Hill this week. Since the API carries invitational status, the size of the field is a bit smaller than usual with only 120 players in attendance. The usual 36-hole cut rule is still in effect so the top 65 golfers (including ties) on the leaderboard after two rounds will move on to play the weekend. With that said, do keep in mind that over half of the field will be making it past the cut line. Normally, that allows for slightly more aggressive lineup builds in tournaments. Given the fairly soft pricing with many highly skilled golfers carrying more affordable salaries, a more balanced approach is also firmly in play as well, especially for cash builds.

The Course Preview ⛳

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Par 72 | 7,466 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Type: Parkland

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 9th, 1st, 9th, 15th, 9th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: +2, +3, +1, +1, +3

Bay Hill is one of the most iconic courses in golf and sets up as a Par 72 which measures 7,466 yards. It’s a course where elite ball strikers reign supreme and it will actually play longer than its measured length in large part due to the threat of water hazards as well as several doglegged holes. Water comes into play on eight of the holes and there are 84 bunkers to navigate around. With many water hazards and some thick rough in play, Bay Hill demands a ton of respect off of the tee and, despite the wide tree-lined fairways, you will see many golfers elect to play “less than driver” on specific holes where hazards are more prevalent. The average driving distance at Bay Hill over the last five years has only been about 280 yards which is notably short by PGA standards. Similar to last week, there will be a considerable amount of golf balls that will end up finding the drink -- usually, around 200 or so shots end up in the water at Bay Hill each year which can lead to some ugly numbers on the scorecard. Due to the length of this course, over a third of approach shots will come from 200+ yards out so players who hit the long irons well will fare better than those who struggle from distance. On approach shots, golfers will be targeting average sized Bermuda grass greens. These greens should run fast (about 12.5 on the stimpmeter) – some green complexes are elevated and most will feature plenty of slope, undulation, and runoff areas on the perimeter.

Nearly half of all birdies made at Bay Hill come on the four Par 5 holes, so players who can take advantage of those scoring opportunities must fall within consideration. It seems quite obvious, but if golfers fail to score well on the Par 5s, they won’t be anywhere near contention come Sunday. Tiger Woods, an eight-time winner of this event, has stated that his approach to success here was by "playing for par on most of the holes and being aggressive on the Par 5s to score." Seems simple enough… but there’s also only one Tiger. Patience, creativity, and the ability to simply grind are major keys to success at Bay Hill.

The winning score at the API has landed between 11-under and 19-under in nine of the last ten years. 2020 was the noticeable outlier when Tyrrell Hatton won with a modest score of 4-under and Bay Hill ended as the most difficult course played across the entire 2019-20 PGA Tour season. Sportsbooks have the winning score O/U set at 13.5-under par this week, so we should clearly expect to see the winning score land more closely within that 11-under to 19-under range once again. But make no mistake, even in ideal conditions, Bay Hill can be an incredibly tough track to contend with and, as listed above, it has ranked among the top 10 most difficult courses played on the PGA Tour in four of the last five years. Unpolished and errant play at Bay Hill can be severely punished and result in quick slides down the leaderboard. As with any course, especially down in Florida, wind can add an extra layer of difficulty to scoring conditions. After looking at the early forecast, there will be times this week where impactful winds will come into play, but primarily on the weekend after the cut has passed (and the forecast can always shift dramatically between now and then). I’ll be factoring course history a bit more into my decision making this week, as guys tend to either play well here pretty consistently, or they don’t – there is not much in between. This should be another fun week of golf so let’s dive into a look-ahead at the weather, key stats to consider, players who stand out in my personal model, and some golfers to consider for your DFS lineups!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: It’s heating up a bit down in Florida with temperatures expected to touch the low-80s at times but, for the most part, temps should hang comfortably in the 60s and 70s. No rain is currently in the forecast but, as we saw down the Sunday stretch at the Honda Classic, some wet weather can always pop up out of nowhere in Florida. But no lengthy stoppages are expected.

Wind: Thursday looks perfect with winds barely exceeding 5 mph at any time. On Friday, winds are expected to hit sustained speeds of 10+ mph with slightly stronger gusts, primarily later in the day. On the weekend, sustained speeds are looking to hit 15 mph both days with up to 20 mph gusts.

Verdict: If the current forecast holds, the PM/AM wave draws a slight tee time advantage since they’ll play in the calmest conditions during the second round on Friday. However, I’d use that advantage more as a tiebreaker when deciding between two golfers teeing off in opposite waves as opposed to heavily weighing it in overall DFS strategy.

As always, try to run a final weather check on Wednesday night (or very early Thursday morning) just in case anything changes. Also, if you play single round contests, be sure to run a forecast check prior to each round in order to get the most up-to-date info. You can view the latest forecast by clicking on the image below.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 35%

> Emphasis on Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

2. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 5%

Arnold Palmer Invitational Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

Note: I'm trying out a slightly new format for the player section this week.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Rory McIlroy | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 12/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #24

Overall Model Rank: #4

Best Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: Ball Striking, 20th Proximity 200+ Yards, 23rd P5 BoB%

Rory will check in as the strongest “course horse” at Bay Hill this week. He’s never missed a cut at Bay Hill in seven starts and for the last five years, he has finished no worse than T-10 while recording a win in 2018! Rory has not competed much on the PGA Tour up to this point in the season but the last time we saw him in action, he registered a T-10 at the Genesis Invitational which signified his eighth consecutive top 20 worldwide finish. With balanced builds likely being the more appealing approach this week, McIlroy will make for an enticing GPP spend-up target as he looks to land his sixth consecutive top 10 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 18/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Overall Model Rank: #2

Best Key Stat Trends: 7th P5 BoB%, 8th P4 AVG, 19th SG: Ball Striking

A couple of weeks ago, Scheffler followed up his victory at the WM Phoenix Open, the first win of his PGA career, with a strong T-7 at the Genesis Invitational. He has now made eight consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour with four finishes of T-7 or better in that span. He’s combining very well-rounded performances off the tee along with his approach game which is resulting in excellent ball striking numbers. While Scheffler’s game is more tailor-made for lower-scoring events and his course experience is lacking overall, Scheffler did finish T-15 when he made his Bay Hill debut two years ago so there is no real doubt that he can find success on this trickier track. Scheffler is in the midst of the best stretch of golf in his career so he should be looking to outperform that T-15 finish from the 2020 API.

Will Zalatoris | DK: $9.4k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #6

Best Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: Ball Striking, 6th Bogey Avoidance, 8th Proximity 200+ Yards

Willy Z is back in action and he’ll be looking to build upon his impressive debut performance at Bay Hill from last season where he landed a T-10 result and came away ranking 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green for the week. His three performances this calendar year have netted him finishes of T-6 (AMEX), solo runner-up (Farmers Ins. Open), and a T-26 (Genesis). He’s landing these high-end results despite not yet finding a groove with his putter and Zalatoris has now lost strokes putting in each of his last six events. But his approach game has been immaculate and he has also proven to be one of the absolute best iron players from 200+ yards out. Considering even the shortest of the four Par 3s at Bay Hill measures in at 199 yards, Zalatoris could hold a notable advantage over the majority of the field when it comes to throwing darts onto the greens from those 200+ yard approach distances. To add even more appeal to Willy Z this week, he has been much more consistent with the putter on Bermuda greens. Considering the putter has really been the only club holding him back lately, he’ll carry realistic winning upside if he does in fact continue to roll it well on those Bermuda greens this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $9.2k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #5

Best Key Stat Trends: 2nd P5 BoB%, 4th SG: Ball Striking, 5th Proximity 200+ Yards

Some may have some reservations about rostering Fitzpatrick in DFS this week following his withdrawal from the Genesis Invitational a couple of weeks ago, but his WD was due to dealing with a stomach bug and not from any sort of physical injury that would affect his swing mechanics. Now that he has had two weeks to recover from the illness (and I’m fairly certain he was close to giving it a go at the Genesis to begin with), I could easily see Fitzpatrick picking up right where he left off from his previous two starts which produced a T-6 (Pebble Beach) & T-10 (WMPO). Fitzpatrick is known as a golfer who steps up when the level of competition stiffens and the course conditions are demanding. Viewing his API results from the last three years really backs that up as well. He came away with a T-10 in last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, a T-9 in 2020, and a solo runner-up finish in 2019 where he finished only two strokes behind tournament winner Francesco Molinari. His eight starts at Bay Hill are also the most competitive appearances he has had at any PGA Tour venue across his career. Fitzpatrick loves to roll it on Bermuda greens and, albeit a smaller recent sample size than most, he does rank 1st in this field in SG: Putting (Bermuda). Barring any lingering effects from that stomach bug, I’d be surprised to see anything short of another top 10-ish performance out of Fitz this week.

Marc Leishman | DK: $9.1k, FD: $11k

Odds: 35/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #7

Best Key Stat Trends: 8th Bogey Avoidance, 15th P5 BoB%, 18th P4 AVG

The high-end range is so loaded this week to the point where, skill-wise, there really isn’t a whole lot separating a golfer like Marc Leishman from higher-priced guys like Scottie Scheffler or Hideki Matsuyama. Obviously, Scheffler and Hideki both have very recent PGA Tour wins to their names, while Leishman does not, but that doesn’t negate the fact that the Aussie has been churning out strong results basically every week that he’s been teeing it up. Leishman has made all eight cuts on the PGA Tour this season and has finished outside of the top 20 only twice. He makes his return to Bay Hill where he missed the cut last year but, prior to that, he had reeled off five straight top 25 finishes on this course including a win (2017) and a runner-up (2020). As the 10th (DK) and 9th (FD) most expensive golfer on the board, Leishman simply makes for an appealing anchor to more balanced lineups due to his extensive course history, the strong long-term form, and he checks off plenty of boxes on the stat sheet as well.

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Max Homa | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #25

Overall Model Rank: #20

Best Key Stat Trends: 4th P5 BoB%, 27th SG: Ball Striking, 33rd SG: Putting (Bermuda)

Despite earning a victory at the Fortinet Championship (the first event of the 2021-22 PGA season) and recently reeling off three top 15 finishes within his last four starts, Homa seems to continually fly under the radar. Perhaps it’s a simple lack of name recognition considering Homa has not exactly been a long standing force on the PGA Tour, but he is clearly a guy who has the game to compete with the world’s best. It would also seem he has a knack for navigating the difficult challenges which Bay Hill presents based off of his T-10 finish here last year and his T-24 finish in 2020, which was Homa’s API debut. Statistically, Homa’s ball striking is strong, though his putter is really what helps elevate his game and is a major reason for those recent top 15 finishes. Although putting is not something we can expect a golfer to stay consistent with, Homa can go on torrid runs with the flat stick. He’s also one of the best Par 5 scorers in the field which is obviously a key emphasis this week. Overall, he makes for an exciting mid-range GPP play and likely won’t be too highly owned.

Jason Kokrak | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #31

Overall Model Rank: #16

Best Key Stat Trends: 8th P5 BoB%, 19th Bogey Avoidance, 32nd SG: Putting (Bermuda)

Kokrak has not missed a cut in his last five starts and in that span he has notched a win (Houston Open) along with solid finishes of T-17 and T-26. Bay Hill is a course where Kokrak has found a great deal of success at throughout his career and this will be his ninth consecutive year playing this tournament. Across his last eight starts at Bay Hill, he’s missed only one cut and has recorded four top 10s with two additional top 20s. With the amount of successful course experience he has to his name paired with him hitting a nice stride in the recent form department, Kokrak is a golfer who will be showing up at Bay Hill with realistic winning aspirations and upside.

Keith Mitchell | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 33/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Overall Model Rank: #9

Best Key Stat Trends: 10th Proximity 200+ Yards, 11th P5 BoB%, 18th SG: Ball Striking

Mitchell is sure to be a crowd favorite among the DFS community this week. He’s been scorching hot and aside from his missed cut at the Farmers, he has finished no worse than T-12 in his other five previous starts. Not only will people be drawn to his electric recent form, he has also made 3-of-3 cuts at this event highlighted by a T-5 in 2020 and a T-6 in his Bay Hill debut in 2019. Among golfers in this field, only Jon Rahm and Will Zalatoris have gained more strokes tee to green than Mitchell across the last three months. While his ball striking numbers are carried more by his prowess off the tee (3rd in SG: OTT) as opposed to his iron play (65th in SG: App), his best approach distance is from that 200+ yard range which, as noted in the course break down, will be the most common range golfers will be hitting their iron shots from this week. Mitchell is sure to be one of the highest (if not THE highest) owned golfers this week, but I personally can’t justify fading him.

Chris Kirk | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #23

Overall Model Rank: #25

Best Key Stat Trends: 14th Bogey Avoidance, 23rd P4 AVG, 26th SG: Ball Striking

After back-to-back missed cuts at the AMEX and at Pebble Beach, Kirk rapidly turned things around and is now heading into the API following finishes of T-14 (WMPO) and T-7 (Honda Classic) in his last two starts. In both of those events, Kirk gained strokes in all major categories (Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green, Putting). With the recent form seemingly hitting on all cylinders, Kirk should be looking forward to another appearance at Bay Hill where he has ripped off three top 15 finishes in his last three starts, including a T-8 here a season ago. If he really wants to make some noise, he’ll need to step up his Par 5 scoring a bit (69th in P5 BoB%), but aside from that he ranks inside the top 40 in all other key stat categories. Given his very affordable DFS salaries, he makes a ton of sense in all formats out of this price range.

Cameron Young | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Overall Model Rank: #24

Best Key Stat Trends: 2nd P4 AVG, 13th SG: Ball Striking, 13th P5 BoB%

Young is becoming a popular name within the PGA DFS world and he now has four straight top-26 finishes on the PGA Tour entering this week. His game carries plenty of similarities to Bryson DeChambeau, the reigning champion at this event (not competing this week due to injury). Young’s booming driver (3rd in Driving Distance) and blazing fast clubhead speed have been placing him in strong positions to succeed in recent weeks. Thanks to a strong putter (7th in SG: Putting - Bermuda, 15th in SG: Putting - Overall), he’s been able to capitalize on many of the advantageous situations that his more aggressive play style has produced. While I do love his raw upside this week, the fact that this will be his first professional start at Bay Hill is enough to nix him out of cash game consideration. However, he will remain as one of the more interesting high-upside GPP plays out of this price range. If he keeps up his current level of play, Young will definitely be posting a breakthrough performance sooner rather than later.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Lanto Griffin | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #35

Overall Model Rank: #19

Best Key Stat Trends: 32nd SG: Ball Striking, 34th P4 AVG, 37th Bogey Avoidance

Due to the high number of elite golfers in this field, you will definitely need to take precautions when digging through options in this lower-end price range. There simply reaches a point where there is a noticeable drop off in talent. However, when it comes to Lanto Griffin, you should be able to insert him into lineups with a good deal of confidence. Griffin has made eight consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour with four top 20s carded in that span along the way. His iron play (23rd in SG: App) has been a major asset and he is one of the better Bermuda putters in the field. This will be Griffin’s third consecutive year competing in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and he has previously posted results of T-21 (2021) and T-36 (2020). A made cut would be instant value in cash games and the potential for a top 20-ish finish puts him firmly on the radar for GPP upside.

Rickie Fowler | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #66

Overall Model Rank: #67

Best Key Stat Trends: 18th Proximity 200+ Yards, 47th P5 BoB%, 69th SG: Ball Striking

It’s still a bit of a shock seeing these sort of DFS salaries for Rickie Fowler, especially on DraftKings where he lands inside the $6k range. I personally haven’t been one to chase the “Rickie Fowler resurgence week” but I do have some slight interest this week in the off chance that it finally happens. His form has obviously seen a significant decline ever since he posted a T-3 at The CJ Cup last October. But there are some glimmers of hope peeking through. Fowler has made his last two PGA cuts and even ranked 8th in the field in SG: Putting on the Bermuda greens at PGA National last week (+5.23 strokes) -- unfortunately, he lost -4.68 strokes on approach… blegh! Perhaps Fowler can get his entire game to come together at Bay Hill where he has enjoyed a great deal of success throughout his career. He’s made 9-of-10 cuts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and has finished with three top 20s here over the last five years. I’m definitely not saying he’s going to show up looking like vintage Rickie and compete for a win. But if he does manage to figure out his irons and continues to roll with the kind of putter he showed off last week, a top 25-ish finish would not be crazy at all. Still, Fowler has to be considered a pure GPP flier until further notice. If he comes out and fires 8-over par the first two rounds and misses the cut by a mile, no one should be surprised about that either. I don’t believe that will happen, but Fowler has not done much to instill any confidence in his game lately.

Adam Svensson | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #52

Overall Model Rank: #52

Best Key Stat Trends: 21st Proximity 200+ Yards, 36th SG: Ball Striking, 52nd P5 BoB%

Svensson went into the final round at the Honda Classic on Sunday sitting six strokes back from leader Daniel Berger. He swiftly played himself into contention thanks to a birdie run across the first 10 holes (along with a meltdown from Berger) which, at one point, put him within a stroke of the lead. Unfortunately, he would go on to finish the final eight holes at five-over par and ended up in a tie for 9th. However, there were plenty of positives to take away from Svensson’s performance last week -- the main one being he led the entire field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (+11.80 strokes)! The -4.60 strokes lost putting was his ultimate downfall but it is nice to see this emerging Canadian golfer compete at a high level on a difficult course like PGA National. This will be his debut at Bay Hill but even if he continues to struggle with the putter, any similar tee to green performance to the one he had last week could lead to a juicy result.

Patton Kizzire | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #40

Overall Model Rank: #44

Best Key Stat Trends: 18th SG: Putting (Bermuda), 29th P5 BoB%, 36th Bogey Avoidance

In five starts this calendar year, Kizzire has made it past the cut line four times and even popped off for a T-10 finish at the WM Phoenix Open. He ranks 5th in the field in greens hit in regulation over the last 12 rounds and is known to be a strong putter on Bermuda grass greens. He’s been regularly gaining multiple strokes on approach during his recent starts and, really, with all of those qualities combined, you can’t ask for much else out of a golfer from this range. Kizzire isn’t someone you put into a cash lineup but he’s a worthy GPP flyer who will check in at <3% ownership.

Danny Willett | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8k

Odds: 175/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #62

Overall Model Rank: #59

Best Key Stat Trends: 30th P5 BoB%, 34th Proximity 200+ Yards, 53rd SG: Ball Striking

Willett’s lackluster T-48 at last week’s Honda Classic probably won’t pique the interest of many, however, if it was not for an awful week on the greens (-4.44 SG: Putting), he’d be a much more popular sleeper pick heading into the API. Willett’s +5.22 SG: Ball Striking at the Honda Classic ranked 20th on the week and he was even better tee to green, ranking 13th with +5.63 SG: T2G. His performances at Bay Hill over the last two years have resulted in finishes of T-31 and T-18. It may not be a sexy play on the surface but Willett has won a professional event as recently as last October (Alfred Dunhill Links Championship over on the EURO Tour) and has plenty of potential value as a GPP punt play.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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