By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour is set to tee off for the Waste Management Phoenix Open which is hosted by TPC Scottsdale out in Scottsdale, Arizona. This is always one of the rowdiest events on Tour with an average attendance of over 180,000+ fans each round, 700,000+ for the week. Last year, this event was one of many on the PGA Tour which was played under the umbrella of COVID restrictions; only around 5,000 patrons per day were allowed entry. The lack of a packed out course definitely dampened that electric vibe which the WMPO always carries. This year, the WM Phoenix Open will be played without restrictions so the electric and raucous atmosphere returns!

Unlike many recent PGA events, only one course will fall into play this week so there will be no multi-course headaches to deal with. This is also a high-strength field, with 17 of the top 25 and 50 of the top 100 golfers in the world in attendance. Given the single course rotation and a bit less daylight available at this time of the year, this event is capped at 132 golfers with the standard cut rule in play – the top 65 players (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. Pending a lengthy playoff, the PGA Tour times the WMPO to wrap up about an hour ahead of Super Bowl kickoff in order to give fans time to clear out and go watch the big game. Feel free to throw the WMPO broadcast up on TV as you make your Super Bowl LVI preparations and enjoy one of the most exciting final round finishes on the entire PGA schedule!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Scottsdale

Par 71 | 7,261 Yards

Greens: Bermuda (Overseeded with Bentgrass/Poa)

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 42nd, 18th, 24th, 32nd, 33rd

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -3, -1, -1, -1, -1

Despite some recent renovations to increase its difficulty, TPC Scottsdale remains a pretty forgiving course. It features fairly playable rough, so bombers can have a slight advantage so long as they avoid landing in one of the 68 bunkers, various water hazards, or getting caught up in a native desert area. Six of the final nine holes bring water into play and we’ll definitely see some golf balls going for a swim down that stretch. This course also sits at an elevation of around 1,500 feet above sea level. Combined with the arid desert conditions, drives tend to fly around 10 yards longer than usual which, in turn, shortens the overall scorecard length of this course. With this being a Par 71 set-up, there are only three Par 5s in play but they’re all reachable in two shots by the majority of the field. About a third of the birdies scored for this entire tournament will come on those three Par 5 holes. The 17th hole also offers up a high-risk-high-reward driveable Par 4. Golfers will absolutely need to go low at those opportunistic parts of the course if they hope to push for a top 10 finish. Part of what makes this event so exciting is how quickly the leaderboard can change, particularly in the final round on the back nine. Two of the Par 5s as well as that driveable Par 4 17th hole are back-loaded across the final six holes. Also within that six hole stretch lies the notorious Par 3 16th hole which is surrounded by stadium seating and carries an atmosphere not all too different from a rowdy football game… kinda like the one which will follow this event on Sunday evening.

With all of that said, this is a ball striker’s paradise and golfers who are solid off of the tee and possess great iron play will reign supreme – especially those who excel in the 150-175 yard range, as that will be the most common distance guys will be taking their approach shots from. The Bermuda grass greens (overseeded with bentgrass/poa) range from small to very large, depending on the hole, and typically run firm and fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter) without much undulation or slope. Note that there is some buzz that conditions may be firmer and faster at TPC Scottsdale than in previous seasons, which may be something to keep in mind. Generally speaking, these greens should play somewhat easier, or at least provide more predictable reads, than the Poa Annua greens which golfers have contended with in recent weeks. Enjoy the WMPO and Super Bowl LVI this week! It’s bound to be an awesome weekend for sports fans!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: This is the Arizona desert we’re talking about here so golfers will see plenty of sunshine with temperatures in the 70s for most of this event.

Winds: We’ll actually need to pay attention to wind conditions this week. As it stands now, Thursday morning could bring 10 mph sustained winds with potentially problematic 20-30 mph gusts. Winds calm down once Thursday afternoon rolls around (~5 mph sustained, no significant gusts). Winds are expected to be a non-issue all day on Friday.

Saturday morning could also see some windier conditions but that will only be a concern if you’re playing single round contests (and the forecast could easily change between now and then). Sunday is setting up to feature ideal weather.

Verdict: There could definitely be a noticeable wave advantage this week with the PM/AM wave drawing the more favorable conditions since they’ll avoid the gusty conditions on Thursday morning. Now, how big of an advantage that may be remains to be seen. But, as of now, if you’re on the fence between two golfers and one draws the AM/PM tee times while the other draws PM/AM tee times, I’d choose to go with the latter option using the weather advantage as the tie breaker.

WM Phoenix Open Tee Times

As always, run a final weather check before you lock in your lineups. You can see the most up-to-date forecast by clicking on the image below.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage| 15%

5. Proximity from 150-175 Yards | 10%

WM Phoenix Open Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Justin Thomas | DK: $11k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 12/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #2

As is the case essentially every week he is in the field, many PGA DFS players will be looking to jam Jon Rahm into their lineups. Obviously, Rahm is a tremendous option week in and week out. But that also leads to depressed ownership on whoever is priced below Rahm. This week, that man is Justin Thomas. Now, JT should still be a fairly popular option in this tournament but not quite as highly-owned as Rahm. Thomas is enjoying an excellent stretch of golf with a finish no worse than T-26 in his last nine starts to go with four top 5s along the way. He also notched back-to-back 3rd place finishes at TPC Scottsdale in 2019 & 2020 sandwiched between strong finishes of T-17 in 2018 and a T-13 last year. Thomas brings an elite approach game to the table and he leads the field in accuracy from the 150-175 Yard range which, as mentioned in the course preview, will be the most common approach distance this week. He also checks in 1st overall in BoB% and 2nd in P4 AVG. Thomas’ only real weakness has been with the putter. But, when it comes to his putting, he’s been more up-and-down on a tournament by tournament basis rather than flat out consistently bad or below average. So a good week with the putter where he gains even just a couple strokes against the field could very well lead to a victory given how strong the rest of Thomas’ game is. 

Viktor Hovland | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 18/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #8

How does three wins in a player’s last five worldwide starts sound? Because that is what Viktor Hovland has accomplished in recent weeks/months following a victory in his last start two weeks ago at the Dubai Desert Classic and winning both the Hero World Challenge and the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba back in the fall. Hovland doesn’t possess much course history, having missed the cut in his lone start at TPC Scottsdale which came two years ago. But momentum and recent form reign supreme in the sport of golf, and Hovland possesses both in spades heading into this week. Hovland is one of the elite ball strikers in the game today (3rd in SG: BS in this field), he pours in the birdies (3rd in BoB%, 3rd in P5 BoB%), excels on Par 4s (4th in P4 AVG), and is strong from the 150-175 Yard approach distance (19th in Proximity). There is a lot to like about the guy this week.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $9.1k, FD: $11k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #6

Big Scottie Scheffler is still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour but just because he hasn’t had a breakthrough victory like some other rising PGA superstars have, the No. 15 player in the world has still been the definition of “rock solid” for many, many months now. In Scheffler’s last 17 starts, he has only one missed cut to go along with 12 top 15s and six top 10s in that stretch. He returns to TPC Scottsdale where he notched a T-7 result one year ago. Schefller has gained the third-most strokes tee to green over the last three months and ranks no worse than 32nd in any of the five key stats I have listed above. We can expect another strong outing from Scheffler this week and his DFS salaries won’t break the bank like some of the other studs in this high-end tier.

Mid-Priced Targets

Seamus Power | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Overall Model Rank: #18

Despite ripping off five straight top 15 finishes, I’m seeing surprisingly little buzz on Power across the PGA DFS industry this week. Hey, if that means he’s going to be <15% owned at these price points… I’m all for that. The only two golfers in this field who have averaged more fantasy points than Seamus Power over their last five starts are named Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas -- nice company to be associated with. Over the last 50 rounds, only Jon Rahm has gained more birdies than Power and despite a lack of course history (Power: missed cut in his lone WMPO appearance back in 2019), I simply don’t see his hot streak ending now since he profiles as a strong course fit. Any golfer can turn a complete 180 and tank an event out of nowhere, but Power is playing far and away the best golf of his career and should make some noise at TPC Scottsdale this week.

Talor Gooch | DK: $7.8k, FD: $10k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Overall Model Rank: #17

Gooch is another golfer who feels noticeably underpriced when you take into account all of the recent success he has reeled in. Across his last 10 starts, Gooch has averaged the 3rd most fantasy points in this field (behind only Rahm & Thomas), he’s missed only one cut, and has posted seven top 20 finishes including a win (RSM Classic). When looking across the last 40 rounds, the only three golfers to gain more strokes per round than Gooch in that span are Rahm, Cantlay, and Hovland. I’d say the only knock against Gooch is his limited course history (1-of-3 made cuts at TPC Scottsdale) but, much like the aforementioned Seamus Power, Talor Gooch is playing the best golf of his career and at a certain point, ya just ride with the hot hand.

Luke List | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Overall Model Rank: #15

We might as well keep the trend of highlighting golfers in peak form going in this mid-range section. Luke List, fresh off of his first PGA Tour win at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago, comes into this event having gained more strokes tee to green across the last three months than any other golfer in the field. That has helped List to post four finishes of T-11 or better within his last six starts. He also has found some decent success at TPC Scottsdale in recent years where he has come away with three top 30 finishes in the last four seasons. I usually don’t chase after guys coming off of a win but List did take a breather last week and is priced too softly to ignore. 

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #51

Overall Model Rank: #30

I always feel hesitant when highlighting Denny McCarthy, especially when I’m tagging him as a cash game play, and that is simply due to how much of his success is tied to his short game. McCarthy is a master when he is near the green (11th in SG: ATG) or on the green (6th in SG: Putting) and many golf experts would say he has the best all-around short game on the PGA Tour. But he struggles as a ball striker (79th in SG: BS) which isn’t ideal for a course like TPC Scottsdale. With that said, McCarthy has been decent enough off the tee and with his irons and, with that insanely good short game anchoring things, he’s ripped off an incredible five top 15 finishes across his last six starts. Given his recent consistent success and upside, McCarthy will be hard to overlook as the 40th (DK) and 50th (FD) most expensive golfer in this field.

Aaron Wise | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Overall Model Rank: #19

Wise burned plenty of folks in his last start when he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, which was his first start since the Houston Open back in mid-November. But prior to that, he had reeled off seven consecutive finishes of T-26 or better. So, I suppose we’ll see how much recency bias will drive down his ownership this week. Wise absolutely crushes it on the stat sheet, especially when keeping in mind his low-end DFS salaries. He ranks 25th or better in the top four key stats I have highlighted for the week including 18th in SG: BS, 16th in BoB%, 25th in P4 AVG, and 24th in P5 BoB%. As long as he reverts back to looking like the same golfer we saw during the fall swing, Wise should be able to outperform his DFS price points with relative ease.

Doug Ghim | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k

Odds: 150/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #72

Overall Model Rank: #71

There are no shortage of landmines in Ghim’s price range but, compared to many others around him, he feels like a fairly decent and moderately safe punt play if you’re in need of some salary relief. Ghim enters this week having made seven straight cuts and has routinely provided 10x DK value or better at these salaries. There is nothing remarkable to point out about Ghim’s game. He’s an above average ball striker (57th in SG: BS) and performs well from the most common TPC Scottsdale approach distances (150-175 Yards, 200+ Yards) while ranking 9th in the field in proximity to the hole. This will be Ghim’s WMPO debut but anything beyond a made cut will bring forth some much appreciated value to ‘stars and scrubs’ lineup builds.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-End Range

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.6k, FD: $12.1k | Cash & GPP

You can never go wrong with Rahm-bo. The Arizona State alum is a crowd favorite at this event and he’s never disappointed, finishing no worse than T-17 in six WMPO starts.

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.8k | GPP Preferred

Cantlay will be making his WMPO debut but has been playing at an elite level with six straight finishes of T-11 or better, including two wins. Cantlay didn’t even play all that well at Pebble Beach last week as he lost strokes on approach, yet he still came away with a 4th place finish. That’s how scary good he is right now.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.5k | GPP Preferred

The two-time winner of this event (2016 & 2017) enters with two wins in his last four starts (Sony Open & ZOZO Championship). He’s a strong course horse play who pops all over the stat sheet as well.

Mid-Range:

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.6k | GPP Preferred

Oosty has limited history at TPC Scottsdale, but in his two appearances he has turned in a pair of splashy results, finishing T-11 last year and T-3 in 2017. He hasn’t played a competitive round of golf since withdrawing from the RSM Classic back in mid-November due to a back injury. It’s possible there is some rust that he’ll need to shake off, which will keep him out of cash consideration for me personally. But if he’s the same golfer we saw for much of last season, he could easily push for a top 5 finish out in Phoenix.

Webb Simpson | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.7k | Cash & GPP

He hasn’t been quite as consistent as we’re used to seeing, but any time Webb is priced below the top 10 golfers there is some real potential value to be had. Simpson has made the cut at the WMPO nine times in 11 starts with five top 10s including a win in 2020.

Update: Webb Simpson (undisclosed) has withdrawn from the WMPO.

Russell Henley | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k | Cash & GPP

He’s on a tear with six top 25s in his last seven starts, highlighted by a solo runner-up finish two starts ago at the Sony Open. Henley’s ball striking (4th SG: BS) is at a superb level and he’s posted a few solid results at TPC Scottsdale in recent years: T30 in 2021, T-15 in 2019, T-16 in 2017.

Value Range & Punts:

Matt Kuchar | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.3k | GPP Preferred

He let many down at Pebble Beach last week, myself included, but we’ll see if he quickly bounces back after looking solid prior to that last start. Kuchar has always played well at TPC Scottsdale having made 9-of-9 cuts with four top 10s and an average finish of 20th place.

KH Lee | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k | GPP Preferred

Lee led the field in SG: T2G in last year’s WMPO en route to a runner-up finish. He enters the 2022 WMPO on the heels of six consecutive made cuts with three top 25s in that span.

Mito Pereira | DK: $7k, FD: $8.9k | Cash & GPP

Pereira is another golfer who disappointed with a missed cut last week but this is a classic case of placing trust right back into a golfer based on their long term form. Pereira has made 10-of-14 cuts as a PGA Tour professional and has proven to be one of the best ball strikers in this field (7th in SG: BS). I’ll be fairly shocked if he disappoints two weeks in a row.

Matt Wallace | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.1k | GPP Preferred

Wallace is a top 100 golfer in the world, No. 95 to be exact per the current Official World Golf Rankings, yet he is priced among golfers who are in the 150-to-200 (and well beyond) range. He hasn’t teed up in a PGA Tour event since the fall but he did pop off for a T-4 (ZOZO Championship) and a T-14 (Shriners Open) back in October and most recently carded a T-35 in the Dubai Desert Classic over on the EURO Tour a couple weeks ago. Based on raw talent alone, he’s worth a punt in GPPs.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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