By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

After a wet and windy week at The PLAYERS which led to Cameron Smith winning during a Monday finish, we are set to (hopefully) return to a more normal week worth of golf! The PGA Tour stays in the Sunshine State for one final week as golfers get set to tee it up at The Valspar Championship which is held in Palm Harbor, FL at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course). This will be another large field event with 144 players on-site and the typical 36-hole cut rule continues to be in play (top 65 & ties play the weekend). This isn’t a super-loaded field, but we’ll still have plenty of talent to choose from as 10 of the top 25 ranked golfers in the world, and 36 of the top 100, are set to compete. Headlining this field are names like Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, and defending champ Sam Burns. The Masters is only three weeks away so for any golfers eligible to play in the upcoming Major who may be struggling, this will be a good week to get their form back into shape!

The Course Preview ⛳

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Par 71 | 7,340 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Type: Parkland

*Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 20th, 6th, 6th, 17th, 6th

*Cut Line Last 5 Years: -1, +1, +3, Even, +3

*Course data excluded from 2020 as the event was canceled due to COVID.

Aside from 2020, Copperhead has hosted this tournament every year since 2000. It’s a challenging Par 71 set-up that extends 7,340 yards. One unique aspect about this course is the five long Par 3s, all of which check-in at over 195 yards. To put it succinctly, Copperhead plays long and presents many challenges which can make scoring quite difficult, especially if windy conditions come into play. It is not uncommon for this course to rank inside the top 10 in terms of course difficulty in any given year and a winning score around 12-under par can usually be expected. Golfers will need to do the majority of their scoring on the four Par 5s and simply fight to survive the rest of the course at even par. Holes No. 16, 17, and 18 at Copperhead are dubbed “The Snake Pit” and it is the furthest thing from a cakewalk. How players manage to play on those three holes will likely decide the champion come Sunday.

Personally speaking, these tougher tracks, which have landed on the schedule in recent weeks, are my favorite sort of courses to watch the professionals compete on and they should be in for another fairly grueling battle this week. Even though Copperhead plays long, accuracy is more important than distance here, as there are several doglegs, tight fairways, elevation changes, thick rough, 70+ bunkers, and not to mention water which comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes. For the most part, when teeing off, golfers all end up targeting the same general area on each hole so there is no real need to rank bombers over the shorter hitters. As a result of many golfers clubbing down off of the tee, around a third of approach shots will end up coming from the 175-200 yard range. To go along with the four Par 3s that are all essentially 200+ yards in length, it’s easy to see that long iron accuracy can pay dividends here. Any regular readers of this newsletter know I tend to weigh either SG: Approach or SG: Ball Striking very heavily most weeks. I’ll be switching that up to focus on golfers who simply excel tee-to-green this week. I’ll also be targeting guys who can take advantage of Par 5 scoring and those who rank out well in terms of bogey avoidance. On many of these holes, even par is going to feel like a birdie to these golfers and any shots that are dropped will be difficult to gain back. This one should get interesting so let’s go ahead and jump into a quick look at the weather, key stats to focus on, golfers who stand out in my personal model, and some DFS plays to consider for this week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Note: I’d like to apologize if I led anyone towards loading up on the wrong wave last week at The PLAYERS. The forecast pretty much guaranteed there would be delays across the first couple days and the main advantage would be had for golfers who managed to avoid playing their second rounds on Saturday when it was extremely windy. Unfortunately, I underestimated how lengthy those delays would be and recommended the wrong wave to target. The golfers who teed off early Thursday ended up nearly avoiding playing on Saturday almost entirely. It’s a reminder that weather conditions can in fact lead to significant advantages but it’s also hard to predict with 100% accuracy how it will all ultimately play out. As such, it’s probably never a good idea to go all-in on a particular wave in any given week solely based on the weather. BUT, with that said, we’ll continue to try to find any additional advantages where we can get ‘em!

Anyhow, here's how the weather is shaping up for The Valspar Championship…

Thursday: Light rain is possible in the morning but probably not a major issue to worry about. No significant winds at any point during the day and temperatures will sit in the 60s. Overall, solid weather for some golf!

Friday: Plenty of sunshine. Sustained winds around 5-10 mph all day. Potential 15-20 mph gusts may come into play closer to noon which could make scoring conditions more difficult.

Weekend: No rain, temps in the 70s. On both days, sustained winds will hang around 10-12 mph with the occasional 15+ mph gusts.

Verdict: The forecast definitely isn’t as ugly as last week but there could still be a wave that has a slight advantage. Currently, it looks as if the PM/AM wave will draw the more ideal tee times as they have the best chance at avoiding more of the 15-20 mph gusts on Friday. I wouldn't consider it to be a major advantage, however.

Valspar Championship Tee Times

As always, try to run a final forecast check on Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning just in case anything changes. You can click on the images below to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 175+ Yards) | 10%

6. Par 3 Average | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Arnold Palmer Invitational Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Viktor Hovland | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 11/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Overall Model Rank: #1

Best Key Stat Trends: 1st P5 BoB%, 2nd Long Iron Accuracy, 5th SG: T2G

Besides his hiccup at the WM Phoenix Open where he missed the cut, Hovland has been incredibly dialed in going back several months now. Since November 2021, Hovland has had nine starts worldwide. In those nine starts, he has seven top 10s including three wins -- insane! Despite losing over two-and-a-half strokes around the greens at The PLAYERS, Hovland still played well enough elsewhere to lead the entire field in SG: Tee to Green with +11.52 strokes gained. He also lost -3.13 strokes putting so the short game all around failed him, otherwise he could have certainly pushed Cameron Smith for the win. Hovland made his Copperhead debut last season and pulled off a T-3 finish. Given the form he enters with this week, we should expect some more incredible upside.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $10.7k, FD: $12k

Odds: 11/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #11

Best Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: T2G, 2nd P4 AVG, 2nd P5 BoB%

Morikawa was well on his way to competing for a high-end finish at The PLAYERS last week early on but, unfortunately, he was on the wrong side of the draw and had to play the end of his first round and his entire second round in those brutal windy conditions on Saturday. Ultimately, he went on to miss the cut by two strokes. But that’s in the rearview now and we should expect an immediate bounce-back performance for the world’s No. 2 ranked golfer. Morikawa has never played this course competitively before but he’s clearly a great course fit as he ranks #1 in my key stats model for the week.

Dustin Johnson | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 14/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #3

Best Key Stat Trends: 11th SG: T2G, 20th P4 AVG, 21st P5 BoB%

DJ fired a nine-under 63 in the final round of The PLAYERS which ended up being the best round of the day… by three strokes! Historically, Johnson has been excellent on longer Par 3s, which this course has five of, and he’s a golfer who should be able to take advantage of the par 5s as well. To reiterate on what was mentioned in the course break down above, those Par 5s are holes in which golfers will NEED to score well on if they want to compete this week. Johnson may not be playing at a consistently high level that we have come accustomed to seeing out of the former No. 1 ranked golfer in the world, but if that final round at The PLAYERS was any indication of where his game might be heading, it would seem wise to snag some shares of him this week.

Sam Burns | DK: $9.6k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #15

Best Key Stat Trends: 6th Bogey Avoidance, 9th P5 BoB%, 9th SG: T2G

It seems Burns has snapped out of a miniature slump which resulted in him missing three straight cuts spanning across his appearances at the Farmers, WMPO, and the Genesis a few weeks back. Following the slump, he now enters this week coming off of a T-26 at The PLAYERS and a T-9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Burns is a golfer who has found plenty of success in three starts at Copperhead -- of course, he enters the week as the reigning champion of this event and he also landed a respectable T-30 in 2019 and a T-12 in 2018. He possesses a well-rounded iron game and pairs that with a putter which can get extremely hot, especially on Bermuda greens which seem to be his preferred putting surface. He checks in as a better potential bargain on DraftKings but, given his odds of defending his title here, you can’t count Burns out on FanDuel either.

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $9k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Overall Model Rank: #16

Best Key Stat Trends: 4th SG: T2G, 4th P5 BoB%, 32nd Bogey Avoidance

Fitzpatrick is another golfer who was running hot heading into The PLAYERS week, but the poor weather draw ended up having a significant say in him making it past the cut line. Considering he ripped off three top 10s in a row prior to last week, Fitzpatrick should be back on the DFS radar as a bounce-back candidate. Despite the poor weather he was forced to play in last week, he still gained +1.24 strokes against the field tee to green across his two rounds. And he’s also one of the best Par 5 scorers in this field, which is a major plus considering how difficult scoring on the Par 4s and Par 3s will be. Fitzpatrick has only one start at Copperhead and it resulted in a missed cut. The lack of course history makes him more of a GPP play for me, but I definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn in yet another top 10 finish.

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Alex Noren | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 55/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #22

Overall Model Rank: #6

Best Key Stat Trends: 5th P3 AVG, 10th Bogey Avoidance, 36th SG: T2G

I’m not a big fan of the mid-range this week but this is one guy I wouldn’t hesitate to lock into lineups. Noren’s game is typically carried by strong around the green play and a reliable putter but he has been turning in some more well-rounded performances in recent weeks. Noren ranked 17th in SG: T2G (+5.98 strokes) at The PLAYERS last week and on approach alone, he gained +5.02 strokes, which was 8th best in the field. Noren is an excellent course grinder whose current form should lead to success at Innisbrook. In his Valspar Championship debut last year, Noren turned in a strong T-21 performance and his game simply translates well to courses which feature tougher scoring conditions.

Keegan Bradley | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Overall Model Rank: #5

Best Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: T2G, 3rd Long Iron Accuracy, 24th P4 AVG

Hold onto your butts, it’s setting up to be a “Keegan Bradley week” as he is projected to be one of the highest-owned golfers in the field. A chalky Keegan Bradley has disappointed many, many times in the past… but nonetheless, he’s hard to ignore this week. Bradley crushed it in the tee to green department last week where he gained +11.43 strokes (2nd behind only Viktor Hovland). Despite being hit with a two stroke penalty and going bogey/double-bogey over his final two holes, Bradley still came away with a solo 5th place finish. While his success at Copperhead is a bit of a mixed back (3-of-6 made cuts), he finished as the solo runner-up to Sam Burns last year. With the way his tee to green game seems to be clicking at the moment, there is some obvious high-end potential for Bradley this week.

Webb Simpson | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 60/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #8

Best Key Stat Trends: 4th P4 AVG, 22nd SG: T2G, 23rd Bogey Avoidance

We’re no longer seeing Webb be the consistent and reliable golfer that all longtime PGA DFS players have come accustomed to. But that doesn’t mean he’s washed up and can’t get back to playing like his former self. His only two starts this calendar year have come at the Sony Open back in mid-January where he finished T-61 and at The PLAYERS last week where he missed the cut by three strokes, despite drawing the more favorable tee times. Perhaps playing in back-to-back weeks can help Simpson iron out some of the inefficiencies in his game and he will be teeing up at a course which he knows well. Simpson has three top 10s to his name in ten starts at Copperhead so he knows how to navigate this track well. I’d expect Simpson to be <10% owned in GPPs this week and if he plays like his old self, he could provide significant leverage.

Russell Knox | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 70/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Overall Model Rank: #7

Best Key Stat Trends: 7th Bogey Avoidance, 10th SG: T2G, 17th P3 AVG

Knox, the No. 167 ranked player in the world, may not be a household name but he’s been playing rock solid golf as of late and enters ranked second within this field in SG: Ball Striking this calendar year. Knox landed an extremely impressive T-6 at The PLAYERS and is currently riding a streak of five made cuts in a row. He will also return to Innisbrook where he has made six of his last seven cuts with three top 25s in his last three trips. Consider Knox to be a safe mid-range play in all formats.

Kevin Streelman | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9k

Odds: 110/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #42

Overall Model Rank: #49

Best Key Stat Trends: 25th Bogey Avoidance, 35th SG: T2G, 40th P4 AVG

I’m not big on highlighting golfers who have missed three of their last five cuts, but the two weeks Streelman has made it past the cut line recently, he has made some noise with his T-16 finish at the Honda Classic and a T-22 at The PLAYERS. Streelman had a strong ball striking performance last week (+5.41 strokes) and rolled it well with the putter (+3.36 strokes). If he can step up his play around the greens this week I believe he is a good bet to finish inside the top 25. It seems as if it’ll either be a top 25-ish kinda week for Streelman… or he’ll just flat out miss the cut. Due to his recent volatility, I’d say proceed with caution.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Matthias Schwab | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 110/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #27

Overall Model Rank: #29

Best Key Stat Trends: 6th P4 AVG, 18th Bogey Avoidance, 27th SG: T2G

Back-to-back T-7 finishes coming into the week is going to automatically pique some interest here in Schwab. Though this will be his first career start at Copperhead, he is ranking out quite well in the key stats department. While he has struggled with consistency throughout his career at the professional level, this is a golfer who can go out and shoot a round in the low/mid-60s and make some serious moves up the leaderboard. Would I trust him as a cash play? Not likely. But for tournaments, there is excellent potential to be had with a ‘feast or famine’ golfer like Schwab.

Nick Taylor | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.2k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #58

Overall Model Rank: #36

Best Key Stat Trends: 34th Bogey Avoidance, 35th P4 AVG, 51st SG: T2G

There isn’t anything flashy about Taylor’s game but he has been enjoying a solid and consistent run on the PGA Tour across the last few months and he should be a golfer to consider in DFS lineups. Taylor has missed only one cut in his previous eight starts and in that span, he has posted six top 35 finishes. Taylor has a good deal of course experience at Copperhead as well since he has played this tournament for six consecutive seasons (not counting 2020 when the Valspar was canceled). The results are a bit of a mixed bag, with 3-of-6 cuts made here, but he did land a top 25 finishes here in 2019 and 2015.

Patton Kizzire | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #25

Overall Model Rank: #14

Best Key Stat Trends: 23rd P5 BoB%, 28th P3 AVG, 36th Bogey Avoidance

Kizzire has made it past the cut line in six of his last seven starts while finishing T-32 or better on four occasions during that span. While Kizzire’s tee to green numbers were lackluster last week, his +9.30 strokes gained in the short game (SG: ATG + SG: Putting) ranked 4th in the field at The PLAYERS. He returns to Copperhead where he has made 3-of-4 cuts in his career and, at the very least, he projects to be a fairly safe bet to at least make it into the weekend rounds while possessing decent top 25 upside.

Vaughn Taylor | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.2k

Odds: 300/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #34

Overall Model Rank: #26

Best Key Stat Trends: 12th Long Iron Accuracy, 30th SG: T2G, 44th Bogey Avoidance

As usual, there are a ton of landmines in this $6k(DK)/$7k(FD) price range but Vaughn Taylor is one guy who seems to be quite underpriced, especially on FanDuel where he sits just $200 above the minimum salary. Taylor has recorded a T-6 and a T-18 in his last two starts at the Valspar Championship and he enters this week having made the cut in four straight PGA Tour events. He also checks off a few boxes in the key stats department, which you can see listed above. He won’t be the most exciting play to insert into lineups but there is solid cut equity and reasonable upside to be had with Taylor at these rock bottom DFS salaries.

Austin Smotherman | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 250/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #29

Overall Model Rank: #51

Best Key Stat Trends: 4th Long Iron Accuracy, 17th SG: T2G, 42nd P4 AVG

Smotherman is still a relatively fresh face to the PGA Tour scene but he has shown off tremendous ability as a ball striker which has helped him make the cut in three of his last four starts. Once things start to click in the short game, particularly with his putter (123rd SG: Putting), then he’ll really start to post up some higher end finishes. For now, most of Smotherman’s potential is theoretical however he did have an outside chance at a victory earlier in the season when he landed a T-11 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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