Looking ahead at some DFS targets for the TOUR Championship!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

We have arrived at the grand finale of the 2021-22 season! The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings have earned the right to compete in the TOUR Championship which is held at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. This tournament has some unique scoring rules that you must be aware of before you go building lineups or making bets for this week. Golfers are assigned a predetermined starting score based on their position in the FedEx Cup standings. For example, Scottie Scheffler is first in the standings and will begin this tournament with a 10-under score. The further down in the standings someone is, the lower their starting score will be under par. Golfers who are seeded 26th-30th will be the only players who will begin the tournament at even par. This is the reason why golfer DFS salaries may look noticeably different to you this week.

I will link the FEC standings and playoff rules below. This will be another no-cut event so, barring a withdrawal or disqualification, all golfers will play four rounds. Do note that Will Zalatoris (No. 3 in the FEC standings) was forced to withdraw due to a back injury, bringing the total players in this field down to 29.

Who will be crowned the 2021-22 PGA Champion and capture the record $18 million payday? We’ll soon find out!

FedEx Cup Standings

FedEx Cup Rules Explained

Tournament-Specific Strategy ✍️

DFS strategy for this event is going to be a bit different than most weeks. With only 29 players to choose from, no matter who you draft, you’re rostering over 20% of the entire field within every lineup. If you utilize 100% of your salary in a lineup, it is almost guaranteed to be duplicated in any large field GPP (and nobody likes splitting money). The obvious way to avoid this is to leave some salary on the table – a couple of hundred bucks *at least*. The perfect lineups from last year’s 2021 TOUR Championship (which had the same unique scoring structure) are pictured below and, as you can see, on DraftKings there was $200 of ‘dead’ salary and $800 left over on FanDuel. In other seasons, there have been as much as a few thousand dollars left on the table in the perfect lineup(s).

The other aspect that makes strategizing around this tournament unique is of course the fact that golfers are starting with different scores from the get-go. Unless you’re taking the frontrunners like Scottie Scheffler (-10) or Patrick Cantlay (-8), the golfers you select will need to have some birdie-scoring upside and are capable of making an emphatic jump up the leaderboard to grab those valuable placement bonus points. Last year at the TOUR Championship, Billy Horschel was $5,100 on DK and $7,000 on FD. Horschel began the week at T-26 with an even par starting score (since he was 26th-30th in the championship seeding). He went on to finish T-9 with a 10-under score and was essentially a major ‘key’ punt play that unlocked the door to winning GPPs that week. Someone from that range may not necessarily climb the leaderboard as far this year, but that’s the kind of DFS play we need to try to find in the lower salary ranges.

Also, in general, I wouldn’t be afraid to “plant my flag” on a particular golfer or two and go all-in on them with 100% exposure. Most weeks that won’t necessarily be a great strategy but so many of these guys are going to possess insanely high ownership. Going 100% on someone will put you above the field and give you leverage if that golfer performs well. I also don’t plan on risking too much of my bankroll on this event considering how volatile the format is versus how small the field is. You can go as light or as heavy as you’d prefer, but personally, I’ll be risking about 10% of my bankroll on this event with a small betting card as well. Mostly, I’ll just be looking forward to watching the actual tournament while rooting on my guys.

The Course Preview ⛳

East Lake Golf Club is a Par 70 course that extends a lengthy 7,300-7,400 yards, depending on pin placement. The course features Bermuda-grass greens, Bermuda-grass rough, and bouncy Zoysia-grass fairways. It was re-designed by the famed Donald Ross in 1913 with further renovations being made by Rees Jones in 1995 and 2008. Other well-known Ross-designed courses include Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), Pinehurst No. 2 (three-time US Open host course), Aronimink Golf Club (2018 BMW Championship), Oak Hill County Club (host course of several PGA Championships & US Opens), along with many others.

We’ll have plenty of course history for many golfers in the field this week since East Lake has hosted the TOUR Championship every year since 2004. In the last five years, in terms of difficulty, this course has ranked 30th, 24th, 14th, 24th, and 31st. So, overall, this course tends to play slightly on the more difficult side of things.

The tree-lined fairways at East Lake are a bit narrow and contain large fairway bunkers that guard the preferred landing zones. The Bermuda-grass greens are East Lake’s primary defense. They are guarded by many greenside bunkers, particularly towards the front, and will be set up to run firm and fast (12+ on the stimpmeter). Even though, overall, these greens average around 6,300 sq/ft, which is right around the Tour average, some of the greens are large and multi-tiered with plenty of slope, while others are smaller and carry more back-to-front slope without tiered sections. Accurate iron play and a hot putter are essential every week, but even more so out at East Lake. 

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

With no cut and only 29 players in the field, tee times are all very close to each other, so weather should not factor into any decision-making this week. Regardless, except for some potential rain on Thursday, the forecast will provide mostly hassle-free golf weather with hardly any wind at all.

TOUR Championship Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

TOUR Championship Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the key stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

Golfers to Consider

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $13k, FD: $12.7k

Odds: 4/1 | Starting Score: -8

Overall Model Rank: #4

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th BoB%, 4th SG: Putt, 7th SG: ATG

Ranking No. 2 in the FedEx Cup standings, Cantlay is looking up at only one man on the scoreboard to begin the week, as he sits two shots back from Scottie Scheffler. With the Will Zalatoris injury withdrawal (No. 3 in FedEx Cup standings, would have started at 7-under), Cantlay will also have a little more breathing room directly behind him. Cantlay put on a ball striking clinic last week at Wilmington CC where he led the field with +9.19 SG: Ball Striking en route to his win. The BMW Championship victory marked his fourth finish of T-8 or better in his previous five starts. On top of all this, he’s the defending champ at East Lake so he knows what it takes to stay level-headed and play great golf on this high-pressure stage.

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10.8k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 9/1 | Starting Score: -4

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: Ball Striking, 3rd SG: Putt, 5th BoB%

The fact that Rory is starting the week six shots back from the lead yet he is still a +900 favorite to win should speak volumes. He led the entire field last week with +10.56 SG: Tee to Green and were it not for an uncharacteristically awful week with the flat stick (-4.56 SG: Putt), McIlroy likely wins instead of Cantlay. Nonetheless, he brings elite course experience to the forefront with a pair of wins at East Lake (2019 & 2016) and six top 10s in seven starts. Rory’s tee-to-green prowess could have him breathing down the tournament leader’s neck by the end of Saturday’s round.

Tony Finau | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 20/1 | Starting Score: -4

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 4th SG: Ball Striking, 4th P4 AVG, 11th BoB%

If you nix Finau’s awful six-over par opening round at the BMW Championship and throw it out of the equation, he didn’t have a bad week by any means despite the disappointing T-28 finish. He shot rounds of 68, 67, and 68 over the final three days last week, and his +7.75 SG: Total was tied for third in the field during that stretch. Finau has gained over 17 strokes on the field on three separate occasions this season, so if he plays to his ceiling, he’s entirely capable of overcoming his six-shot opening deficit to the lead.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 80/1 | Starting Score: -1

Overall Model Rank: #19

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th SG: Ball Striking, 16th P4 AVG, 16th BoB%

Morikawa was another golfer who had one round spoil his BMW Championship after he shot a 79 (+8) in the final round on Sunday. Really, it was just a single hole that accounted for most of the damage after Morikawa shot a disastrous quintuple bogey on the Par 5 12th. However, things were going quite well for Morikawa during the opening three rounds where he ranked 5th in the field with +5.33 SG: Ball Striking. It’s been an oddly poor summer of golf for Morikawa and, since he is starting nine shots off the lead, he’s not winning the TOUR Championship. But, at his best, he can shoot multiple rounds in the mid-60s and rack up a slew of fantasy points along the way... and he has shown flashes of being at his best recently.

Adam Scott | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 250/1 | Starting Score: Even

Overall Model Rank: #16

Key Stats Only Rank: #23

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 13th SG: Putt, 17th BoB%, 22nd SG: Ball Striking

After posting back-to-back T5 finishes in the first two FedEx Cup playoff events, expect Scott to be a popular value play this week despite starting ten shots back at even par. Once you get down into this price range, you are just looking for someone who can play themselves into top 10-to-15 contention. While Scott didn’t have a phenomenal performance in any one category at the BMW Championship, he was the *only* player in the field to gain strokes in all four major categories (OTT, Approach, ATG, Putting). That sort of well-rounded game can help him climb the ladder this week… if he can replicate it. While he hasn’t teed up at East Lake since 2019, this is a course that Scott has plenty of successful competitive rounds on with six top 10s in ten starts here.

KH Lee | DK: $6k, FD: $7k

Odds: 300/1 | Starting Score: Even

Overall Model Rank: #27

Key Stats Only Rank: #28

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 21st SG: Putt, 22nd SG: ATG, 27th SG: Ball Striking

KH Lee is a nice GPP pivot away from the higher-owned value plays like the aforementioned Adam Scott and the soon-to-be-mentioned Aaron Wise. He’s not going to rank out well in many stat models this week because he isn’t necessarily an elite ball striker. But he can score in bunches thanks to a capable short game and a putter that can get very hot. Simply look to his final round last week where Lee began his day with four consecutive birdies, went on to shoot an impressive round of 65 (-6), and punched his ticket into this week’s TOUR Championship.

Aaron Wise | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 300/1 | Starting Score: Even

Overall Model Rank: #18

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th BoB%, 15th SG: Ball Striking, 18th P4 AVG

Wise’s tie for 15th place at the BMW Championship proved to be just enough for him to earn the 30th spot in the FedEx Cup standings and sneak into the TOUR Championship. His ball striking has been the primary aspect of his game that has brought him to this point. Many other extremely talented golfers were unable to make it here so it’s a big feat for Wise, who hasn’t played at East Lake since his 2017-18 rookie season when he finished 15th. Another good week in the ball striking department will help Wise leapfrog some of the guys around him. Beyond a solid week of ball striking, a decent week with the putter may lead to him appearing in the final optimal lineup. Remember, we don’t even need a top 10 from these guys starting at (or near) even par. Two years ago, Mackenzie Hughes was one of the four golfers to start at even par -- he went on to post an 8-under score on the week which was good enough for a T-14 finish. Ultimately, he was an optimal DFS play on both DraftKings and FanDuel and appeared in all GPP-winning lineups.

TOUR Championship Bets 💸

It'll be a small card but you'll be able to find my final PGA bets over on my Twitter. I'll usually post it around 9:30 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I’ll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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