The PGA Tour travels out to Japan for the ZOZO Championship this week so remember to get your golf lineups and bets in early!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour travels out to Japan this week for the fourth edition of the ZOZO Championship which is hosted by Acordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan. In 2019, this became the first ever PGA sanctioned event held in Japan – a country that is just as crazy about its golf, if not more, than any other country in the world. Do note that due to COVID restrictions in 2020, this event was held at Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, California so event history for that year isn’t necessarily useful this week. But we can certainly reference some course history for the 2019 and 2021 seasons. A small 78-man field is in play this week and there will be no cut. Despite the small field, there is a decent amount of talent teeing up in Japan this week with seven of the top 20 golfers in the world on site, and 31 of the top 100.

It’s certainly an awesome time to be a sports fan. NBA makes its return next week, the MLB postseason is heating up, NHL recently started back up, and of course, the NFL and CFB seasons are in full mid-season swing. That will put PGA on the back burner for most people but staying active and on top of these early-season golf tournaments can go a long way towards success in the grand scope of things. As I have recommended in previous weeks, I do believe it is wise to lower your PGA bankroll spend this time of the season but, of course, someone has to take down these GPP prize pools! That might as well be us, right?!

Reminder: Since this tournament is played in Japan, the first tee will be at 7:50 pm ET on Wednesday evening (8:50 am local time on Thursday in Japan)! Make sure your lineups are set by then!

The Course Preview ⛳

Narashino CC is a Par 70 that stretches 7,079 yards. Compared to most Par 70 courses played on the PGA Tour, it possesses many unique qualities. In terms of total distance, this isn’t an overly long course. Of the ten Par 4s, only one checks in between 406-485 yards. So, on the majority of holes, golfers will be contending with either long (>485 yards) or short (<406 yards) hole layouts with only the 425-yard Par 4 No. 15 being the lone mid-length Par 4 hole. Another course detail of note, even though this is a Par 70, there are three Par 5s and five Par 3s (all under 200 yards) in play – traditionally, Par 70s will usually contain only two Par 5s and four Par 3s.

Narashino CC features six dogleg holes and most holes present relatively narrow tree-lined fairways, which are seeded with bouncy Zoysia grass. The undulating bentgrass greens will be on the smaller side but sharp iron play can lead to plenty of greens hit in regulation. What’s interesting to note is that there will be two greens on each hole, as is traditional on Japanese golf courses (one green is used during summer/spring months, one for fall/winter months). Golfers will receive a free drop if they land on the wrong green. This course has shown some teeth in the two years it has been played on the PGA Tour. In 2021, it ranked as the 15th most difficult course and in 2019, it ranked 13th. Let’s get a look ahead at the weather, key stats to consider, and some players to target at each price range! And, once again, don’t forget about the earlier-than-usual start time for this event (7:50 pm ET Wednesday evening)!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Weather Verdict: It’s looking like a wet opening round with impactful winds/gusts in play. A bit windy in the second round as well. As long as they can just play through the rain and tee times do not get pushed back, there doesn’t seem to be much of a wave advantage. It’s a small field with no cut so weather is less of a factor, to begin with. In contrast to the first two rounds, the weekend forecast looks excellent!

As always, you can be taken to the most up-to-date forecast pages by clicking on the images above.

ZOZO Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better % | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

5. Good Drive % | 10%

6. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

High-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $9,000 and above on DraftKings

Overall Model Rank: a golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model, which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which considers only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 12/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #7

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th SG: App, 7th P5 BoB%, 13th BoB%

There is no question who the crowd favorite will be this week. Japan has a wildly dedicated golf fanbase and Hideki is the country’s top golfer. The pressure to perform in front of the home crowd has not affected him one bit at Narashino CC. He won here last year and finished runner-up in 2019. His play off the tee has not been in top form recently but he remains one of the top approach players and Par 5 scorers in this field. Matsuyama will demand some consideration on his home turf.

Tom Kim | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 14/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: App, 1st BoB%, 1st P4 AVG

This guy may be earning more fans faster than any other golfer in recent memory. I’m ready to punch another ticket on the Tom Kim Express following his win at the Shriners Children’s Open last week. Kim isn’t much of a bomber but this isn’t a track that requires elite distance off of the tee. Instead, Kim’s accurate and all-around stellar tee to green play should translate extremely well here as he makes his ZOZO Championship debut. Even though he is the fifth most expensive golfer in the field, his recent form makes him a stand-out value among the top-tier golfers this week.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Xander Schauffele | DK: $10.8k, FD: $12k

Odds: 8/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th SG: App, 9th P4 AVG, 11th P5 BoB%

Sungjae Im | DK: $10k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 12/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #1

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 1st P5 BoB%, 1st BoB%, 3rd P4 AVG

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #19

Key Stats Only Rank: #35

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 5th SG: ATG, 26th P5 BoB%, 33rd SG: App

Mid-Priced Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,500 to $8,900 on DraftKings.

Tom Hoge | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 30/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: App, 5th P4 AVG, 10th BoB%

Hoge is playing some excellent golf in recent months and that has allowed him to turn in four top-12 finishes within his last six starts, including a T-4 and T-12 to begin this season. He led the field last week with +9.97 SG: Ball Striking and he has displayed some of the best irons on the PGA Tour early on in this 2022-23 season. Hoge’s around the green play (47th in SG: ATG) can be his downfall but fortunately, he tends to hit a ton of greens in regulation (9th in GIR) and he supplies solid putting splits on bentgrass greens. He landed a T-17 at this tournament last year and will once again stand out as a strong mid-range option.

Sepp Straka | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #9

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th BoB%, 11th Good Drive%, 18th P4 AVG

Straka is about as streaky of a golfer as there is but right now he is trending (massively) in the right direction, so we’ll see if he can keep his stellar play rolling in Japan. In his last four starts, he has a pair of solo runner-ups, a T-7, and a T-28. Before that recent successful run, Straka had failed to make the cut in six straight starts. Of course, there is no cut to worry about this week; however, some may be discouraged by Straka’s disappointing 66th-place finish on this course last year. It is worth noting that he came into this event in 2021 riding a four-event missed cut streak. Clearly, his form is in much better shape this go around so he’ll certainly land firmly on the GPP radar.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Keegan Bradley | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 30/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #17

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 6th BoB%, 9th P5 BoB%, 16th SG: App

Mito Pereira | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 45/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #25

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: App, 2nd P4 AVG, 2nd Good Drive%

Andrew Putnam | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #11

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 12th SG: ATG, 17th P4 AVG, 19th Good Drive%

Low-Price/Punt Targets

Default Salary Range: $7,400 and below on DraftKings.

Matt Wallace | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #13

Key Stats Only Rank: #29

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 9th SG: ATG, 15th P5 BoB%, 24th Good Drive%

Between recent starts on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, Wallace has had some trouble making cuts consistently. However, when he has made it past the cut line, Wallace has routinely turned in strong results. His last five made cuts have resulted in finishes of T-28 at last week’s Shriners Children’s Open, T-21 at the Fortinet Championship, 2nd at the Omega European Masters, T-10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and a T-26 at the 3M Open. With no cut to worry about this week, Wallace should be able to play loose and he’s a golfer who does provide some strong birdie upside. Once you get down into this salary range, that’s about all you can ask for. Wallace played extremely well at Narashino CC last year where he posted a T-4 finish. I like his chances for a top-25 finish this week.

Yuto Katsuragawa | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k

Odds: 175/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: N/A*

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A*

Top Three Key Stat Trends: N/A*

*Not enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data.

Katsuragawa is a virtual unknown to American golf fans, myself included. However, recent finishes of 2nd and 3rd place over on the Japan Golf Tour has the Japanese golfer up to No. 102 in the Official World Golf Rankings, so the guy is no slouch. On the Japan Golf Tour, Katsuragawa ranks 3rd in Scoring Average, 3rd in Par or Better, 1st in Greens in Regulation, 5th in Birdie or Better%, and 1st in Total Driving. He also landed a T-47 finish in last year’s Open Championship, so he has shown he can compete against some of the world’s best golfing talent. He’s a worthy punt play for “stars and scrubs” lineup builds and, while he will be a crowd favorite this week, Katsuragawa will likely come in with extremely low DFS ownership. I have him listed as a GPP play but I’m not against playing him in cash lineups since it would allow you to get up to three or four studs.

Others Golfers to Consider in this Range:

Kevin Streelman | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Preferred

Overall Model Rank: #40

Key Stats Only Rank: #36

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 17th Good Drive%, 19th P4 AVG, 31st SG: ATG

Russell Knox | DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #37

Key Stats Only Rank: #23

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: App, 16th Good Drive%, 22nd P4 AVG

Sam Ryder | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 200/1 | Cash & GPP

Overall Model Rank: #26

Key Stats Only Rank: #34

Top Three Key Stat Trends: 23rd SG: App, 28th BoB%, 31st P5 BoB%

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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