By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The world’s very best make their way out to Oklahoma for the 104th PGA Championship which will be hosted by Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, OK. This is truly one of the most entertaining and challenging weeks of golf across the entire year. Not only is the level of competition rivaled by only The PLAYERS Championship, but the selected course for each year’s PGA Championship is meant to provide one of the toughest challenges for golfers each season. The field consists of 156 players and includes 96 of the top 100 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. One thing to remember this week – the cut rule will move to the top 70 and ties making the 36-hole cut.

If you enjoy storylines, this week has plenty of those in store. How will Tiger perform in his second competitive event since his major car accident? Does world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler stay en fuego? Can Jordan Spieth complete a career Grand Slam? Will Bryson DeChambeau’s big-hitting game be in competitive form following wrist surgery last month? How much will the windy conditions that are currently in the forecast impact play on what is already going to be a very difficult course? Well, we’ll find out the answers to all of those questions in the coming days!

The Course Preview ⛳

Southern Hills Country Club

Par 70 | 7,556 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Par 5s: Two; 656 & 632 Yards

Par 4s: 12; five over 450 Yards

Par 3s: Four; 173, 220, 226, & 230 Yards

Comp Courses: Augusta National, Bethpage Black, Muirfield Village, Shinnecock Hills

Southern Hills CC last hosted a PGA Championship in the 2007 season when Tiger Woods won, but it since underwent extensive renovations overseen by Gil Hanse in 2018-19. The most glaring visual changes included adding over 300 yards in length to the course while also getting rid of some trees, widening fairways, and turning the 83 bunkers from oblong into more naturally cut shapes which will produce some trickier lies. Narrow creeks, which can feed into larger bodies of water at times, run throughout the golf course (in play on 15 holes) and will come into play on tee shots, approach shots, and shots taken from around the greens. Perhaps the most impactful changes will be felt on and around the greens. The renovations shrunk what were already small greens and made them even smaller. They added more greenside bunker protection and also ‘shaved’ down the edges of the greens which will cause more balls to roll off the putting surface.

These fairways are wide but the extremely hilly nature of this course will still lead to many tricky lies. The rough is cut down and not thick at all, but that isn’t necessarily going to make things easier. The short rough will cause even some slightly errant tee shots and/or approach shots to roll and roll, potentially towards a hazard or into another precarious position. Talented shot shapers will be at a premium. Ten holes feature a doglegged layout so it isn’t as if only bombers will be able to overpower Southern Hills. Both Par 5s extend over 630 yards so no golfer will be reaching those greens in two shots.

A big emphasis must be placed on ball striking and the long irons this week. That is to be expected given the fact that this is only a Par 70 with 7,500+ yards of length on the scorecard. Crafty around the green play will be vital as well, including golfers who are efficient at sand saves. On many of these holes, simply scoring an even par is going to feel like landing a birdie, especially when the wind inevitably kicks up (more on that below in the weather section). Birdie scoring will of course be important but so will bogey avoidance. As is often the case for PGA Championships, this event will be won with the putter, but every other facet of a golfer’s game that has been mentioned before this sentence will need to be in top form for any player to have a chance at making a major move up the leaderboard via the flat stick.

We’re in for a wild week of golf so let’s get to it!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: There is not a ton of rain in the forecast to worry about and temperatures will range from the 60s/70s in the morning to the mid-80s in the afternoon.

Thursday AM: 10-12 mph sustained winds with gusts expected to hit 20-30 mph at times.

Thursday PM: 12-15 mph sustained winds without any significant gusts much stronger than that.

Friday AM: Oh boy, here’s what we need to keep an eye on. Sustained winds are expected to remain at 20 mph for essentially the entire morning with gusts reaching 45… maybe even 50 mph!

Friday PM: Winds drop down to around 15 mph in the afternoon with ~25 mph gusts.

Verdict: Wind is going to be a factor for basically the entire week. And remember, there is much less tree coverage on this course following the renovations so there will be no protection from the elements offered there. Right now, those Friday morning winds look AB-SO-LUTE-LY brutal. Avoiding those 45-50 mph gusts may prove to be essential. So, **IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS** a tee time advantage must be given to the AM/PM wave at this time.

More than about any other week, I will stress paying attention to the most up-to-date forecasts before locking in your player pool. Click the images below to see the most current forecasts and try to run a final check either Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning. The first tee will be Thursday at 8:00 am ET (7:00 am local time).

PGA Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 15%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

5. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

6. Sand Save Percentage | 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Putting - Bentgrass | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

PGA Championship Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in both average finishing position and average fantasy points over the last five starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $11.4k, FD: $12k

Odds: 11/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th P4 AVG, 11th SG: ATG, 27th Bogey Avd.

AM/PM Tee Time: No

We lead off with one of the usual suspects, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. Everyone is aware of the torrid stretch of golf he is on right now, so I’m sure there isn’t much convincing needed to be done here. However, even before his current run, Scheffler has been performing on big stages. He has competed in only two other PGA Championships, but he landed 8th and 4th place finishes there. In his last seven Majors, he has racked up a win (Masters ‘22), five total top 10s, and a pair of top 20s -- good for an average finish of 9th place. Not only does he have a penchant for playing difficult tracks extremely well, but he’s also performed well in windy conditions, ranking 6th in this field in SG: Windy Conditions (L24 Rounds). The notable downside is the fact that Scheffler does not possess a preferred tee time this week, so if the current forecast holds, he’s going to be fighting those brutal wind gusts on Friday morning. Given how well he has played lately, he should be able to find a way to battle through and make another podium run this weekend.

Justin Thomas | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 16/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 2nd Bogey Avd., 6th SG: BS

AM/PM Tee Time: No

Like we said last week, JT has pretty much done everything right this season but he simply hasn’t gotten over the hump and recorded a win. Will that change this week? Thomas has one Major win in his career and it came at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. He finished T-8 at The Masters and has landed inside the top 10 in seven of his last 10 starts. He crushes it on paper, ranking 13th or better in five of the seven key stats for the week (and no worse than 34th). Bentgrass greens have been Thomas’ best putting surface as well. So, just like basically any other PGA course where a hot putter will be necessary to win, Thomas sets up well for Southern Hill. He has gained the most strokes over the last 24 rounds in windy conditions, and he’ll need to continue that trend since he is another stud player who will be contending with those 40+ mph gusts on Friday morning.

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #7

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th SG: Putting - Bent, 8th SG: ATG, 13th SG: BS

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Rory enters this week on the heels of a 5th place finish at the Wells Fargo and a solo 2nd place finish at The Masters so there is absolutely nothing to dislike about his short-term form. The long-term form is perfectly fine as well, as Rory has missed only one cut in seven PGA stroke play events this season with four total top 10s, including a win (CJ Cup). The ball striking is looking very sharp and, though he is normally known for his prowess off the tee, he’s been picking up his approach numbers as of late. Rory also excels in that 200+ yard range, ranking 15th in proximity from those extremely long approach distances. Rory is a sharp player in windy conditions, which is no surprise given his Northern Irish roots. He does draw the preferred tee times this week but even the AM/PM golfers will be fighting some tough winds when they get out there on the course. He sets up with one of the best short games in this field as well, both around the greens and on bentgrass putting surfaces, so he could very well piece it all together and snag a Major victory this week.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Jordan Spieth | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #8

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 10th Bogey Avd., 15th P4 AVG, 19th SG: BS

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 30/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #4

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd Prox. 200+ Yards, 9th SG: BS, 11th Bogey Avd.

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Shane Lowry | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 28/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st Bogey Avd., 1st Proximity 200+ Yards, 4th Sand Save%

AM/PM Tee Time: No

The only thing keeping Lowry out of cash consideration for me would be the less-than-ideal tee time. Otherwise, he looks like an exceptional play at Southern Hills. If there is anyone out of this price range who could overcome the windy conditions, it’s likely going to be the Irishman Lowry who is 4th in SG: Windy Conditions over the last 24 rounds. His form is incredible right now following finishes of T-3, T-3 (The Masters), T-12, T-13, and 2nd over his last five starts. He has also crushed at other recent PGA Championships, with finishes of 4th, 8th, and 12th in this tournament across his last four attempts.

Max Homa | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 60/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #46

Key Stats Only Rank: #53

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 17th SG: BS, 46th Prox 200+ Yards, 68th P4 AVG

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

There is such a thing as a “winning hangover” in the sport of golf, but hopefully, Homa has recovered from that now that he is two weeks removed from his victory at the Wells Fargo Championship. Homa does not have a great track record in Majors, though he has made the cut in his two most recent Major starts, finishing T-48 @ The ‘21 Masters and T-40 at The ‘21 British Open. But the real appeal with Homa stems from his current form, which has been at an all-time career high over the last several months. In this calendar year, Homa has made 7-of-8 cuts with six finishes of T-17 or better. He’s posting excellent approach numbers and has averaged +3.4 SG: App over his last five starts. He also gets the preferred weather draw so he’ll set up as a highly intriguing GPP upside play.

Cameron Young | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #52

Key Stats Only Rank: #31

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 10th P4 AVG, 14th Prox. 200+ Yards, 16th SG: BS

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

The biggest mark against Young would be a lack of Major experience, as he has missed both of his previous cuts in Major tournaments. But, when you put that aside, everything else Young has done in his PGA Tour rookie season has been extremely impressive. He has posted T-2 and T-3 finishes in his last two starts and has four top 10 finishes in 15 starts this season with some other strong top 20-ish finishes mixed in as well. When he has missed the cut, it has typically only been by a stroke or two so he hasn’t been going out there and posting complete blow-up rounds. He profiles as more of a bomber (6th in driving distance) but his irons are trending up following +9.00 SG: App in his last two starts. So the elite ball striking potential is there, he’s been good around the greens, and he draws a favorable tee time. The only thing he’ll need to focus on dialing in is the putter as he does rank 106th in SG: Putting on bentgrass greens, but he has had success on other putting surfaces throughout the season (44th in SG: Putting Overall).

Others to Consider in this Range:

Will Zalatoris | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 33/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #11

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: BS, 5th Prox. 200+ Yards, 23rd Bogey Avd.

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #23

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th SG: ATG, 15th Sand Save%, 20th P4 AVG

AM/PM Tee Time: No

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Alex Noren | DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 140/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #15

Key Stats Only Rank: #28

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th Bogey Avd., 11th SG: Putt - Bent, 18th Sand Save%

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Noren sets up as a premium value option and, given his track record on the season, he seems to be a few hundred dollars too cheap on both sites. Noren has made 11-of-13 cuts in PGA Tour stroke play events this season and he’s not just making cuts, he’s making serious moves on the weekends. Noren has notched four top 12 finishes within his last seven starts and has made the cut in his previous three PGA Championship appearances, and four of his last five. Noren has a sharp short game but he’s been able to pull off so much success this season thanks to gaining strokes on approach in nine of his last ten starts. He shot rounds of 63 and 64 at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson. While this week will be nothing close to the birdiefest like last week, it’s at least nice to know that Noren has that potential to get hot and go low on the scorecard. He draws a preferred tee time and if you’re searching for a cheap golfer who looks good from both a cash and GPP standpoint, Noren appears to be one of the best options on the board.

Robert MacIntyre | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #76

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A (Not enough PGA rounds played)

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

MacIntyre spends most of his time over in Europe competing in the DP World Tour but he has played really solid golf whenever he makes the trip across the pond. On US soil, he most recently finished T-23 at The Masters, and, in the weeks prior, he posted PGA Tour finishes of T-35 (Valero) and T-15 (Genesis). MacIntyre has never missed a cut in his seven Major tournament appearances and Southern Hills is another tough golf course that should suit his game quite well. And his AM/PM tee time draw is another nice plus. This price range is loaded with some talented golfers, which is a testament to how elite and deep this field is. Given his lack of name recognition among the more casual American golf fan base, I’d expect MacIntyre to fly a bit under the radar in GPPs this week.

Mito Pereira | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #39

Key Stats Only Rank: #13

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th Bogey Avd., 6th P4 AVG, 11th SG: BS

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Pereira is one of the rapidly rising young players on the PGA Tour, but he is not a household name quite yet. I truly get some of the same vibes from his game that I felt with Collin Morikawa back in 2019 before he made his ascension to becoming one of the best golfers on the planet. Pereira has impressive irons and has been doing work off the tee as well. His putting performances have started to improve and he has made 13-of-17 cuts in his PGA Tour rookie season. Pereira enters this week with rock-solid finishes over his last four starts: T-17, T-26, T-13, and T27. His lack of Major experience will be the glaring concern, but as long as the stage isn’t too big for him, he should be able to hang with the big boys this week. As you can tell by his #13 ranking in the key stats model, his game should fit this course perfectly fine and he has ranked 15th in SG: Windy Conditions (Last 24 Rounds). He’ll draw a preferred tee time as well. I have Pereira marked as a “GPP Preferred” play but, honestly, if you truly need the savings, he’s probably a viable cash game play this week.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Kevin Na | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #74

Key Stats Only Rank: #66

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 27th SG: Putt - Bent, 46th P4 AVG, 51st SG: ATG

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

Sam Horsfield | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7k

Odds: 175/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #108

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A (Not enough PGA rounds played)

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A

AM/PM Tee Time: Yes

PGA Championship Bets

For anyone interested, I'll be posting my final betting card for the PGA Championship over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 8-9 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I'll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some Hail Mary wagers (100/1 odds or longer).

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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