Looking ahead at some DFS targets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The first of three PGA playoff events has arrived! The top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings have earned the right to compete in the FedEx St. Jude Championship which will be held at TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN. For golfers to qualify for the second playoff event next week (BMW Championship), they will need to finish inside the top 70 in FedEx Cup standings this week. Even though there are golfers who MUST have a great finish in this event to survive and advance, I wouldn’t let the standings influence my DFS approach. However, I will link the FEC standings below as the sweat for players to crack the top 70 in FEC points is a huge entertainment factor for this tournament.

To no surprise, this field is extremely loaded with talent. There are a few notable names missing but 24 of the top 30 ranked players in the world will be in attendance, along with 63 of the top 100. Even with the smaller field of 122 golfers, the typical 36-hole cut rule stays in place – the top 65 (including ties) will make it into the weekend rounds. Since a larger percentage of the field will make it past the cut line, feel free to be a little more aggressive with your lineup construction. While the best of the best players tend to rise to the top of the leaderboard in this tournament, “stars and scrubs” remains a viable approach.

Current FedEx Cup Standings

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Southwind

Par 70 - 7,237 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Difficulty Last Five Years: 17th, 14th, 25th, 11th, 15th

First Tee: Thursday, August 11th @ 8:15 am ET

TPC Southwind is a sneaky long course that will certainly challenge the world’s best golfers this week. It has routinely ranked as one of the top 20 most difficult courses in recent years and possesses many course defenses from tee to green. The narrow tree-lined Zoysia grass fairways are very bouncy and can be difficult to hit. Many of the holes feature doglegged layouts which will place more emphasis on finding the correct landing zones. The Bermuda grass greens are small, undulated, hard to hit consistently in regulation, and run firm and fast (12-13 on the stimpmeter). Additionally, bunkers and water hazards are a major threat. The water hazards, which are in play on ten holes, are particularly dangerous, as more balls have found water at TPC Southwind than any other course since 2003… and it isn’t particularly close. Many big numbers will inevitably get written on scorecards this week. One attribute of this course that shouldn’t cause golfers *too* much stress is the rough, which isn’t going to be too gnarly or overly difficult to hit out of.

Many different types of golfers have had success here. Being super accurate off the tee isn’t necessarily of the utmost importance, since the rough is reasonably forgiving. But with all of the hazards in play, you can’t exactly “bomb and gouge” this course and expect to come out unscathed. This is very much a second shot course, so strokes gained on approach should be a heavily weighted metric. Also, as is the case with most Par 70 setups, efficient Par 4 scoring is going to be crucial since they make up 12 of the 18 holes. Due to the smaller green complexes, golfers are inevitably going to miss some of their approach shots, so gaining strokes around the greens will be necessary. An important distance for shots this week will come from the 150-175 yard range. Nearly 30% of approach shots have historically been hit from that distance at TPC Southwind. Finally, given the fact that most of these holes are going to play over par, look for golfers who excel at bogey avoidance. If TPC Southwind plays similarly to how it has in previous seasons, a winning score will be somewhere around 10-to-15-under, so don’t go into this one expecting a complete birdiefest!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday AM: Light 5 mph winds throughout the morning.

Thursday PM: Winds may be a touch stronger in comparison to the morning, but still at very manageable <10 mph speeds.

Friday AM: 5-10 mph winds with occasional 15 mph gusts.

Friday PM: Sustained winds around 10-12 mph with slightly stronger gusts.

Weekend: Much of the same as the first two days. Winds should mostly stay under 10 mph.

Verdict: No reason to force any sort of wave advantage into this week. It’s going to be blazing hot at times, but golfers will enjoy four days of some great golf weather.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

6. Proximity 150-175 Yards | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

FedEx St. Jude Championship Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the key stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Rory McIlroy | DK: $11k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 11/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: OTT, 9th P4 AVG, 12th Bogey Avd.

You’re paying the absolute premium for Rory and even though we haven’t seen him compete since his 3rd place finish at The Open a month ago, there is no reason to believe he’s ready to cool down now. Ever since McIlroy turned it on at The Masters, where he finished runner-up, he’s gone on to finish no worse than T-19 in his past eight starts which includes five top 5s and a win (RBC Canadian Open). He returns to TPC Southwind where he’s made 4-of-4 cuts in his career highlighted by finishes of 4th, 7th, and 12th.

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #6

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: ATG, 7th SG: OTT, 10th Bogey Avd.

Fitz has been playing the best golf of his career this season and he returns to a course that fits his game extremely well, evidenced by his 6th and 4th place finishes at TPC Southwind in 2020 and 2019. His driver has been a major weapon which has led to him gaining at least 2.3 strokes off the tee in each of his last five starts. The 2022 US Open champion will now look to take the next step and chase the top prize of $18,000,000 that is awarded to the eventual FedEx Cup champion.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 16/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #7

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th SG: App, 6th P4 AVG, 13th Bogey Avd.

Tony Finau | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd Bogey Avd., 7th P4 AVG, 8th SG: App

Viktor Hovland | DK: $9k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 35/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #28

Key Stats Only Rank: #27

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 10th SG: App, 18th SG: OTT, 22nd P4 AVG

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Sungjae Im | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #13

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st Bogey Avd., 3rd SG: ATG, 7th P4 AVG

If there was any doubt that Sungjae Im has found his groove following a brief summertime slump, he has quelled those concerns with back-to-back T-2 finishes. He put on an extremely well-balanced performance last week where he gained strokes across the board: +3.56 SG: OTT, +2.75 SG: App, +0.98 SG: ATG, and +4.10 SG: Putting. Were it not for Joohyung Kim putting absolutely out of his mind (+12.55 SG: Putting), Sungjae likely takes home the hardware. Regardless, his game looks to be in stellar form right now and he will look to post his best result at TPC Southwind following lackluster finishes of 46th and 35th at this course in the last two seasons.

Billy Horschel | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #24

Key Stats Only Rank: #39

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: ATG, 18th P4 AVG, 23rd Bogey Avd.

Horschel will put the “course horse” narrative to the test this week. He has an astounding seven top 25 finishes in his last eight starts at TPC Southwind, including five top 10s! He’s proven he can win on a tough course against stiff competition with his victory at the Memorial back in early June. His form has also been rounding back into shape with finishes of T-27 (Wyndham Championship) and T-21 (The Open) in his last two starts. The short game often does the heavy lifting for Horschel’s game so if he can have a good week with his irons, he can most certainly be in the mix come Sunday.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Joohyung Kim | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to register for strokes gained data.

Davis Riley | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 90/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #70

Key Stats Only Rank: #49

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 36th P4 AVG, 37th SG: OTT, 52nd SG: App

Taylor Pendrith | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #37

Key Stats Only Rank: #35

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 13th SG: OTT, 23rd P4 AVG, 27th Bogey Avd.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Scott Stallings | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #26

Key Stats Only Rank: #38

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 27th P4 AVG, 40th SG: App, 49th Bogey Avd.

Scott Stallings has been on a tear over the last month-and-a-half posting finishes of T-13, T-10, T-4, and T-8. In that stretch, he has gained at least +6.2 strokes ball striking. Stallings hasn’t competed on this course since 2018 but he does have plenty of overall experience, making 5-of-7 cuts at TPC Southwind which includes a runner-up finish in 2013.

Lee Hodges | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.4k

Odds: 400/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #72

Key Stats Only Rank: #62

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th Proximity from 150-175 Yards, 52nd Bogey Avd., 53rd SG: App

When a golfer is just $400 above the stone minimum, you’re really just hoping they make it into the weekend. Hodges has been doing just that with seven made cuts in his last eight starts. And he’s not completely without any upside, proven by his T-16 at the 3M Open and T-25 at the Travelers Championship. This will be his career debut at TPC Southwind but, with a little luck in the short game, Hodges has some nice potential as a value target this week.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Cam Davis | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 90/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #35

Key Stats Only Rank: #57

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 26th Proximity from 150-175 Yards, 44th SG: App, 52nd SG: OTT

Taylor Moore | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #74

Key Stats Only Rank: #80

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 35th SG: OTT, 36th P4 AVG, 60th Bogey Avd.

Stewart Cink | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 225/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #73

Key Stats Only Rank: #96

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 49th Proximity from 150-175 Yards, 69th SG: OTT, 72nd P4 AVG

FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets

Snagged the Joohyung Kim +3300 outright hit last week! I've got some traveling to do this evening so if I post a card for this week, it'll be pretty late tonight -- just a fair warning. You'll be able to find my final betting card over on my Twitter. Along with a few outright bets, I’ll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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