Looking ahead at some DFS targets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour takes us to the Motor City this week as the Rocket Mortgage Classic is set to tee off at Detroit Golf Club. 2019 marked the inaugural edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, as well as the first time the PGA Tour played at Detroit GC, so we won’t have much course history to go off of this week. The overall strength of this full-sized 156-player field is below average but certainly an upgrade from last week’s 3M Open. There will be 28 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world teeing it up this week. We may have to dig a little deeper in order to find the more suitable value options among the lesser-known golfers but I, for one, welcome the challenge! The normal 36-hole cut rule is once again in play so the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move on to play the weekend rounds. Here’s to a slew of 6/6 lineups for the LineStar fam!

The Course Preview ⛳

Detroit Golf Club

Par 72 | 7,370 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Mix

First Tee: Thursday, July 28th at 6:45 am ET

2019 Cut Line: (-5)

2020 Cut Line: (-4)

2021 Cut Line: (-3)

2019 Winner: Nate Lashley (-25)

2020 Winner: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)

2021 Winner: Cam Davis (-18)

2019 Course Difficulty Rank: 42nd

2020 Course Difficulty Rank: 39th

2021 Course Difficulty Rank: 32nd

Detroit GC was designed by Donald Ross in the early 1900s. This will be just the fourth time this course will be featured on the PGA Tour circuit, so if you want to really get into some nitty-gritty research, it may be worth looking at player history at some other Ross-designed courses (East Lake, Plain View, Aronimink, Sedgefield). But as we saw the last three seasons, golfers didn’t have much trouble tackling this course and it turned into a complete birdie-fest, particularly in 2019 and 2020. I’d expect things to play out in a very similar fashion this go ‘round with a winning score in the 20-under range. This is a shorter-than-average Par 72 set-up and, since it is a traditional Par 72, that means there are four Par 5 holes in play which will allow for a flock of birdies and plenty of potential eagle opportunities as well. In each of the last three years, the average drive at Detroit GC has been over 300 yards with fairway accuracy hovering around 65-70%.

Detroit GC features a nice balanced blend of longer and shorter holes. The tree-lined fairways possess some noticeable ‘hilly’ undulation and are below average in width. There aren’t many doglegged holes so many of these fairways will be pretty much straight off the tee. There are 87 bunkers for golfers to navigate, including many that are guarding the preferred landing zones. However, there is just one water hazard to contend with. The mixed Bentgrass/Poa greens represent the primary course defense here, as they are smaller-than-average (about 5,100 square feet on average) and play tougher than most greens on Tour. They’re also protected by plenty of bunkers and primarily slope back to front while running moderately fast at about 12-13 on the stimpmeter.

The FedEx Cup Playoffs are now just two weeks away so the golfers who are on the bubble of qualifying for the playoffs (must be in the top 125 in FEC standings) will need to make some major moves over the next couple of weeks!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday AM: Lighter winds at 5-10 mph with gusts around 15 mph.

Thursday PM: Strongest winds of the entire tournament. Sustained winds are expected at 15+ mph with 25 mph gusts.

Friday AM: Very light 5 mph winds in the early morning with winds picking up to about 10 mph closer to midday.

Friday PM: Sustained winds around 10 mph with some gusts around 15 mph.

Weekend: The final two rounds look great as wind speeds should stay in the single digits on both Saturday and Sunday. Plenty of sunshine and no rain.

Verdict: Due to those Thursday afternoon winds, I’d say a decent edge should be given to the AM/PM wave. It’s not a huge weather advantage, but it’s enough to where I’ll be paying attention to tee times this week. And for anyone playing first round showdown contests or making FRL bets, definitely look to favor the early guys.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Average | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Rocket Mortgage Classic Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the key stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Cameron Young | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 18/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #19

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 1st SG: OTT, 2nd BoB%

Young has not played this course before but Detroit GC is a layout that should favor his game perfectly. He’ll be able to step into the tee box and bomb it down all of these straightaway fairways and set himself up with some short irons shots which should lead to plenty of promising birdie looks. After his form took a dip for a few weeks recently, he was able to bounce back on the big stage when he earned a runner-up finish at The Open Championship two weeks ago. Let’s look for him to parlay that momentum into this week. Do note that he will draw the less ideal PM/AM tee times. Regardless, he’s a great target for GPPs (strong pivot away from Cantlay/Finau) and should probably be fine for cash games as well.

Cam Davis | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 33/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #6

Key Stats Only Rank: #18

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 10th BoB%, 32nd P5 AVG, 35th SG: App

Davis returns to defend his 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic title, and he’ll have a decent chance to go back-to-back here at Detroit GC. He enters the weeks in excellent form after posting finishes of T-16, 6th, and T-8 over his last three starts with seven consecutive made cuts. He’s been able to pour in the birdies thanks to an improved approach game, and he’s gained strokes with the putter in eight of his last nine starts. Davis will also be teeing off early Thursday morning so he could be able to take advantage of the more favorable wind conditions over the first couple of rounds.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $10.7k, FD: $12k

Odds: 11/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #9

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st BoB%, 1st P5 AVG, 4th P4 AVG

Tony Finau | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: App, 5th P4 AVG, 8th BoB%

Will Zalatoris | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 16/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #7

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: App, 5th SG: OTT, 7th BoB%

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #24

Key Stats Only Rank: #58

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: Putt (Bent), 6th P4 AVG, 76th BoB%

DMac is never really going to ‘pop’ in any statistical models due to how much his game leans on the short game, primarily the putter. But, hey, he is proving that you don’t have to be an elite ball striker to find some success on the PGA Tour. McCarthy has been a cut-making machine this season and he has just one missed cut spanning across his last 13 starts. He’s also coming into this event with three phenomenal finishes of T-6, T-7, and T-5 within his last four starts. On top of that, McCarthy will be teeing off with one of the first groups on Thursday morning so he’ll be able to avoid the more impactful winds that are forecasted to blow in during the afternoon. If he manages to have a solid week with his irons, expect him to push for another top 10 finish.

Mark Hubbard | DK: $8k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 55/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th SG: App, 8th P5 AVG, 9th P4 AVG

I was a little surprised to see Mark Hubbard pop up as the No. 2 ranked golfer in my model for this tournament, but it doesn’t take much digging to see why he ranks out so well. Hubbard has been dialed in with his approach game and he is carrying a super reliable flat stick. He’s not a guy who is going to hit many 300+ yard drives but he’ll find plenty of fairways. Hubbard’s mid-range and long-range irons are good enough to make up for some lost distance to some other guys who will be able to bomb it down the fairways and he proved his game translates well to this course when he notched a T-12 here in 2020. Coming into this week, Hubbard has recorded great finishes of 4th, 3rd, and T-13 in his last three starts and he’s made seven consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour. He’ll also draw one of the earliest tee times of the day on Thursday (6:56 am ET) so he’ll look to take advantage of the calmer morning winds.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Chris Kirk | DK: $7.8k, FD: $10k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #4

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 10th P4 AVG, 12th SG: OTT, 16th SG: Putt (Bent)

Joohyung Kim | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 55/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

Taylor Pendrith | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #22

Key Stats Only Rank: #23

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: OTT, 20th BoB%, 25th P4 AVG

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Michael Gligic | DK: $7k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #21

Key Stats Only Rank: #43

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 16th P5 AVG, 17th SG: Putt (Bent), 36th SG: OTT

Gligic continues to play some really solid golf and yet his DFS prices hardly seem to budge. With his T-16 last week, Gligic has now made five consecutive PGA Tour cuts and if you don’t count the first round WD at the Canadian Open, he’s made it into the weekend in eight straight starts, finishing inside the top 40 seven times. Until he shows any signs of slowing down, it makes sense to stick with him for another week. Gligic’s putter has been hot (2.5+ SG: Putting in four straight starts) and he gained strokes in every major category at last week’s 3M Open. He currently sits 140th in the FedEx Cup standings so he is one of those golfers who will be looking to continue a late-season surge in an effort to crack the top 125 and qualify for the FEC playoffs in two weeks. Gligic also sneaks into the last group teeing off Thursday morning so he may benefit from the more favorable weather draw as well.

Lee Hodges | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #61

Key Stats Only Rank: #71

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 33rd SG: Putt (Bent), 34th SG: App, 42nd SG: OTT

Once you get into this salary range, you’re really just looking for a flier who can manage to make the cut and offer a tiny bit of upside for the weekend. Hodges fits the bill there. He has made five of his last six cuts, including a pair of top 25s at the Travelers and last week’s 3M Open. His +8.95 strokes gained on approach last week ranks second in the entire field and were it not for some bad luck with the putter (-3.78 SG: Putting), he would’ve landed a top 10 finish. Hodges is a top 30 ball striker in this field and he’s usually solid on bentgrass greens so, while I doubt he gains nearly nine strokes on approach again, he should be able to bounce back with the flat stick. He’s a good bet to at least make it past the cutline and, from there, he has shown that he can do a little damage on the weekend as well.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Nick Hardy | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9k

Odds: 110/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #39

Key Stats Only Rank: #30

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 17th SG: OTT, 17th SG: Putt (Bent), 23rd BoB%

Callum Tarren | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #57

Key Stats Only Rank: #24

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th SG: Putt (Bent), 35th SG: OTT, 44th P4 AVG

Chesson Hadley | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #53

Key Stats Only Rank: #97

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th SG: Putt (Bent), 75th BoB%, 81st P4 AVG

Rocket Mortgage Classic Bets

For anyone interested, I’ll be posting my final betting card for the Rocket Mortgage Classic over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 9:00 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I’ll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!