By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

It was a wire-to-wire win for Jon Rahm last week at the inaugural Mexico Open at Vidanta. There was a bit of drama down the stretch but ultimately, the world’s second ranked golfer was able to keep a weak field at bay to secure the win.

The competition picks up this week for the Wells Fargo Championship. Normally this tournament is played at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC but since the Presidents Cup will be hosted there in September, the scenery will shift northward and closer to our nation’s capital. The 2022 edition of the Wells Fargo Championship will be hosted at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Potomac, MD. The PGA Tour most recently made stops here in 2017 and 2018 for the Quicken Loans National so course history will be nearly a non-factor this week. This will be a full-field event featuring 156 golfers where the top 65 players (including ties) on the leaderboard after 36 holes will make it past the cut line and advance into weekend play. As previously alluded to, the level of competition ramps up this week. In total, six of the world’s top 30 ranked golfers, and 32 of the top 100, will be on site. This is still not an incredibly strong field but most PGA DFS regulars will be familiar with the majority of the guys competing. Along with 500 FedEx Cup points up for grabs, players will vie for a share of a $9,000,000 purse this week with a cool $1,620,000 awarded to the eventual winner.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm

Location: Potomac, Maryland

Par 70 - 7,160 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

TPC Potomac features bentgrass greens and fairways all throughout the course, ten water hazards (including eight that are in play off the tee), 80 Scottish-style bunkers to navigate, and some very penalizing Kentucky Bluegrass/fescue rough. This course has a natural rolling landscape and the fairways are tree-lined, narrow, and difficult to hit. The bentgrass greens are some of the smallest on Tour, they possess an abundance of slope, and they can run firm and fast -- around 12.5 on the stimpmeter (pending rain).

While the scorecard yardage at TPC Potomac is not incredibly lengthy, many of these holes will end up playing quite long, especially if rain softens up the course. Six of the twelve Par 4s will check in between 450-500 yards, there is a massive 641-yard Par 5, and three of the Par 3s are at least 190 yards in length. That doesn’t mean bombers will necessarily prevail. Golfers will need to prioritize avoiding the hazards, especially the water and fescue rough. To do that, they’ll need to hit as many of those narrow fairways as possible and let their mid-to-long irons do much of the work. Many approach shots will come from the 175-200 yard range but the amount of shots taken from 150-175 and 200+ yard approach distances are expected to be higher-than-average as well. Quality ball strikers will own the best chances to excel this week, especially the guys who can manage to hit greens in regulation at a high rate.

The winning recipe for both Kyle Stanley (2017) and Francesco Molinari (2018) when they emerged victorious in the Quicken Loans National consisted of producing efficient Par 4 scoring, fairway accuracy, and strokes gained on approach. Do note that weather can have a major impact on this course as well. When Stanley won here in 2017 with a score of just seven-under, the windy conditions led to TPC Potomac being the fourth-most difficult course on the PGA Tour that season. Conditions were much more favorable the following year when Molinari posted his winning score of 21-under, but just be aware that this will not be a cakewalk by any means, especially if wind comes into play! The current forecast does look a bit tricky, so things could definitely get interesting. More on that below.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday: 10 mph sustained winds in the morning where gusts could also reach 20 mph. Winds calm down noticeably around noon and are almost non-existent past 1 pm ET. It’ll be cloudy but no significant rain is expected with temperatures mostly in the upper-50s.

Friday: Fairly calm wind conditions early (<10 mph) with the occasional 15 mph gust. Once the afternoon rolls around, sustained winds are expected to hit 10 mph with 20 mph gusts. It will be cloudy with some lower-end chances for rain throughout the day. Temps in the upper-50s and 60s.

Weekend: Saturday could be a bit of a mess with rain in the forecast, mostly late, and ~15 mph winds with potential 30+ mph gusts. Sunday looks clear as far as rain goes but still fairly windy with 10 mph winds most of the day and 15 to 20+ mph gusts.

Verdict: If the current forecast holds, I could see a notable advantage for the PM/AM wave since it would seem that they’d avoid the worst of the gusty conditions on both Thursday and Friday. Run a final check tonight before fully setting your lineups. For now, I’ll be slightly favoring the golfers who draw the PM/AM tee times.

Wells Fargo Championship Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Driving Accuracy | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

The RBC Heritage Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Corey Conners | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 4th P4 AVG, 5th SG: OTT, 11th Bogey Avd.

It’s easy to see why Conners is popping as the No. 1 golfer in the course key stats model this week -- he ranks no worse than 22nd in this field in any of the six highlighted stats listed above in this newsletter. On top of that, he has some of the best form in this field. His average finish of 18th place over his last five starts ranks 1st this week and he’s averaging the fifth-most fantasy points in that five-event stretch as well. Conners is simply a great ball striker who scores exceedingly well on Par 4s, which is going to be a necessity at TPC Potomac. Conners’ putter can become a hindrance at times, however, bentgrass greens seem to be his preferred putting surface. Unfortunately, given his early tee time on Thursday morning, he will not be one of the golfers who could benefit from a potential weather advantage (should the current forecast hold). However, the lack of having a potential tee time advantage should not be enough of a reason to keep him off of the DFS radar this week.

Keegan Bradley | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.8k

Odds:35/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 9th SG; App, 16th SG: OTT, 17th BoB%

I know many folks are on team #NeverPlayKeegan and, if I’m being honest, I used to be a member myself. But he is coming through with some excellent ball striking this season and his irons are really strong in all of those approach shot distribution buckets that golfers will need to excel at this week. He ranks 10th in proximity from 175-200 yards, 12th in proximity from 200+ yards, and25th in proximity from 150-175 yards. Golfers will NEED to swing some great mid-to-long irons to find success this week and Bradley has been doing that this season. He enters this event with three top-11 finishes in his last four starts and he also recorded a T-5 finish at this course back at the 2017 Quicken Loans National when scoring conditions were very difficult, as they may be at times this week. That will be a plus considering he draws the less-preferred early/late tee times on Thursday and Friday.

Russell Henley | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: App, 2nd BoB%, 9th P4 AVG

Russell Henley fits the mold you want out of a golfer this week. Statistically, he has the best approach game in this field, he scores on Par 4s, sinks plenty of birdies overall, doesn’t drop many shots (25th in Bogey Avd.), and he hits fairways (17th in Driving Accuracy). He is coming off of his first missed cut of the season at the RBC Heritage but it was right on the number and before that he was doing nothing but posting solid finishes, one after another. Henley is also one of the few top-priced golfers who draws the late/early tee time that will see a bit of a weather advantage, should the current forecast hold. Expect good things out of Henley this week. He’ll make for an excellent foundation target in both cash and GPP lineup builds.

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Seamus Power | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #28

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd P4 AVG, 2nd Bogey Avd., 4th BoB%

After absolutely smashing in the early portion of the season, which included a five-event stretch where he finished T-4, T-15, T-3, T-14, and T-9, Power then went on a slump and missed his next three cuts. He broke the slump when he carded a T-33 at The PLAYERS, then carried that momentum into the match play event where he landed a T-5 and then went to The Masters where he came away with a T-27. Momentum is a helluva thing in the sport of golf and Power seems to have that back in his bag at the moment. He has all the right tools to continue his sharp play at the Wells Fargo Championship this week.

Matt Kuchar | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #8

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 1st Bogey Avd., 28th BoB%

Kuuuuuuuuuuuch has some of the best short-term form entering this tournament after posting finishes of T-3, T-2, and T-16 over his three most recent starts. He didn’t play at TPC Potomac in either 2017 or 2018 but it is a course that should fit Kuchar’s game. Leading the field in Par 4 average and bogey avoidance is a great start. He also hits plenty of fairways (28th in driving acc.) and, while it is not a key stat for the week, he ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. Given the small size of the greens on this course, golfers will inevitably have to find creative ways to get up and down. Few golfers are better than Kuchar at doing just that lately. Kuchar is also another golfer who draws the preferred late/early tee times this week.

Brandon Wu | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #17

Key Stats Only Rank: #30

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 37th P4 AVG, 39th SG: App, 39th BoB%

Wu is one of the more intriguing plays in this range. He’s been showing out in recent weeks. At last week’s Mexico Open, Wu came out and tied the course record on Sunday with a 63 and went on to finish T-2 behind winner Jon Rahm. Before that, he put up a T-28 at the Corales, a T-33 at the Valspar, and a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open. Sure, his success hasn’t come against the stiffest of competition, but the field at this week’s event isn’t loaded with top-end PGA talent either. Also, Wu may not shine in any particular statistical category but he is pretty rock-solid across the board and ranks 52nd or better in 5-of-6 key stats for the course this week. He looks like a nice upside play for GPPs and he does draw the preferred late/early tee times as well. Also, if you play PGA DFS on Yahoo, they have Brandon Wu drastically undervalued at the stone minimum of $20 this week.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #26

Key Stats Only Rank: #31

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 7th P4 AVG, 6th Bogey Avd., 24th Driving. Acc.

McCarthy has been making his way into the weekend nearly every PGA event he has teed up for dating back to late October of 2021. In his last 14 PGA starts, he has just one missed cut. And during that run, he has posted six top 20 finishes. His game is carried heavily by his elite short game as opposed to his ball striking, but he has shown the ability to grind out cuts week in and week out while also providing some top 20 upside. Even though he has the less-preferred early/late tee times, he should be targeted at these low salaries.

Beau Hossler | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #81

Key Stats Only Rank: #115

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 48th BoB%, 83rd Bogey Avd., 102nd SG; OTT

Hossler is about as feast or famine as it gets so don’t trust him in a cash lineup. He’s made 6-of-12 cuts on the PGA Tour this season. And yet, in those six made cuts he has come away with five top 20 finishes including a solo-3rd place finish at Pebble Beach and a T-4 at the Valero a month ago. Hossler will not be ‘popping’ in anyone’s tournament/stat model this week but he has shown that *if* he can make it past the cut line and into the weekend, he can make some legitimate noise. Hossler has a 6th place finish to his name on this course when he competed at TPC Potomac in the 2018 Quicken Loans National and he’ll also draw the more favorable late/early tee times this week.

Nate Lashley | DK: $7k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #16

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 8th P4 AVG, 17th Bogey Avd., 31st BoB%

If we look past his missed cut at the RBC Heritage, Lashley has otherwise been killing it on the PGA Tour for the last two months. In his other five starts in that stretch beside the RBC Heritage, Lashley has finishes of T-11 (last week @ Mexico Open), T-18, T-15, T27, and T-7. He checks out nicely on paper as well where he ranks 50th or better in 5-of-6 key stats for the course this week plus he’ll draw a preferred late/early tee time.

Wells Fargo Championship Bets

For anyone interested, I'll be posting my final betting card for the Wells Fargo Championship over on Twitter later this evening. Likely around 9 pm ET.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!