Looking ahead at some DFS targets for the Fortinet Championship and the beginning of the new 2022-23 PGA season!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

One of the many great things about the PGA – it has the shortest off-season in sports! Rory McIlroy came away with an $18 million top prize after winning the 2021-22 FedEx Cup Playoffs just over a week and a half ago, and we’re already hopping right back into the action. So, welcome to the 2022-23 PGA season everyone! I know NFL reigns supreme around this time of year, but PGA DFS can be a highly lucrative and entertaining venture in its own right. I honestly wasn’t much of a golf fan when I was younger but around eight years ago I began getting invested in PGA DFS and quickly became enamored with the sport. If you’re looking to give PGA DFS a shot this season, feel free to hit me up in LineStar chat or message me over on Twitter with any questions you may have! It is a strange time in the sport as the deep-pocketed LIV Golf tour continues to siphon off some high-profile PGA Tour players. Fortunately, the PGA talent pool remains deep and there are always hungry young golfers looking to break through to the next level!

The new season tees off in Napa Valley, California with the Fortinet Championship which will be hosted by the Silverado Resort & Spa (North Course). The field strength for these early season events is usually going to be on the weaker side and we won’t see any star-studded fields until we get into the 2023 calendar year. However, even the more casual golf fans will recognize plenty of names this week with 21 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers on-site at the Fortinet Championship. In total, over 150 golfers will be teeing it up this week and the standard cut rule will once again be in play – the top 65 golfers (incl. ties) after two rounds will earn their way into the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

The North Course at the Silverado Resort & Spa is a Par 72 that stretches 7,123 yards. This has been the host course for this event every year since 2014, so there is a solid amount of course history to dig into. Silverado is not an overly tough layout, but it can show its teeth at times, especially if the weather is sub-optimal. Over the last five years, in terms of difficulty, this course has ranked 38th, 43rd, 19th, 29th, and 23rd. A winning score in the mid-to-high teens can usually be expected.

With the four Par 5s, there are going to be a high amount of birdie opportunities this week, along with some eagle chances as well. However, several holes on this course can turn out to be a bit tricky and produce some large scorecard numbers so some significant back-and-forth shifts on the leaderboard can be expected. There are several course defenses in play here – primarily residing in the undulated poa greens and tight, difficult-to-hit tree-lined fairways (average fairway accuracy last year was just 55.3%) which feature plenty of strategically placed bunkers that protect the preferred landing zones. The North Course isn’t long by any means and accuracy over distance tends to be more rewarding even though the rough isn’t overly penalizing. There are a few holes where a more aggressive approach off the tee can pay dividends so longer hitters can look to make some moves in those hole-specific situations. Overall, the golfers most likely to excel this week are the ones who will keep their ball in the short grass, possess an accurate approach game, and capitalize on the four easy Par 5 holes while separating themselves from the pack by scoring well on the more difficult Par 4s.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday AM: Cool, calm conditions. No problematic winds in the very early morning hours with ~10 mph winds coming into play closer to midday.

Thursday PM: Sustained winds pick up to 15 mph in the afternoon hours.

Friday AM: Cool and calm conditions once again. Winds maxing out around 5 mph with no significant gusts.

Friday PM: Sustained winds will rarely go beyond 10 mph.

Weekend: Nothing crazy to report here. Winds will look to pick up Saturday afternoon. Sunday will provide some gusty conditions (15+ mph) at times with the possibility of rain coming into play in the late afternoon.

Verdict: It isn’t looking like an immense advantage, but the AM/PM wave will look to benefit from a better weather draw due to Thursday morning’s super calm conditions. They avoid the 15 mph winds on Thursday afternoon.

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT)| 30%

2. Birdie or Better % | 25%

3. Par 5 Average | 20%

4. Par 4 Average | 15%

5. *Good Drive % | 10%

> *The percentage of time a player hit a good drive.

Good Drive % Definition: On Par 4 and Par 5s, the number of fairways hit, + the # of Greens or fringe hit in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot divided by the number of Par 4 and Par 5s played

PGA Tour Stats Page

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Sahith Theegala | DK: $10k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 28/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th P5 AVG, 22nd BoB%, 23rd P4 AVG

AM/PM Wave Advantage: Yes

Theegala making it to the TOUR Championship, which only the top 30 golfers in the yearly FedEx Cup standings qualify for, was a feat on its own. Not many PGA Tour rookies play well enough across an entire season to make it that far. But Theegala was just rock-solid in a season where he made 26-of-31 cuts. He returns to a course where he has now competed for multiple years with eight competitive PGA rounds under his belt at Silverado. He turned in a so-so T-47 in this event last year but posted a strong T-14 in 2021. Theegala’s main issue has been the inability to piece four complete rounds together in a tournament but we should expect him to mature and take that next step forward this season.

Taylor Pendrith | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11k

Odds: 33/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th BoB%, 11th SG: Ball Striking, 11th P4 AVG

AM/PM Wave Advantage: Yes

Few golfers finished the 2021-22 campaign on a stronger run than Pendrith and it’s a major reason why he is catapulted atop the overall model rankings for me this week. Pendrith racked up five finishes of T-13 or better across his final six starts to the season, including an impressive T-8 at the BMW Championship and a T-2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Pendrith can bomb it while also maintaining a solid Good Drive% and, even without an elite putter, that tends to lead to a slew of birdies. He turned in a T-36 in his Fortinet Championship debut last year and will almost certainly outperform that result this season.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Max Homa | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 16/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #6

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd P5 AVG, 5th SG: Ball Striking, 12th BoB%

AM/PM Wave Advantage: No

Corey Conners | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: Ball Striking, 2nd Good Drive%, 3rd P4 AVG

AM/PM Wave Advantage: Yes

Cam Davis | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th BoB%. 18th SG: Ball Striking, 23rd P5 AVG

AM/PM Wave Advantage: Yes

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Taylor Montgomery | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

AM/PM Wave Advantage: Yes

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

With the new season will come new golfers to watch out for and Taylor Montgomery is one of those guys. He’s coming up from the Korn Ferry Tour, in which he led in average birdies per round and was third in putting average. He turned in top 10 finish after top 10 finish on the KFT -- in fact, he finished T-9 or better in eight of his final 11 starts last season. He’ll be tested against tougher competition that features plenty of PGA Tour veterans but the potential is absolutely there.

Trey Mullinax | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 55/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #10

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th BoB%, 14th P5 AVG, 23rd SG: BS

AM/PM Wave Advantage: No

Dating back to his win at the Barbasol Championship in early July, Mullinax has just been playing some great golf. Along with that win, he has recorded finishes of T-5 (FedEx St. Jude), T-12 (BMW Championship), and T-21 (The Open). Mullinax has posted these results thanks to some remarkable ball striking and, if his recent stretch of golf is any indication, he is on the cusp of producing his best season as a professional in this upcoming year.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Brendan Steele | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #16

Key Stats Only Rank: #34

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: Ball Striking, 19th P4 AVG, 48th Good Drive%

AM/PM Wave Advantage: Yes

Justin Suh | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

AM/PM Wave Advantage: No

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

Carl Yuan | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9k

Odds: 90/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

AM/PM Wave Advantage: No

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

Chez Reavie | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 75/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #30

Key Stats Only Rank: #68

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th Good Drive%, 35th SG: Ball Striking, 64th P4 AVG

AM/PM Wave Advantage: No

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Patrick Rodgers | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 110/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #35

Key Stats Only Rank: #52

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 18th P5 AVG, 41st SG: Ball Striking, 45th P4 AVG

AM/PM Wave Advantage: Yes

Rodgers isn’t going to blow you away on paper, though he is one of the better Par 5 scorers -- not only in this price range but in the entire field. A big draw with Rodgers will be his course history. He has made the cut in six of his last seven starts here, including five straight, with a pair of T-6 finishes. Rodgers has made nine of his last 12 cuts on the PGA Tour and will provide decent safety and upside at these prices.

John Augenstein | DK: $6k, FD: $7k

Odds: 275/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

AM/PM Wave Advantage: Yes

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

This is nothing short of a minimum salary punt but Augenstein isn’t just some random dart throw that has zero merits. He finished T-6 in this tournament last year, where he gained strokes across the board. He posted the T-6 here following a T-37 at the Wyndham Championship and a T20 at the Charles Schwab Challenge a few weeks prior, so he’s shown that he can hang in a PGA caliber field. Most recently, he finished T-36 in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship a couple of weeks ago. He does at least draw the more favorable weather as part of the AM/PM wave, and anything beyond a made cut from Augenstein would be immense value.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Stephan Jaeger | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #51

Key Stats Only Rank: #75

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 27th BoB%, 47th P5 AVG, 86th SG: Ball Striking

AM/PM Wave Advantage: Yes

Austin Eckroat | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

AM/PM Wave Advantage: No

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

Sam Stevens | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 140/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

AM/PM Wave Advantage: Yes

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

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• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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