PGA DFS Guide + Top DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | Travelers Championship ⛳

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour rolls into Cromwell, Connecticut where TPC River Highlands will play host to the Travelers Championship. Following the US Open last week and the increasing exodus of players joining the LIV Golf tour, many top golfers will be absent from this event. However, this will still be a fairly strong 156-player field that features 39 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Jordan Spieth are just a few names that headline this tournament. The 36-hole cut rule will revert back to normal so the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move on to play the weekend.

Quick note: I’m currently on vacation but wanted to get a PGA article out there. However, some parts of this particular newsletter will be shortened to save some time.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC River Highlands

Par 70 | 6,852 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Annua Mixture

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 22nd, 32nd, 19th, 25th, 21st

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -1, -3, -1, -1, +1

Winning Score Last 5 Years: -13, -19, -17, -17, -12

TPC River Highlands is nearly the shortest course on the PGA Tour which will give a large portion of the field the ability to compete for a high finish since bombers won’t necessarily have any significant advantage. Instead, precision over power will be the name of the game. TPC River Highlands was redesigned by the famous Pete Dye back in 1982. Golfers will be visually intimidated off of the tee and forced into finding the correct landing zones in order to set up a more advantageous approach shot. There are a total of 69 bunkers that players will have to navigate, as well as four water hazards that come into play on a third of the holes. Elite ball strikers should thrive on this layout.

The fairways here are average in width but narrow considerably around the 300-yard mark. Many players will opt to club down to avoid the rough, which isn’t too troublesome so long as a ball lands in the first cut. However, that rough gets thicker and more problematic the further away a golfer misses from the fairway. In recent years, players hit these fairways at about a 67% clip, which is roughly 6% higher than the Tour average. A sharp mid-iron game is important, as about 45% of approach shots will come from a distance of 125-175 yards to the pin. The mixed bentgrass/poa annua green complexes average about 5,300 square feet, which is smaller than average by PGA Tour standards. They are softer, receptive greens that will run at moderate speeds (11-12 on the stimpmeter). Since this is a Par 70, there are only two Par 5s available and four Par 3s. However, there are still plenty of entertaining birdie holes scattered throughout but many of those scorable holes are high risk/reward in nature. Expect to see plenty of birdies and plenty of bogeys. This is sure to be another tightly contested, entertaining event that will likely come down to the wire with high-level competitors. Depending on the weather, we can usually expect the cut line to land close to even par with the eventual winner in the mid-teens under par.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage for golfers either teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or for the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). Your top priority in PGA DFS is to get 6-out-of-6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line and into the weekend – from there, anything can happen! If there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!

It’s looking like a pretty decent weather draw for this week’s tournament. The primary factor is always wind speeds and this week those winds should mostly stay in the single digits outside of Sunday afternoon. Some rain could come into play on Thursday but it is possible golfers will be able to play through the lighter stuff.

Verdict: No weather advantage for either wave.

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % | 25%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

5. Proximity 125-175 Yards (Mid-Iron Accuracy) | 10%

Travelers Championship Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12k

Odds: 10/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #4

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd BoB%, 5th P4 AVG, 10th SG: ATG

> The irons stayed hot for Scheffler at last week’s US Open. He ranked 2nd in the field gaining +9.21 SG: Approach.

> His +4.39 SG: Off the Tee ranked fourth in the field last week the overall ball-striking is in excellent form.

> Has either won or finished runner-up in five of his last 10 starts.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $10k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th BoB%, 6th SG: Ball Striking, 9th P4 AVG

> Xander’s game was not in top form at the US Open yet he still gained strokes in every key category en route to a solid T-14 finish in a loaded field.

> The floor with Schauffele is strong-- he’s finished T-18 or better in seven of his last nine starts.

> He returns to TPC River Highlands where he has finished T-20 and T-14 in two of his last three trips.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Rory McIlroy | DK: $11k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 10/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: Ball Striking, 5th SG: ATG. 6th BoB%

Sam Burns | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 18/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd BoB%, 8th SG: Ball Striking, 8th P4 AVG

Jordan Spieth | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #7

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th SG: ATG, 12th P4 AVG, 14th SG: Ball Striking

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Davis Riley | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 33/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #19

Key Stats Only Rank: #23

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th BoB%, 19th P4 AVG, 32nd SG: Ball Striking

> The dude has been on a mission recently with five finishes of T-13 or better in his last six starts.

> Posted a respectable T-31 at the US Open where he gained +6.73 strokes with his irons.

> This will be his debut at TPC River Highlands but it’s a course that fits Riley’s game very well.

Cameron Davis | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #22

Key Stats Only Rank: #24

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th BoB%, 19th P4 AVG, 29th SG: Ball Striking

> Davis has recent finishes of T-7 (Charles Schwab Challenge @ Colonial Country Club) and T-3 (RBC Heritage @ Harbour Town GL) -- two courses that play similarly to TPC River Highlands.

> Davis’ game benefits from courses that force golfers to ‘club down’ off the tee, which is something TPC River Highlands will require from golfers this week.

> Ranks 29th or better in each of the top three key stats for the week.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Aaron Wise | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #10

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 11th SG: Ball Striking, 15th BoB%, 30th P4 AVG

Brian Harman | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 60/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #27

Key Stats Only Rank: #49

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th P4 AVG, 37th SG: ATG, 57th SG: Ball Striking

 

Brendan Steele | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 75/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #33

Key Stats Only Rank: #78

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 28th Mid-Iron Accuracy, 48th SG: Ball Striking, 63rd SG: ATG

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #54

Key Stats Only Rank: #71

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 17th SG: ATG, 53rd BoB%, 66th Mid-Iron Accuracy

> Typically, Hughes is extra reliant on his short game but he has shown some improvements with his ball striking recently as well.

> Has finished T-24, T-28, and T-37 in his last three starts.

> Hughes has made 5-of-5 cuts at this event and posted a terrific T-3 finish here just two years ago.

Joseph Bramlett | DK: $6.7k, FDL $8.4k

Odds: 250/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #65

Key Stats Only Rank: #45

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 28th SG: Ball Striking, 46th BoB%, 60th Mid-Iron Accuracy

> It was a massive tee-to-green week for Bramlett at the US Open. His +13.10 SG: T2G was second to only the eventual winner, Matt Fitzpatrick.

> Unfortunately, Bramlett lost -9.72 strokes putting, the most strokes he’s ever lost putting in his career.

> He can likely bounce back with the putter this week and if the T2G game stays as strong as it was at the US Open, Bramlett has major sleeper potential.

Others to Consider in this Range:

Nick Hardy | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #42

Key Stats Only Rank: #54

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 37th SG: Ball Striking, 46th P4 AVG, 61st BoB%

Lucas Glover | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #53

Key Stats Only Rank: #33

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 24th Mid-Iron Accuracy, 38th SG: Ball Striking, 39th SG: ATG

Callum Tarren | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k

Odds: 250/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #75

Key Stats Only Rank: #88

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 50th BoB%, 74th P4 AVG, 76th SG: Ball Striking

Travelers Championship Bets

I'm not 100% certain if I'll be posting a PGA betting card this week, but if I do get one together, I will tweet it out over on my Twitter.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

  • 1st place: $10 via PayPal

  • 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

  • ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!