By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour stays in the Sunshine State for one final week as golfers prepare to tee it up at The Valspar Championship which is held in Palm Harbor, FL at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course). This will be a full-field event with 155 players on-site and the typical 36-hole cut rule will be in play (top 65 & ties play the weekend). This isn’t a super-loaded field, especially if we’re stacking it up to the elite PLAYERS Championship field from last week, but we’ll still have plenty of talent to choose from with 45 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers competing. Headlining this field are well-known names like Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and two-time Valspar champ Sam Burns. The Masters Tournament is only three weeks away so this week will be a great opportunity for golfers to fine-tune their form as we near the first official Major of the season! This is also a great chance for certain golfers who are not currently eligible to play in this year’s Masters to move into a qualifying position to compete!

The Course Preview ⛳

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Par 71 | 7,340 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Type: Parkland

*Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 9th, 29th, 20th, 6th, 6th

*Winning Score Last 5 Years: -10, -17, -17, -8, -10

*Cut Line Last 5 Years: +1, -3, -1, +1, +3

*Course data excluded from 2020 as the event was canceled due to COVID.

Aside from 2020 when the event was canceled, Copperhead has hosted this tournament every year since 2000. It’s a challenging Par 71 set-up that extends 7,340 yards on the scorecard. The five long Par 3s are a unique aspect of this course, all of which check in at over 195 yards. To put it succinctly, Copperhead plays long and provides many challenges which can make scoring quite difficult, especially if windy conditions come into play (which is a certainty this week). It is not uncommon for this course to rank inside the top 10 in terms of course difficulty in any given year and the winning score for this tournament has not been lower than 10-under par in seven of the last ten years (again, excluding 2020 when this event was canceled). The scoring average at the Valspar Championship in 2023 was +0.94 over par. Golfers will need to do the majority of their scoring on the four Par 5s and simply fight to survive the rest of the course at even par. There is an infamous three-hole stretch at Copperhead, which spans holes No. 16, 17, and 18. It is appropriately dubbed “The Snake Pit” and it is the furthest thing from a cakewalk. How players navigate those three holes will have a significant impact on the final leaderboard.

Personally speaking, these tougher tracks are my favorite sorts of courses to watch the professionals compete on. The pros should be in for a fairly grueling battle this week -- mostly due to the general tough nature of Copperhead itself, but also due to windy conditions that will come into play over the final three rounds -- more on those winds in the weather section below. Even though Copperhead plays long, accuracy is more important than distance here; this is because there are several doglegged hole layouts, tight fairways which are eight yards narrower than the PGA Tour average, many elevation changes, thick rough, 70+ bunkers in play, and water, which comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes.

For the majority of the holes at Copperhead, golfers will all end up targeting the same general landing zones when teeing off so there is no real need to rank bombers over the shorter hitters. The average driving distance on this course was 279.9 yards in 2023, which is nearly 12 yards shorter than the PGA Tour average. Even with golfers prioritizing fairway accuracy over distance, only 54.1% of fairways were hit at Copperhead last season -- about 5% below average. Since many golfers will be clubbing down off of the tee, around a third of approach shots will end up coming from the 175-200-yard range. When you factor in the four Par 3s that are all essentially 200+ yards in length, it’s easy to see how accurate long iron play can pay dividends here. Any regular readers of this newsletter know I tend to weigh either SG: Approach or SG: Ball Striking very heavily most weeks. I’ll be switching that up to focus on golfers who simply excel tee-to-green this week. I’ll also be targeting guys who often take advantage of Par 5s and those who rank out well in terms of bogey avoidance. On many of these holes, even par is going to feel like a birdie to these golfers and any strokes that are lost via bogeys will be difficult to gain back. This one should get interesting so let’s go ahead and jump into a quick look at the windy forecast, key stats to focus on, golfers who stand out in my personal DFS model, and other juicy info/rankings.

Note: Unfortunately, I am unable to get a cheat sheet together this week, but I’ll be including bonus info and additional golfer rankings (e.g. golfers who rank the best in windy conditions, the top long iron players, strong Bermuda putters, etc.).

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: Partly sunny, no rain expected, pleasant temps in the 60s and low 70s, and, most importantly, winds will stay in the 5-10 mph range all day. Golfers better take advantage of these conditions because the forecast only gets worse moving forward.

Friday: Sustained winds are going to hover around 15 mph all day with gusts anywhere from 20 mph to 35+ mph. Rain chances, and possible thunderstorms, could be a factor as well… and they could be enough of an issue to lead to a stoppage in play at some point.

Weekend: Rain should not be an issue over the weekend but winds will stay in the problematic range -- 10+ mph sustained with 15+ mph gusts on Saturday, increasing to 15-20 mph sustained and 20+ mph gusts on Sunday. If play is paused for any lengthy amount of time on Friday, which would bring a possible Monday finish into play, the stiff winds will still be hanging around then as well, very similar to the Sunday forecast.

⚖️Weather Verdict: After Thursday’s opening round, it would seem as if golfers will be unable to avoid the high winds on Friday, regardless of their morning/afternoon wave draw. The PM/AM wave could potentially end up drawing slightly more favorable conditions (due to a chance of lower winds early Friday morning compared to Friday afternoon), but it’s impossible to state that with any confidence.

Valspar Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 15%

3. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 175+ Yards) | 10%

6. Par 3 Average | 5%

7. Driving Accuracy | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Valspar Champ. DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Valspar Championship Extras 📑

Since I wasn’t able to get a cheat sheet together, here are a few additional rankings lists that could come in handy when researching this week’s tournament. Check each caption to see why I’m choosing to post each rankings list!

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.