By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

It was a riveting Sunday finish at the PGA Championship as Justin Thomas was able to claw his way to winning another Wanamaker Trophy, this time via a playoff against runner-up Will Zalatoris. A disastrous finish from Mito Pereira had quite the impact on the final outcome but, fortunately, Mito’s career trajectory is only looking up from here.

The PGA Tour now travels back to the Lone Star State to tee it up for the Charles Schwab Challenge which will once again be hosted by Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. Despite this being a week following a Major, there is still quite a talented field in play for this event. Six of the world’s top 10 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings will be on site, along with 42 of the top 100. Even the PGA Championship winner, Justin Thomas, has elected to compete this week following his Major victory. The field will be slimmed down to only 120 total players with the top 65 (including ties) making it past the 36-hole cutline. Golfers will be vying for a share of 500 FedEx Cup points and a piece of an $8.4 million purse with the eventual winner cashing a cool $1.5 million.

The Course Preview ⛳

Colonial Country Club

Par 70 | 7,209 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 18th, 13th, 7th, 20th, 7th

Cutline Last 5 Years: +1, -2, +2, +2, +4

Comp Courses: Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind

Colonial CC is a long-standing staple on the PGA Tour. While the tournament has changed names several times over, this course has been played every year on the PGA circuit for the last 76 years, dating back to 1946. That will make this a great week to weigh course history heavier than usual.

Colonial CC is a shorter Par 70 which stretches 7,200 yards. This is a traditionally styled course that features tree-lined Bermuda grass fairways and small bentgrass greens which will run moderately fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter). Despite being one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour schedule, Colonial CC can often play inside the top 20 in terms of course difficulty year in and year out. The 36-hole cutline fell to 2-under here in 2020 when the field was absolutely loaded -- some may recall that this event marked the ‘return to golf’ following a three-month long break from play due to the COVID pandemic, so nearly every top golfer in the world showed up to compete. But in four of the last five years, the cutline has landed between +1 and +4.

With only two Par 5s in play, efficient scoring on the twelve Par 4s will be imperative. This is a track where precision overrules power, so the bombers won’t necessarily have an advantage and a large portion of the field will opt to go “less than driver” off the tee – not everyone, but many. Pinpoint accuracy and crafty shot shaping are the skill-sets that tend to reign supreme here and an old-school well-rounded “fairways and greens” type play style is generally rewarded. The fairways are narrow and loaded with doglegs so golfers will look to target specific landing zones to give themselves a clearer view of the greens on their approach shots. There are a total of 84 bunkers to contend with and water comes into play on a few holes as well. A sharp mid-iron game is a must as about 45-50% of approach shots will come in the 125-175 yard range. The rough here isn’t a death sentence but it is wiry and can often “snatch” golf balls, causing them to sink to the bottom and produce menacing lies. Combine that with the fact that the greens at Colonial CC are on the smaller side and do possess some moderate undulation, and you’ll see that efficiency around the green play can be quite important as well!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: Plenty of sunshine in the forecast and it’s not looking like rain will play a factor this week. Mornings will be cool, in the 60s and 70s each round. Then the Texas heat kicks in and golfers will be playing in some toasty conditions with temps in the 80s and 90s.

Thursday AM: Sustained winds should stay below 10 mph all morning with gusts hitting 15-20+ mph closer to noon.

Thursday PM: Sustained winds at 10-15 mph with gusts in the mid-20 mph range.

Friday AM: Calm conditions with hardly any wind to speak of. Wind speeds max out at only about 5 mph with basically no gusts.

Friday PM: Nearly identical wind conditions as Friday AM. Nothing to worry about.

Weekend: Winds really kick up and stay more persistent on the weekend. Sustained speeds will be around 15-20 mph for much of the final two rounds with gusts often into the mid-20 mph range and as high as the mid-30s.

Verdict: *If the current forecast holds,* the AM/PM wave could see a noticeable advantage since they’ll avoid the stronger sustained winds and gusts on Thursday afternoon. I doubt it’d be nearly as big of an advantage as what we saw at the PGA Championship where the AM/PM wave averaged two strokes less than the PM/AM wave, but it’ll still be worth considering when building your DFS player pool or if you make first round leader bets.

PGA Championship Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % | 25%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Charles Schwab Challenge Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #12

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th SG: App, 6th BoB%, 9th P4 AVG

Morikawa has not dominated consistently in recent months, but if there is a course where his game should shine, it’s Colonial CC. That’s evidenced by his T-14 finish here last season and his runner-up finish in 2020. We can expect Morikawa, an extremely accurate player off the tee, to find the fairways constantly this week (9th in Good Drive%) and land a ton of greens in regulation (6th in GIR%). His middle irons are elite and, whenever he’s in the fairway, he’ll be capable of throwing darts onto these small greens (2nd in Proximity from the Fairway). If he can manage to pull his short game together, he’ll be one of the guys to beat come Sunday. Morikawa also draws the preferred wave with his early Thursday AM tee time.

Jordan Spieth | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 12/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th P4 AVG, 9th SG: App, 11th BoB%

Whenever this event comes around on the calendar, Jordan Spieth is someone you want to pay attention to. The Dallas, Texas native is the top course horse in this field and he has simply never had a bad showing here, even in seasons where he wasn’t in the best of form heading into the week. In nine starts at Colonial CC, Spieth has never even come close to missing a cut. He has finished worse than T-14 just once here while posting six top 10s, including three runner-ups and a win in 2016. His T-34 at last week’s PGA Championship was nothing spectacular but it just wasn’t his week with the putter. Spieth lost -3.24 strokes putting last week but his +8.53 SG: T2G was good for 13th in the field. Spieth is typically going to be a positive putter on bentgrass greens (34th in SG: Putt - Bent) so I wouldn’t worry too much about the flat stick performance at the PGA Champ. He doesn’t get the preferred weather draw but that’s about the only negative I could think to bring up about him this week.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Justin Thomas | DK: $11k, FD: $12k

Odds: 12/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 1st BoB%, 3rd SG: App

Viktor Hovland | DK: $10k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: App, 3rd BoB%, 9th P4 AVG

Max Homa | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 28/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #18

Key Stats Only Rank: #30

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 11th SG: App, 13th BoB%, 73rd P4 AVG

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 35/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #26

Key Stats Only Rank: #29

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: ATG, 23rd BoB%, 52nd SG: App

It’s been a couple of years since we’ve seen Fleetwood have his game fully together and the results have been showing up. He gained at least +1.31 strokes in every major category (OTT, App, ATG, Putting) at the PGA Championship which helped lead to a sharp T-5 finish. Fleetwood has now finished T-22 or better in six of his last seven starts on the PGA Tour. One major thing knocking him down in my personal model rankings is the fact that he has zero course history at Colonial CC, and course history is a pretty big deal this week. So, that’s the one major risk here. But it isn’t as if this is an overly complex course and many first-timers have found ample success here -- it just helps to know the lay of the land, especially when so many other golfers have been playing this tournament/course for years. But I do like how Colonial CC sets up for Fleetwood. Harbour Town GL (RBC Heritage) is one of the comp courses for Colonial CC, and Fleetwood posted a T-10 performance there about a month-and-a-half ago. Another positive for Fleetwood is his tee time. He’ll be teeing off with the very first group on the back nine on Thursday morning at 7:20 am local time, which means he’ll avoid the worst of the first round winds, assuming the current forecast holds true. I’ll be looking for Fleetwood to keep the momentum rolling in Texas.

Kevin Na | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #11

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 17th BoB%, 20th SG: App, 20th SG: Putt - Bent

Any course that rewards accuracy and a creative short game over pure power and driving distance is often going to set up nicely for Na. With that in mind, it is no surprise that Na has found some major success at Colonial CC over the years. In 14 starts at this course, he has made 12 cuts with five top 10s and a win back in 2019. Na posted a solid T-23 at last week’s PGA Championship where, aside from some struggles off the tee (-3.93 SG: OTT), he played exceptionally well. He ranked 4th in the field in short game strokes gained (+4.52 SG: ATG, +3.51 SG: Putt) and he also played well with his irons (+3.20 SG: App). Beyond looking at only last week, Na has finished T-26 or better in three of his last four starts. Some of Na’s best clubs have been his middle irons and he checks in as the top golfer in the field in terms of proximity from 125-175 yards -- a range that will be extremely common in approach distance shot distribution this week. There is just a lot to like about Na this week, especially given his early Thursday tee time.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Mito Pereira | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #20

Key Stats Only Rank: #17

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd P4 AVG, 6th SG: App, 56th BoB%

Davis Riley | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 45/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #30

Key Stats Only Rank: #28

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th BoB%, 23rd P4 AVG, 59th SG: Putt - Bent

Brian Harman | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 55/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #21

Key Stats Only Rank: #47

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th P4 AVG, 46th SG: Putt - Bent, 49th SG: ATG

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Nate Lashley | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #22

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th P4 AVG, 21st BoB%, 51st SG: App

Besides a missed cut at the RBC Heritage and a second round withdrawal at the Wells Fargo, Lashley has not only been making cuts but competing for high-end finishes. He has posted five finishes of T-18 or better in his last eight starts. Given, many of those finishes came in weak field events like the Mexico Open, Corales Champ, and the Puerto Rico Open. But this field, while very solid, isn’t absolutely loaded top to bottom either, and well over half of the golfers will end up making the cut since this is only a 120-player field. So, I’d expect Lashley to get past this cut line and make a little noise on the weekend, which is all you can ask for given his DFS salaries. In his most recent start at Colonial CC last year, Lashley posted a respectable T-32 finish. He’ll tee off in the preferred AM/PM wave as well.

Kevin Streelman | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #88

Key Stats Only Rank: #96

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 34th SG: ATG, 61st SG: Putt - Bent, 79th P4 AVG

Streelman is not going to rate out well in many models this week but this comes down to just knowing the golfer over looking at the numbers. Courses that will reward the “fairways and greens” play style, which some may call “old man golf,” will be where Streelman can thrive. He’s going to find the fairway more than about any other golfer in the field this week and while his approach numbers have been spotty, at best, this season, he has been at his best with the middle irons. The short game is usually pretty solid for Streelman as well and he has made four of his last five cuts at Colonial CC, including a pair of top 20s -- T-20 in 2021, T-18 in 2017. He sets up as a solid salary saver and also draws a preferred Thursday morning tee time.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #16

Key Stats Only Rank: #34

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th BoB%, 48th SG: App, 51st SG: Putt - Bent

Stewart Cink | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #40

Key Stats Only Rank: #52

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 18th SG: Putt - Bent, 42nd BoB%, 45th SG: App

Austin Smotherman | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 175/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #60

Key Stats Only Rank: #60

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th SG: App, 24th SG: Putt - Bent, 65th BoB%

Charles Schwab Challenge Bets

For anyone interested, I'll be posting my final betting card for the Charles Schwab Challenge over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 8-9 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I'll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!