PGA DFS Guide + Top DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | Shriners Children's Open ⛳

The Fall swing continues as we look ahead at some DFS targets for the Shriners Children's Open out in sunny Las Vegas!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads out to Las Vegas, Nevada for the Shriners Children’s Open, hosted at TPC Summerlin. Following a fairly weak field at the Sanderson Farms Championship last week, we’ll get some legitimate star power back into the mix for this event. This is a full-field event that will feature nearly one-third of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world. The week will be headlined by golfers such as Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, and many other players that even casual golf fans should be familiar with. The usual 36-hole cut rule will once again remain in effect as the top 65 (including ties) will move on to play the weekend!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Summerlin has been the host course for this tournament every fall since 1992, so there will be strong course history to rely upon this week. The course is a Par 71 setup that will play between 7,200 and 7,300 yards. Typically, TPC Summerlin will be one of the easiest courses golfers will play all season on the PGA Tour, and, weather permitting, a winning score will likely delve into the 20-under range as it has in eight of the last ten years. The cut line has also been incredibly low, at least 5-under in the last three seasons.

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 42nd, 48th, 39th, 38th, 10th*

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -5, -7, -5, -3, +1*

*2017 shows up as a major outlier here due to extremely windy conditions which limited scoring.

TPC Summerlin plays at an average elevation of 2,700 feet. The higher altitude will even the playing field a bit off of the tee as the shorter hitters won’t be outclassed as easily by their ‘bomber’ counterparts. There should be plenty of eagle opportunities as all three Par 5s can be reachable in two shots for the entire field. Out of eleven Par 4s, only two measure over 450 yards. The fairways here are generous, and even when golfers miss the short grass, the rough isn’t overly troublesome – the same cannot be said about the native areas, however. The bentgrass greens also aren’t overly small and will play at moderate and consistent speeds – around 11 in the stimpmeter. In general, I’ll be targeting guys who possess a strong approach game, have a high birdie or better percentage, and are reliable Par 4 scorers who can separate themselves from the pack. Golfers who roll it well on bentgrass greens will also be at a notable advantage. It’s a fairly straightforward DFS approach considering the relative ease of TPC Summerlin and its propensity to turn into a birdie-fest. Now let’s get into the weather, key stats to consider, and some golfers to target at each price range!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage for golfers either teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or for the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). Your top priority in PGA DFS is to get 6-out-of-6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line and into the weekend – from there, anything can happen! If there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!

Weather Verdict: Less than 10 mph winds basically all week and plenty of sunshine. Outside of maybe keeping some extra sunscreen in the bag, golfers should have no problems with the weather this week. There is no wave advantage to be had.

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images above.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 30%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 20%

4. Par 5 Average (P5 AVG) | 10%

5. Stroke Gained: Putting - Bentgrass | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Overall Model Rank: a golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model, which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which considers only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $11.1k, FD: $12k

Odds: 7/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st P5 AVG, 2nd SG: Putt (Bentgrass), 6th BoB%

It’s easy to see why Cantlay ranks atop the PGA model for this tournament as he makes his 2022-23 season debut. He enters on the heels of a strong Presidents Cup performance and five top 10 finishes in his last six starts in stroke play events. Only once in his last nine starts has he finished worse than T-14. Cantlay has also crushed at TPC Summerlin where he has finished T-8, T-2, T-2, and 1st in his four starts here. He is the class of the field when it comes to Par 5 scoring and he’ll be putting on bentgrass greens, which provide his best putting splits. It’s rare to see a golfer carry the sort of winning odds Cantlay has this week (+700). His DFS ownership is going to reflect his high win equity but Cantlay is a hard golfer to pass up on this week.

Taylor Montgomery | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #9

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: Putt (Bentgrass), 2nd BoB%, 3rd P4 AVG

Montgomery makes an appearance in a third consecutive edition of the LineStar Weekly Drive. We have to continue backing Montgomery until his play persuades us otherwise. Following his T-9 at last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship, Montgomery has six consecutive top 10 finishes between the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours. Going back even further, he has finished 15th or better in 13 of his last 16 starts. He is already making an early push for PGA Tour Rookie of the Year honors, and while it is still extremely early in the new season, he certainly has my vote. The only catch with Montgomery is that he has relied on his putter. However, he did also gain +4.22 strokes ball-striking last week. He has no professional course history here, but Montgomery is a Las Vegas native, so I’m sure he has much non-competitive experience at TPC Summerlin. If Montgomery can continue his electric play on the greens while gaining strokes in the ball striking department, expect some more high-end finishes to roll in -- especially on an easier course like TPC Summerlin.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Sungjae Im | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 11/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th P5 AVG, 9th P5 AVG, 14th BoB%

Tom Kim | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

 

Tom Hoge | DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #18

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: App, 25th BoB%, 31st P5 AVG

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Thomas Detry | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #14

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 4th BoB%, 36th SG: App

Detry has been making some waves with a pair of strong finishes in the first pair of stroke play events of the PGA season. He landed a T-9 at last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship, a T-12 at the Fortinet Championship, and the week before that, he cashed in a T-5 at the BMW PGA Championship over on the DP World Tour. He’s gaining strokes across the board and should have no issues taming an easy track like TPC Summerlin.

 

Taylor Moore | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #12

Key Stats Only Rank: #37

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 25th SG: Putt (Bentgrass), 31st P4 AVG, 33rd BoB%

One has to love the cut equity that Moore provides. After turning in a T-24 last week, Moore has now made 10 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour. His iron play was his best attribute at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he gained +4.80 stokes on approach against the field. The putter was a bit cold last week (-0.65 SG: Putting), but he has strong splits on bentgrass greens, so a bounce back with the flat stick could be in order out in Vegas. Moore landed a T-24 finish in this event last year, and he’ll be a solid bet to land another top 25 finish this week.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Taylor Pendrith | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #4

Key Stats Only Rank: #24

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 16th P5 AVG, 22nd SG: Putt (Bentgrass), 26th BoB%

 

Dean Burmeister | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 45/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #35

Key Stats Only Rank: #50

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st BoB%, 1st P4 AVG, 97th P5 AVG

Seamus Power | DK: $7.6k, FD: $10k

Odds: 60/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #30

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 11th P4 AVG, 13th BoB%, 26th SG: Putt (Bentgrass)

Low-Price/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings.

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 70/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #33

Key Stats Only Rank: #54

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 15th SG: App, 40th P5 AVG, 73rd BoB%

Rolling with a little course history play here. In three starts at TPC Summerlin, NeSmith has turned in finishes of T-14 (2021), T-8 (2020), and T-18 (2019). Following a missed cut at the Fortinet Championship to open the season, NeSmith had a major bounce back with a T-9 performance at the Sanderson Farms Championship last week. He was fantastic with his iron play and ranked third on the week gaining +6.26 strokes on approach. His appealing course history, low-end DFS prices, and enticing short-term form will keep him well within play this week.

Kevin Yu | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k

Odds: 350/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #42

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: App, 7th P4 AVG, 16th BoB%

Kevin Yu will be a volatile punt option, but he stitched together a complete performance last week where he gained strokes across the board, including an impressive +3.35 SG: OTT which ranked 4th among golfers on the week. He went on to finish T-19 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He profiles as more of a bomber (305.9 yards/drive last month) but his iron play has been sharp as well. If he can get things going with the flat stick, Yu will bring some real upside from the depths of the bottom-of-the-barrel DFS pricing this week. He was in the field for this event last year and came away with a T-27 finish. At the stone minimum of $7k on FanDuel and only $500 above the minimum on DraftKings, simply making the cut and pouring in some birdies on the weekend will return value.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Kurt Kitayama | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 70/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #25

Key Stats Only Rank: #36

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 40th BoB%, 45th SG: App, 49th P4 AVG

Lee Hodges | DK: $7k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #28

Key Stats Only Rank: #65

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 28th SG: App, 70th P4 AVG, 70th P5 AVG

Beau Hossler | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #79

Key Stats Only Rank: #109

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th SG: Putt (Bentgrass), 65th P5 AVG, 94th BoB%

Ben Taylor | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k

Odds: 175/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #15

Key Stats Only Rank: #39

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th P4 AVG, 27th P5 AVG, 46th BoB%

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

  • 1st place: $10 via PayPal

  • 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

  • ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!