The Fall swing continues as we look ahead at some DFS targets for the Sanderson Farms Championship!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

Big congrats to the U.S. Presidents Cup team for their winning performance over the international golfers! The early season Fall swing continues as the PGA Tour travels down south to The Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. As we can typically expect in many early-season events, the field strength is going to be on the weaker side, with only 21 players inside the top 100 of the Official Golf World Rankings in attendance – defending champion Sam Burns (OWGR No. 12) being the highest ranked golfer in the field. Even without a huge amount of superstars on site, this is still a good time to get familiarized with some of the lesser-known PGA talent. It can certainly help further down the road! This will be a full-field event and the standard cut rule is back into play -- the top 65 golfers (including ties) after two rounds will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

The Country Club of Jackson is a traditional Par 72 setup that extends 7,460 yards and features four Par 3s, four Par 5s, and 12 Par 4s. This has been the host course for the Sanderson Farms Championship every year since 2014, so there is some strong, reliable course history to go off of with many of this week’s golfers. The course itself is not overly difficult; a winning score of 16 to 22-under has been achieved every year since 2014. However, in terms of difficulty over the last five years, the CC of Jackson has ranked 43rd, 31st, 26th, 26th, and 21st, so it isn’t always an outright cakewalk.

The mostly tree-lined fairways are about average in width but can feature tight landing zones which are protected by strategically placed bunkers on many holes. As a result, that will require reasonably solid accuracy off of the tee, as the rough here can be a bit penalizing. However, I will say bombers can find success here as well. If guys miss fairways but can routinely hit it 310+ yards and use a wedge out of the rough as they make their shorter approach shots, then that sort of “bomb and gouge” play style can certainly pan out favorably. The green complexes are elevated and fairly wide open, but they do possess a bit of slope and undulation while being protected by bunkers and numerous water hazards. Missing the greens on approach shots can create difficult ‘up and downs.’ The greens themselves are made up of Bermuda grass and will run somewhat fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter), but they should also carry consistent putting lines. Overall, accurate ball strikers who don’t miss a ton of fairways (or bombers with solid wedges) will reign supreme so long as their putter doesn’t completely fail them. Since this is a Par 72 course, a little extra emphasis should go toward some Par 5 scoring metrics as well.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Weather Verdict: It’s going to be a bit windy, especially on Thursday, but it appears as if golfers will face similar conditions in both the AM/PM and PM/AM waves. The winds begin to calm down over the weekend which should cede way to some low-scoring rounds.

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images above.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 BoB% | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Sam Burns | DK: $10.7k, FD: $12k

Odds: 10/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: Putt (Bermuda), 7th P5 BoB%, 10th BoB%

It is fairly uncommon to have one golfer that is so far above the rest of the field in talent, but that would be the case this week with Sam Burns, who returns to defend his 2021 Sanderson Farms Championship victory. Burns was one of the best performers at last week’s Presidents Cup and he brings huge birdie-making upside to the table this week. He combines strong ball striking prowess with excellent Bermudagrass putting splits. Burns’ ownership will be heavy but you don’t always need to avoid the chalk just for the sake of it.

Taylor Montgomery | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #11

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st BoB%, 2nd P4 AVG, 5th P5 BoB%

Montgomery made a big splash with his solo 3rd-place finish at the Fortinet Championship to open the 2022-23 PGA season. He was carried by an absurdly hot putting performance (+11.26 SG: Putt, led the field) that week. He lost -0.40 strokes T2G to the field, and that sort of insanely productive putting cannot rely upon week-to-week. But there will be much better ball striking days ahead for Montgomery and it was nice to see him carry his success from the Korn Ferry Tour over to a PGA Tour event, even if it wasn’t an incredibly strong field he was competing against. Montgomery finished T-9 or better in eight of his final 11 KFT events last season and he’s already setting himself up for a breakout rookie season on the PGA Tour. I’ll continue to buy some shares of the Montgomery hype.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Sahith Theegala | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #4

Key Stats Only Rank: #18

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th P5 BoB%, 19th BoB%, 36th SG: ATG

Scott Stallings | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 28/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #17

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th SG: Putt (Bermuda), 24th BoB%, 33rd P4 AVG

Emiliano Grillo | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 35/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 15th BoB%, 29th P5 BoB%, 30 SG: Ball Striking

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Taylor Moore | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #8

Key Stats Only Rank: #41

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 30th P4 AVG, 33rd BoB%, 43rd SG: ATG

In a week where the field doesn’t provide a huge amount of “safe” options, Moore is one golfer who stands out in the mid-range. He has made nine consecutive PGA cuts dating back to the Travelers Championship in late June. He has not posted consistently high finishes but he does have a pair of top six results in that stretch (T-5 at the Wyndham, solo 6th at the Rocket Mortgage). Moore lost a couple of strokes on approach at the Fortinet Championship two weeks ago, but he gained strokes in every other strokes gained category that week. He is two-for-two on made cuts at this event, including an impressive T-17 here last year. Moore once again stands out as a quality option, especially for cash lineup builds this week.

Justin Lower | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 70/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #39

Key Stats Only Rank: #63

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 20th BoB%, 24th P5 BoB%, 61st P4 AVG

Lower played some inspired golf at the Fortinet Championship which landed him in a tie for 4th place. He gained strokes across the board including +3.54 SG: ATG. Lower doesn’t necessarily pop on the stat sheet, but he hits a ton of greens in regulation (ranks 8th in GIR). He isn’t the most prolific ball striker, but if his strong around the green play from a couple of weeks ago continues, he should be able to make up some ground in the short game. Between the KFT (two events) and PGA Tour (seven events), Lower has made eight of his last nine cuts, including seven finishes of T-36 or better. His strong Par 5 scoring should keep him in the mix for a potential top 25 finish this week.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Thomas Detry | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #7

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 1st SG: Putt (Bermuda), 2nd BoB%

Trey Mullinax | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #9

Key Stats Only Rank: #25

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th P5 BoB%, 17th BoB%, 28th SG: Ball Striking

Andrew Putnam | DL: $7.7k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 75/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #28

Key Stats Only Rank: #64

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th SG: ATG, 21st SG: Putt (Bermuda), 24th P4 AVG

Low-Price/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings.

Davis Thompson | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #10

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th P4 AVG, 11th P5 BoB%, 12th BoB%

Thompson had a great showing at the Fortinet Championship, gaining strokes in all major categories. He has played most of his recent golf over on the KFT, but he has shown immense upside with five top 10 finishes, including a win, across his last 11 events. Thompson competed at this event last year and turned in a solid T-35. Given his DFS salaries, a similar result would return nice value but if he continues building on his play from two weeks ago, he has legitimate top 25 upside.

Harrison Endycott | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2k

Odds: 275/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #26

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th SG: Ball Striking, 9th P4 AVG, 50th SG: Putt (Bermuda)

We’re putting a lot of faith in one recent PGA start from Endycott, but he played exceptionally well with his irons at the Fortinet Championship, where he gained +6.07 SG: Approach (ranked 2nd in the field) and landed a T-12 finish. Endycott wasn’t the most consistent player over on the Korn Ferry Tour but, when he made the cut, he routinely turned in strong top 20 finishes. We must exercise caution with the cheap golfers who are largely unproven on the PGA Tour. However, in a weak field event, if Endycott continues excelling with his irons, he should be able to compete with PGA caliber talent on a fairly easy course layout that rewards sharp approach play.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Byeong Hun An | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #12

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th SG: ATG, 16th SG: Ball Striking, 18th BoB%

Zecheng Dou | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 90/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #18

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: ATG, 8th P4 AVG, 11th P5 BoB%

Lee Hodges | DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #37

Key Stats Only Rank: #74

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 39th SG: Ball Striking, 65th BoB%, 73rd P4 AVG

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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