By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour travels to Silvis, Illinois for the 2022 John Deere Classic which will be held at TPC Deere Run. With the Scottish Open coming up next week and the Open Championship (aka The British Open) following the week after, much of the world’s top golf talent is across the pond either preparing for those more heralded tournaments. And, we can’t ignore the fact that many other golfers have moved over to the LIV Golf tour, which will be hosting its second ever event in Portland, Oregon this week.

With those factors in mind, you’ll notice a very weak field is in play for the JDC. Only eight of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world are in attendance with the highest ranking golfer being world No. 58 Webb Simpson. This isn’t exactly anyone’s favorite tournament to watch but, despite the lack of star power, this event almost always provides plenty of excitement for golf fans. It’s a high-scoring event and offers some guys who aren’t already qualified for the Open Championship a final chance to meet the qualifications. Plenty of golfers notch their first PGA Tour win here as well. In the past, we’ve seen young stars like Collin Morikawa, Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, and Sungjae Im establish themselves here at the JDC. Overall, this is a full field with over 150 players and, as usual, the top 65 (and ties) will make it through to play on the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Deere Run

Par 71 - 7,268 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty (Last 5 Years*): 40th, 35th, 46th, 38th, 39th

Cut Line (Last 5 Years*): -4,-3, -2, -1, -2,

*Note: Course/event was not played in 2020 and was postponed due to COVID-19

TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 which stretches 7,268 yards and contains bentgrass greens & fairways and is surrounded by Kentucky bluegrass rough. It is a very scenic and naturally focused course that is devoid of any real estate. The fairways are some of the easiest on TOUR to hit and each year the fairway accuracy sits at around a 70% field average. The greens are large, carry some slope and undulation, and will run with a moderate pace at about an 11.5 on the stimpmeter. We will most definitely see plenty of scoring as TPC Deere Run profiles as a big-time “birdie fest” track and annually ranks as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour despite usually featuring a weak field. Dating back to 2010, the average winning score comes in right around 22-under par! Though, some potential high winds in the opening round may make hitting a winning score of 20-under (or lower) a bit more difficult this year.

While Par 4 scoring will remain a key stat as it is in many weeks, Par 5 scoring will be almost equally as important as it should account for close to a third of DFS scoring in this event. As usual, accurate approach shots will be vital to get into a better scoring position, and right around 40% of approaches will come in under 150 yards, making a strong wedge game a must. Many golfers will have plenty of course history to look back on as well, which is always a helpful bonus. Despite the lack of big names within this field, TPC Deere Run is a beautiful course to take in on TV (or in person) and often provides plenty of drama and close finishes down the stretch on the final Sunday round. I would give zero criticism if you choose to go light on your DFS bankroll for this event or skip it altogether. But I also believe it is important to at least pay attention to these weak field events. Many of the lesser-known golfers in play this week will be notable factors on the PGA Tour one day down the road so it’s helpful to get familiar with them early on!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday AM: Sustained winds around 10 mph with gusts into the high-20s.

Thursday PM: Wind speeds pick up around midday, sitting around 15-20 mph sustained, gusts in the mid-20s.

Friday AM: Pretty tame winds, mostly in the single digits. Potential for some rain, but nothing that threatens play too much.

Friday PM: Essentially the same forecast as the morning with less chance for rain.

Weekend: Nothing to worry about on Saturday or Sunday. Winds stay under 10 mph all weekend. Slight chance for a stray storm or two.

Verdict: The very early tee times on Thursday should receive the most favorable weather draw. Late Thursday AM tee times will still run into problematic winds in the back half of their rounds. I wouldn’t base too much DFS decision-making on the weather but the early Thursday guys should get a slight bump. If you post any first round leader bets, I would definitely lean towards the early tee times as well.

John Deere Classic Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Average | 15%

5. Proximity from 100-150 Yards (Short Iron Accuracy) | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

John Deere Classic Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Adam Hadwin | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th SG: App, 9th P4 AVG, 10th BoB%

Paying five figures for Adam Hadwin feels a touch unsanitary but it’s simply a testament to how weak the field is. We play the hand we’re dealt, however, and it’s not as if Hadwin hasn’t been hot. He’s coming off of a T-7 at the US Open and has posted four top 10s in his last nine starts -- all of those finishes came in significantly stronger fields, including a T-9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He brings some excellent tee to green form to this event, ranking 3rd in the field in SG: T2G. He hasn’t played here since 2016 and 2015, but he came away with strong T-8 and T-18 finishes those years. Hadwin sets up as a solid foundational target if you’re looking to spend up.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 30/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st BoB%, 1st P5 AVG, 27th SG: App

After enjoying a nice, consistent run for much of the season, McNealy enters this event having missed the cutline in his last two events and he posted a lackluster T-75 at the PGA Championship before that. But there is much to like about McNealy this week. At an event that features a ton of birdie scoring, McNealy leads the field in birdie or better percentage. He also checks in with the lowest Par 5 average of any golfer this week. McNealy landed a solid T-18 finish at last year’s John Deere Classic and he’ll tee off in the very first group on Thursday morning, which should guarantee him the best weather draw as he’ll avoid the more windy conditions come into play closer to midday. I’d look for McNealy to regain some of that mid-season form and get off to a good start here. I’d consider throwing down a first round leader bet on him as well.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Webb Simpson | DK: $10.6k, FD: $12k

Odds: 10/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #32

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th P5 AVG, 10th P4 AVG, 10th Short Iron Accuracy

Sahith Theegala | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #15

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd P5 AVG, 15th BoB%, 28th P4 AVG

Denny McCarthy | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 25/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #30

Key Stats Only Rank: #62

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th P4 AVG, 57th BoB%, 77th SG: App

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Nick Hardy | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #9

Key Stats Only Rank: #30

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 13th P4 AVG, 23rd BoB%, 65th SG: App

Hardy has been dialed in over the last month. He posted a solo runner-up finish on the Korn Ferry Tour in late May then hopped over to PGA Tour play where he came away with a T-35 (Canadian Open), T-14 (US Open), and a T-8 (Travelers Champ.). He gained strokes in every major category at last week’s Travelers Championship and will take on an even easier challenge against lesser competition this week. Expect plenty of eyeballs to be on Hardy’s name this week when building lineups, but he’s a strong play out of the top of the mid-range, especially if he sharpens up his iron play even more. Hardy does also have some course experience, having made both cuts at TPC Deere Run back in 2017 and 2018.

Adam Svensson | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 55/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th SG: App, 19th BoB%, 27th P5 AVG

It’s not often that the No. 2 ranked golfer in my model will be priced down in the mid-range, but Svensson finds himself there this week. He’s been competing at a high level as of late, making five consecutive cuts including back-to-back top 25s heading into this event. Svensson’s +4.41 strokes gained on approach last week ranked 12th in the field. While he does not possess the most consistent short game, if he simply keeps those irons hot, he should have another top 25 finish in him at TPC Deere Run. Svensson’s lone appearance at this course came in 2019 when he put up a T-18 result.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Lucas Glover | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 45/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #26

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th SG: App, 33rd Short Iron Accuracy, 39th P5 AVG

Chez Reavie | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #24

Key Stats Only Rank: #65

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 15th Short Iron Accuracy, 16th SG: App, 59th P4 AVG

John Huh | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #8

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 20th Short Iron Accuracy, 21st BoB%, 22nd P4 AVG

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Mark Hubbard | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Odds: 90/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #4

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th P5 AVG, 6th Short Iron Accuracy, 10th SG: App

The low-end range is going to be even more volatile and tough to predict than most other weeks… plenty of ‘scrub’ golfers down here. While Hubbard won’t exactly be at a basement-level price point, he does appear to bring some nice safety to the table and ranks out very well in my player model for the week. Hubbard has made eight of his last 10 cuts on the PGA Tour, including four straight. While there are no real splashy finishes in there, Hubbard has consistently competed well against much stiffer competition than what will be on display at the John Deere Classic. On top of the recent form, he ranks 10th or better in three of the five key stats for the week.

Joseph Bramlett | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 140/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #51

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 19th Short Iron Accuracy, 23rd SG: App, 27th BoB%

It was another great tee-to-green week for Bramlett at the Travelers Championship. His +7.38 SG: T2G ranked 11th in the field. The week prior at the US Open, Bramlett’s +13.10 SG: T2G ranked second only behind eventual winner Matt Fitzpatrick. Despite the excellent tee-to-green play, Bramlett has come away with pedestrian finishes of T-56 (Travelers) and T-37 (US Open). The lower-end finishes were a direct result of some truly awful putting -- Bramlett lost -9.72 strokes putting at the US Open and -7.99 strokes putting last week. It’s pretty difficult for a professional golfer to be *that* bad at putting in consecutive weeks so if Bramlett can maintain his T2G form and simply stay around even to the field in putting, he could come away with a surprisingly good result this week.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Taylor Pendrith | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 70/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #38

Key Stats Only Rank: #33

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 16th BoB%, 28th P4 AVG, 34th P5 AVG

Kelly Kraft | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #52

Key Stats Only Rank: #105

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 35th Short Iron Accuracy, 78th BoB%, 79th P5 AVG

Cameron Percy | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 250/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #17

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: App, 3rd Short Iron Accuracy, 34th P5 AVG

John Deere Classic Bets

For anyone interested, I’ll be posting my final betting card for the US Open over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 9:30 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I’ll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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