By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

Much of the golf DFS world put its focus towards the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event which has already teed off today but, for the purposes of this week’s newsletter, we’ll keep our sights set on the alternate event which follows the more familiar four round stroke play format. This means we’re eyeing the Corales Puntacana Championship which will be hosted by the Corales Golf Course down on the island of the Dominican Republic.

Since the majority of golf’s top talent is competing in the WGC-Match Play event, there clearly is not much star power left over for the Corales Championship. Within this 120-player field, only four of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be in attendance. There are still big DFS contests posted for this event so it should certainly be worth giving this one a go, especially if you crackdown on some research and learn a bit more about these lesser-known golfers. The strength of this field may be just above that of a Korn Ferry Tour event, but the rewards are legitimate. Golfers will be looking to grab a share of the 300 FedEx Cup points available in this event, along with a piece of the $3.7 million purse and, perhaps most importantly, full exemption on the PGA Tour through the 2024 season, which is awarded to the eventual winner. Also note that this event will follow the typical cut rule: the top 65 golfers (including ties) after the first two rounds will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Corales Golf Course

Par 72 | 7,640 Yards

Greens: Paspalum

Course Difficulty Last 4 Years: 14th, 30th, 30th, 26th

Cut Line Last 4 Years: +1, -3, -2, -1

Corales GC is a Par 72 setup which extends a bit over 7,600 yards and features four Par 3s and four Par 5s. The extensive course length is a bit deceiving as golf balls will typically fly further in the warm Caribbean climate of the Dominican Republic. The fairways here are wide and situated between light and not overly penalizing rough. There really isn’t any reason *not* to try to “bomb and gouge” this course. Golfers don’t need to be incredibly long off the tee if they want to succeed, but long and somewhat inaccurate drivers simply aren’t punished as much here as they would be at other more demanding PGA venues. Players will still need to contend with bunkers, palm trees, sand dunes, and several water hazards but those course defenses should not be too problematic in the grand scope of things. The greens at Corales GC feature paspalum grass, which is a very uncommon putting surface among PGA Tour courses. However, players have noted that these greens play very soft and can be super receptive, even when they’re being attacked from long approach distances or from shots coming out of the rough. The greens should be set up to run fairly slow once again this year (about 10-11 on the stimpmeter).

Overall, this should not be a difficult course, especially if the winds cooperate. Higher wind speeds can easily be accredited as the primary course defense at Corales GC so if they’re not too problematic, the course is quite ‘gettable’ otherwise. Without ShotLink data or extensive course history, the DFS approach will be fairly simple and straightforward this week. The main priority will be to look for quality ball strikers who are in good form and make plenty of birdies, particularly on Par 5s, as well as guys who possess reliable putters, as this tournament could easily turn into a birdie-fest. Adding a slight favoritism to some of the longer hitters makes sense as well but if a shorter hitter excels in other areas, they should certainly remain within DFS consideration. Graeme McDowell won here a three years ago, so clearly you don’t have to be a bomber to succeed here -- McDowell only averages about 285 yards per drive. This tournament has been on the schedule for four years now. The winning score landed at 18-under in each of the first three years and, in windier conditions last season, Joel Dahmen won with a score of 12-under. Scoring will certainly take a hit if the winds kick up once again currently it looks like winds will really only have a significant impact over the first two rounds before settling across the weekend -- more on that in the weather section below. Good luck this week, guys!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday: 15-20 mph sustained winds throughout the entire day with slightly stronger gusts. Low-end possibility of some light rain in the afternoon. High 70s/low 80s temps.

Friday: Sustained winds around 15 mph all day with 20 mph gusts in the a.m. High 70s/low 80s temps.

Weekend: Winds calm down noticeably. They may hit 15 mph at times but are expected to remain <10 mph for much of the Sat/Sun rounds. High 70s/low 80s temps.

Verdict: The winds impact both waves pretty evenly this week. The AM/PM wave may get the slightly better end of the draw since they’re expected to avoid the gustier conditions on Friday but I wouldn’t base any significant DFS strategy around that. But if you’re stuck deciding between two similar golfers with one playing in the PM/AM wave and the other in the AM/PM wave, perhaps use the weather as a tiebreaker and opt to go with the AM/PM guy.

Corales Puntacana Championship Tee Times

As always, try to run a final forecast check on Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning just in case anything changes. You can click on the images below to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 5 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting | 15%

5. Driving Distance | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Note: Keep in mind that around one-fourth of golfers in this week’s field do not have enough measured PGA rounds to qualify for strokes gained data.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Sahith Theegala | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #9

Best Key Stat Trends: 2nd P5 AVG, 12th SG: BS, 18th BoB%

Theegala’s T-7 finish at last week’s Valspar Championship and his T-3 at the WM Phoenix Open are major indicators that he is ready to compete with strong PGA caliber fields. This week, the level of competition obviously goes way down and it’s an excellent spot for this emerging 24-year-old talent to snag his first PGA victory. At the Valspar Championship last week, his +9.85 strokes gained tee to green trailed only Justin Thomas (+9.95 SG: T2G). Driving accuracy has been an issue for Theegala but that should have less of a penalizing impact this week on wide open like Corales GC.

Joel Dahmen | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Overall Model Rank: #1

Best Key Stat Trends: 2nd BoB%, 5th SG: BS, 9th P5 AVG

Dahmen will return as the defending champion at this event. He came into this event last season on a major skid, having missed six cuts in his previous seven starts before emerging victorious at Corales GC. His form is in much better shape this go ‘round with 11-of-13 made cuts on the season, a pair of respectable top 40 finishes over the last couple weeks (Valspar & The PLAYERS), and he’s only five starts removed from a strong T-6 at Pebble Beach. On top of his win at the Corales last season, in his other two starts here he landed T-12 and T-13 finishes. Dahmen will not come cheap this week but he’s easily one of the most proven golfers in this entire field.

Mark Hubbard | DK: $10k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 30/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #12

Best Key Stat Trends: 3rd P5 AVG, 15th SG: Putting, 22nd BoB%

Hubbard has not competed in this event before but he will come into the week with perhaps the most impressive long-term form of any golfer in this entire field. Granted, it obviously helps that this is a super weak field, but nonetheless Hubbard ranks 1st in the field in average fantasy points over the last 10 starts. He is certainly not a long hitter (82nd in Driving Distance) but he shines elsewhere on the stat sheet. After routinely notching finishes in the 15-35 range in tougher fields/events, look for Hubbard to excel now that the level of competition is dialed way back.

Adam Svensson | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #8

Best Key Stat Trends: 14th SG: BS, 14th BoB%, 18th P5 AVG

Since the calendar flipped over to 2022, Svensson has made 6-of-7 cuts on the PGA Tour to go along with a pair of top 10 finishes. The Canadian’s game is anchored by strong ball striking and a traditional “fairways & greens” approach. The lack of consistency with the putter (71st SG: Putting) is Svensson’s main hurdle he’ll have to overcome if he wants to contend this week. However, the softer and slower paspalum greens featured at Corales GC could help disguise and propel a typically poor putter like Svensson.

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Patrick Rodgers | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #37

Overall Model Rank: #27

Best Key Stat Trends: 10th Driving Distance, 12th SG: Putting, 33rd P5 AVG

Rodgers has the sort of big driver which can provide a notable advantage on these wide fairways at Corales GC. He also has one of the better putters in this field so if the ball striking (37th in SG: BS) is on point, expect Rodgers to compete this week. He’s had some solid success in this event as well, making 3-of-3 cuts with finishes of T-43, T-11, and T-22.

Greyson Sigg | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Overall Model Rank: #5

Best Key Stat Trends: 28th P5 AVG, 29th SG: BS, 34th SG: Putting

Sigg doesn’t really crush it in any one or two statistical categories but he’s solid across the board and ranks 45th or better in every key stat category this week. He has also found some nice form this calendar year where he has made 6-of-7 cuts on the PGA Tour. He returns to the Corales Championship where he landed a T-9 finish last season and he'll make for an appealing mid-range DFS option this week.

Nick Taylor | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #42

Overall Model Rank: #34

Best Key Stat Trends: 30th SG: BS, 33rd Driving Distance, 37th SG: Putting

There is nothing flashy about Taylor’s game but he has simply been getting the job done nearly every week on the PGA Tour this season. Taylor has only one missed cut across his last nine PGA starts and he has posted six finishes of T-33 or better on that span. Taylor will be taking his first competitive swings at this course but considering he’s been posting very respectable results in much stronger fields for several months now, I can’t imagine he’ll have much trouble continuing his steady play down at the Corales Championship this week.

Austin Smotherman | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #18

Overall Model Rank: #14

Best Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: BS, 19th Driving Distance, 39th BoB%

By the numbers, Smotherman checks in as the best ball striker in this week’s field. He is still a new face on the PGA Tour but he has wasted little time making several splashes on the leaderboards. Smotherman heads into the Corales Championship having made four of his last five cuts. His recent stretch of success is highlighted by a T-11 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T-25 last week at the Valspar Championship where his +6.37 SG: Ball Striking ranked 9th in the field. He’ll remain more of a GPP target, as opposed to a cash game play, due to his highly unpredictable putter (73rd SG: Putting) -- though, he did essentially stay just ahead of the field last week when he gained +0.37 strokes with the flat stick. He’ll need to do a bit more on the greens in order to turn in a big time finish… and it’s certainly possible that can happen for Smotherman!

Hudson Swafford | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 45/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #19

Best Key Stat Trends: 1st BoB%, 7th P5 AVG, 8th Driving Distance

Swafford won The American Express back in late January and has been in a bit of a freefall ever since. He followed up that win at the AMEX with a missed cut, a T-60, and then three more missed cuts in a row. However, Swafford’s last two appearances at Corales GC have resulted in a T-6 and a victory, so it’s clearly a course he loves to play on. Also, to state the obvious once again, the strength of this field will be far below what Swafford has been up against in recent weeks over in Florida. Given his past success here and his affordable DFS salaries, Swafford looks like a top GPP play to target out of this price range.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Wyndham Clark | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #38

Overall Model Rank: #76

Best Key Stat Trends: 2nd Driving Distance, 6th SG: Putting, 31st BoB%

After a strong start to the season, Clark’s form has taken a turn for the worst in recent weeks following three missed cuts and a disqualification over his last four starts. He’ll be making his Corales debut but his long-hitting driver and (typically) elite putter are two instruments Clark could use to make some noise this week. If he manages to find a groove with his iron play, look for Clark to post the kind of result we would routinely see out of him across the earlier portion of this season.

Bill Haas | DK: $7k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #69

Overall Model Rank: #52

Best Key Stat Trends: 31st Driving Distance, 46th P5 AVG, 47th SG: Putting

Haas may not have much working in his favor on paper but he has been stringing quite a few strong rounds together lately and heads into the Corales Championship with four made cuts across his last five PGA starts. His previous two starts in this tournament have resulted in missed cuts but I’d prefer to rely upon his improved recent form instead of the lackluster course history. As the 49th most expensive golfer on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he’s at a price point where you essentially just need him to make it past the cut line and perhaps do a little something on the weekend and you’ll be satisfied. Should he continue trending upward, a sneaky top 25 for Haas wouldn’t be out of the question here.

Trey Mullinax | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k

Odds: 90/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Overall Model Rank: #28

Best Key Stat Trends: 3rd Driving Distance, 8th P5 AVG, 19th SG: BS

Between his iron play and his putting, Mullinax lost just under nine strokes to the field across his two rounds at last week’s Valspar Championship. It was certainly an ugly couple of rounds of golf for Mullinax which led to him missing the cut by a wide margin. If he can put that performance behind him and positively regress back to his typical metrics, he could be an excellent low-owned play this week. Mullinax fits the bomber profile and he has actually been a strong ball striker for a good portion of the season. He has also made the cut in both of his previous starts at Corales GC so returning to a course where he has previously had decent success could be just what he needs to right the ship following a rough couple starts on those pesky Florida courses.

Seth Reeves | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #11

Best Key Stat Trends: 4th P5 AVG, 6th BoB%, 17th SG: BS

Reeves is not a golfer I’m overly familiar with but I wanted to throw him out as a potential value play because he absolutely crushes it on the stat sheet, ranking 4th in the field in the “key stats only” model -- and you can see his three best ranked metrics listed above. Reeves also has a T-41 and a T-33 within his last four PGA starts (Puerto Rico Open & Pebble Beach Pro-Am) and in his only other start at the Corales Championship, he came away with a T-18 in 2019. Of course, the game of golf doesn’t always translate directly from the stat sheet into reality but there are some notable trends to like about Reeves’ game this week.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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