By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

Max Homa fended off Keegan Bradley, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, and the betting favorite Rory McIlroy at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship and managed to snag his fourth career PGA Tour win, all of which have come within the last three years. Homa was turning in a slew of top 20 finishes in the weeks and months leading up to the WFC but he was coming up just short of truly contending at those events. He finally pieced it all together across four rounds and he can now add another piece of hardware to a rapidly expanding trophy room… along with another fat check into the bank!

The PGA Tour now moseys its way back down to the Lone Star State as golfers get set to tee it up for the AT&T Byron Nelson which will be hosted at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX. This course made its PGA Tour debut in this event last year so this will be only the second year in which we’ll see the top pros tee it up on this course, although some Korn Ferry Tour events have been held here in years past. For the most part, course history should only factor minimally into overall DFS decision-making this week.

This will be a full-field event featuring 156 golfers where the top 65 players (including ties) on the leaderboard after 36 holes will make it past the cut line and advance into weekend play. This is the strongest field we’ve seen in a normal stroke play event since the RBC Heritage was played four weeks ago. A quartet of top 10 ranked players in the world is in attendance, including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler who will be making his first start since winning the green jacket five weeks ago. Overall, nine of the top 20 and 44 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world are on site and ready to tee it up. This is the final chance for the top golfers to tune up their game ahead of the PGA Championship at Southern Hills CC next week! There is plenty at stake for many, many golfers this week so it should be an exciting event to both watch and build PGA DFS lineups for!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Craig Ranch

Par 72 | 7,468 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

2021 Cut Line: -6

2021 Difficulty Rank: 47th

TPC Craig Ranch is a traditional Par 72 with four Par 5s, and four Par 3s and the course extends just under 7,500 yards. The PGA Tour players tore this course up last year when the cut line reached 6-under and KH Lee went on to win with a 25-under winning score. Some rain did soften things up here in 2021, which could have been responsible for some of the low-scoring average, but that rain also lengthened the course noticeably from how it would have otherwise played in dryer conditions.

Off the tee, golfers will see rolling fairways that are above average in width and feature bouncy Zoysia grass. Light manageable rough, some trees, and some bunkers border many of these fairways which are mostly straight instead of doglegged. Water hazards, which are generally smaller bodies of water like streams and creeks instead of ponds and lakes, will technically come into play on about 14 of the holes. Ultimately, that water should not play a major factor outside of a few holes, primarily down the closing stretch on the back nine. Golfers would have to be either very unlucky or very wayward out of the tee box to put their ball into the drink more than once or twice the entire week, so accuracy off the tee shouldn’t be overly vital.

None of the Par 5s extend more than 570 yards so those four holes will provide the best birdie opportunities and will be reachable in two shots by much of the field. In 2021, the Par 5s represented four of the five easiest holes on the course so golfers must score low on those holes if they wish to truly contend. Longer hitters could have an edge on the Par 4s as six will measure in at over 450 yards. The 492-yard Par 4, 16th hole stands out as the toughest challenge of the week and it played as the most difficult hole on the course last season. Long iron accuracy will be vital as well with plenty of approach shots coming from a distance of 200+ yards to the pin. The bentgrass greens are above average in size and should produce a high GIR percentage (wind permitting), and they are set to run at moderate speeds of around 11.5 on the stimpmeter. Targeting golfers who generally roll it well on bentgrass greens is never a bad idea, especially when there are so few course defenses to contend with elsewhere. As long as the winds don’t kick up too much, golfers should be able to score with relative ease at TPC Craig Ranch once again this season.

Overall, I’ll be keeping my targeted key stats very straightforward this week. I’ll be looking for strong ball strikers with lengthy drivers being a bonus, guys with accurate long irons, proficient Par 4/Par 5 scorers, and positive bentgrass putting splits. Let’s get one final PGA DFS tune-up in ourselves before the PGA Championship comes at us next week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temps & Rain: It’s Texas in mid-May so it’s gonna get warm out there -- mostly in the 80s during the day with some stretches of 90+ degrees. Unlike last season, no rain is to be expected at any point this week.

Thursday: Winds around 10 mph much of the morning with no significant gusts. Around 1:00 pm, sustained winds pick up to about 10-15 mph with the potential for 20 mph gusts.

Friday: Calm in the morning with ~5 mph winds, perhaps a touch stronger at times. Once again, around 1:00 pm, winds are expected to pick up but only to about 10-12 mph sustained with 15 mph gusts.

Weekend: Saturday looks mostly calm apart from the early morning. Sunday could see some 10-15 mph sustained winds with 20+ mph gusts at times. Overall, nothing too crazy but it will be worth checking out the most up-to-date forecast if you’re playing single-round DFS contests over the weekend.

Verdict: The Thursday afternoon wave may draw the strongest winds of the first two rounds but, realistically, the second day is not looking all too different. Perhaps if you’re right on the fence between two golfers who happen to play in different waves, then maybe side with the guy who has the AM/PM draw. Other than that, pending any drastic changes, the weather should not impact any full event DFS decision making. However, for first-round leader bets and showdown contests, I would lean towards the early tee times as of now.

AT&T Byron Nelson Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 25%

    > Emphasis on Driving Distance | 5%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

5. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

AT&T Byron Nelson Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $10.9k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 10/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 2nd BoB%, 4th P5 BoB%

Big Scottie Scheffler leads the way as the highest-priced golfer in the field this week, but you could argue that perhaps he is a tad underpriced. I mean, the 2022 Masters champ has three wins in his last five starts along with a T-7 mixed in there. As you can tell by his top three key stat trends, scoring is what he does best. Expect Scheffler to put that on display at TPC Craig Ranch which, by all indications, should be a complete birdiefest much like last year. Scheffler grew up and attended college in the state of Texas, so he should feel right at home on this sort of golf course.

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 12/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st BoB%, 1st P4 AVG, 2nd SG: BS

With world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler costing only $200-$300 more than Thomas, depending on your DFS site of choice, perhaps he will fly slightly under the radar this week. Probably not by much because, let’s be honest, Justin Thomas has had an excellent season by all means. The only thing he has failed to do is win. But he has made 10-of-10 cuts in stroke play events, and he hasn’t even come close to missing any of those cuts with a T-35 being his worst finish. His current streak of 19 consecutive made cuts ranks first among all players on the PGA Tour. As far as long-term form goes, no one is besting JT who is averaging an incredible 14th place finish across his last 10 starts. Thomas is almost always going to post some of the best ball striking numbers week in and week out. Usually, his success tends to fall on how well he does with the putter. Fortunately, bentgrass greens have provided Thomas with his best putting surface splits so that elusive victory could certainly be in the cards for him this week.

Will Zalatoris | DK: $9.4k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: BS, 3rd Prox. 200+ yards, 12th Driving Distance

Willy Z is another guy who has local Texan ties and he actually grew up regularly playing TPC Craig Ranch and lives not too far away. In a week where less than half the field competed in this event last year, where this course made its PGA Tour debut, having any sort of additional course knowledge and experience can go a long way. Zalatoris notched a solid 17th place finish at last year’s AT&T Byron Nelson and he enters this week having posted three top-6 finishes within his last six starts. Statistically, he ranks out as the best ball striker in the field, he has a big driver, and his long irons are some of the best in the game right now. The main downfall for Zalatoris is his streaky putter. He’s 127th in this field in SG: Putting (Bentgrass). But since his tee to green game is so strong, he’ll simply need to stay about even to the field in putting to post another strong result. And if he happens to gain two or three strokes… he’s likely in contention for the win come Sunday.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Dustin Johnson | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 20/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #17

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st Prox. 200+ Yards, 8th SG: Putt (Bent), 12th BoB%

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11k

Odds: 25/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd P5 BoB%, 4th BoB%, 4th Prox. 200+ Yards

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Talor Gooch | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 45/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #16

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th BoB%, 5th P5 BoB%, 14th P4 AVG

Perhaps the two missed cuts within his last four standard stroke play starts will scare some people away from Gooch but I’d say maybe all it should do is knock him out of cash game consideration. Gooch still came away with a sharp T-14 at The Masters as well as a T-7 at the API. His raw scoring upside is excellent and he has already shown winning upside this season when he emerged victorious at the RSM Classic. Gooch can gain momentum quickly and, as long as he makes it into the weekend, he’s almost always going to finish somewhere in the top 30 with great potential to land more in the top 15 range. He finished T-39 in this event last season but has improved drastically as a professional in the year since then.

Adam Hadwin | DK: $8k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #12

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 15th P5 BoB%, 16th P4 AVG, 21st BoB%

Hadwin has been incredibly reliable this season having made 12-of-15 cuts. And not only is he making cuts, but he is also flashing upside and has three top 10s within his last four events. Hadwin’s game is just in a nice, well-rounded spot right now and aside from a missed cut at The Genesis, he has finished T-26 or better in every one of his starts dating back to early February. He is not the longest hitter off the tee (91st in Driving Distance) but he hits it far enough to compete at this course. Given how solid his irons are right now and how well he can roll it on bentgrass greens, he should continue to thrive at TPC Craig Ranch this week.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #8

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th BoB%, 9th P5 BoB%, 10th Prox. 200+ Yards

McNealy has been one of the most reliable cut makers on the PGA Tour and has made 13-of-14 cuts (92.9%) this season. While it didn’t make it in as one of his top three key stat trends listed above, McNealy is also a rock-solid ball striker who ranks 18th in the field in that department. He can hit it fairly long (294.6 yards/drive) but does struggle with fairway accuracy. Fortunately, the fairways at TPC Craig Ranch are both straighter and wider than most PGA Tour venues. Even when a golfer does miss the short grass, as long as they don't land in one of the water hazards or get plugged into a bunker, their second shot will typically be in a manageable lie due to the lighter rough surrounding the fairways. McNealy’s best irons are also the ones that will need to be on display the most at TPC Craig Ranch, in that 200+ yard range. He’s one of the top birdie and Par 5 scorers in this field as well -- shooting low on those four Par 5s will be an absolute must at this course. McNealy only has a couple of top 10s this season with most of his finishes coming in the 20-40 range, but I dig how well this course should fit his game. Expect a strong finish out of him this week.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Si Woo Kim | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #21

Key Stats Only Rank: #29

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 11th P5 BoB%, 29th BoB%, 34th SG: BS

Mito Pereira | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #23

Key Stats Only Rank: #32

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd P4 AVG, 5th SG: BS, 42nd Prox. 200+ Yards

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Kurt Kitayama | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #30

Key Stats Only Rank: #36

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd Prox. 200+ Yards, 16th SG: BS, 33rd Driving Distance

In regards to short-term form, not many golfers in this field have been hitting it as well as Kitayama has been. En route to a T-2 finish at the Mexico Open, Kitayama ranked 10th in the field in SG: Tee to Green. Last week, his +10.29 SG: T2G ranked second and most of that stemmed from pure ball striking (SG: OTT + SG: App). Those two high-quality performances came in the last two weeks so this isn’t a scenario where a lesser-known golfer posted a couple of strong results and then took a month or two off. So we’ll look for Kitayama to stay red hot at a course that should suit his game

CT Pan | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #27

Key Stats Only Rank: #46

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 35th SG: BS, 49th P4 AVG, 52nd Prox. 200+ Yards

CT Pan isn’t going to ‘wow’ anyone on paper but he has simply been playing quality golf and some sharp ball striking has resulted in him sticking around and playing during the weekend for most of this season. He has made 12-of- 16 (75%) cuts in standard stroke play events, including seven made cuts in his last eight starts. His only missed cut in that eight-event stretch, which dates back to mid-February, came at The PLAYERS where Pan, unfortunately, had the poor weather draw that week. He enters this week coming off of a nice T-15 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship where he gained strokes in all four major categories (OTT, App, ATG, Putting). His +7.03 SG: Tee to Green last week also represented a season high. Pan checks in as a nice, dependable golfer with some very affordable DFS salaries next to his name.

Sahith Theegala | DK: $7.1k, FD: $9k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #51

Key Stats Only Rank: #31

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 48th BoB%, 49th P4 AVG, 53rd SG: BS

Theegala is a borderline cash game play for me but I’d much prefer him in GPPs because his game is still a tad volatile. He does enter with made cuts in his last five starts, including a T-7 at the Valspar and a T-24 at the Mexico Open two weeks ago. Overall, Theegala has made 15-of-19 (78.9%) cuts on the season and has displayed some very nice tee to green performances. Unfortunately, his putter can cause rounds to go south in a hurry and he currently checks in at 127th in this field in SG: Putting (Bentgrass). But if he continues to pick up strokes off the tee and on approach while simply having a neutral putter, then a top 25-ish finish would be quite doable for Theegala in this strong-but-not-elite field.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Patton Kizzire | DK: $7.1k, FD: $9k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #19

Key Stats Only Rank: #25

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 25th BoB%, 30th P4 AVG, 31st P5 BoB%

Hudson Swafford | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #24

Key Stats Only Rank: #24

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th BoB%, 29th SG: BS, 34th P5 BoB%

AT&T Byron Nelson Bets

For anyone interested, I'll be posting my final betting card for the AT&T Byron Nelson over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 8-9 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I'll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some Hail Mary wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well. Almost hit on Keegan Bradley (+3300) last week! Ahh, so close.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!