By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

Scottie Scheffler turned in yet another dominating winning performance last week at The Masters to continue his historical run and now the PGA Tour travels over to Hilton Head, SC to tee it up for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. Since this tournament immediately follows Masters week, the field for the RBC Heritage is often fairly mediocre with just a few bigger names sprinkled in. However, in recent years this event has drawn in more and more elite names. This will be a fairly strong field once again this go-‘round. In total, half of the top 10 ranked golfers in the world will be on site along with 24 of the top 50 and 51 of the top 100. There are 132 golfers listed in the field this week and we’ll see the normal cut rule come back into play – the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. I love this tournament as it takes place just down the road from me and was the first PGA event I ever attended personally. Harbour Town GL is a beautiful course that often provides plenty of entertainment and this edition should be no different!

The Course Preview ⛳

Harbour Town Golf Links

Par 71 | 7,191 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Difficulty Rank Last 5 Years: 26th, 37th, 11th, 19th, 29th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -2, -4, E, E, -1

Harbour Town GL is a classic Pete Dye-designed Par 71 course that extends to just under 7,200 yards on the scorecard length. The fairways are narrow and tree-lined and the Bermuda greens are some of the smallest on the PGA Tour. There are a total of 54 bunkers and 17 water hazards scattered throughout the course which golfers will need to navigate around. Most golfers will likely keep the big stick in the bag for the majority of holes because hitting these fairways is crucial. The average drive here tends to be only about 275 yards, which is well below the PGA Tour average. There is no doubt that bombers will have the opportunity to challenge with their driver on a few holes where they could carry over certain hazards, but for the most part, expect to see a less-than-driver approach taken off of the tee for all players on the majority of holes.

Pete Dye courses put a golfer’s mental fortitude and tee-to-green creativity to the test and they are intentionally designed to invoke challenging sightlines off of the tee. This forces golfers into finding the more optimal landing zones so they can better frame their approach shots when targeting these incredibly small greens. With the greens being so small, the greens hit in regulation percentage at Harbour Town GL is annually one of the lowest GIR percentages of any course on Tour. So, while an emphasis on accurate iron play is necessary, a crafty short game will also be needed since, inevitably, every golfer will miss their target on some approaches. The most common approach distance at this course will be in the 175-200 yard range, which gives the golfers with more accurate long irons a nice advantage. Many of those lengthy irons will be needed on the four long Par 3s, all of which measure between 190 to 200 yards.

The difficulty in which this course plays is heavily influenced by the weather. Since Harbour Town GL is right by the ocean, the wind tends to play a major factor. In previous years, wind speeds have caused this course to rank as either a moderately easy course when played in light winds or as one of the more challenging courses when played in heavier winds. We’ll get into the forecast in more detail below but the early outlook shows manageable winds for much of the week with the possibility of periodic gusty conditions.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday: Sustained winds ranging from 8-13 mph with gusts around 15-18 mph. Overall wind speeds look to be at their strongest in the late morning/early afternoon, with the heavier gusts primarily in the morning, but nothing overly problematic.

Friday: Sustained winds will max out around 10 mph with 15 mph gusts throughout the day.

Weekend: Very calm winds are expected on both Saturday and Sunday. Some rain chances enter the picture late Saturday and throughout the day on Sunday. As long as there is no lightning involved and it’s not heavy precipitation, they can likely just play through any rain that comes through.

Verdict: I'm not seeing a considerable weather/wave advantage but for first-round showdown contests (and for first-round leader bets), I’d maybe lean towards the PM wave slightly since it appears they’ll avoid the more significant gusts forecasted for the AM.

RBC Heritage Tee Times

As always, try to run a final forecast check on Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning just in case anything changes. You can click on the images below to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 20%

3. Par 4 Scoring Average | 20%

4. Driving Accuracy | 10%

5. Proximity from 175-200 Yards | 10%

6. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

The RBC Heritage Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Overall Model Rank: #6

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 3rd P4 AVG, 7th SG: App, 8th Driving Accuracy

Morikawa heads into the RBC Heritage following a solo-5th place finish at The Masters where he gained strokes in every category across the board (OTT, App, ATG, Putting), including +5.35 SG: Approach which ranked 8th in the field for the week at Augusta. His game is centered around exceptional iron play and sharp driving accuracy -- two qualities that translate very well to Harbour Town. He has just his second appearance in this tournament last year and Morikawa ended up ranking 2nd in SG: T2G (behind winner Stewart Cink) and came away with a 7th place finish. His around the green play (107th SG: ATG) is a major concern, but he did impress with +3.85 SG: ATG at Augusta last week, the 8th best mark in the field. His and Rory’s bunker hole-outs on No. 18 was certainly one of the highlights of Masters week so let’s see Collin carry that momentum into this tournament.

Shane Lowry | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #5

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 1st Bogey Avoidance, 3rd Prox. 175-200 Yards, 6th SG: App

Lowry is currently riding some very strong form after finishing T-3 at The Masters last week and T-12, T-13, and 2nd in his three previous PGA starts before that. He was able to come away with that 3rd place finish at The Masters despite losing nearly four strokes on approach -- something that is highly uncharacteristic of Lowry. He has played the RBC Heritage in each of the last three years and while he did miss the cut here in 2020 (when it was played in the fall), he landed 9th (2021) and 3rd (2019) place finishes in his other two attempts. Given his strong current form and notable success at Harbour Town in recent years, the Irishman makes for an appealing play up top this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #9

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 9th Bogey Avoidance, 10th SG: App, 11th SG: ATG

Another week, another Matt Fitzpatrick appearance in the LineStar Weekly Drive. Following his T-14 at The Masters, Fitz has now recorded a top 15 finish in five of his last six starts going back to the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. He’s enjoyed notable success at Harbour Town the last four years, making the cut each year and finishing with a pair of T-14s and a 4th place finish last season. Fitzpatrick’s strong iron play combined with a clever short game will be keys to his success this week. He also excels on Bermudagrass putting surfaces and ranks 3rd in the field this week in SG: Putting (Bermuda).

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Overall Model Rank: #2

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 4th SG: ATG, 8th Prox. 175-200 yards, 15th SG: App

Niemann is sticking out a little too much in the model to ignore. Following his win at The Genesis Invitational in mid-February, Niemann has struggled to find that same elite form while posting a missed cut (Honda Classic), a T-22 (PLAYERS), and a T-35 (Masters). It’s not as if he’s been bad, but perhaps he’s just dealing with a bit of a hangover from that win. Either way, he’ll be playing the RBC Heritage for only the second time in his young career, but in his professional debut here in 2020, Niemann notched an impressive 5th place finish. It’s not a key stat for me this week, but Niemann does rank 3rd in this field in Par 3 AVG and if you notice above in his “Top 3 Key Stat Trends,” he’s 8th in Proximity from 175-200 Yards. That may be a positive indication he’ll do well on the four Par 3s at Harbour Town, which all fall within that 175-200 yard length. I believe Niemann will go under-owned this week and makes for a strong GPP play. The only thing he needs to shore up is his driving accuracy (ranks 91st in the field). Missing fairways can get you into some trouble real quick at Harbour Town.

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Alex Noren | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 55/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #28

Overall Model Rank: #13

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 6th Bogey Avoidance, 38th SG: App, 40th P4 AVG

Noren feels like a strong play out of this mid-range and I don’t believe his ownership will be more than about 10%. Noren didn’t compete at The Masters last week so maybe that little bit of “out of sight, out of mind” recency bias may help drive down ownership. Regardless, he has been playing some great gold lately and has three top 12 finishes (and a T-26) within his last five-stroke play events. He also possesses a great track record on shorter courses (<7,200 yards) with Bermuda greens and average to difficult scoring conditions. That trend is apparent given his three starts at Harbour Town GL, all coming in the last three years, where he has finished between T-21 and T-28 in each trip. His form is in much better shape heading into this event than it has been in recent years so expect Noren to keep rolling.

Kevin Kisner | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #40

Overall Model Rank: #23

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 5th Driving Accuracy, 19th P4 AVG, 27th SG: ATG

Kisner has not been the most consistent guy around but he’s shown ample upside when his game is on point. He’s come away with three top 10s in 11 starts this season along with a runner-up finish to Scottie Scheffler at the WGC-Match Play. Kisner is a South Carolina native and returns to Harbour Town where he has made 6-of-9 cuts with three finishes of T-11 or better. He’ll need to play above his season average with his irons (97th in SG: App) but an accurate driver combined with a strong short game that features excellent Bermuda putting splits (6th in SG: Putting - Bermuda) will give him a solid foundation for success at this course.

Matt Kuchar | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #21

Overall Model Rank: #15

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: ATG, 3rd Bogey Avoidance, 5th P4 AVG

You can’t talk about the RBC Heritage without talking about Matt Kuchar. He has not missed a cut at Harbour Town GL in 16 starts here and in that time he has posted six top 10s, three top 5s, and a win (2014) with an average finish of 21st place. The form is looking strong as well following a T-16 at the Valspar and a T-2 at the Valero Texas Open two weeks ago. Kuchar is always in the mix when it comes to Pete Dye courses where a big driver is not a requirement to compete at a high level. While he did enter a bit of a slump between February and early March (three MCs and a T-67), he has the form trending up just in time to return to a course where he’s had some of the best success in his career.

Adam Hadwin | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #8

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 7th Bogey Avoidance, 11th Prox. 175-200 yards, 12th SG: App

This mid-range is loaded with enticing DFS plays so it was hard to decide on just four guys to highlight. But Adam Hadwin will round things out because the Canadian has simply been playing lights out golf. He has made 11-of-14 cuts on the season and comes into this event with three consecutive top 10 finishes: T-4 at The Valero, T-7 at The Valspar, and T-9 at The PLAYERS. He also smashes it on the stat sheet, ranking no worse than 21st in all six key stat categories for the week and 2nd overall in the stats-only model behind the top-priced player in the field, Justin Thomas. Hadwin’s course history is not incredible, but it’s not bad. He’s played this event in six of the last seven seasons and has made the cut four times with his best finish coming by way of a T-22 in 2017. I’d take no issues with rolling him out in both cash and GPP lineups this week.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Russell Knox | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank:

Overall Model Rank:

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 8th SG: App, 13th Bogey Avoidance, 15th Driving Accuracy

Knox has competed in The RBC Heritage for the last eight years. Unfortunately for him, he has not made the cut here in his last three attempts. However, Knox was a bonafide course horse during his first five starts at Harbour Town where he posted finishes of 9th, 18th, 2nd, 11th, and 40th. Could he regain that sort of success this year? It seems like a solid bet. Coming into this week, Knox has made his last seven cuts, including nine of his last ten. His game continues to profile as a great fit for Harbour Town as well so I wouldn’t be holding his recent history here against him too much.

JJ Spaun | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #46

Overall Model Rank: #30

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 22nd Driving Accuracy, 50th P4 AVG, 52nd SG: App

Spaun’s first career victory came two weeks ago at The Valero Texas Open and that feat qualified him for a spot in last week’s Masters tournament. Spaun showed now “first career win hangover” and ended up following his victory up with an impressive T-23 at Augusta National where he gained strokes across all four major strokes gained categories. He’ll look to keep his form in top shape when he returns to the RBC Heritage for the fifth time in the last six years. Spaun finished T-6 in this tournament in 2017.

Nate Lashley | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 175/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Overall Model Rank: #27

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 6th Prox. 175-200 Yards, 12th P4 AVG, 24th Bogey Avoidance

There are plenty of intriguing plays out of this low-end price range and it’s not uncommon for some of these “scrubbier” golfers to post solid results in this event. Lashley is on a nice run as well with four straight made cuts. Not only is he simply making cuts, but he is finishing high up on the leaderboard as well -- T-18, T-15, T-27, and T-7 in that span. It must be noted that his recent T-7 and T-15 finishes came in alternate events with weak fields but he still posted those top 30s in stronger fields (Valero & Valspar). His only previous start here resulted in a missed cut but he’s too cheap and is playing too well to overlook. I don’t believe you need to dip into this price range for cash plays, but I don’t hate him as a cash game option if you are trying to jam in three stud golfers or something like that. He’s firmly on the GPP radar for stars and scrubs builds, however.

Wesley Bryan | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 250/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #74

Overall Model Rank: #69

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 16th SG: App, 26th Prox. 175-200 Yards, 67th Driving Accuracy

Bryan is another South Carolina native so there are some local ties to go along with this punt play. His first and only PGA win came at this event in 2017 and, overall, he’s made every cut in four RBC Heritage starts, including a T-25 last year. The form has not been great for Bryan… but, hey, what do you expect from a guy who is barely above the minimum price tag? He has made the cut in his last two PGA starts including a T-15 most recently at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Given his course history, I believe he’s a decent bet to make the cut once again and if he does anything noteworthy on the weekend, he’ll smash these DFS prices.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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