By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

After taking a week off during last week’s Zurich Classic team event, we’re back with a traditional stroke play event! The PGA Tour debuts a brand new event with the inaugural edition of the Mexico Open set to tee off at Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, Mexico. Outside of a few names, you will notice a lack of star power within this full field of 144 players. Jon Rahm (No. 2), Mexican native Abraham Ancer (No. 20), and Tony Finau (No. 25) are the only three golfers in the field who are ranked inside the top 25 of the OWGR. In total, only 14 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world will be on site this week making it one of the weaker fields this season. We’ll have to dig into some of the lesser-known golfers to find some DFS success. The usual cut rule will be in play so the top 65 golfers (including ties) after the first two rounds will qualify for the weekend. 

The Course Preview ⛳

Vidanta Vallarta

Par 71 | 7,456 Yards

Greens: Paspalum

Vidanta Vallarta is a Greg Norman-designed course that will be making its PGA Tour debut this week. It normally plays as a Par 73 for amateurs and features six (!) Par 5s, but the course will be toughened up for the pros this week and two of those Par 5s will be converted into Par 4s. Paspalum grass, which is a common grass type in tropical climates, will be featured from tee to green. Other Norman-designed courses on the PGA Tour include El Camaleon (Mayakoba) and TPC San Antonio (Valero) also feature paspalum greens and could be used as comp courses.

With this course coming as a 7,400+ yard Par 71, it’s going to play long and likely favor bombers as a result. Two of the four Par 5s check in at over 600 yards, there are a couple 200+ yard Par 3s, as well as a 297-yard drivable Par 4, which should be entertaining to watch golfers attack. Vidanta Vallarta does not feature many trees and it’s simply a wide-open course layout with larger-than-average fairways and greens. The primary course defenses will be water hazards, which are in play on more than half of the holes, and deep concaved sand bunkers. Since this course rests on the edge of the Pacific Ocean, the wind would also be considered a main course defense if it ever picked up, but right now it’s looking like that won’t be much of an issue this week.

Even without an abundance of premier PGA talent in this field and the adjustments that turned this from a Par 73 to a Par 71, we can probably expect ample scoring this week. The winning score might not break 30-under as we saw in Maui at the Sentry TOC, but somewhere in the mid-20s under par would not be surprising. Once again, the long hitters should be given an advantage here. After that, it will just come down to whoever can exhibit solid iron play, be crafty around the greens, and get hot with the putter!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Overview: The forecast is pretty similar for every round so I’ll keep this short and sweet. It’s going to be HOT with temps mostly in the 90s. Sunshine all week. No rain in sight. And, most importantly, wind speeds are not projected to get beyond 10 mph.

Verdict: Golfers will need to plan to stay a bit more hydrated than usual but other than the hot temperatures, it’s looking like some great golf weather! No wave advantage.

Mexico Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Approach | 20%

3. Driving Distance | 15%

4. Par 4 Average | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

7. Proximity from 175+ Yards | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

The RBC Heritage Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Note: I'll be taking a quick-hit approach when talking about some recommended golfers this week since this newsletter is being pushed out a little later than expected.

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.3k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 5/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #1

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 1st BoB%, 1st SG: App, 1st SG: OTT

+ Far and away the top golfer in this field.

+ 5/1 odds to win = a 20% win probability.

+ Some books have him as low as 3.5/1 to win. Those are prime Tiger kinda odds.

+ Ranks 8th or better in 6-of-7 key stats.

- Hasn’t been in absolute top form but it’ll be difficult to fade him in this weak field.

- Ranks 91st in SG: ATG so the short game needs to be on point if he’s going to win this tournament.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 18/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Overall Model Rank: #15

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 6th P4 AVG, 8th BoB%, 24th SG: OTT

+ Top Mexican golfer in the world, should be the crowd favorite.

+ High motivation to perform well in his home country.

+ Can go on serious birdie runs and doesn’t make many bogeys.

- Doesn’t have elite distance -- 292.8 yards/drive this season.

- Has missed his last two cuts and his best finish in his last start has been a T-33 (The PLAYERS)

Gary Woodland | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Overall Model Rank: #4

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: App, 7th Driving Distance, 10th

+ Form has been trending up with three top 8 finishes in his last six starts.

+ Great combination of distance + iron accuracy.

+ One of the best Par 5 scorers in the field.

- The putter has been unreliable at times.

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Davis Riley | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.8k

Odds:50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #17

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd BoB%, 21st Driving Distance, 23rd P4 AVG

+ Fairly inconsistent but major upside. Finished solo runner-up at the Valspar last month.

+ Elite birdie-making ability & can get hot with the putter.

+ Good distance off the tee.

+ Approach game isn’t top-notch but his long irons have been his best irons.

- 83rd in the field in SG: App.

- Two MCs in his last four starts.

Austin Smotherman | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Overall Model Rank: #33

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: App, 2nd Proximity 175+ Yards, 10th SG: OTT

+ Young player but he’s proven to be one of the best ball strikers in the field.

+ Solid length off the tee: 26th in driving distance.

+ Elite long irons.

+ Great chance to have one of his best PGA finishes in a weaker field.

- Not in the best of form. MCs in two of his last five starts.

- Short game is unreliable. 106th in SG: ATG, 98th in SG: Putting.

- Lacks extensive PGA Tour experience.

Wyndham Clark | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #42

Overall Model Rank: #36

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd Driving Distance, 36th BoB%, 36th P4 AVG

+ One of the biggest bombers in the field, trailing only Cameron Champ in average driving distance.

+ Short-term form has been trending up. Two top-35 finishes within his last three starts.

+ Big issue is his driving accuracy but that shouldn’t matter as much on this course, assuming he can avoid the water hazards.

+ Excellent putter. 11th in SG: Putting.

- Iron play isn’t great. 87th in SG: App.

- Hasn’t taken advantage of many Par 5s this season (99th in P5 BoB%).

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Tyler Duncan | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #8

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 15th SG: OTT, 15th SG: ATG, 19th BoB%

+ Form is great and he’s averaging the 6th most fantasy points (in this field) over his last five starts.

+ Entering off of a T-12 in his most recent stroke play event (RBC Heritage).

+ Ranks 28th or better in 6-of-7 key stats.

- Driving distance is the one statistical negative (Ranks 71st in this field, 283.7 yards/drive).

Joseph Bramlett | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #20

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 3rd in Driving Distance, 11th in SG: OTT, 20th in SG: App

+ Another guy with excellent distance off the tee.

+ One of the best ball strikers in this price range.

+ Reliable long irons. 16th in Proximity 175+ Yards.

+ Picks up a lot of birdies on Par 5s (15th in P5 BoB%).

- Short game is a major question mark. 97th SG: ATG, 113th SG: Putting.

- Two MCs and two T-48 finishes in his last four starts.

Scott Gutschewski | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.5k

Odds: 250/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Overall Model Rank: #44

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 11th P4 AVG, 13th SG: ATG, 13th Proximity 175+ Yards

+ Ranks out very well for a guy who is only $500 above the minimum (on both sites).

+ Enters this week having made three consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour.

+ T-18 in his most recent PGA start (Valero)

- Fairly average driving distance (284.3 yards/drive).

- Not a big-time birdie maker. 71st in BoB%.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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