Looking ahead at some DFS targets for the BMW Championship!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

We’ve reached the second week of the PGA playoffs and the penultimate event of the season! The top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings have qualified to tee it up for the BMW Championship held at Wilmington Country Club in Wilmington, Delaware -- about 30 miles west of Philadelphia. And a somewhat fun fact: this event will mark the first-ever PGA tournament played in the state of Delaware! There will be no cut this week so, pending a late withdrawal or disqualification, every golfer will play all four rounds. After this playoff event, only the top 30 players in the FEC standings will survive to compete in the TOUR Championship at East Lake GC next week. Whoever is fortunate enough to land atop the FEC standings after that will receive a massive $18 million payday. A new sort of seeding structure was implemented three years ago for the TOUR Championship which will give a huge opening round stroke advantage to the higher seeds, so this is the final week that contenders can rally for one final push up the leaderboard. Links to the complete set of playoff rules and current FedEx Cup standings are linked below.

FedEx Cup Rules

FedEx Cup Standings

The Course Preview ⛳

Wilmington Country Club (South)

Par 71 | 7,534 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

First Tee: Thursday, August 18th at 9:10 am ET

The South Course at Wilmington Country Club will be making its debut appearance on the PGA Tour so if you’re hoping to rely on any sort of course history, you’ll be out of luck! This course was designed in 1959 by Robert Trent Jones Sr. Last year, the course underwent some renovations made by Andrew Green to ensure that this track would pose a challenge for the world’s most elite golfers.

The South Course at Wilmington Country Club is quite a lengthy track. Measuring in at over 7,500 yards on the scorecard, it ranks as the sixth-longest course on the PGA Tour circuit. This is a standard Par 71 setup so there will be three Par 5s, four Par 3s, and eleven Par 4s. As you can imagine given the overall scorecard length, some of these holes are extremely long. Two of the Par 5s check in at over 630 yards, three of the Par 3s are 200+ yards, and there are three daunting Par 4s that measure at least 490 yards.

The wide fairways should be relatively easy to hit but they do begin to narrow around the 300-yard mark. Many of the 91 bunkers on this course are also placed around that area so being aggressive off the tee will come with its risks. Water will play a factor on four holes as well. Surrounding the fairways will be a gnarly mixture of bluegrass and fescue rough which will measure four inches thick. Many believe the rough will be what acts as the primary course defense this week.

The bentgrass green complexes at Wilmington CC are massive with an average surface area of 8,100 square feet, making them the second-largest greens on the PGA Tour this season. Given their size, they will be easy to hit but putting on them may be a whole different challenge. Golfers can expect these greens to run fast, around 12 to 13 on the stimpmeter. There will also be plenty of undulation combined with back-to-front or side-to-side slope which will invoke trickier reads.

So, overall, the feeling is that this course could provide a strong challenge for golfers but it’s tough to truly say for certain since we’ve never seen the pros actually compete here. While many of those longer holes are set up to make scoring more difficult, there are also plenty of straightforward holes that golfers will have a good chance to score on -- primarily on the two sub-400 yard Par 4s, the six 400-450 yard Par 4s, and the 582 yard Par 5.

Quick Strategy Note

With only 68 golfers in the field and no cut in play, this newsletter will be formatted a bit differently this week. I’ll forego specifying cash/GPP plays and I also won’t be splitting up golfers by salary range. I always feel that more of a GPP-centric approach is ideal for no-cut events, especially when the field is reduced down to this sort of size.

Also, remember that the best way to have a unique lineup in tournaments is to leave a few hundred dollars on the table. I can’t recall the exact source, but I’ve read an analysis of large MME PGA tournaments in the past which mentioned (roughly) 95% of entries use at least $49.7k (DK)/$59.6k (FD). The vast majority of the time, optimal lineups won’t use 100% of the allotted salary so increase your chances of creating a non-duplicated entry by leaving $300+ on the table in some lineups this week! If you’re used to hand-building lineups and find yourself constantly using up 98-100% of your budget, it may seem a bit uncomfortable to take this approach. However, most of these golfers have very similar upside and winning odds, so DFS salaries which differ by only a few hundred dollars just ends up being arbitrary, particularly for this week.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

I’ll keep this section short and sweet. As you can tell by the weather screenshots below, there is no need to delve into the weather too much, especially since there is no cut to worry about. Conditions are nearly identical for all four rounds this week and whatever wind there will be, it’s going to be very manageable to deal with.

BMW Championship Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Average | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

6. Three-Putt Avoidance | 10%

7. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

BMW Championship Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the key stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

Golfers to Consider

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 14/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #6

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st BoB%, 1st P4 AVG, 4th SG: App

JT regained some form last week en route to a T-13 finish. His +8.27 SG: Tee to Green ranked third in the field but losing -2.41 strokes with the putter kept him from landing inside the top 10. The putter always seems to be the concern with him but, fortunately, bentgrass greens provide his best putting splits (16th in SG: Putting - Bent). Thomas has also excelled historically in these no-cut events when the level of competition is at its highest. In seven BMW Championship starts, he has averaged a 21st place finish.

Tony Finau | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11k

Odds: 14/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th P4 AVG, 6th SG: App, 12th SG: OTT

Finau had one of his worst ball-striking performances in quite some time at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, and yet he still managed to land a T-5 finish. A bad week of ball striking still resulted in Finau gaining nearly three strokes on the field. His putter has been red hot and if he bounces back a bit with his ball striking, he’ll be looking to contend for a win for the third time in his last four starts.

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 16/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #12

Overall Model Rank: #9

Key Stats Only Rank: #23

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th SG; OTT, 9th P5 AVG, 19th SG: App

Fitzpatrick continues to play all-around solid golf and he’s coming off of another week where he gained strokes in all four categories: +3.59 SG: OTT, +0.86 SG: App, +1.94 SG: ATG, +1.49 SG: Putting. His performance allowed him to cruise to his fifth top-five finish in his last eight starts. Fitzpatrick leads the field in average finishing position over his last five starts and he’s simply a touch too cheap in DFS this week. He’ll be a major threat to win if he gets dialed in with his irons.

Sungjae Im | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 25/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #11

Overall Model Rank: #10

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th P4 AVG, 9th SG: OTT, 12th Prox. From 200+ Yards

Im’s driver is his best weapon right now as he leads all players in this field in SG: OTT over the last 16 rounds. His long irons are on point as well, so he’s someone who should flourish on this specific course. Im led the field with +4.73 SG: OTT last week and has now linked together finishes of 12th, T-2, and T-2 in his last three starts.

Cameron Young | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 28/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #13

Overall Model Rank: #11

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: OTT, 3rd P4 AVG, 5th BoB%

Were it not for a miserable week putting last week, Young could have easily been in contention on Sunday. He lost a career-worst -5.5 strokes putting yet his +8.36 SG: T2G ranked second in the field behind only eventual winner Will Zalatoris. Young is an absolute monster with the driver and he should be able to thrive on many of the long hole layouts at Wilmington CC… he just has to prioritize avoiding that gnarly rough!

Cam Davis | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 75/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #51

Overall Model Rank: #16

Key Stats Only Rank: #30

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th 3-Putt Avd., 19th Prox. From 200+ Yards, 24th BoB%

It’s difficult to overlook Davis given the run he’s on. His T-13 at TPC Southwind last week marked his fifth consecutive finish of T-16 or better. He has gained strokes on approach in all five of those events and, if that trend continues, he’ll likely push for another great finish at Wilmington CC. He’s a long driver of the golf ball, though driving accuracy is not his strong suit. If he finds a decent amount of fairways, he’ll no doubt emerge as a great value pick once again.

Emiliano Grillo | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 125/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #55

Overall Model Rank: #33

Key Stats Only Rank: #32

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th Prox. From 200+ Yards, 15th SG: OTT, 22nd 3-Putt Avd.

Grillo has routinely stood out as a high-level ball striker but now he is getting things going with the flat stick. He has gained strokes putting in four consecutive starts and has a pair of runner-up finishes to show for it. His best putting splits have come on bentgrass greens and his strong three-putt avoidance should help him out on these large greens as well.

Taylor Moore | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 140/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #62

Overall Model Rank: #36

Key Stats Only Rank: #52

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 29th P4 AVG, 31st BoB%, 33rd SG: OTT

Moore’s ball striking continues to be the key to his recent success that has led to him producing five finishes of T-31 or better within his last six starts. In this field, Moore has averaged the fifth-most fantasy points per start over his last five events and even just a neutral week with the short game should result in him paying off these modest DFS salaries.

Trey Mullinax | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 150/1 | FedEx Cup Rank: #40

Overall Model Rank: #18

Key Stats Only Rank: #31

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 17th 3-Putt Avd., 19th BoB%, 21st SG: OTT

There’s no way Mullinax should only be $200 above the stone minimum on DraftKings, so I feel we have to look here for value -- and I don’t hate him for $8,600 on FanDuel either. Mullinax has successfully gained strokes on approach in each of his last four starts, he’s only five weeks removed from his win at the Barbasol Championship, and if he had a bit more luck with his putter last week (-0.25 strokes putting), he would have likely been in the mix late on Sunday with Zalatoris and Straka. He still posted an impressive T-5 and his game may set up even better on this course. I’d be surprised by another top-five result but, if he avoids the rough, Mullinax has the skill-set to go low this week.

BMW Championship Bets 💸

You'll be able to find my final betting card over on my Twitter. I'll usually post it around 9:00 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I’ll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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