By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

Whether you are a brand new or super casual golf fan, a diehard PGA Tour fanatic, or consider yourself to land somewhere in between, this is a week that brings fans from all walks of life together. It’s Masters week! As many know, this is the only PGA Major which is played at the same course every year. Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia is home to some of the game’s most legendary moments, and this week this iconic course will bring us the 86th edition of The Masters. Within this 91-player field, 48 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world will be in attendance, as well as about a dozen older past champions along with a few amateurs who earned special invites. Oh yeah, and the Big Cat is on the prowl, too. After suffering significant injuries in a car accident just barely over a year ago, injuries which many thought would end his golf career, Tiger Woods is set to make his professional return… on golf’s biggest stage, no less. You better believe any golf fan with a pulse is going to be glued to all the action waiting to take place down in Augusta National in the coming days! Also, remember that The Masters has its own unique cut rule where the top 50 players (including ties) will make the 36-hole cut.

Strategy 💡

The Masters is typically a tournament where I recommend people to get a bit aggressive and take a more GPP-heavy approach (but if you’re also playing cash games, a balanced build should work out quite well). As is the case every year, this is a smaller but extremely talented field and DFS pricing is very loose. You can likely go ahead and nix the roughly dozen or so golfers who are either older past champions (who receive automatic grandfathered invitations each year) along with the amateur players who are in the field through special qualification rules. Sure, a couple of those guys may make the weekend and possibly create some noise, but the cream rises to the top at Augusta National and you generally only want to focus on the golfers who are proven and in their prime.

That will pretty much leave us with about 70 or so golfers to truly consider as viable DFS plays for this week. Given that a tying score on the cut line is pretty much a guarantee, we’ll likely see around 55-60 golfers make it past the 36-hole cut. As a result, the 6/6 rate should be much higher than most other tournaments, that is unless several chalky golfers manage to miss the cut. You’ll need to figure out which guys you want to take stands on and which guys you’ll decide to lower exposure to or simply fade altogether. In my GPP player pool, I’d either want to be considerably under or far above the field in terms of player exposure. For instance, if we get closer to Thursday and it seems like Cameron Smith is going to be about 20% owned in GPPs, I would either look to set my exposure to him at around 5-10% or go heavy with 35+% exposure, depending on how I ultimately decided to construct my player pool. To each their own, of course, but this is just how I approach Masters week DFS! The important thing is to trust your process and have fun with it!

The Course Preview ⛳

Augusta National Golf Club

Par 72 | 7,510 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Type: Parkland

Course Difficulty Rank Last 5 Years: 7th, 11th, 16th, 7th, 2nd

Cut Line Last 5 Years: +3, E, +3, +5, +6

Augusta National GC is a traditional Par 72, with four Par 5s and four Par 3s, which extends 7,510 yards. You could argue that “course history” matters at Augusta National as much as it does on just about any other course on Tour. This course challenges every aspect of a golfer’s game, so creativity and having the ability to deal with uncomfortable situations are the keys to a successful Masters week. With an abundance of elevation shifts and three of the Par 3s measuring in at 180 yards or shorter, Augusta National ultimately plays even longer than its official scorecard length would indicate. Off the tee, golfers will face tree-lined fairways. The rough is traditionally very light but there are 41 bunkers and six water hazards to contend with. In place of troublesome rough, there are many areas off of the fairways where soft pinestraw could force golfers into hitting some difficult approach shots. The bentgrass greens are also some of the most challenging greens that golfers will face all season. In terms of surface area, they are on the larger side by PGA Tour standards; however, they can run extremely fast (13.5+ on the stimpmeter) and many of the green complexes feature some wicked undulations. The majority of the greens look almost like upside-down bowls and have drastic slopes on the edges which can cause some shots to runoff in frustrating fashion. Those runoff shops can be especially common when a golfer is chipping just off of the green or out of nearby a bunker.

As mentioned, players will have to be creative in order to find success here, and gaining strokes around the greens is one way to do just that. Players should also be expected to get much of their scoring done on the four Par 5s, as they are the easiest holes on the course. Where someone can truly separate themselves is through their Par 4 scoring. Since 2012, the leader in par 4 scoring at The Masters has finished 8th or better every year and has won six times. With rain soaking the course ahead of the tournament, it’s also possible we’ll see the course play soft but that also means it could play even longer since golf balls may not roll as far on the fairways -- at least for the first day or two. As a result, we may want to give golfers who are long and straight off the tee even more of an edge due to those course conditions. We’ll look for golfers who excel in those categories, throw in a mix of strong course history and recent form and we’ll see if we can find ourselves a Masters champ!

Let's Talk Tiger 🐅

Before getting into everything else, I feel like I must get "the Tiger talk" out of the way. On DraftKings, Tiger has a salary of $8,500 (21st most expensive golfer) while he is more palatable on FanDuel at $8,800 (41st most expensive golfer). Obviously, the pricing makes him more viable on FanDuel. Now, will I personally be playing him in DFS? It’s going to be a no for me, sadly. BUT, even though it may be considered a bit of a sucker bet at his current odds (40/1 or 50/1 on most sportsbooks), the FOMO is real and I’ll likely get my Tiger exposure for the week by way of an outright bet. I’ve seen some interesting tidbits of information out there which suggests Tiger is in better golf shape than many are giving him credit for -- and he has won The Masters five times, after all. At the same time, the man hasn’t played a competitive event like this since that unique edition of the Masters in the fall back in late 2020 and it’s not like he was in the best form prior to his car accident. There is truly no telling how well his body is going to hold up for (assuming he makes the cut) four full rounds of golf at a long and difficult course like Augusta National. But in case some Tiger magic takes place and he somehow pushes for a win this week, then placing an outright bet on him feels like the better play as opposed to rostering him in DFS. Just my two cents!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday: Following some heavy rain falling on the course earlier in the week, more rain looks to move through on Wednesday night which should create soft conditions Thursday AM. Sustained winds will be around 10 mph early and pick up to around 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts are expected to hit 20 mph, mostly in the afternoon.

Friday: Light 5-10 mph winds for much of the AM with 15 mph gusts. Around noon, sustained winds are expected to pick up to a bit over 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Weekend: Saturday’s forecast looks quite comparable to the Thurs/Fri rounds. Things calm down noticeable on Sunday with mostly 5 mph winds and gusts hitting only around 10 mph.

Verdict: I wouldn’t go making any major decisions based on a weather advantage just yet as both waves will have to deal with windier conditions when they play their afternoon rounds on either Thursday or Friday. With that said, the PM/AM wave could end up with a slightly better draw since it appears they may be able to play most or all of their second round in relatively calm conditions on Friday morning while the Friday PM golfers could be facing 25-30 mph gusts at times. As of now, I won’t be basing any DFS decisions around any sort of weather edge but be aware that some sort of advantage may develop in some capacity.

The Masters Tee Times

As always, try to run a final forecast check on Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning just in case anything changes. You can click on the images below to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 20%

4. Driving Distance | 10%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Note: Keep in mind many golfers in this week’s field do not have enough (or any) measured PGA rounds to qualify for strokes gained data. But those are mostly the amateurs and the aging past champions who are long shots to make some noise this week anyhow.

The Masters Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 12/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #1

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 4th SG: App, 4th P5 AVG

JT has all the qualities one might look for when searching for a potential Masters champ. His iron play is at an elite level, he’s statistically the best scorer on Par 4s in this field which are the holes where players looking to contend will separate themselves from the pack, his form is in top shape with six top 10s over his last eight stroke play events, and he has enjoyed some solid success at Augusta National. Thomas has made 6-of-6 cuts at Augusta throughout his career, highlighted by a 4th place finish in 2020 and, overall, he’s averaging a 19th place finish at The Masters. The only real negative to point out about JT’s game right now is his inconsistency with the putter. Obviously, you must putt well if you want to compete at The Masters. However, the flat stick is another club which has been trending up for Justin Thomas lately so it’s well within reason that he can roll it well this week. He’s been on the doorstep of a victory many times already this season and this could certainly be the week he pieces it all together.

Cameron Smith | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #2

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd P4 AVG, 2nd P5 AVG, 6th SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

There is no doubt Cameron Smith will be a popular play this week -- perhaps THE most popular play. His ownership could easily hit 25% in GPPs which, in a field this rich with talent, is an ownership number some may be uncomfortable with. However, I would hate to fade Smith with the way he’s been playing, both short term and long term. Not only does The 2022 PLAYERS champion have his recent win at TPC Sawgrass under his belt but he also won four starts ago at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and has turned in five top 10s in eight starts this season. In Smith’s recent wins, the field strength was extremely high on both occasions, much like it will be this week. No other player in this field has gained more birdies than Smith over the last 50 rounds and the Aussie should be well-equipped to handle the course conditions when things get windy out there. To wrap it all up, Smith has played extremely well at Augusta in recent years with three top 10s at The Masters in the last four seasons, including a T-2 finish in 2020.

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Overall Model Rank: #13

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 1st P5 AVG, 1st SG: Putting (Bentgrass), 6th P4 AVG

Following a lackluster T-33 at The Genesis, a missed cut at The PLAYERS, and an early exit in the WGC-Match Play event a couple weeks ago, Cantlay’s game does not appear to be in the same place it was in previous months. Cantlay opened the 2021-22 season with finishes of 4th, 9th, T-4, and 2nd across his first four starts -- and those results followed directly after his pair of wins in the FedEx Cup Playoffs to close out the 2020-21 season. Cantlay was also one of the stud golfers who went on to miss the cut entirely in the 2021 Masters -- something which should not happen for a golfer of Cantlay’s caliber. So there are some concerning trends with his game right now but when you’re as talented as Cantlay is, you don’t typically stay down long. With the public perception on Cantlay at a fairly low point right now, I believe he makes an excellent tournament target this week. If he pieces everything back together and gets his form to resemble something closer to the end of last season/start of this season, you can bet he’ll be able to contend this week.

Brooks Koepka | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 20/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #45

Overall Model Rank: #31

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 6th Driving Distance, 34th P4 AVG, 42nd P5 AVG

Koepka is not going to rank out well on the stat sheet due to some rocky long term form, some of which can be blamed on him perhaps not being completely healthy. Now that he appears to be in great health, he’s been able to display some of the skills which allowed him to claim the top overall spot in the Official World Golf Rankings a couple years back. While there are a pair of missed cuts in the mix, in Koepka’s last five starts (in stroke play events) he has three strong finishes: T-3 (WMPO), T-16 (Honda Classic), and T-12 (Valspar). He also made a deep run in the WGC-Match Play event a couple weeks ago prior to getting knocked out in a close quarterfinals battle with Dustin Johnson (who won the round “2 UP”). If you paid attention to golf when Koepka was the top ranked player in the world, you know why he earned that position in the rankings -- he dominated Majors. The guy lives for these sort of tournaments and he’s typically one of the better golfers when it comes to longer courses with difficult scoring conditions… aka the sort of courses usually featured in Major tournaments and the type of course which Augusta National profiles as. Koepka missed the cut at last year’s Masters but in the two seasons prior he landed finishes of T-7 and T-2 at Augusta National. If he gets some momentum going this week, look out!

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Sam Burns | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Overall Model Rank: #27

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 9th SG: App, 15th Driving Distance, 17th P5 AVG

First timers at The Masters have traditionally faced a steep learning curve and by no means should be expected to win. But, as Will Zalatoris (also a golfer I like this week -- just didn’t highlight him in the 'high-priced' section above) showed us last year en route to his runner-up finish to winner Hideki Matsuyama, young first timers at The Masters can still compete if they have the right tools to conquer Augusta. In the key stat rankings, Burns trails only Cameron Smith and Justin Thomas so it’s no question, he should be a strong course fit candidate. Burns ranks no worse than 24th in any of the six key stat categories highlighted for this week. The number of boxes he checks off is abundant. He’s long off the tee and pairs that with solid accuracy, he scores well on Par 4s and Par 5s, and he possesses a very capable short game. It’s not a key stat for the week, but Burns also ranks 10th in three-putt avoidance. If the greens dry out and run at their normal springtime speeds, they can be expected to play lightning-fast which will cause many golfers to three-putt and post some ugly numbers. As long as he adapts to the course quickly, Sam Burns should not be one of those guys who falls back. Out of all the guys teeing up at The Masters for the first time this week, Burns is the most appealing golfer out there in my opinion.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $8k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Overall Model Rank: #28

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 8th SG: Putting (Bentgrass), 11th P5 AVG, 23rd Driving Distance

Hatton’s experience in his first four trips to Augusta National were quite forgettable -- two missed cuts, a T-44, and a T-56. However, he landed a T-18 at The Masters last season and he enters the week with some impressive recent form. Hatton has been trending up for several months now and if you include his results from the DP World Tour, in this calendar year Hatton has posted results of T-6, T-4, T-2, T-13, and T-21 -- the latter three finishes coming in PGA events. When his game is in the right place, as it has been lately, Hatton displays strong iron play and a deadly putter; both aspects of the game that golfers will need to have in top form in order to compete for the green jacket this week. Hatton makes for one of the more intriguing mid-range plays.

Russell Henley | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #9

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: App, 14th P4 AVG, 14th SG: ATG

Outside of DFS circles, Henley likely won’t get much love this week. He doesn’t possess the sort of name recognition or past success at Majors that will garner him any serious media coverage. However, Henley has managed to make 11-of-11 cuts this season with a pair of top 10s and enters The Masters coming off of back-to-back T-13 finishes in two difficult events with talented fields: The PLAYERS and The Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s also displaying some of the absolute best iron play in this elite field and actually ranks out 1st overall in strokes gained on approach. Combined with strong Par 4 scoring and tenacious around the green play, I believe we should expect good things out of Henley this week. He hasn’t competed at Augusta National since 2018 but his last three results at Augusta National have been more than admirable: T-15 (2018), T-11 (2017), and T-21 (2015).

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Overall Model Rank: #16

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 5th P5 AVG, 8th SG: ATG, 15th SG: App

With these soft salaries (30th/24th most expensive golfer on DK/FD), the DFS sites are practically dangling Fitzpatrick in front of us like he’s a rib-eye steak and we’re a bunch of hungry dogs. Aside from his hiccup at The PLAYERS where he missed the cut, Fitzpatrick has been dominant this calendar year with PGA Tour finishes of T-6, T-10, T-9, and T-5. Fitzpatrick hasn’t missed the cut at Augusta in the last six years and he enters the 2022 Masters in some of the best form of his career. The Englishman is well-equipped to handle windy conditions and even when some of his approach shots do miss the target, he's crafty around the green play can often make up some ground in situations where many others in the field may struggle. When it comes to golfers out of this mid-range who could realistically push for a top five finish, Fitzpatrick is one of the names that really sticks out.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Max Homa | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #38

Overall Model Rank: #36

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 6th P5 AVG, 23rd SG: App, 43rd SG: ATG

He didn’t have the best showing in the recent match play event but Homa has been playing rock solid in stroke play recently with four consecutive finishes of T-17 or better -- most recently a T-13 at The PLAYERS. He’s not going to ‘wow’ you on paper but he does at least stand out with proficient Par 5 scoring and very capable iron play. If he simply continues to play well on the Par 5s while gaining strokes on approach, he should easily be able to make it past the cut line and, given his recent run of success, a top 25 finish doesn’t seem like a crazy proposition. Homa has missed the cut at The Masters in his two previous appearances, both of which have come in the last two years. However, both missed cuts were by a single stroke so it isn’t as if he completely blew up. He enters the 2022 Masters in more consistent form than the previous two seasons.

Robert MacIntyre | DK: $7k, $8.1k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: #46

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: N/A (Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained stats)

One aspect about Major weeks, especially when it comes to The Masters, is the fact that this may be one of the only (perhaps THE only) weeks in which many people even bother to play PGA DFS. That means many super casual fans are out there making lineups, some who may only recognize the name “Tiger Woods.” So when it comes to a European golfer, like Robert MacIntyre, who doesn’t typically make many appearances on the PGA Tour, a lack of name recognition alone can drive down ownership. MacIntyre sets up as a sharp play, however, especially for where his DFS prices reside. In his last four worldwide starts (two DPWT starts, two PGA Tour starts), MacIntyre has posted results of T-13, T-9, T-15, and T-35. In his Masters debut last season, he landed an impressive T-12. Also, in seven starts in Major tournaments, he has never missed a cut! In limited measured PGA rounds, MacIntyre has displayed a capable and lengthy driver and he’s shown he can get hot with the flat stick. Expect sub-10% ownership here on a guy who could easily post a sneaky top 20 finish.

Gary Woodland | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #28

Overall Model Rank: #30

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 11th Driving Distance, 20th SG: App, 35th P5 AVG

In Woodland’s case, I would not expect him to fly under the radar whatsoever. After recording finishes of T-8, T-21, MC, T-5, and T-5 across his last five starts, Woodland comes in as one of the hottest golfers in the field, yet he is priced below where he probably should be. Given Woodland’s considerable early season struggles combined with DFS salaries being released much earlier than normal tournaments, it’s not really a surprise to see Woodland priced down in this range. But en route to his T-8 finish last week at the Valero Texas Open, Woodland finished 3rd in the field gaining +6.07 strokes on approach. Woodland has not enjoyed the best success at Augusta throughout his career (4-of-9 made cuts) but he is a fairly recent Major winner (2019 US Open) and his game is obviously trending upward at the right time.

Kevin Kisner | DK: $6.8k, FD: $9k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #43

Overall Model Rank: #42

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 18th SG: ATG, 22nd P4 AVG, 41st P5 AVG

Long term consistency hasn’t been in Kisner’s bag for a while but he has been popping off with some excellent play lately. Most recently, he finished runner-up in the WGC Match Play event, and two weeks prior to that he boasted a solo 4th place finish at The PLAYERS. He’s also not all too far removed from a pair of top 10s that came back in January (T8 at the Sentry TOC and T-3 at the Sony Open). Kisner’s Masters history is not great by any means but it’s far from terrible -- 4-of-6 made cuts, best finish was a T-21 in 2019. Kisner leads all golfers in this field in driving accuracy and while he doesn’t provide a ton of distance off the tee, hitting a ton of fairways may come in handy when those winds pick up. Kisner’s short game will probably have to carry him a bit if he wants to have a strong Masters week but that’s been working out well on a fairly routine basis lately, so who’s to say it stops now?

Ryan's Betting Card

Note: This is currently my unfinalized betting card. I will be posting my final Masters betting card this evening on my Twitter for anyone interested (@Ryan_Humphires)

First Round Leader:

Cameron Smith 25/1

Tommy Fleetwood 50/1

Si Woo Kim 66/1

Kevin Kisner 80/1

Cameron Young 80/1

FOMO:

Tiger Woods (outright) 40/1

Outrights:

Cameron Smith 16/1

Brooks Koepka 20/1

Will Zalatoris 33/1

Tyrrell Hatton 66/1

Russell Henley 80/1

Hail Marys:

Gary Woodland 100/1

Robert Macintyre 125/1

Webb Simpson 150/1

Keita Nakajima 300/1

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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