By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

Sam Burns emerged as an unlikely victor at last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge after he mounted an incredible seven-shot comeback in Sunday’s final round. He went on to beat world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, on their first playoff hole by sinking a 38-foot birdie putt. Coincidentally, those two golfers now hold the top two positions in the current FedEx Cup standings.

Golfers will prepare for another difficult challenge this week as they travel out to Dublin, Ohio to compete in the Memorial Tournament which is hosted by Muirfield Village Golf Club. This event annually plays host to an extremely high level of competition, as the world’s best show up in droves to honor one of the game’s greats, Jack Nicklaus, at his home self-designed course. Nearly every big name in the golfing landscape will be teeing it up this week. There are 21 of the top 30 ranked golfers in the world in attendance, as well as 54 of the top 100. The overall field will consist of only 120 players and the standard cut rule will remain in effect -- the top 65 golfers (including ties) following the first two rounds will stick around to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Muirfield Village Golf Club

Par 72 | 7,533 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 10th, 2nd, 13th, 30th, 13th

Cutline Last 5 Years: +2, +3, +1, E, +3

Muirfield Village GC was designed by The Golden Bear himself, Jack Nicklaus. The tree-lined fairways are wide by PGA Tour standards and golfers hit them upwards of 70% of the time most years. Many holes are designed to be more challenging the closer you get to the flag. Due to the thick and penalizing rough, golfers often elect to go “less than driver” off the tee in order to increase their chances of landing on those fairways. There are 13 water hazards and 74 sand traps in play as part of the course’s defense layout. A couple of holes are set up to play over large bodies of water as well. The overall design makes this very much a “second shot” course, so approach shots are the most important aspect of a golfer’s game this week. Guys don’t have to be overly long off the tee but their mid-to-long range irons need to be on point, as the vast majority of approach shots will come from the 150-200 yard range. Due to numerous elevation changes, this course will not play quite as long as its listed 7,533-yard scorecard length. The bentgrass greens at Muirfield provide additional challenges as they are small, undulated, and will run firm and fast.

Since Muirfield is a Par 72, that means there are four Par 5s in play. The longest Par 5 hole is just 588 yards, so those holes can theoretically be reachable in two shots for many golfers in the field. Getting birdie (or better) on these Par 5s is an absolute must. However, none of those Par 5s are cakewalks, and getting birdie (or better) is no easy feat. There are a few extremely tough Par 4s in play and three of the four difficult Par 3s will measure in at 200+ yards and will certainly lead to some bogeys. Even in ideal conditions, this course can play extremely tough and, as you can see where it is listed above, Muirfield has ranked inside the top 13 most difficult courses played in four of the last five PGA seasons. Don’t be surprised if we see several complete meltdowns from golfers this week. Let’s strap in for what’s sure to be another entertaining PGA event!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperatures & Rain: Some rain may move in on Wednesday night and soften up the course for the Thursday AM golfers, but plenty of sunshine is expected throughout all four rounds. Temperatures will largely hover in the 60s and 70s.

Thursday: Fairly calm winds in the morning. Sustained winds pick up to about 10 mph in the afternoon with 15 mph gusts.

Friday: Very similar outlook as Thursday. Calm in the morning with some winds (10 mph sustained,15mph gusts) entering the picture in the afternoon.

Weekend: Saturday looks ideal with hardly any wind to speak of. Sunday isn’t going to be too bad either with sustained winds maxing out around 12 mph and no significant gusts.

Verdict: It’s looking like some near-perfect weather conditions this week. Since the Thursday and Friday forecasts look nearly identical, there will be no expected advantage for either wave.

The Memorial Tournament Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%

> Emphasis on Mid-Iron Proximity (150-200 Yards)

2. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (P5 BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

The Memorial Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 10/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th P4 AVG, 9th P5 BoB%, 9th Bogey Avd.

I don’t mind attaching the occasional narrative to a player when it comes to PGA DFS and this week, Jon Rahm has a good reason to have a chip on his shoulder. Many may recall the unfortunate events that transpired surrounding Rahm in this event last year; after tying the tournament record with a Saturday round of 64, he was heading into the final round with a six-shot lead and was well on his way to defending his title after winning this event in 2020. However, Rahm ended up testing positive for COVID-19 following that third round and was forced to withdraw from the tournament due to health and safety regulations. It was some discouraging news, to say the least, but Rahm took it about as well as a golfer could take that sort of news. He may not be heading into this event in extremely dominant form but he is only a little over a month removed from his victory at the Mexico Open and he clearly knows how to navigate this tough course and shoot some low rounds.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #7

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd P4 AVG, 3rd Bogey Avd., 11th SG: App

Schauffele profiles as a safe option this week after posting top 15 finishes in three of his last four starts. Another top 15 result would be a highly reasonable expectation out of Schauffele this week considering he has finished no worse than T-14 at Muirfield in each of the last four years. Schauffele does not necessarily dominate in any single facet but he continues to maintain one of the best well-rounded games in the sport of golf. He’s both accurate and long off the tee, he possesses strong irons with a clever short game and reliable putter. Among the five key stats I have listed for the week, Schauffele ranks no worse than 21st in any one category. It seems hard to go wrong with using Schauffele as a lineup anchor this week.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 11/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 12th P4 AVG, 18th SG: ATG, 25th SG: App

Jordan Spieth | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th P5 BoB%, 9th P4 AVG, 11th SG: App

Shane Lowry | DK: $9k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #8

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st Bogey Avd., 7th SG: App, 19th P4 AVG

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Cameron Young | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 35/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #29

Key Stats Only Rank: #27

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th P4 AVG, 14th P5 BoB%, 40th SG: ATG

Cameron Young went into 2021 as the 504th-ranked player in the world. Now, after a highly successful season as a rookie on the PGA Tour, he enters this week ranked No. 30 in the world. Quite the come-up if you ask me. In his last three starts, Young has been dominant, posting finishes of T-3 (PGA Championship), T-2 (Wells Fargo), and T-3 (RBC Heritage). Course experience, or a lack thereof, has been a running concern with Young but he has proven the doubters wrong on many occasions throughout this season. He’s already one of the best pure scorers on Tour (4th in BoB%) and while his game is better suited for bomber-friendly tracks (8th in Driving Distance), he’s been able to flash upside in other areas of the game and is gaining strokes in all four major categories (OTT, App, ATG, Putting). I’d look for Young to post another splashy finish in his Memorial debut.

Mito Pereira | DK: $8k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 55/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #19

Key Stats Only Rank: #17

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th P4 AVG, 6th Bogey Avd., 8th SG: App

Another week, another Mito spotlight in the Weekly Drive. After a disastrous finish on the final hole of the PGA Championship which dropped Pereira from the outright lead down to a tie for third, he showed some serious resolve and came back out the very next week to compete at last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Not only did he come out to compete, but he notched an excellent T-7 finish. The guy was already showing plenty of promise in his rookie season, but the sort of mental fortitude he put on display last week tells me that this guy is for real. Many guys, rookies and veterans alike, would have gotten into their own heads and would have struggled for weeks to regain their form following a meltdown on such a big stage. Similar to the aforementioned Cameron Young, this will be Pereira’s first appearance at Muirfield but he has the right tools to succeed. His irons are already among some of the best on the PGA Tour, he scores well on Par 4s and manages to avoid bogeys. He has made 15-of-19 cuts this season (78.9%) including six consecutive cuts entering this week where his worst finish was a T-27.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Sungjae Im | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #12

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd Bogey Avd., 5th SG: ATG, 6th P4 AVG

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #11

Key Stats Only Rank: #22

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: ATG, 10th P4 AVG, 27th Bogey Avd.

Aaron Wise | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 75/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #16

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 18th SG: App, 22nd Bogey Avd., 24th P5 BoB%

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Brendan Steele | DK: $6.6k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #48

Key Stats Only Rank: #72

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 47th Bogey Avd., 62nd SG: App, 62nd P4 AVG

Steele’s season-long metrics don’t look great on paper, but he’s in play this week due to some impressive recent form. He is coming off of a T-9 at the PGA Championship which was also his fifth straight event in which he made the cut. He’s having a bit of trouble finding a groove with the putter, but everything else has been sharp and he has gained at least +9.5 strokes tee to green in three of those previous five starts. Steele also has ample course history on his side since he has made 9-of-11 cuts throughout his career at Muirfield. He’s a considerably better value on DraftKings where I believe he’s even viable for cash games. Probably more of a GPP play on FanDuel, but he’ll likely check in with very low ownership there. On DK, he opens up plenty of avenues to interesting stars and scrubs lineup builds.

Luke Donald | DK: $6k, FD: $7.2k

Odds: 400/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #70

Key Stats Only Rank: #42

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th SG: App, 16th SG: ATG, 53rd Bogey Avd.

It has probably been at least a couple of years since this name has popped up in one of my articles and honestly didn’t think I’d ever make mention of Luke Donald ever again. But the 44-year-old has been finding some new life this season. Donald has made five of his last seven cuts which include higher-end finishes of T-16 (Valspar) and T-25 (Wells Fargo). His iron play has been fully on point and he’s been wily around the greens as well. Donald is also another veteran golfer who has played many, many competitive rounds on this golf course. He’s made 9-of-11 cuts at Muirfield including a pair of top 10 finishes. I wouldn’t go crazy by putting him into a cash lineup, but he’s the stone minimum on DraftKings and only $200 above the minimum on FanDuel. So, simply making the cut would be instant value and I honestly think he could play into a top 40 or so finish by the time it’s all said and done.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Rickie Fowler | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #52

Key Stats Only Rank: #52

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 13th SG: ATG, 23rd P5 BoB%, 56th SG: App

CT Pan | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #26

Key Stats Only Rank: #38

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 32nd SG: App, 36th SG: ATG, 41st Bogey Avd.

Lucas Glover | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #58

Key Stats Only Rank: #56

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 20th SG: App, 65th P5 BoB%, 70th Bogey Avd.

The Memorial Tournament Bets

For anyone interested, I'll be posting my final betting card for the Mmeorial over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 9 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I'll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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