By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour stays in California for the third straight week as golfers get set to tee off at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am! This can be a bit of a frustrating event for both fans and players, and we’ve seen many top golfers opt to skip out on this tournament despite it's popular association with the PGA Tour. The main reasons are, since it’s a Pro-Am, each pro will have an amateur golfer paired with them and will play in groups of four. This results in the rounds being very slow, lasting upwards of eight hours. This event is also played on three separate courses, which some golfers are averse to, and Shot Link/Shot Tracker data is only available on one of them: Pebble Beach Golf Links, which is where the majority of TV coverage will stick to as well. The good news is that this will be the final event of the season where multiple courses are in play! Also expect a heavy dose of celebrity interviews throughout the broadcast this week. This is something many golf fans, myself included, could not care less about.

Anyhow, I won’t gripe too much. This event can certainly be a fun one to watch and the stellar views at Pebble Beach are hard to beat. Looking at the 156-player field, we have a decent but not overly strong set of golfers to choose from. Only four of the world’s top 25 golfers, and 27 of the top 100, have elected to make the trip to Pebble Beach this year. But there are plenty of recognizable names on site, headlined by golfers like Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, and Jason Day. You’ll also see some other famous athletes and celebrities make appearances this week such as Josh Allen, Mookie Betts, Larry Fitzgerald, Bill Murray, Don Cheadle, and many others. Just like at The American Express tournament from a couple weeks ago, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will have a three course rotation with a 54-hole cut coming after Saturday’s round where the top 60 golfers (including ties) will go on to play the final Sunday round (note the smaller than usual amount of golfers that will make the cut this week, normally it's the top 65 + ties).

The Course Preview ⛳

Last season, due to COVID protocols, there were no amateurs in this field. As a result, the PGA took away the Monterey Peninsula CC course out of the rotation and adjusted the cut line to come after the more typical 36 holes played as opposed to 54 holes. This year, the tournament will revert back to its traditional Pro-Am format with all three courses and a 54-hole cut back in play.

Pebble Beach Golf Links (PBGL)

Par: 72

Yardage: 6,816

Greens: Poa

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 29th, 8th, 12th, 16th, 26th

Pebble Beach GL is a short Par 72 which stretches just over 6,800 yards. The course’s coastal setup provides some of the best views of any track on Tour but it also brings in the potential for impactful wind conditions -- though, it is looking as if the winds will be non-problematic this week (more on that below). The fairways are wider than Tour average and the preferred landing zones will be protected by various hazards. Without amateurs in the field last year, the rough was grown out a bit and was thicker in order to provide a more difficult challenge. Now that the amateurs are back in the mix, expect the rough to be shorter and quite manageable. Many golfers this week will elect to leave their driver in the bag in an attempt to simply keep their ball in the fairway and set themselves up for a more favorable approach shot. As a result, this course has one of the highest hit fairway percentages on the PGA Tour -- routinely the field will hit 70+% of fairways at PBGL (75.3% Driving Accuracy in 2021). This is definitely considered a “second shot course” as golfers will be looking to target the smallest green complexes on the PGA Tour. These greens don’t feature much slope or undulation, necessarily, but they do not take up much real estate and average only about 3,500 square feet; this means pinpoint iron play will be crucial. The poa annua grass greens shouldn’t run overly fast (around 10-11 on the stimpmeter) but we’ll see some deceptive and bumpy putts, especially later in the day since poa grass grows quickly in comparison to other grass types used on putting surfaces. Look for around the green play to be crucial here as well since every golfer is inevitably going to miss landing their approach shots on some of those tiny greens.

Spyglass Hill Golf Club (SHGC)

Par: 72

Yardage: 7,035

Greens: Poa

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 11th, 5th, 20th, 22nd, 20th

Spyglass Hill GC is another Par 72 which checks in at just over 7,000 yards in length. The first five holes on the front nine sit along the coastline but, after that, every hole moves more inland. More trees are in play here than on PBGL and the fairways are about average in width. The greens are also a bit larger than PBGL, but are still small by PGA Tour standards, and they should carry a bit more slope and undulation. The putting surface will also consist of poa annua grass. In years past, Spyglass Hill GC and Pebble Beach Golf Links have played quite similar to each other in terms of difficulty. Though, in the last two seasons, Spyglass Hill GC has been one of the more difficult courses on the entire PGA circuit ranking as the 11th most difficult course in 2021 and the 5th most difficult course in 2020! It is worth noting, when wind isn’t much of a factor like it has been in the last couple seasons, both SHGC and PBGL should be expected to play noticeably easier.

Monterey Peninsula Country Club (MPCC)

Par: 71

Yardage: 6,958

Greens: Poa

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: N/A, 30th, 22nd, 38th, 19th

Finally, we have the Monterey Peninsula CC which, like Pebble Beach GL, it also comes in at under 7,000 yards in scorecard length. However, MPCC will play as a Par 71, unlike the other two courses which are set up as Par 72s. This course will almost certainly play as the easiest of the three so, if you’re someone who plays single round DFS contests or you make first round leader bets, this is likely the course where you’ll want to target golfers across the initial three rounds. Tee times and course assignments by round will be linked in the section below. MPCC features sweeping fairways which are wide and possess limited elevation changes. Golfers will see the ocean while playing on this course but, unlike the other two courses, the ocean will never come into play on any hole. The biggest course defense at Monterey Peninsula CC will be those tricky poa greens which will also be on the smaller side at about 5,000 square feet, on average.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: Cool and comfortable temps in the 50s all week with no significant threat of rain in sight.

Wind: Hardly a factor at all as winds are not expected to crack double digit speeds at any point this week.

Verdict: Conditions are looking nearly ideal for this tournament which could certainly lead to a good deal of scoring. There is no wave advantage to be had either.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tee Times & Course Assignments

(Sort by round if necessary)

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa) | 15%

5. Par 4 Average | 10%

6. Par 5 Average | 5%

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Update: Daniel Berger withdrew after this article was posted.

Daniel Berger | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 12/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #2

There are two golfers in this field who are separated into their own elite tier above the rest of this Pebble Beach Pro-Am field: Patrick Cantlay ($11.2k/$12.3k) and Daniel Berger. You really cannot go wrong spending up on either guy and with every golfer guaranteed at least three rounds this week, it certainly makes plenty of sense to use one (perhaps both in super aggressive builds) as an anchor in ‘stars & scrubs’ lineup builds. Berger’s irons are as sharp and consistent as anyone else’s on the PGA Tour. He has gained over one full stroke on approach in 13 consecutive starts and checks in 1st overall in the field in SG: Approach this week. Berger is the defending champion here at Pebble Beach and he also has a T-5 and T-10 in his other two appearances in this tournament. Given the fact that Will Zalatoris was forced to withdraw from this event due to a positive COVID test, there is some built-in value with Berger on DraftKings considering Willy Z was originally the second-most expensive golfer in the field, just ahead of Berger. If Zalatoris was never in this field to begin with, Berger would undoubtedly be $200-$400 more expensive.

Jason Day | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 20/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #28

Overall Model Rank: #13

Day has struggled with his form and consistency for the better part of the last two years but one place he has never had any issues throughout his entire career is here at Pebble Beach. Day’s track record here is absolutely dominant. Not only has he made 13-of-13 cuts here, Day has finished T-7 or better in five straight seasons and no worse than T-11 over the last seven years. It also cannot be overlooked that he flashed some nice form during last week’s Farmers Insurance Open where he gained strokes in every tee to green category and came away with a T-3 finish. Day excels on poa greens and despite some volatility in his long term form (which is keeping him just barely off of my radar for cash game formats), you can never rule him out of consideration when Pebble Beach week rolls around.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Overall Model Rank: #3

McNealy was in winning contention at the Farmers last week before a final round of 75 derailed his surge up the leaderboard. Nonetheless, McNealy turned in a respectable T-30 result and gained strokes against the field for his eighth consecutive start. He also knocked in a beaut of an ace (shown below). McNealy is from California and grew up playing Pebble Beach quite a bit. You can clearly see his affinity for this course by looking at his results from his two previous starts here as a PGA professional: 2nd in 2021, T-5 in 2020. McNealy also ranks 2nd in the field in strokes gained putting on poa greens over his last 24 rounds. He’s showing off a very well-rounded game right now and if his putter gets hot on these greens, I would not rule him out of victory contention for the third consecutive year at Pebble Beach.

Mid-Priced Targets

Christian Bezuidenhout | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Overall Model Rank: #20

Bezuidenhout is a super talented golfer but he’s also tricky to “get right” when it comes to figuring out when to invest in him in DFS. This may be a week where you’ll want some Bezuidenhout shares. If it wasn’t for his lack of course history (this will be his first appearance at Pebble Beach), he would rank closer towards the top 10 in my personal model. Across his last 34 worldwide starts spanning multiple professional tours and dating back to November 2020, Bezuidenhout has only a single missed cut (Houston Open). He’s playing extremely well with his irons (6th in SG: App) and is as solid of a putter as just about any other golfer in this field.

Mito Pereira | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #24

After dominating the Korn Ferry Tour over the last couple years, Pereira’s career as a PGA Tour professional is still in its infancy but he has certainly made his presence felt early on. In 13 PGA starts, he has made 10 cuts to go along with three finishes of T-6 or better. He also added an impressive T-4 finish to his resume at the Men’s Olympic Golf Competition this past summer. When Pereira has made it past the cut line, his absolute worst finish on the PGA Tour has been a T-40 so you have to feel good about his floor assuming he makes that 54-hole cut this week. In this field, only Daniel Berger ranks ahead of Periera in terms of SG: Approach and his +2.64 SG: Putting last week (also on poa greens) at the Farmers Insurance Open ranked 19th in the field. If Pereira can simply tidy up his play around the greens (84th in SG: ATG) he’ll have a legitimate shot at another top 10 result this week. Pereira may be a PGA Tour rookie but do not be surprised if he notches his first career win this season. The potential is there in droves with this 26-year-old Chilean sharpshooter.

Matt Kuchar | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #35

Overall Model Rank: #16

Kuchar’s prime may be behind him but you can bet that he still owns the tools necessary to compete at a high level against PGA talent, especially when a shorter course comes into play like Pebble Beach GL (+ the Spyglass & Monterey courses). Kuch has made 5-of-5 cuts on the young 2021-22 season, including a T-7 at the Sony Open in his last outing three weeks ago. His iron game is not as sharp as it could be (90th in SG: App) but he has made up ground thanks to an impeccable short game (4th in SG: ATG, 2nd in Scrambling, 10th in Sand Save%) while also rolling it well with the flat stick (14th in SG: Putting Overall). Kuchar hits a ton of fairways and has also been getting off to hot starts in tournaments this season, ranking 3rd in scoring average before the cut. If he manages to find a bit more form with his irons and closes out strong in the final round on Sunday, we could see Kuchar’s recent resurgence continue with another strong finish. I’d expect him to be one of the most popular golfers out of the mid-range this week but fading him is hard to justify.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Wyndham Clark | DK: $7k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #82

Overall Model Rank: #42

Clark made an appearance in last week’s newsletter because his bomber play style was such a good fit for Torrey Pines (South). While we’re not necessarily looking for bombers at Pebble Beach this week, I believe Clark still deserves some GPP consideration for one major reason: his putter. Clark’s T-56 at the Farmers Insurance Open last week was nothing to write home about, but his massive +6.71 SG: Putting on those poa greens ranked 1st in the entire field. Unfortunately, Clark lost -2.45 SG: App and -2.87 SG: ATG which negated much of those strokes he gained with the flat stick. His inconsistency in those two key categories will keep him off my radar for cash games even though he has made 7-of-8 cuts this season. But if he can simply manage to stay around even to the field in strokes gained on approach and around the green, his putter can carry him to a strong result -- perhaps similar to his performance which led to a T-18 the last time he teed it up here at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am two years ago.

Satoshi Kodaira | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #30

Kodaira is an intriguing value play this week for a couple reasons; one, his form is rapidly trending up and two, he profiles as an excellent course fit (as you may be able to tell by his “key stats” ranking of 4th in this field). The last time we saw Kodaira in action, he notched a T-12 at the Sony Open three weeks ago. In that event, Kodaira gained strokes in every major category (off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting) including +4.00 SG: Approach. Prior to the Sony Open, Kodaira’s previous three starts came on the Japan Golf Tour where he turned in finishes of T-17, T-5, and T-10. Obviously, there is a notable increase in talent going from the JGT to the PGA Tour, but this isn't exactly the most talent-rich field. Kodaira is not a long hitter but, fortunately, his lack of distance will not be a negative on these shorter courses which he’ll play on this week. He does have fewer measured rounds than most other golfers in the field so his stats should be viewed with that in mind. Still, Kodaira most notable stat rankings include 3rd in SG: App, 3rd in SG: Putting (Poa), and 18th in P4 AVG. Kodaira hasn’t made the cut in either of his two appearances in this tournament but his form appears to be in much better shape than it was heading into this event the last couple years -- he also missed the cut on the number last year so it wasn’t as if he played terribly. Kodaira makes for a sharp value target at sub-10% ownership in GPPs this week.

Austin Smotherman | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #74

Overall Model Rank: #89

There is certainly a high amount of recency bias with this pick and he’s a much more intriguing target on DraftKings as opposed to FanDuel due to price. But Smotherman’s T-11 finish in last week’s event was extremely impressive due in large part to the +5.94 strokes gained on approach, which ranked second among all players in the tournament behind only Will Zalatoris. He also picked up +1.47 strokes putting, which is another plus as golfers head into another week of rolling it on some tricky poa greens. Smotherman also ranks 3rd in the field in proximity, which will come in handy when targeting those extremely small green complexes on Pebble Beach GL. Smotherman’s odds of failing are also quite high as he has missed 3-of-6 PGA cuts since coming over from the Korn Ferry Tour. But if he continues to stay dialed in with those irons for a second consecutive week, look out! You also have to like the fact that he’ll be guaranteed three rounds of golf, which mitigates some downside associated with many golfers in this low-end salary range.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-End Range:

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12.3k | Cash & GPP

As much as I love Berger, Cantlay is still going to be the man to beat in this field. He led in SG: T2G in last year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am en route to a T-3 finish.

Cameron Tringale | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.2k | Cash & GPP

He’s gone from a golfer you would just hope makes the cut and maybe turn in a top 30-ish finish to a player who is now routinely finding himself in contention on Sundays. His T-3 finish last week was his third finish of T-7 or better in his last five starts and he finished T-7 in this event last season. His well-rounded game should obviously work well here.

Seamus Power | DK: $9.4k, FD: $11.1k | GPP Preferred

The only thing keeping Power a bit off of cash consideration (for me) is his mediocre course history and the simple fact that other guys in this high-end range feel safer. But, no doubt, he’s in the best form of his career and Power has been a lethal DFS asset, ranking 2nd only to Patrick Cantlay in terms of average FPTS across his last five starts.

Mid-Range:

Aaron Rai | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k | Cash & GPP

Rai is still a relatively unknown talent but his recent success on the PGA Tour has lifted him up to No. 92 in the OWGR. He turned in a complete performance last week as one of the few golfers in the field to gain strokes in every major category on his way to recording a T-6 finish. Rai’s ball striking has never really been in doubt, but if he continues to show promise with his short game, expect him to contend on a regular basis. He has now posted four top 20s in his last six PGA starts.

Michael Thompson | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9k | GPP Preferred

He was deadly around the greens last week where he led the field gaining +5.20 strokes. The irons looked pretty solid as well (+1.93 SG: App), he just needs to dial it in with the putter to push for another top 10 finish.

Min Woo Lee | DK: $7.7k, FD: $10k | GPP Preferred

Lee is a golfer who should fly under the radar this week since he hasn’t competed too often on the PGA Tour (and missed the cut when he played here in 2021). However, he’s been lighting it up on the DP World Tour and has four top 10 finishes in his last six worldwide starts.

Value Range & Punts

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k | GPP Preferred

His game clearly translates well here based on his finishes of T-16 and T-11 at Pebble Beach the last couple years. The two most common approach distances this week will be from 100-125 yards and 200+ yards -- those happen to be two of NeSmith’s best ranges.

Sahith Theegala | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k | GPP Preferred

Theegala brings a ton of raw talent to the table and has improved his finishing position over his last four starts: MC, T-48, T-33, T-25 (last week). I like his chances of 10x value (or better) this week.

Scott Stallings | DK: $7.1k, FD: $9.2k | GPP Preferred

Better bargain on DK. Stallings is far from a consistent golfer, but he’s made the cut at Pebble Beach in four of his last five trips while turning in impressive finishes of T-30, T-3, T-7, and T-14. He’s middle-of-the-pack on the stat sheet (#71 in key stats rank) but his solid course history puts him in play as a value option.

Jim Knous | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | GPP Preferred

This is a complete GPP Hail Mary but Knous has made three of his last four cuts on the PGA Tour, he putts well on poa greens, and he leads this field in SG: ATG. He’s a shorter hitter as well so his lack of distance won’t be a major detractor this week either.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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