Looking ahead at some DFS targets for the Wyndham Championship!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads to Greensboro, North Carolina, for the Wyndham Championship held at Sedgefield Country Club. What’s special about this event, you may wonder? It is the final week before the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs begin! This is the last chance for golfers on the bubble of the top 125 in the FEC points standings to make their final surge to gain admittance into next week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship and, perhaps more importantly, retain their PGA Tour card for the 2022-23 season. This adds a bit of extra drama to the whole week, but don’t let it factor much (if at all) into your DFS decision-making if you’re thinking of chasing after golfers who NEED to have a good week. Some of these guys are not in the top 125 in the FEC standings for a reason, and, also, added pressure to perform well from start to finish isn’t always the best thing for a golfer’s mental game. But, for entertainment’s sake, to view the current FedEx Cup standings and see who needs to have a strong week, click here.

The field will consist of 156 players. In recent seasons, the field for this event has normally been relatively weak. It isn’t a star-studded affair, but the overall quality of the field is decent compared to many years past, as 29 of the top 100 ranked players in the world will be on site. The usual 36-hole cut rule applies, so the top 65 (and ties) will move on and play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Sedgefield Country Club

Par 70 - 7,131 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Difficulty Ranking Last Five Years: 35th, 29th, 41st, 40th, 37th

Cut Line Last Five Years: -3, -2, -3, -2, -2

First Tee: Thursday, August 4th at 6:50 am ET

Winners Last Five Years:

2021: Kevin Kisner (-15)

2020: Jim Herman (-21)

2019: JT Poston (-22)

2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21)

2017: Henrik Stenson (-22)

As you can tell by looking at winning scores above from the last several years, Sedgefield CC profiles as one of the easier tracks on the PGA Tour, and you can also usually lock in a cut line at or near 2-under. It is a Par 70 layout that stretches just over 7,100 yards – so it’s not overly long by any means. This has been one of the longer-running courses and events on Tour, so course history can be a pretty reliable part of your research this week. The fairways are relatively narrow, and there is a strong correlation between having an accurate driver and finding success in landing near the top of the final Sunday leaderboard at Sedgefield CC. Last year, the average drive was about 290 yards, and the field found the fairways at a 68.7% clip.

The rough isn’t overly penalizing and will be cut to about 2.5” this week. But when most golfers are focused on finding the fairways more often than not, you don’t want to be one of the guys hitting from the deep stuff all the time. The greens can often stand out as Sedgefield’s primary defense. They’re about average in size by PGA standards (~6,000 sq/ft), and the Bermuda grass will cause putts to roll fairly fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter). Due to the greens being multi-tiered with a noticeable amount of undulation, putts can also carry pretty inconsistent reads. There are 52 bunkers and five water hazards that golfers will also need to navigate around. The type of golfers who will excel are players who are big-time birdie makers, produce strong Par 4 scoring numbers, can be consistently accurate off the tee, nail their approach shots, and carry a reliable putter. Just possess a well-rounded game with decent accuracy. Easy enough, right? Strong course history will be a plus, as well.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Thursday AM: Light winds around 5 mph.

Thursday PM: Slightly stronger winds but very manageable at 5-10 mph.

Friday AM: Very similar to Thursday with lighter 5-10 mph winds. Low chance of some rain.

Friday PM: 5-10 mph winds.

Weekend: Conditions stay consistent into the weekend with 5-10 mph winds and no significant gusts. Potential for a random storm here or there but nothing that will pose a major threat.

Verdict: It will be on the warmer side (80s to low 90s much of the week) but otherwise, players will enjoy some great golf weather all week. There is no apparent wave advantage to be had.

Wyndham Championship Tee Times

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images below.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking | 25%

  > Emphasis on SG: Approach | 10%

2. Birdie or Better % | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Driving Accuracy | 10%

5. Fairway Proximity | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Wyndham Championship Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the key stats listed above with the specific percentage weights allocated towards each metric.

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Will Zalatoris | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 18/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: Ball Striking, 1st Fairway Proximity, 4th BoB%

Willy Z had a solid showing at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic where he landed a T-20 finish. The short game held him back but he was able to pick up +8.15 strokes in the ball striking department -- good for 5th best in the field. Perhaps this isn’t the greatest course fit for Zalatoris’ game but if he can make some adjustments off the tee, he could easily push for a top-five finish. It will largely come down to how accurate he can be off the tee. Zalatoris ranks 127th (in this field) in driving accuracy, but when he is in the fairway, he’s 1st in the field in proximity from the fairway. The putter is often a big question mark with him as well, but if he picks up some additional fairways and gets a bunch of shorter looks due to his excellent FW proximity, then that would clearly help. His best putting splits do come on Bermuda grass greens. He finished T-29 at this course a season ago and will look to improve upon that this week.

Sungjae Im | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #11

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st P4 AVG, 5th SG: Ball Striking, 12th BoB%

After a stretch of three disappointing starts at the US Open, Scottish Open, and Open Championship, Sungjae Im got back on track in a big way with a T-2 finish at the 3M Open a couple of weeks back. This is a place where Im has found success in each of the last three seasons with finishes of T-24, T-9, and T-6. Despite the relatively underwhelming T-24 finish in 2021 for a player of his caliber, he did rank 6th in the field with +8.64 SG: T2G. If he gets the putter going, look out for another top 10 Wyndham Championship finish out of Im this week.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Shane Lowry | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 16/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd Fairway Proximity, 3rd SG: Ball Striking, 4th P4 AVG

Billy Horschel | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #13

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 11th P4 AVG, 16th Driving Acc., 17th SG: Putt (Bermuda)

Adam Scott | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 35/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 8th Fairway Proximity, 9th BoB%, 15th SG: Ball Striking

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Si Woo Kim | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #32

Key Stats Only Rank: #28

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 14th BoB%, 34th SG: Ball Striking, 42nd Driving Acc.

Si Woo has not been a model of consistency this season, though he has made 20-of-26 cuts on the year. But it’s his recent form combined with elite course history that makes him stand out for this event. Kim had landed back-to-back top 15 finishes at The Open Championship and Rocket Mortgage Classic and he has come away with three top-five finishes at Sedgefield CC in each of the last three seasons while winning the whole thing back in 2016. This is quite clearly a course that suits his game so he’ll make for a worthy target out of the upper mid-range.

Adam Long | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #27

Key Stats Only Rank: #29

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th P4 AVG, 8th SG: Putt (Bermuda), 34th Driving Acc.

Long continues to get the job done consistently. Heading into this event, he has recorded four consecutive top 25 finishes while making eight of his last ten cuts. In those eight starts where he made the cut, he finished no worse than T-35. He’s finding a groove with his irons and ranks 16th in the field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds played. He’s been rolling with one of the more reliable putters this season, especially on Bermuda surfaces, so should the iron play continue, he has an easy pathway to another very respectable finish.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Denny McCarthy | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 35/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #20

Key Stats Only Rank: #48

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th P4 AVG, 13th SG: Putt (Bermuda), 32nd Driving Acc.

Joohyung Kim | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 33/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

Scott Stallings | DK: $7.8k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #33

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 15th BoB%, 22nd P4 AVG, 36th SG: Ball Striking

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings

Adam Svensson | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 10th BoB%, 13th SG: Approach, 27th SG: Ball Striking

Svensson continued displaying some incredible iron play at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic where he gained +6.50 strokes on approach which ranked 2nd in the field. He has made eight of his last nine cuts with top 25s in his five most recent events where he has made it into the weekend. He is also averaging the second-most fantasy points in this field over his previous five starts. Svensson doesn’t provide much course history, but in his lone start at Sedgefield CC in 2019, he came away with a T-31 finish. That seems like a good median result for him this week.

Hayden Buckley | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8k

Odds: 140/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #42

Key Stats Only Rank: #25

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th SG: Ball Striking, 15th Driving Acc., 34th P4 AVG

The only knock one could put against Buckley would be his lack of course experience. This will be Buckley’s Wyndham Championship debut but expectations should be fairly high for him this week -- at least in relation to where he is priced at in DFS. He has made six straight cuts including back-to-back top 26 finishes in the last two weeks and an impressive T-14 at the US Open. He checks in at 14th in the field in SG: Ball Striking over his last 24 rounds and provides some excellent upside with decent safety out of this price range.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Taylor Moore | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #72

Key Stats Only Rank: #54

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 32nd BoB%, 34th P4 AVG, 58th Driving Acc.

Callum Tarren | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #58

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 21st Fairway Proximity, 28th SG: Ball Striking, 30th BoB%

Michael Gligic | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #56

Key Stats Only Rank: #82

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 57th BoB%, 65th SG: Ball Striking, 74th P4 AVG

Wyndham Championship Bets

For anyone interested, I’ll be posting my final betting card for the Wyndham Championship over on my Twitter later this evening. Likely around 9:00-9:30 pm ET. Along with a few outright bets, I’ll usually mix in some first round leader bets with some exotic wagers (100/1 odds or longer) as well.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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