By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

Welcome to one of the most exciting weeks in golf! It’s time for the world’s best to compete at The PLAYERS Championship! Widely regarded as golf’s unofficial “Fifth Major,“ this event annually boasts what is considered to be the strongest field we’ll see compete across the entire season. Unlike typical Majors, there are no amateur invites sent out and no “over the hill” veterans who receive a grandfathered invite for winning this event decades ago. Only current PGA Tour cardholders and a few select international players and qualifiers are eligible to receive an invite to The PLAYERS Championship. Each of the world’s top 10 ranked golfers, and 46 of the top 50, will be teeing up this week. They’ll be competing for what is now the largest purse in the sport’s history – $20 million with a record $3.6 million going to the winner. Also, exactly like a Major, there are 600 FedEx Cup points up for grabs. This is a large field event featuring 144 golfers in total and the typical 36-hole cut rule applies (top 65 plus ties make the weekend). The PLAYERS Championship has been held at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL every year since 1982 and the course was designed specifically for this tournament. Since the PGA realigned the schedule a few years ago, this will be only the fourth year since 2006 in which The PLAYERS has taken place in March as opposed to its former mid-May competition date.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Sawgrass

Par 72 | 7,256 Yards

Greens: Bermuda (Overseeded)

Course Type: TPC

*Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 16th, 23rd, 29th, 5th, 19th

*Cut Line Last 5 Years: Even, -1, -1, +2, -2

*Data excluded from 2020 since only one round was played before the tournament was canceled due to COVID.

TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 set-up which checks in at a moderate length of 7,256 yards. This is a Pete Dye designed course, which means it is intended to bully and intimidate golfers off of the tee by forcing them into picking the correct spots in order to set up better looks on approach. Errant shots can be very punishing with hazards and tricky landing zones looming around every corner of this course. The fairways are tight and tree-lined, the TifEagle bermudagrass greens (overseeded with Poa and bentgrass) are smaller than PGA Tour average and should run firm and fast (12+ on the stimpmeter), and there are 17 water hazards along with 88 sand traps to contend with. Weather, and wind in particular, can also become a primary course defense if it kicks up at any point (note: it will this week -- more on this in the weather section below). TPC Sawgrass is also home to one of the most iconic holes in golf: the Par 3 No. 17 “Island Green” which sees some major crowds and a ton of TV coverage which places immense pressure on every swing taken there. However, the closing Par 4 No. 18 is truly the defining hole of TPC Sawgrass… at least in the minds of most players and golf analysts. Water runs along and lines the entire 18th hole and it’s simply a great example of a Pete Dye design that forces golfers to be at the top of their game both mechanically and mentally. No. 17 and No. 18 are largely considered to be the best two-hole finishing stretch of any course on the entire PGA Tour circuit. 

TPC Sawgrass is a true second shot course – meaning it is more important what a golfer does with their approach shots rather than what they do off the tee. Approach shot accuracy is always extraordinarily crucial, but perhaps even more so this week. Ever since this tournament moved to March, most approach shots come from the 125-175 range, so mid-iron accuracy will be important for golfers this week. Traditionally, nearly 50% of all birdies scored at TPC Sawgrass come on the four Par 5 holes, so everyone should be expected to perform well there; golfers who play the Par 4s at or just below par will be the ones who climb the leaderboard in a hurry. Since the greens are small and feature considerable slope and run-off areas, around the green play should be taken into consideration as well because, inevitably, every golfer is going to need to get ‘up and down’ whenever they fail to hit a green in regulation. TPC Sawgrass is a grinder’s course so golfers who are mentally steadfast and can manage to avoid posting big numbers will also need to be targeted. With that in mind, those who excel in the “bogey avoidance” metric will take priority as well.

Course experience can be invaluable at TPC Sawgrass. In recent years, around half of all golfers competing at TPC Sawgrass for the first time have went on to miss the cut. One final note: salaries for this tournament were released much earlier than usual, so you may notice some golfers who look to be significantly mispriced, especially for certain golfers who competed well at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Feel free to take advantage! A more balanced approach will be great for cash games this week and I’d be extremely wary of delving too far into the “scrub” range even in the riskiest of GPP builds. One punt play in a lineup seems fine but going with multiple complete long shots feels unnecessary -- but that is just one man’s opinion. Good luck this week to the LineStar fam! Let’s get it!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday: Rain chances are fairly high throughout the day. Sustained winds at 5-10 mph with potential for 20+ mph gusts all day.

Friday: Scattered showers. Winds at <10 mph with no real gusts expected.

Weekend: Some risk of rain on Saturday but wind is the main factor to watch out for. On Saturday, sustained winds will consistently be in the 20-25 mph range with gusts up to 40+ mph. On Sunday,no rain is expected and the stiffest winds will be in the A.M. (~15 mph sustained, 20 mph gusts) with things calming down towards the afternoon.

Verdict: This is tricky because there is really no telling how things are ultimately going to play out with this weather… but it is certainly expected to be ugly at times. Rain across the first two days brings the risk of stoppages in play -- especially if any lightning is involved. If a stoppage ends up lasting for too long on either Thursday or Friday, that could easily force a portion of the second round into finishing on Saturday, which is of course when the wind conditions will be at their worst. With that in mind, golfers who have a better chance of completing their first 36 holes (prior to the cut line) WITHOUT running the risk of playing any of their second round on Saturday can be considered “safer” plays this week from a weather perspective. That will place the wave of PM/AM golfers in the better position in terms of drawing a potential weather advantage. However, that isn’t to say the AM/PM golfers should be knocked out of DFS consideration. If all golfers are able to complete their first two rounds before Saturday, then there likely will be no weather advantage.

Personally, I believe I will construct my player pool with about 60-65% of golfers in the PM/AM wave and I’m tempted to play only PM/AM golfers in my cash lineup.

The PLAYERS Championship Tee Times

As always, try to run a final weather check on Wednesday night (or very early Thursday morning) before locking in your lineups. Clicking on the images below will take you to the most up-to-date forecast pages.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

6. Mid-Iron Accuracy (Proximity 125-175 Yards) | 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Arnold Palmer Invitational Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Overall Model Rank: #2

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 2nd SG: App, 2nd Bogey Avoidance

When it comes to Morikawa and his chances to compete for a win any given week, it will essentially always come down to how effective he is with his short game. If he simply stays about even to the field in gaining strokes on and around the greens, his ball striking is so elite that he’s typically going to be a lock for a top 10-ish finish. And when he chips it well and a few of the more difficult putts happen to fall for Morikawa, that’s when he pushes for a victory. Due to the overseeded Bermuda greens running so pure, we’ve seen subpar putters find success at TPC Sawgrass over the years -- to see evidence of that, just look at last year’s winner, Justin Thomas, who is definitely not known to have the most consistent flat stick. Morikawa landed a T-41 in his PLAYERS debut last season, and the lower-end finish was largely due to losing -4.3 strokes combined in the short game (he gained +6.8 strokes ball striking). Given his form entering his second PLAYERS appearance (five straight top 7 finishes), I’d say Morikawa is a great bet to massively improve upon that 2021 finish in his second PLAYERS appearance.

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #1

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 1st Mid-Iron Accuracy, 2nd P4 AVG, 6th SG: App

JT returns to TPC Sawgrass to defend his PLAYERS Championship title from last season. He checks off about every box you could ask for this week. He dominates the stat sheet, his form is extremely strong as he heads in with five top 10 finishes in his last six starts, and he provides some super solid course history as well. Thomas has made 6-of-6 cuts at TPC Sawgrass with his best finishes being the win last year, a T-3 (2016), and a T-11 (2018). The only knock I can put on Thomas this week (aside from his likely high DFS ownership) is the fact that he has not competed since the Genesis Invitational, meaning he hasn’t played a competitive round since the PGA Tour shifted into the Florida swing. Otherwise, everything else screams “play JT” this week. 

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 20/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #6

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): NO

Best Key Stat Trends: 1st Bogey Avoidance, 1st P5 BoB%, 6th P4 AVG

How bad of a taste has the disappointing T-33 left in the mouths of DFS players who rostered Cantlay in his last start at The Genesis Invitational? I suppose we’ll find out once we see Cantlay’s ownership percentages this week! He has gained stroked tee to green in 14 consecutive starts and, prior to his last start, Cantlay had finished no worse than 9th in his previous six starts. The course history is a bit ambiguous as he has missed the cut at The PLAYERS in his last two starts but landed a pair of top 25s in his first two TPC Sawgrass appearances. He’s also the first player which I’ve highlighted who draws the a riskier Friday afternoon tee time (due to the potential weather situation mentioned above). Regardless, he makes for a great GPP play this week because the guy is simply a stud and will almost certainly go a bit under-owned this week due to that less-than-stellar finish in his last start. Also, due to the sheer amount of studs playing this week, rostering a golfer like Cantlay isn’t necessarily going to feel like a priority for many.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 28/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #3

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): NO

Best Key Stat Trends: 6th Mid-Iron Accuracy, 11th P5 BoB%, 12th SG: App

It wasn’t a dominant week, but in tough conditions last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Hideki grinded out a strong T-20 while gaining +5.92 strokes ball striking. The excellent ball striking has been a trend all season for Hideki. While he did miss the cut here last year, it was only by a single stroke. And if you remember back to the year prior when The 2020 PLAYERS Championship was canceled after one round as the risk of COVID became a more serious reality, Matsuyama was the first round leader after firing off a spectacular round of 63 (-9). All-in-all, he’s made 5-of-7 cuts at TPC Sawgrass with a pair of top 10s. His overall win equity is really strong for a golfer who is potentially going to check in at sub-10% ownership. Matsuyama’s AM/PM tee times will be enough to take him out of cash consideration, but he will be one of the more intriguing GPP plays out of the high-end range.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Overall Model Rank: #9

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 8th P5 BoB%, 16th P4 AVG, 21st SG: App

After taking home the hardware in two of his last three starts, Scottie Scheffler is going to be on just about everyone’s radar. He’s a tough golfer to ignore at this point and it would seem as if we may be getting him at a nice little discount this week. Despite being the 11th most expensive golfer on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Scheffler enters this week tied with the 7th best odds to win. Over the last three months, only Jon Rahm has gained more strokes tee to green than Scheffler. The 2020 PLAYERS Championship would have been Scheffler’s tournament debut, and he came out shooting an excellent round of 68 before the event was shut down. He missed the cut here on the number last season but he’s playing absolutely lights out right now and should be looking to contend for yet another trophy. 

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Daniel Berger | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 35/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #5

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 3rd Bogey Avoidance, 4th SG: Approach, 4th Mid-Iron Accuracy

In nearly any other event, a golfer like Daniel Berger isn’t someone who is going to be priced down in this mid-tier, but that is simply a testament to how strong this field is. After dealing with a back injury in late-January/early-February, Berger returned to action at the WM Phoenix Open where he went on to miss the cut by three strokes. He did not stay down for long, however, as he teed up a couple weeks later at The Honda Classic and looked no worse for the wear as he landed a solo 4th place finish. Sure, he fumbled the bag after entering Sunday with a five-shot lead and went on to shoot a four-over 74 to slide out of contention. But any golfer can have a poor round like Berger did on that Sunday -- that doesn’t negate the fact that he absolutely dominated the field over the opening three rounds. He’ll get a chance to redeem himself at another tough Florida course which will be played in some dicey conditions. Historically, Berger has been a golfer who has played well in windier conditions which is a major plus given this week’s forecast. Berger landed a T-9 at the 2021 PLAYERS and should provide ample top 10 upside once again.

Brooks Koepka | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #52

Overall Model Rank: #37

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 25th P5 BoB%, 32nd P4 AVG, 43rd SG: OTT

Koepka is one of the more volatile stud golfers out there but it’s important to remember that this man was considered (and ranked as) the best golfer on the planet not all too long ago. He is showing some glimpses of his former self as well following finishes of T-3 and T-16 in two of his last three starts. In both of those starts, he crushed it in the ball striking department. Koepka has also made the cut in his last four starts at TPC Sawgrass and has the type of game that can really translate well here. Every fan of the PGA Tour knows that Brooks really gets up for Major events and, while this isn’t technically a Major, it does tend to play like one. And with the actual Major tournaments right around the corner, you can bet that Koepka will want to continue to ‘sure up’ his form as much as possible. Perhaps he makes for a better outright bet than he does a DFS play, but this will still be a great chance to get Koepka into lineups at an affordable price paired with low ownership.

Billy Horschel | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #43

Overall Model Rank: #22

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 23rd P4 AVG, 26th Bogey Avoidance, 24th SG: OTT

Horschel continued his stretch of stellar golf last week when he notched a T-2 at the API marking his fourth straight finish of T-16 or better. In those last four starts, Horschel has gained strokes in every major category. The Florida boy is looking for his first victory in his home state and he seems to be inching closer and closer to that goal. He has some respectable history at TPC Sawgrass where he has made 6-of-8 cuts throughout his career with four top 30 finishes. While there is nothing wrong with Horschel’s $8,100 price tag on DraftKings (21st most expensive golfer), the $8,800 price tag on FanDuel (42nd most expensive golfer) is extremely soft when you take into account his recent form along with his 50/1 odds (T-19th best odds to win). 

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #24

Overall Model Rank: #10

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 13th P5 BoB%, 14th SG: OTT, 23rd SG: App

If you need an example of a golfer who is mispriced, look no further than the Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick. He is the 25th (DK) and 23rd (FD) most expensive golfer, yet his 40/1 odds to win are tied for the 15th best outright odds in the field. He enter The PLAYERS on the heels of a T-9 at the API last week, which was his third consecutive top 10 finish on the PGA Tour. Fitzpatrick was one of only a select number of golfers who gained strokes in ever major category last week (Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green, Putting). He also has some quality course history working in his favor at TPC Sawgras, having made his last three cuts here, including a T-9 last season. Fitzpatrick also draws the earliest tee time in round two (6:45 A.M. ET) so, if there is any sort of lengthy weather delay(s) which pushes some golfers into finishing their second round on Saturday in those heavy winds, Fitzpatrick is not going to be one of those guys (unless almost an entire day is lost due to stoppages).

Max Homa | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #55

Overall Model Rank: #41

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 5th P5 BoB%, 32nd SG: App, 39th SG: OTT

Aside from his missed cut at The Farmers Insurance Open, Homa has finished no worse than T-17 in his other four PGA starts this calendar year. He’s been getting it done with strong ball striking which has been anchored by terrific iron play. Homa’s +5.70 strokes gained on approach at last week’s API ranked 4th in the field. Were it not for a subpar week with the putter (-1.71 strokes putting), Homa could have easily turned in a top 10 result last week. The putter has not been a club that has failed him much this season as he has gained +11.57 strokes putting across his four starts prior to last week, so there is a likely chance we’ll see Homa bounce back with a better putting performance this week. He missed the cut in his PLAYERS debut last season but, given his much stronger form entering the week this go ‘round, I like Homa’s chances at another top 20 finish this week.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Sergio Garcia | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #85

Overall Model Rank: #43

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): NO

Best Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: OTT, 12th P5 BoB%, 28th Bogey Avoidance

It’s quite obvious why Sergio finds himself being highlighted in this week’s newsletter -- it has everything to do with course history. Garcia possesses the best and most extensive course history of any golfer in the field this week. He has never missed a cut at TPC Sawgrass in 16 starts. In that time, he has a win (2008), a pair of runner-ups, and his T-9 in 2021 was his fourth top 10 in his last eight starts in The PLAYERS Championship. Following a T-38 last week and a T-39 at The Genesis, Sergio doesn’t enter with poor form, necessarily, but it’s definitely not spectacular and we haven’t seen him truly ‘pop off’ on the PGA Tour since his T-7 at Mayakoba, which came all the way back in November. He also has a later tee time on Friday so, if inclement weather does force some golfers to finish their second round in the very windy Saturday conditions, Sergio may be one of those golfers. Still, with as much experience and success that he has here, he should be able to handle just about any wrench that TPC Sawgrass can throw at him. I believe there are safer options in this range for cash but he’ll certainly be someone to keep in mind for GPPs.

Talor Gooch | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #19

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: ATG, 14th SG: App, 15th Bogey Avoidance

The T-7 at the API last week marked Gooch’s eighth top 25 finish of the season, which leads all PGA Tour golfers. His putter has been suspect at times throughout the season, but he has impressed with great iron play and immense creativity around the greens -- those are two facets of the game which will be necessary to possess if one hopes to play well at TPC Sawgrass. Speaking of playing well at TPC Sawgrass, Gooch did just that and then some a season ago when he finished T-5 in the 2021 PLAYERS Championship while ranking 8th in SG: T2G. Now that he’s hitting season lows in DFS pricing and is coming off of a great showing in the previous week, I cannot find much reason to avoid rostering Gooch in this spot.

Alex Noren | DK: $7k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #63

Overall Model Rank: #55

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): NO

Best Key Stat Trends: 19th Bogey Avoidance, 49th Mid-Iron Accuracy, 63rd SG: ATG

When Noren is in form, he is a great example of a golfer who has a classic play style which helps him grind it out on difficult course set-ups like the one golfers will contend with this week. Considering he has made 7-of-9 cuts on the PGA Tour this season with a T-5 and T-6 coming within his last three starts, Noren’s form is clearly trending up in a big way heading into The PLAYERS Championship. He has a pair of top 20s in four career starts at this course as well. His long term stats don’t necessarily pop on paper right now but he’s really dialing it in with his irons lately and, over the last 12 rounds, he trails only Rahm, Scheffler, and Horschel in greens hit in regulation.

Chris Kirk | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Overall Model Rank: #20

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 4th SG: ATG, 23rd Bogey Avoidance, 25th P4 AVG

Kirk continued to massively outperform his DFS salaries after landing an impressive T-5 last week which marked back-to-back top 10 finishes and three top 15s in a row. In each of his last three starts, Kirk has gained strokes in all major categories. He’s also a veteran golfer with ample experience at TPC Sawgrass. Besides a withdrawal from The PLAYERS in 2016, Kirk has made his last eight cuts here which includes three top 15 finishes. You’re rarely going to see a golfer with these sort of DFS salaries carry anything close to the 80/1 outright odds to win which Kirk has this week. He’s also one of the golfers teeing up in the very first group alongside Matt Fitzpatrick on Friday morning, so there is low risk that Kirk will have to finish up his second round in the windy Saturday conditions should there be any lengthy weather-related stoppages prior to the cut being decided. The hot streak can end at any point but, as of now, Kirk is simply too clear of a value to look past this week.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #77

Overall Model Rank: #56

PM/AM Wave (Potential Weather Advantage): YES

Best Key Stat Trends: 28th SG: ATG, 33rd P4 AVG, 33rd Bogey Avoidance

As mentioned above in the course breakdown, this “scrub” range is to be navigated with caution but that doesn’t mean it needs to be completely ignored. There are still some exceptional golfers down in this range who have had plenty of success throughout this season. In McCarthy’s case, he has made nine of his last ten cuts while posting five top 15 finishes in that span. Now, if you’re familiar with McCarthy, you know that his game is carried massively by his elite putter and not so much his mediocre (at best) iron play. As you may also know, even the best putters fail to sink fairly routine putts from time to time and if the ball striking isn’t doing them any favors either, it’s easy for golfers to slide down the leaderboard in a hurry. So while he probably shouldn’t find his way into cash lineups, that doesn’t mean he gets pushed off the radar for GPPs. Besides, McCarthy is two-for-two on made cuts at TPC Sawgrass in his career and has more than enough upside to warrant some consideration at only a few hundred bucks above minimum salary. 

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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