By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour bids farewell to the West Coast and travels east where the “Florida Swing” will begin with four of the next five upcoming events being hosted in the Sunshine State. This exciting, yet challenging stretch of golf that begins in Palm Beach Gardens, FL where the Champions Course at PGA National will play host to The Honda Classic for the 16th consecutive year. Be sure to stay mindful of the coastal shift, as the first tee time (and when DFS contests lock) is now going to be set for 6:50 am ET.

Following last week’s Genesis Invitational, which had an elite but smaller 120-player field, this tournament will revert back to a more typical-sized field with 144 players on site. The usual cut rule is once again in play as well so the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will advance to play the final two-weekend rounds. Only six of the top 25 ranked golfers in the world are on site this week so there is an obvious dip in top-end talent compared to last week. However, there are still plenty of recognizable names teeing up with 31 of the top 100 golfers on location in what can be considered a medium-strength field. Given the grueling nature of the PGA National golf course, the quick transition from the West to the East Coasts, and a pair of upcoming events with huge purses (Arnold Palmer Invitational & THE PLAYERS Championship) now just around the corner, it is not surprising to see that many top golfers have elected to skip out on this event. Regardless, this should be a fun tournament to watch since golfers will be truly tested and it’s a great week to get familiar with some less-recognizable names as well.

The Course Preview ⛳

PGA National (Champions Course)

Par 70 | 7,125 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Style: Parkland

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 6th, 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 16th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: +1, +3, +2, +5, Even

PGA National (Champions Course) is a Par 70 that checks in at a moderate distance of 7,125 yards. The difficulty of this course cannot be understated. Since PGA National began hosting this event in 2007, it has ranked inside the top 10 toughest courses on the PGA Tour in 12 out of 15 years. Last year, PGA National ranked as the 6th most difficult course and the winning score for the Honda Classic (at this course) has never been lower than 13-under -- and more often than not, the winning score has settled in the single digits under par. Unsurprisingly, most sportsbooks have the winning score O/U set at -9.5 this week. The infamous three-hole stretch at No. 15, No. 16, and No. 17, known as The Bear Trap, is annually one of the hardest three-hole stretches on the entire PGA Tour. Holes No. 5, No. 6, and No. 7 on the front nine are an extremely difficult set of holes as well and it is not uncommon for those three holes to actually play tougher than The Bear Trap. If golfers can grind out and play those six grueling holes close to even par, they will gain a massive edge on the field. When you’re following along with your golfers on TV coverage or via ShotTracker, keep your jaw, fists, and whatever else clinched once they approach both of those three-hole stretches!

The rough here is thick and tough to play out of. Hazards are a heavy course defense and await around nearly every corner. Water will come into play on 15 holes and the course features nearly 100 sand traps. On top of the standard course hazards, wind conditions can often add to PGA National’s formidable nature. Looking at the current forecast, things could certainly get a little dicey out there at times but golfers should be able to avoid super difficult wind conditions. Driving distance isn’t really important at PGA National and we can expect many golfers to club down off of the tee in order to avoid taking their golf ball for a swim or losing it in the wind and landing in the rough, in a bunker, or in one of the dicier areas which surround the fairways. Typically, drives at PGA National will average only around 275 yards in distance which is well below PGA Tour average. Approach shots will once again be crucial and crafty iron play will be absolutely essential. While golfers will certainly need to take advantage of the Par 5s, there are only two of those on this Par 70 setup, so targeting strong Par 4 scorers makes a great deal of sense. Golfers who excel at avoiding bogeys could also be at a premium considering the winning score is very likely to end in the single digits under par and this event has never really turned into anything remotely resembling a ‘birdie fest’. On many holes, particularly on those two three-hole stretches mentioned above, simply scoring a par will feel like scoring a birdie at times. One more significant change for golfers heading into The Honda Classic is the fact that they’ll be transitioning to Bermuda greens. Bermuda grass can be expected to run firmer and faster than Poa Annua greens which have been in play on many of the recent West Coast courses. Also, while these greens aren’t small by any means (~7,000 avg sq/ft), the greens hit in regulation percentage (GIR%) tends to be among the lowest of any course on the PGA Tour so it may be wise to look out for golfers who either provide a high GIR% or are exceptional scramblers.

There are plenty of speed bumps and surprises ahead for golfers at PGA National this week but it should be another exciting event to tune into! Building DFS lineups for this event may feel more challenging than previous weeks but if you’re willing to put in a little extra research, that should go a long way. Go into this one with the mindset that there will be no “safe” plays on the board and don’t be afraid to fade any particular golfer who may end up carrying high ownership. Expect carnage to run rampant from the time golfers tee off on Thursday morning all the way until the final putt drops on Sunday evening. Finally, due to the NBA All-Star Break, I know there may be some folks looking to dabble in other sports in the meantime. Feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat if you’re new to PGA DFS and have any questions!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperatures & Rain: Temps in the 70s all week with some moderate cloud coverage at times but plenty of sunshine overall. There are some low-end chances for rain over the first couple rounds but nothing heavy enough to cause any sort of washout or lengthy delay.

Wind: While the wind speeds aren’t expected to be too high, Thursday should feature ~10 mph sustained winds with gusts into the 15 mph range. The winds appear as if they’ll calm down slightly on Friday and into the weekend.

Verdict: Currently, golfers teeing up Thursday morning may see slightly gustier conditions than their Thursday afternoon counterparts. However, it’s not nearly enough of an advantage for me to deem it a major factor when it comes to any sort of tee time edge. But perhaps if you’re right on the fence between two golfers with one teeing off Thursday AM and the other teeing off Thursday PM, I’d maybe opt to go with the latter golfer using weather as the tiebreaker but that’s about it.

Honda Classic Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

4. Driving Accuracy | 10%

5. Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

6. Scrambling | 10%

The Honda Classic Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Sungjae Im | DK: $11k, FD: $12k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Overall Model Rank: #1

Without a star-studded field in play this week, Sungjae Im will check in as the man to beat… at least according to the Vegas odds. But does he make for a worthy DFS option as the highest-priced golfer in the field? I’d say so. Im followed up his Honda Classic win in 2020 with a T-8 here last season so he quite obviously has the right tools to navigate the difficult grounds of PGA National. The short term and long term form both look perfectly fine as well considering Im has only one missed cut in his last 18 PGA starts and he heads into this week with five finishes of T-11 or better in his last eight starts, including a win at the Shriners Children’s Open. He crushes it on paper as well where (in this field) he ranks 1st in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in Scrambling, 3rd in P4 AVG, 6th in BoB%, 17th in Driving Accuracy, and 26th in SG: App. The T-33 from last week’s Genesis Invitational may appear underwhelming on the surface but really he just had a rough Saturday round of 75 -- otherwise, he played well the rest of the way.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 16/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #5

Despite taking a near three-month long hiatus from competitive golf, Oosty returned to action at the WM Phoenix Open, gained strokes in all major categories, and went on to post a highly respectable T-14 result. It was an encouraging sign from a guy who was a top 10 machine for most of last season which included three runner-up finishes. Oosthuizen has never had great success at PGA National, having made only 2-of-6 cuts with the two made cuts ending in good-but-not-great finishes of T-21 (2017) and T-24 (2018). But he’s also playing some of the best golf of his career over the past year and he should possess depressed DFS ownership as many would look to find the extra few hundred bucks to spend up for Sungjae Im.

Billy Horschel | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 18/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #35

Overall Model Rank: #8

Horschel hasn’t missed a cut since the US Open last June and he’ll tee up at The Honda Classic having finished no worse than T-36 in his last nine worldwide starts. He’s also checking in with excellent short term form after carding a T-11 (Farmers) and T-6 (WMPO) in his last two starts. The course history looks strong as well with Horschel landing finishes of T-4, T-8, and T-16 within his last five Honda Classic starts. Horschel’s iron play (126th in SG: App) is the only red flag to bring up, otherwise, he excels in every other key stat for this week: 21st in Driving Accuracy, 5th in P4 AVG, 6th in Bogey Avoidance, 4th in BoB%, and 16th in Scrambling. Horschel may be expensive, but his DFS salaries are far from constricting and he has about as much upside as anyone else in this medium-strength field, especially if he cleans up his iron play.

Mid-Priced Targets

Mito Pereira | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #30

As usual, the mid-range of DFS pricing is a tricky one to figure out (extra tricky this week) but it’s often where the most important decisions must be made. In this range are the golfers who are not considered to be “elite” in their tournament’s respective field but they still possess the talent and upside to break ahead of the pack and provide winning upside. For recent examples of winners emerging from the mid-range, see Joaquin Niemann (Genesis), Tom Hoge (Pebble Beach), Luke List (Farmers), Talor Gooch (RSM Classic), and Jason Kokrak (Houston Open).

So here we arrive at Mito Pereira. Pereira earned his PGA Tour card after winning back-to-back tournaments on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. He has shown a great deal of upside since joining the pro circuit where he has made 12-of-17 cuts, finishing no worse than T-40 in any event where he made the cut. He has also posted three top 6 PGA finishes as well as a T-4 at the men’s Olympic competition. Pereira’s game shines on courses where there is less emphasis on off the tee play and more focus put on sharp iron play. While capturing a T-15 at last week’s Genesis Invitational, the only major category where Pereira lost strokes was off the tee (-0.22) and he shined everywhere else. He has displayed positive putting splits on Bermuda greens as well and per the key stats model, only three golfers in this field rate out better than Pereira. So, while this may be his professional debut at PGA National, it would appear that he has the right tools in his bag to succeed. He makes for a great lower-owned dark horse pick in DFS and he could be a nice outright bet as well, especially if you can find him at 50/1 odds or higher.

Jhonattan Vegas | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #32

Overall Model Rank: #9

Vegas is a golfer who is going to pop up as a sensible play this week thanks to his elite ball striking paired with his promising course history. Vegas is definitely more of a bomber (3rd in Driving Distance) but you can be certain that he’s going to keep the big stick in the bag on many of these holes in order to increase his chances of finding the fairway. Assuming he accomplishes that, he provides strong iron play (19th in SG: App) and has made the cut here in each of the last five years, finishing T-30 or better four times in that span. Consider Vegas a worthy upside play this week. And once again, there are no certified “safe” plays in this sort of grueling event, but Vegas’ course history does offer quite a bit of comfort.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Overall Model Rank: #11

McCarthy finally saw his hot streak come to an end during his last start at the WMPO where he failed to make the cut, missing the weekend by a couple of strokes. Prior to that, he had ripped off seven straight made cuts which included five top 15 finishes. When McCarthy’s short game isn’t clicking at its usual elite level, then his ball striking (particularly his iron play) usually isn’t strong enough to carry him through some of those hiccups. But, more often than not, McCarthy will come through with stellar short game performance and he’s considered to be one of the absolute best putters on the PGA Tour. Whenever he is able to stay about even to the field in the ball striking department, he is often finding himself posting those juicy top 15 results. After missing his first three cuts at PGA National, McCarthy broke through with a T-3 performance at last year’s Honda Classic. No one should be surprised if he manages to pull off a similar result this week.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Lucas Glover | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 75/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Overall Model Rank: #3

On paper, Glover stands out in a big way in this price range and it’s hard to dislike him given those low-end salaries. He has made four of his last five cuts heading into this week, highlighted by a T-5 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Waialae Country Club, which is the host course for the Sony Open, possesses many similarities with PGA National so golfers who have success on one can often find success on the other. Glover has enjoyed his fair share of success at the Honda Classic in recent years, having made four of his last five cuts at PGA National. And not only has he been able to grind it past the cut line, those four made cuts have resulted in finishes of T-19, T-4, T-17, and T-21. Glover has shown some inconsistencies with his short game but if he manages to keep things fairly clean on and around the greens, then he should be about as dependable of an option as there is out of this salary range.

Greyson Sigg | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 135/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #27

Following a successful year on the Korn Ferry Tour, Sigg has found a legitimate amount of success on the PGA Tour as well. He has made 8-of-11 cuts and, as he looks to make his PGA National debut, his game would seem to be a strong course fit as you can tell by his 5th overall rank in the key stats model. Sigg has gained strokes on approach in all four events this calendar year and he also checks in at 5th in this field in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Scrambling. If things click with the putter (124th in SG: Putting - Bermuda), expect Sigg to outperform his DFS salaries for the week.

Satoshi Kodaira | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k

Odds: 175/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #41

As mentioned above with Lucas Glover, PGA National and Waialae CC (Sony Open) share many similarities so it’s reasonable to look at a golfer’s results from one course and apply their upside (or downside) to the other. Kodaira was able to land a T-12 finish at this year’s Sony Open and given his more traditional “fairways and greens” play style, it is no surprise to see him rank out well in this week’s key stats model. Kodaira managed to finish T-36 at last year’s Honda Classic, however, he is coming off of a missed cut in a Korn Ferry Tour event last week so I’d say he’ll be best reserved as a guy to sprinkle into GPP lineups. There are very few golfers in this super low-end price range that you’ll want to go heavy on this week.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-End Range:

- Joaquin Niemann | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.9k | GPP Preferred

After dismantling Riviera last week with a wire-to-wire win, it’ll be hard to pass up on some Niemann exposure this week. However, we always have to be wary of golfers coming off of a win as it can take quite the toll on a golfer mentally.

- Daniel Berger | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.8k | GPP Preferred

Berger could be considered the most talented golfer in this field and under normal circumstances, he would probably be the guy to beat this week. However, a back injury forced him to withdraw from the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and he returned to golf at the WMPO a couple weeks back where he went on to miss the cut. But make no mistake, if he’s past that back injury, he can easily win this thing.

- Keith Mitchell | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.4k | Cash & GPP

He’s a former winner here who enters with finishes of T-12 or better in four of his last five. His DFS salaries could make him a perfect anchor to more balanced builds.

Mid-Range:

- Brian Harman | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.1k | GPP Preferred

After a rocky start to the season, Harman has righted the ship as of late with a T-14 (WMPO) and a T-3 (AMEX) within his last three starts. He has a ton of course experience here (made 6-of-9 cuts) and is a fairly nice course fit.

- Taylor Moore | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k | Cash & GPP

There is always some added risk when targeting PGA rookies but Moore has looked the part of a professional as of late while making the cut in four of his last five starts, most recently posting back-to-back top 25s at The Genesis and Pebble Beach. He’s accurate off the tee (33rd Driving Acc.), he avoids making a ton of bogeys (13th Bogey Avd.), and he has been a strong scrambler (13th Scrambling) throughout the season.

- KH Lee | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.2k | GPP Preferred

Lee continues to grind out made cut after made cut, now making it into the weekend in his last eight starts. While he is not a golfer who dominates in any particular category, he has no major weakness either outside of a streaky putter (but that can be said about the majority of professional golfers). His poor Bermuda putting splits are concerning enough to keep him just outside of cash consideration for me personally but I love him for GPPs.

Value Range & Punts:

- Hudson Swafford | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.6k | GPP Preferred

Swafford has notched a PGA win already this year and has the sort of high-level iron play (12th in SG: App) that this course requires. His short game can be all over the place at times (125th in SG: ATG, 94th in Scrambling, 92nd in SG: Putting) but, with some luck in that department, he could make some noise this week.

- Stewart Cink | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.3k | GPP Preferred

The fact that Cink has made 11-of-11 cuts during his career at PGA National should be considered no small feat given its extremely difficult nature. The recent form is decent enough with made cuts in three of his last four and he came away with a T-19 at the 2021 Honda Classic.

- Ryan Armour | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.5k | Cash & GPP

In his last two starts, Armour landed a T-20 finish at the Sony Open and followed that up with a T-28 at Pebble Beach. The ball striking numbers were positive in both of those events and he returns to PGA National where he has made the cut in two of the last three years, highlighted by a T-12 in 2019.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!