PGA DFS Guide + Top DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | Genesis Scottish Open ⛳

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

We enter into one of the most unique weeks on the PGA Tour in recent memory. For the first time since the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour created an alliance in 2020, the two tours will come together to co-sanction an event. The 2022 Scottish Open will be hosted by The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. Each tour will supply 75 of its top players. With a few other golfers playing on special exemption status, that will bring the overall field up to 156 players. The 150th Open Championship is one week away and many top golfers have chosen to make their way across the pond a week early in preparation. As a result, this event will boast one of the strongest non-major fields on the entire schedule and is headlined by 14 of the top 15 ranked golfers in the world. The standard PGA cut rule will be in effect with the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes earning passageway into weekend play. Golfers will be competing for a slice of the $8 million purse ($1.44M to 1st) and some valuable FedEx Cup points are also up for grabs. There are three spots for next week’s Open Championship still available as well for golfers who are not already qualified. Needless to say, there is plenty to play for this week!

Note: Remember that this event will start earlier than usual. DFS contests will lock with the first tee time at 2:15 am ET on Thursday “morning.”

The Course Preview ⛳

The Renaissance Club

Par 71 | 7,293 Yards

Greens: Fescue

Comp Courses: Royal Portrush, Kiawah Island (Ocean), Shinnecock Hills

The Renaissance Club has been home to the Scottish Open for each of the last three years so quite a few players will have at least some course history here. However, many golfers will be playing their first competitive rounds here this week as well. The layout falls under the category of a parklands-style links course. It features an unusual hole distribution for a Par 71 since there are four Par 5s and five Par 3s. Fescue grass is featured from tee to green and the fairways are surrounded by long rough that will measure between three and five inches. Water does not pose a threat here but the 83 bunkers scattered throughout the grounds will provide a notable layer of defense. The green complexes are large and possess some noticeable undulation but when it comes to the actual green speeds, they are expected to run slow.

Winning scores over the last three years have ranged from 11-under (2020) to 22-under (2019). In general, this is a very scorable course but it is super sensitive to winds due to its coastal location. As long as wind speeds stay at moderate to slow speeds, golfers should have no major problems sinking some birdies this week. Though, it does look like the forecast will be offering up a variety of conditions for golfers to contend with this week. This will be an excellent warm-up for golfers competing at St. Andrews next week and building DFS lineups with this talent-rich field should be a fun time as well! Good luck this week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage for golfers either teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or for the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). Your top priority in PGA DFS is to get 6-out-of-6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line and into the weekend – from there, anything can happen! If there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!

Thursday AM: Not easy, but manageable winds at 10-15 mph with no significant gusts.

Thursday PM: Around 3 pm, sustained winds are expected to pick up to 20-25 mph with gusts in the upper 20s.

Friday AM: 15 mph sustained winds with 20 mph gusts all morning.

Friday PM: 20 mph sustained winds with gusts approaching 30 mph.

Weekend: Winds are expected to max out at 15 mph with the occasional slightly stronger gust. Sunday’s round may feature the best weather out of the entire week.

Verdict: For full four-round DFS contests, I’m not too sure there will be much of an advantage for either wave. Perhaps a slight lean could go towards the AM/PM tee times but it seems as if both Thursday and Friday afternoons will feature some problematic wind speeds.

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 30%

3. Par 5 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

Note: Due to all of the DP World Tour players competing this week, roughly half of the field does not have any (or enough) PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data. This will certainly cause my player model to have a bias towards the PGA Tour regulars so keep that in mind when looking at any stat-related info/rankings in this newsletter.

Scottish Open Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st BoB%, 4th P5 AVG, 5th SG: App

JT is no stranger to The Renaissance Club. He competed in this tournament in both 2019 and 2021, notching a top 10 finish on both occasions. He’s been a certified top 10 machine this season with ten such finishes in 17 PGA starts. Of course, Thomas broke through for the victory at the PGA Championship in mid-May. Thanks to his elite ball striking and birdie-making ability, he should be in line for another high-end result this week. A good week with the putter could mean another victory as well.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th BoB%, 7th SG: App, 21st SG: ATG

Schauffele has been picking up strokes against the field at a torrid pace. Over his last five starts, he leads the field in average fantasy points and average final finish (10.2 avg finish). He’s had a couple of weeks to recalibrate the mental side of things following his big win at The Travelers and he should be fully prepared to post another juicy finish. Schauffele made his first appearance on this course at the 2021 Scottish Open and came away with a sturdy T-10 result. Given his well-balanced game that features a reliable flat stick, a floor expectation out of Xander would be a 15th-ish place finish and he’s certainly got some winning upside on his side as well.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 18/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #7

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: ATG, 6th SG: OTT, 14th P5 AVG

Cameron Smith | DK: $9.1k, FD: $11k

Odds: 28/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #16

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd BoB%, 2nd P5 AVG, 4th SG: App

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $9k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #8

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: App, 5th P5 AVG, 9th BoB%

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Ryan Fox | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A

*Golfer does not qualify for PGA strokes gained stats.

Fox is a non-PGA Tour player who should certainly draw some DFS consideration this week. He’s been absolutely cruising over on European turf. In his last eight DPWT starts, he has posted the following finishes: 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, T-2, T-8, T-9, T-15, 1st. He ranks 3rd on the DPWT in total strokes gained, 2nd in stroke average per round, and 3rd in strokes gained on approach. Fox has competed at this course in each of the last three years. Despite not posting any splashy finishes in those three starts at The Renaissance Club, course experience can always be invaluable and Fox enters this year’s Scottish Open in the best form of his career. He’s a worthy target out of the upper-midrange and he may fly slightly under the radar while being surrounded by those more recognizable PGA Tour names.

Adrian Meronk | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 75/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A

*Golfer does not qualify for PGA strokes gained stats.

Most avid PGA DFS players are familiar with the majority of golfers in the range -- guys like Max Homa, Keegan Bradley, Corey Conners, etc. So I wanted to highlight another guy who has been tearing it up on the DPWT. Meronk is fresh off of a victory at last week’s Irish Open. That win marked Meronk’s fifth top-six finish within his last seven starts. He currently ranks 5th on the DPWT in total strokes gained and 2nd in strokes gained off the tee. The flat stick has been a reliable club for Meronk as well, as he ranks 6th on the DPWT in strokes gained putting. He made the cut in his course debut here last year and given his spicy recent form, he could be a guy who can push for a sneaky top 10 this week as well.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Viktor Hovland | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 35/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #27

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th BoB%, 8th SG: App, 11th SG: OTT

Max Homa | DK: $8k, FD: $10k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #10

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th P5 AVG, 13th SG: App, 17th SG: OTT

Mito Pereira | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 75/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #21

Key Stats Only Rank: #21

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th SG: App, 14th SG: OTT, 29th P5 AVG

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Aaron Rai | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 70/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #23

Key Stats Only Rank: #37

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 29th P5 AVG, 31st SG: App, 39th SG: OTT

Rai won here at the 2020 Scottish Open when the weather was also less than ideal and he came back last year to post a respectable T-35. He has held a strong presence on the PGA Tour throughout this season and, more recently, he has gained strokes on the field in nine of his last ten events. Rai was in the field at last week’s Irish Open and came away with a T-9 result so his form is sharp heading into this week.

Jordan Smith | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A

*Golfer does not qualify for PGA strokes gained stats.

Smith has been putting on a ball striking clinic over on the DPWT where he ranks 1st in SG: Off the Tee and 15th in SG; Approach (6th in SG: Total). He’s missed only one cut all season and is currently riding a streak of six straight top 25 finishes. Smith is another guy who has competed at The Renaissance Club in each of the last three years and, despite some mixed results, he enters the 2022 Scottish Open in the best form of his golfing career. Whether or not he can stay hot against much stiffer competition remains to be seen, but he’ll be worth a shot in some GPPs at the very least.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #58

Key Stats Only Rank: #63

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 15th SG: ATG, 49th BoB%, 65th SG: App

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 175/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #34

Key Stats Only Rank: #40

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 19th SG: App, 38th SG: OTT, 40th P5 AVG

Callum Tarren | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k

Odds: 300/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #55

Key Stats Only Rank: #48

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 33rd BoB%, 41st P5 AVG, 46th SG: OTT

Scottish Open Bets

For anyone interested, I’ll be posting my final betting card for the Scottish Open over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 9:30 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I’ll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

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Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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