By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour will spend one final week out on the West Coast before heading down south to begin the Florida Swing. The Genesis Invitational lands on the docket this week and is hosted by Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, CA, just outside of Los Angeles. This event draws an extremely strong field essentially every year and this go ‘round is no different. The strength of this field honestly comes close to that of a Major or WGC event. Every single top 10 ranked player in the world will be teeing it up this week. In total, 19 of the top 25 and 62 of the top 100 players in the world are on site. Since this is an invitational event, the field is a bit smaller than usual – only 120 golfers will compete. The traditional cut rule is also in effect once again with the top 65 players (including ties) after 36 holes moving on to play the weekend. With such a star-studded field, you’ll notice some extremely talented golfers priced way down from where they would normally be. As a result, making lineups for this tournament is always fun! While I prefer a more balanced approach in cash games, feel free to get a bit riskier in your GPPs since over half of the field is guaranteed to make the cut.

The Course Preview ⛳

Riviera Country Club

Par 71 | 7,322 Yards

Greens: Poa Annua

Difficulty Rank Last 5 Years: 17th, 10th, 10th, 9th, 23rd

Cut Line Last 5 Years: Even, +1, Even, +2, Even

Tournament Start: Thursday, February 17th at 9:40 am ET

Riviera CC is a longer Par 71 set up that extends 7,322 yards. This course tends to provide one of the more difficult challenges on Tour and ranked 17th in overall difficulty in 2021. It draws many comparisons to Augusta National (The Masters) and you could consider that to be a strong correlating course when researching golfers this week. Riviera CC was redesigned in 2008 and has since often favored guys who are longer off the tee (aka ‘bombers’). Shorter hitters aren’t necessarily out of contention here but they will need to be very accurate with their longer irons to stand a chance at a top 10-25 finish. In general, it is best to target golfers who can routinely drive the ball 300+ yards. In this day and age, the majority of PGA golfers are capable of that distance off of the tee and even guys who average around 290 yards will still be able to add a bit more ‘oomph’ on certain holes in order to get it closer to 300+. The narrow tree-lined fairways are usually some of the hardest to hit on the PGA Tour. Fairway accuracy for the field at this course is usually around 55%… and it even dipped to 47% last season -- well below Tour average. Riviera CC is unique in that it is one of the few courses on the PGA Tour circuit to feature Kikuyu grass on the fairways, rough, and surrounding the greens. Kikuyu is typically found more often in places like Australia, Asia, and South Africa and it is unique due to its spongy and almost sticky-like nature. It has the ability to stop golf balls dead in their tracks and the Kikuyu rough can provide some interesting but often playable lies (further advantage to bombers). At times, when a golfer’s ball finds the rough, it can end up sitting on top of the Kikuyu grass and be positioned almost like a tee shot. Other times, it will be snatched down and buried at the bottom which will force a “grip it and rip it” approach. So while there can be friendly lies in the rough, the preferred strategy would be to stay in the fairway where Kikuyu grass cooperates the most.

There are several doglegged holes in play along with strategically placed fairway bunkers protecting the preferred landing zones. With six of the Par 4 holes stretching over 450 yards, expect long irons to be vital as well. The two most common approach distances will be from 150-175 yards and from 200+ yards out. The greens here are above average in size (around 7,500 sq/ft on average), they feature tricky Poa Annua grass, and are well protected by a myriad of menacing bunkers and false fronts. Despite the above average square footage of the green complexes, the ideal landing zones to get the best looks at birdies are on the smaller side and the greens themselves should run quite firm and fast (between 12-13 on the stimpmeter). This will ultimately force golfers to be on top of their overall short game as well as many moderately accurate approach shots may still bleed off of the green.

The winning score here has been 11-under or lower the last six years, so we can still expect some moderate scoring conditions, especially if the winds cooperate. But make no mistake, Riviera will not be a pushover birdie-fest and golfers are going to have to fight for every birdie they get. Simply scoring par on some of these holes will be considered a win. The margin of victory here has been greater than two strokes only once in the last decade so expect this tournament to easily be one of the most tightly contested and entertaining events we’ve seen up to this point in the season! One final note -- course history tends to really come in handy here so golfers who have consistently found success at Riviera CC over the years should be given an extra ‘bump’ within DFS rankings. With all of that said, let’s get a more detailed look at the weather, the stats I will be keying in on, a list of golfers who are popping in my personal model, and some of my favorite DFS targets for this week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: Cool and comfortable temps in the 50s and 60s all week. Plenty of sunshine. No rain in sight.

Winds: The current forecast shows wind speeds residing in the single digits for the entire tournament.

Verdict: It’s looking like ideal golf conditions this week so the weather should have zero impact on your DFS decisions. Easy enough!

Genesis Invitational Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Driving Distance | 10%

5. Proximity from the Rough | 10%

6. Proximity from 150-175 Yards | 10%

7. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 5%

The Genesis Invitational Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Note: With a smaller field, I’ll be highlighting only two golfers per salary range this week but, as always, additional targets will be mentioned in the “Quick Hits” section towards the end.

Dustin Johnson | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 16/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Overall Model Rank: #13

At the high-end price range, Jon Rahm ($11.3k/$12.1k) and Patrick Cantlay ($11k/$12k) are going to get their usual high ownership -- as they should. They’ve been competing in many of the PGA Tour events recently while consistently churning out excellent results. So, if you want to take a contrarian route and go away from golfers like Rahm and Cantlay, then Dustin Johnson has some real appeal. Much of it has to do with his phenomenal course history. DJ has made 12-of-14 cuts at Riviera CC to go along with a whopping ten top 10 finishes, six top 5s, and a win back in 2017. He has finished worse than T-16 only once at Riviera CC in the last decade. His last appearance on the PGA Tour came at the Farmers Insurance Open three weeks ago where he came away with a decent, but by his standards, underwhelming T-25 finish. He flashed a bit more promising form the following week over on the Asian Tour when he finished T-8 at the PIF Saudi International. Dustin Johnson has not been extremely active on the PGA Tour yet this season and his game may not be in the best shape when looking at all of the numbers and figures on paper, but returning to Riviera CC where he’s had incredible success over such a long period of time should be exactly what he needs to get back on track as we near closer and closer to marquee tournaments like THE PLAYERS and The Masters.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Overall Model Rank: #5

Xander is about as reliable of a golfer there is on the PGA Tour. In his last 44 worldwide starts, he has missed only two cuts to go along with a whopping 35 top 25 finishes in that span and plenty of top 10s along the way as well. He has performed well in his four previous starts at Riviera CC where he has made every cut and has averaged a 15th place finish. At the WM Phoenix Open last week, Schauffele led the field gaining a massive +13.15 strokes tee to green en route to a T-3 finish. If he had a bit more luck with the putter (-1.22 strokes putting on the week), it’s pretty likely that he would have been the guy hoisting the trophy instead of Scottie Scheffler, who had a crazy-good week on the greens gaining +7.22 strokes. Schauffele has all the right tools in his bag that you would want from a premier golfer at Riviera. He’s a great ball striker (21st in SG: BS), he’s proficient around the greens (15th in SG: ATG), he provides excellent distance (14th in Driving Distance), and the man can score (10th in BoB%). And while his ability with the flat stick didn’t exactly shine last week, Schauffele is normally one of the more reliable putters on Tour -- he ranks 7th in this field in putting average and 6th in three-putt avoidance. He checks off just about every box you could ask for and won’t eat up a massive amount of the DFS budget since he is the 6th (DK) and 5th (FD) most expensive golfer on the board this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Will Zalatoris | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Overall Model Rank: #21

Despite being tied with Hideki Matsuyama ($9.3k/$11.4k) and Viktor Hovland ($9.4k/$11.2k) with the ninth-best odds to win at 25/1, Zalatoris checks in with his lowest DFS salaries of the season and is the 14th most expensive golfer on both major DFS sites this week. The notable salary dip is a tad confusing considering Zalatoris is coming off of a solo 2nd place finish in his last start at the Farmers Insurance Open and finished T-6 the week prior at the AMEX. To go along with the excellent short term form, Zalatoris came away with a T-15 finish at last year’s Genesis Invitational. Despite being built like a string bean with twigs for arms and legs, Zalatoris is one of golf’s premiere ball strikers and, in this field, he ranks 2nd in overall strokes gained ball striking. He drives it about as far as anyone (12th in Driving Distance), hits it well out of the rough (16th in Rough Proximity), and provides some of the best long iron play in the field (5th in Proximity 200+ Yards). While consistency has been a bit of an issue in the long term, there is no question that Zalatoris has some of the rawest upside out of this price range and you have to love the short term form he has in his bag coming into the week.

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Overall Model Rank: #16

Fitzpatrick shares quite a bit in common as the aforementioned Will Zalatoris. Fitzpatrick is entering off of back-to-back top 10s (T10 at WMPO, T-6 at Pebble Beach), he played exceptionally well at Riviera CC last season where he landed a T-5 finish, and his DFS salaries (particularly on DK) represent some nice value in relation to his outright odds to win. He’s a golfer who has been known to play well on difficult courses throughout his career and there are several signs on paper that point towards him being an excellent DFS play -- he ranks 6th in this field in SG: BS, 2nd in Rough Proximity, and 9th in Proximity from 200+ Yards. The only real knock I have on Fitzpatrick is the fact that he doesn’t provide great distance off the tee, however, even though his average driving distance is under a 300-yard average, he still manages to rank 19th in this field in SG: OTT. Evidenced by that T-5 finish here last year, Riviera obviously doesn’t represent too much of a challenge for Fitzpatrick to handle. He’ll be another strong golfer to target out of the mid-tier.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Adam Hadwin | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #68

Overall Model Rank: #50

Hadwin may not be the sexiest DFS play on the board but, given his lower-end salaries, you’ll be hard-pressed to argue against him based off of his performance this season combined with his rock solid course history. Hadwin has been one of the more active golfers on the PGA Tour this season and has made 8-of-10 cuts overall. He returns to Riviera CC where he has played each of the last seven years, making the cut every single year while averaging a 29th place finish. Considering this is a guy who is checking in as the 45th (DK) and 48th (FD) most expensive golfer, any finish inside the top 30 is going to represent strong value. Hadwin is carried by an above average approach game (41st in SG: App), great ability around the greens (23rd in SG: ATG), and positive putting splits on Poa surfaces (17th in SG: Putting - Poa). He is another golfer who isn’t long off the tee by any means but due to his course history, I’m choosing to ignore the fact that he’s averaging only about 290 yards per drive. He profiles more as a cash-friendly play than a pure upside option in GPPs, but he did land a T-6 here in 2018 and popped off with a T-16 finish a couple starts back out at Pebble Beach.

Patrick Rodgers | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k

Odds: 175/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #45

Overall Model Rank: #52

You won’t find any other golfers in the immediate price range around Patrick Rodgers who shares such solid course history at Riviera. Rodgers has made the cut here in five consecutive seasons. Not only has he made it into the weekend, but he has also churned out solid results when he tees up at this course. Starting at last season and going backwards, Rodgers’ last five Genesis Invitational finishes have been T-12, T-30, T-15, T-26, and T-22. From a course fit perspective, it makes sense when you look at Rodgers’ game under a microscope. He has good distance off the tee (27th in Driving Distance), he makes quality shots from around the greens (18th in SG: ATG), he hits it pretty well out of the rough (40th in Rough Proximity), he’s an above average Poa putter (41st in SG: Putting - Poa), and his two best approaches shot distribution buckets happen to be the ones we want to target this week since they’re the most common ranges at Riviera -- he ranks 30th in this field in Proximity from 150-175 Yards and 27th in Proximity from 200+ Yards. Rodgers’ iron play may provide some cause for concern since he checks in at 97th in SG: Approach. However, under further inspection, he still hits a good amount of greens in regulation (ranks 30th in GIR)… he just doesn’t happen to be a guy who consistently throws darts onto the greens. So, if you’re going for a ‘stars & scrubs’ approach, Patrick Rodgers should be viewed as a favorable option, even in cash formats.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-End Range:

- Patrick Cantlay | DK: $11k, FD: $12k | Cash & GPP

He’s playing absolutely out of his mind right now after ripping off six straight top 10 finishes, including two wins to go along with a runner-up finish at last week’s WMPO. In four starts at Riviera CC, Cantlay has finished no worse than T-17 and he’s playing arguably the best golf of his career heading into this year’s Genesis Invitational.

- Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.7k | GPP Preferred

He’s not the longest guy off the tee (75th in Driv. Dist.) and his putter is often the club that lets him down the most. But Morikawa is the No. 2 ranked golfer in the world for a number of reasons and he provides winning upside on whatever course he tees up at. He’s going to hit more fairways than just about anyone in the field (4th in Driv. Acc.) and should continue to show off his world class irons (2nd in SG: App). In two appearances at Riviera, he has made the cut on both occasions, though with non-splashy finishes (T-43 & T-26). Expect Morikawa to post his best career Genesis Invitational finish this week.

- Rory McIlroy | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.3k | Cash & GPP

This will be Rory’s first PGA start in the 2022 calendar year but he did post a T-12 and a 3rd place finish over on the DP World Tour just a few weeks back so his recent form appears to be perfectly fine heading into this week. Rory had a disappointing MC here last year but in four previous starts at Riviera, he has finished T-5, T-4, T-20, and T-20. Normally, Rory is going to be a top five priced option but due to the elite field and the fact that he’s been away from the PGA Tour for a few months, it leads to him being priced as the 7th (DK) and 8th (FD) most expensive golfer on the board this week.

Mid-Range:

- Sam Burns | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.3k | GPP Preferred

Burns has to be one of the more intriguing tournament plays around this week as he enters off of back-to-back missed cuts -- missing those two cuts by a combined three strokes. So, he’s not exactly playing horrendously and prior to those two MCs, Burns had ten straight starts where he finished no worse than T-21 to go with five top 10s and a win (Sanderson Farms Champ.). He led this tournament in the final round on Sunday last year before eventually going on to finish in 3rd place, so he can clearly compete on this course against a stacked field.

- Adam Scott | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k | Cash & GPP

When it comes to course horses, Scott may be the second best horse in this field behind only Dustin Johnson. Scott has made 12-of-13 cuts in his career at Riviera CC to go along with two wins (2020 & 2005) and six total top 10s. The Aussie has not missed a cut yet this season and recently posted a pair of top 10s over on the DPWT before notching a so-so T-38 at the WMPO last week. I like him as a fairly safe top 25 play this week.

- Talor Gooch | DK: $8k, FD: $10.1k | Cash & GPP

Gooch continued his stretch of excellent golf with a respectable T-26 at last week’s WMPO and has now made 10-of-11 cuts on the year with nine finishes of T-27 or better. Not only is his recent form in great shape, he also returns to Riviera CC where he has made 3-of-3 cuts with finishes of T-12 (last year), T-10, and T-20. Those three results came at different points in his career where his game was not nearly as strong or consistent as it has been in recent months.

- Tom Hoge | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k | GPP Preferred

Over his last six starts, Hoge has a win under his belt (Pebble Beach), a runner-up finish (AMEX), a T-4 (RSM Classic), and most recently a T-14 (WMPO). He also has two missed cuts thrown in as well. Despite being a bit feast or famine, Hoge ranks 8th in this field in total strokes gained over the last three months. While he’s never had a finish better than T-39 in four starts at Riviera, his ball striking is at a near-elite level right now so he provides significant upside at these salaries.

Value Range & Punts:

- Thomas Pieters | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.2k | GPP Preferred

This is a guy who will likely go overlooked this week since he has not played in a PGA Tour event since the Barracuda Championship last August. However, Pieters has notched two victories within his last five worldwide starts, both coming over on the DP World Tour. The strength of this field will be a significant step up in talent compared to his recent outings, but his game is clearly in tiptop shape.

- Sahith Theegala | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.7k | GPP Preferred

This is perhaps a touch “chase-y” after his T-3 last week. But Theegala showed off his tremendous potential upside when he opened up the WMPO with rounds of 66, 64, and 69 over the first three days. And you could argue that Riviera CC suits his game even better than TPC Scottsdale.

- Robert MacIntyre | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k | GPP Preferred

This will be his Riviera CC debut but lefties, like MacIntyre, have found plenty of success here over the years and he’s coming off of two DPWT finishes of T-9 and T-13 within the last three weeks. I’m expecting sub-5% ownership on him so he’ll make for a great contrarian play in GPPs.

- Cameron Young | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.3k | GPP Preferred

This is a clear long shot as Cameron Young gets set to make his Riviera CC debut but there is much to like about what he could potentially bring to the table. Young is one of the longest hitters on the entire PGA Tour and ranks 2nd in this field in Driving Distance and 7th in BoB%. He’s finished T-40 or better in four of his last five PGA starts as well.

- Aaron Rai | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.9k | Cash & GPP

Only one missed cut in his last eight starts, and Rai pushed for a win at the Farmers Insurance Open where he ultimately finished T-6. He ranks 22nd in SG: BS so it’s hard not to like Rai as a punt play since he is barely above the stone minimum.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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