By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

As much as I was personally hoping to will Aaron Wise to a win at the Memorial on Sunday (I had an outright bet on him at 66/1), Billy Horschel held it down and attained victory via an all-around complete performance, gaining at least +3.27 strokes in all four major SG categories.

We’re at an interesting impasse in the sport of golf right now. For the first time in recent memory, golf is at the forefront of discussion across sports media outlets and it DOESN’T involve Tiger Woods or any sort of Major tournament. As most golf fans are aware, a few well-known PGA Tour golfers have been signing some massive contracts with the new and controversial Saudi-backed LIV Golf tour, which kicks off its inaugural event in London this week as well. Most notably, 24-time PGA Tour winner Dustin Johnson announced his PGA resignation this week to play full-time on the LIV Golf tour, though he still intends to play in upcoming Majors. Other notable golfers who have chosen to sign with LIV Golf include Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Kevin Na, Louis Oosthuizen, and Ian Poulter. How the PGA Tour and LIV Golf choose to coexist will be an interesting storyline worth following moving forward. But we are here to discuss PGA DFS so let’s get to it!

For the first time in three years, Canada will host their RBC Canadian Open. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and more stringent Canadian health and safety protocols that have been in place over the last couple of years, this tournament has not been played since the 2019 season. The host course for the week will be St. George’s Golf and Country Club in Toronto, Canada. This will be the first time in 12 years that a PGA Tour event has been played on this famed course which is ranked well inside the top 100 golf courses in the world. A full 156-player field is on site this week and the traditional 36-hole cut rule is once again in play -- the top 65 golfers (incl. ties) will move on to play the weekend. With the U.S. Open arriving next week, some big names headline the field as five of the world’s top 10 golfers are teeing it up. However, it’s not an incredibly deep field and there is a significant drop-off in talent once you get past the very top guys. Only 18 of the top 100 ranked golfers are in this field so, as I said in LineStar chat, we may have to try to find some diamonds in the rough this week but that’s always a challenge worth taking on! Up for grabs this week will be an $8.7M purse with $1.566M going to the winner along with 500 FedEx Cup points!

The Course Preview ⛳

St. George’s Golf and Country Club

Par 70 | 7,014 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

At first glance, one may notice that St. George’s G&CC doesn’t possess much length. However, it’s a Par 70 that features an unusual layout. There are five Par 3s here and four of those will measure in at 200+ yards. There are also three Par 5s, all of which check in at 560 yards or under and should be reachable in two shots by essentially the entire field. There are some longer Par 4s as well, but also three of those Par 4s will measure in under 400 yards and are expected to provide excellent scoring opportunities for golfers this week.

The course features narrow, tight tree-lined fairways that are surrounded by some penalizing rough. Scattered throughout the course are 104 bunkers and a creek water hazard that will come into play on three holes. Without many doglegged holes in play, this course should play fairly straightforwardly and due to the hard-to-hit fairways, clubbing down from driver will be a popular strategy off the tee. The biggest challenge golfers are expected to contend with will stem from the tiny bentgrass green complexes which are thoroughly protected by bunkers, feature some tricky undulation, and average only about 4,000 square feet per green.

Some keys to success this week will center around having a sharp approach game since throwing darts onto these small greens will be crucial. Every golfer will inevitably miss their target at some point when they take their approach shots, so having a crafty short game will be a necessity as well. It’s a rare occurrence where this metric becomes a focal point, but with five Par 3s in play on this course, some weight should be placed upon Par 3 efficiency. Guys will need to take advantage of those three short Par 5s as well. When Carl Patterson won this event way back in 2010, he ranked fifth in Par 3 efficiency and second in Par 5 efficiency on the week.

We’re sure to have a tricky week of PGA DFS ahead of us but let’s see if we can make some magic happen nonetheless!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: It may be June but this is still Canada and temperatures will often be on the cooler side -- mid-50s in the morning with 60s and low-70s temps around midday and into the afternoon. The best chance for rain comes Thursday morning with some more rain possible, though less likely, on Friday afternoon.

Thursday AM: Some rain is in the forecast in the morning hours but as long as there are no complete downpours or lightning in the area, golfers may play through the wet weather. Sustained winds will be around 15 mph with 20-25 mph gusts.

Thursday PM: The rain dissipates around noon while the winds calm down a bit -- around 10 mph sustained, 15 mph gusts.

Friday AM: No rain but winds will still be around 10-15 mph sustained, with 20-25 mph gusts.

Friday PM: Pretty identical winds from the morning throughout most of the afternoon. Some rain may move in during the late afternoon though it may not cause any stoppages in play.

Weekend: Much calmer winds overall when compared to the opening two rounds. No rain is expected either so golfers will see some appealing conditions over the final two rounds.

Verdict: Some of those 20-25 mph gusts could cause some issues at times and the chance for rain throws a wrench into the mix since some sort of stoppage is possible. Since distance isn’t a major factor this week, more than likely a wet course would prove beneficial by slowing down green speeds and holding more tee shots onto the fairways. I could theoretically see a “receptive course” angle to be implemented for the AM/PM wave since they’re expected to play in the softer conditions. But overall, I don’t see a reason to attach any sort of significant weather advantage to either wave this week.

RBC Canadian Open Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 20%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

4. Good Drive Percentage | 10%

5. Greens in Regulation | 10%

6. Par 3 Average | 10%

7. Par 5 Average | 10%

8. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

RBC Canadian Open Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Cameron Smith | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: App, 1st BoB%, 1st P5 AVG

It’s feeling like an ideal week to hop back on the Cameron Smith train. Since golfers don’t need to be monsters off the tee and instead just need great iron play plus some short game magic to contend here, Smith sets up nicely at St. George’s G&CC. He leads the field in both SG: Approach and Birdie or Better Percentage, the two top stat categories for the week. Elsewhere, Smith shines around the greens (9th in SG: ATG) and rolls a strong putter (4th in SG: Putting - Overall, 19th in SG: Putting - Bentgrass). While Smith followed his win at The PLAYERS and T-3 at The Masters with a missed cut at the RBC Heritage, he has since bounced back to post back-to-back T-13 finishes in his most recent starts. In this weak field, a T-13-ish finish almost feels like his floor. I’m not too worried about the final round of 77 (+5) that he shot on Sunday at the Memorial. The course was playing very tough in general and not many golfers went low that day so I’d say to chalk it up as one rough afternoon and leave it at that.

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #15

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th SG: ATG, 7th P5 AVG, 9th SG: App

If you have some hesitancy to go with Fitzpatrick following his missed cut at the Memorial last week, hey, it’s understandable. But there are some glaring reasons not to nix him out of your player pool completely. First off, Fitzpatrick lost -7.57 strokes putting over his two rounds played last week, which was pretty easily the worst putting performance of his career. As far as tee to green goes, he was incredible, gaining +6.50 strokes T2G -- that actually ranked 14th on the week even though he didn’t even play the final two rounds. Even with the atrocious putting, Fitzpatrick ended up missing the cut right on the number. There is nothing to suggest that he’ll have another awful week with the flat stick. Professional golfers bounce back all the time following a poor showing on the greens and you can bet that Fitzpatrick has been devoting a little extra attention to his putting over the last several days. He has six top 10s in 13 PGA events this season, including a few top 5s and he checks in as one of the more accurate golfers off the tee in this high-end price range. Fitzpatrick hits a ton of greens in regulation and, in this field, he trails only Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas in SG: T2G over the last three calendar months. I’m all for going back to Fitz this week, especially if he’s going to carry some suppressed ownership following the missed cut.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $11.1k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 9/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd GIR, 3rd BoB%, 6th SG: App

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 10/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #4

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd P5 AVG, 3rd Prox. 200+ Yards, 3rd P5 AVG

Corey Conners | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #9

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd Good Drive%, 3rd GIR, 12th SG: App

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Rasmus Hojgaard | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #56

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

Hojgaard is not going to rate out well in many traditional models this week, mine included, because he simply doesn’t bring any PGA strokes gained stats to the table due to primarily playing over on the DP World Tour. However, in 11 worldwide starts this calendar year, Hojgaard has zero missed cuts and has carded five top 20 finishes. His two PGA Tour results from 2022 came by way of a T-18 at the Valero Texas Open and a solo 6th place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship, so he’s had some solid success when he’s traveled across the pond this year. In 36 measured rounds on the DP World Tour, Hojgaard ranks 37th in SG: Approach, 40th in SG: ATG, 36th in GIR, 29th in Birdies/Round, 28th in Par 3 Scoring, 55th in Par 5 Scoring, and 35th in SG: Total. So, while he isn’t smashing the stat sheet over in Europe, he’s solidly checking off a ton of boxes that we’re looking at for this tournament and course. And don’t get it twisted, there are plenty of talented golfers who play in those DPWT events that Hojgaard more routinely competes in. Hojgaard may need to tweak his game to suit this course a bit better because he does profile as more of a bomber (316.1 yards/drive, ranks 19th on the DPWT). But if he clubs down on the right holes and hits those narrow fairways at a decent clip, he could make some noise this week at sub-10% ownership. I like him as more of a GPP play than a cash play.

CT Pan | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #16

Key Stats Only Rank: #24

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th P3 AVG, 16th SG: App, 27th SG: ATG

As mentioned in the intro, there is a substantial drop-off in talent once you get below the elite tier of golfers. While that is often the case, that skill gap between the elite tier and the secondary tiers is much more prominent this week than most others. However, CT Pan stands out as one of the more reliable golfers out of the mid-range. He has gained strokes on approach in nine consecutive starts and has only one missed cut on his record within his last 11 starts which dates back to February. Pan is one of the better Par 3 scorers in the field, which will come in handy since St. George’s G&CC features that fairly unique Par 70 layout with five Par 3 holes set up throughout the grounds. On top of strong iron play and consistent cut-making ability, Pan mixes in fairly accurate play off the tee and a respectable short game. Pan’s lone PGA Tour win came at the 2019 RBC Heritage which is played at Harbour Town Golf Links, a course that bears some noticeable similarities to St. George’s G&CC.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Jonathan Vegas | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #20

Key Stats Only Rank: #22

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th P5 AVG, 14th BoB%, 15th GIR

Pat Perez | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #18

Key Stats Only Rank: #30

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th SG: ATG, 31st SG: App, 37th BoB%

Tyler Duncan | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #26

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd P3 AVG, 5th Prox. 200+ Yards, 16th Good Drive%

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

David Lipsky | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #14

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 21st P3 AVG, 22nd SG: App, 22nd Good Drive%

Lipsky is going to be a hard value to ignore, particularly on DraftKings where his $7,300 price tag places him as the 41st most expensive golfer (26th most expensive on FanDuel). Lipsky is having an excellent run in 2022 and has made 11 of his last 14 cuts, which includes a pair of top 10 finishes. He’s consistently gaining strokes with his irons and led the entire field in SG: Approach a few weeks ago at the Mexico Open where he went on to finish T-6. Lipsky has been very accurate off the tee, routinely hits greens in regulation, and (relative to his salaries) he crushes in the Par 3 scoring department. The sportsbooks have noticed all of these positive trends as well and his 80/1 odds are much better (on DK) when you compare him to other similarly-priced golfers. If he’s going to be super chalky in GPPs, perhaps he’s worth a fade or lowered exposure. But he’ll make for a strong cash game option if you’re trying to jam in a couple of the stud golfers into the same lineup build.

Christopher Gotterup | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 300/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #60

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

This week is as good as any to take a shot on some up-and-coming golfers. Gotterup will slide in as a big-time sleeper on the week but those who pay close attention to the sport of golf at all levels will know why he’s being highlighted as a GPP value play to consider. Gotterup is the 2022 Haskins Award winner which is given to the nation’s top collegiate golfer. He follows in the footsteps of other recent Haskins Award winners who have found plenty of success on the PGA Tour -- guys like Sahith Theegala (2020), Matthew Wolff (2019), Maverick McNealy (2015), Justin Thomas (2012), and Patrick Cantlay (2011).

Per the Haskins Award website: “Chris Gotterup, a fifth-year senior who is the top-ranked NCAA DI men’s college golfer in both the Golfstat and Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, transferred to Oklahoma from Rutgers for the 2021-22 season. He carded victories at the East Lake Cup and the Puerto Rico Classic, and recorded eight top-10 finishes in 12 events overall, highlighted by his two victories, a runner-up finish at the Big 12 Championship, and two top-3 finishes. Gotterup finished in fifth place at 1-over par at the NCAA Men’s Golf Championships Individual Championships.” While this will be his professional debut, Gotterup did compete in the PGA Tour’s opposite-field Puerto Rico Open back in March and went on to finish in a tie for 7th place. If he simply makes the cut, he’s returning value at these bottom-of-the-barrel salaries, but this is a kid who has the tools to do much more than that.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Matthias Schwab | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #22

Key Stats Only Rank: #29

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 12th SG: ATG, 14th P5 AVG, 28th GIR

Justin Lower | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 175/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #55

Key Stats Only Rank: #54

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 19th GIR, 35th P5 AVG, 40th SG: App

David Lingmerth | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k

Odds: 400/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #85

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

*Not enough PGA Rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

RBC Canadian Open Bets

For anyone interested, I'll be posting my final betting card for the RBC Canadian Open over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 8-9 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I'll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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