By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

It’s a special week in the world of golf which doesn’t come around very often. The men’s Olympic golf competition is set to tee up at Kasumigaseki Country Club (East Course) in Saitama, Japan, which is about 30 miles northwest of where most of the remaining Tokyo Olympic events are being held. There are 60 golfers from around the world ready to compete, including 27 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers. Unfortunately, both Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm were forced to withdraw due to positive COVID-19 tests. However, they were replaced by Patrick Reed (USA) and Jorge Campillo (Spain). While some countries do pay their Olympic athletes with some form of compensation for winning a medal (e.g. USA gold medalists earn $25,000), there will be no multi-million dollar prize pool this week. The main motivation will be to win that gold, silver, or bronze medal for your home country. The two South Koreans in the field, Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim, will also have an extra piece of motivation. In South Korea, men are required to start a 20-month long military service prior to their 28th birthday. However, any athlete who wins an Olympic medal will earn an exemption from that service.

This will be a four round stroke play event and there will be no cut. Around half of the players in the field are not regular members on the PGA Tour and will have no strokes gained data to rely on. With the small field, no cut, no course history, and limited data to work with, I’m personally going to be playing this event fairly lightly. There are just too many unknown variables at play for me to feel comfortable allocating my usual percentage of my weekly PGA bankroll to this Olympic event. But to each their own! I am absolutely looking forward to watching this competition, though, and will be rooting on my fellow Americans in hopes that one of them can bring home the gold!

Reminder: This event will officially tee off on Wednesday, July 28th at 6:30 pm ET! (Thursday morning in Japan)

The Course Preview ⛳

Kasumigaseki CC is a Par 71 which extends 7,466 yards. Three of the four Par 3s will play between 200 and 240 yards while two of the three Par 5s will extend a whopping 630+ yards. For some comparison, this course bears some similarities to Augusta National (The Masters) and Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship). The tree-lined fairways feature some undulation and are wider than PGA Tour average but will narrow around the 300 yard mark and there are deep fairway bunkers guarding some preferred landing zones on nearly every hole. The intermediate rough that surrounds the fairways extends outward by a few yards before reaching the heavier rough. As of now, it doesn’t seem as if the heavy rough will be overly difficult to play out of. However, if golfers miss the fairways by a wide margin, they could find themselves surrounded by concentrated clusters of trees and there is a good chance they’ll be forced to punch out rather than attempt a normal approach shot. When making approach shots, golfers will be targeting large undulating bentgrass greens which are protected by greenside bunkers. The greens are expected to be very receptive due to the summer humidity and recent rains in the area.

Overall, Kasumigaseki CC shouldn’t play quite as long as its scorecard length. Most golfers should not have many problems hitting these wide fairways either. Elite ball strikers will be the go-to targets this week and I imagine the key movers on the scoreboard will be the ones who excel on the Par 4s. With the large, receptive greens in play, I’ll also be looking at three-putt avoidance. It’s expected that the Olympic committee wants this to be an entertaining event with plenty of scoring, so overall birdie or better percentage will be one of the key stats that I rank highly this week as well.

Strategy: In my opinion, I believe you can go ahead and trim out about a dozen or so of the very bottom-tier golfers from DFS consideration. Aside from a handful of exceptions, I would also focus primarily on golfers who rank inside the top 100 of the Official World Golf Rankings. Balanced lineup builds will be my preferred approach as well. With only about 40 or so golfers falling into true consideration, I wouldn’t hesitate to leave a few hundred dollars in salary on the table in an effort to avoid having duplicated lineups (in GPPs). And, again, I’m playing this event pretty lightly myself. Play whatever percentage of your bankroll that you’re comfortable with, but just be aware of all the unknowns this week!

Official World Golf Rankings

Weather ⛅

Temperature and Rain: It’s going to be warm, with temps well into the 80s for much of the week. Rain also looks like it will be a problem with a decent chance for precipitation on Friday and a potential washout scenario on Sunday (which could extend into Monday). They might have to get a little fortunate to actually finish the tournament by Sunday evening local time (late Saturday night for American viewers).

Wind: If the current forecast holds true, there could be a wind advantage for the AM/PM wave. But, at the same time, with only 60 players in the field, tee times will not be all that spread out (and, once again, there is no cut to worry about this week either). Winds will be very calm early Thursday with sustained winds picking up to around 12 mph in the afternoon. No issues Friday or most of Saturday, but Sunday could bring the potential for 20+ mph gusts and 10-15 mph sustained winds.

Verdict: I wouldn’t weigh the potential AM/PM tee time advantage too heavily since, really, everyone will be teeing off before noon. The first group will tee off at 7:30 AM in round one with the final group starting at 11:09 AM. If you’re playing single-round contests for the opening round, maybe give the very early guys an edge but don’t focus too much on any weather advantage for full four-round DFS contests.

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Average | 10%

5. Three-Putt Avoidance | 10%

6. Driving Distance | 5%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12k

Odds: 7/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #1

OWGR: #3

No one will be surprised to see Morikawa lead the way here. Morikawa certainly has the best irons in the world right now and he may very well be the best overall ball striker on the planet as well. The only knocks I could possibly put on Morikawa is the fact that he isn’t the longest off of the tee (289.3 yards/drive this season) and his putter can go cold at times. But, if these greens are going to be as receptive as they’re predicted to be, Morikawa is capable of shooting darts all over the place at Kasumigaseki CC, thereby giving him plenty of short birdie looks. He’s the man to beat this week for that gold medal.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 12/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #12

OWGR: #20

It is no shocker that the number one Japanese golfer in the world is one of the few golfers in the field who has some course experience here. Matsuyama won a couple of amateur events at Kasumigaseki CC prior to turning professional and the reigning Masters champion will be looking to turn his green jacket into Olympic gold. There will be no spectators allowed for this event, but you can bet that Matsuyama will feel the pressure of an entire nation coming through the lens of the surrounding television cameras. Will that pressure be too much? Time will tell. He won’t enter the Olympics in the best form, but I believe he’s worth some GPP exposure this week purely for the ‘hometown hero’ narrative.

Viktor Hovland | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 12/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #3

OWGR: #11

Hovland checks in as the 3rd ranked ball-striker in the field and also ranks 3rd in both BoB% and Par 5 AVG. The Norwegian Olympic gold hopeful excels with his long iron play and has very solid length off of the tee. When he’s in form, his game reminds me a lot of Morikawa’s, particularly in his pristine approach play. In his last two worldwide events, Hovland has a win (BMW International Open) and a T12 (The Open), so he’s looking to be in fine form heading into Tokyo.

Paul Casey | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11k

Odds: 18/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Overall Model Rank: #5

OWGR: #22

If Casey gets going with the flat stick, expect him to push for a bronze, silver, or gold medal finish. He ranks 4th in SG: BS and nearly always brings his A-game when playing overseas. In his last three starts on non-North American soil, he’s finished T15 (The Open), 6th (Porsche Euro Open), and 1st (Omega Dubai Desert Classic). I don’t envision him having many problems navigating a course like this and any finish outside the top 10 for Casey would come as a surprise to me.

Mid-Priced Targets

Corey Conners | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 25/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #14

OWGR: #35

Ya can’t talk elite ball strikers without mentioning Corey Conners’ name. He trails only Morikawa, ranking 2nd in the field in SG: Ball Striking and has posted a slew of excellent top 15 finishes on the PGA Tour this year. Conners is going to hit a ton of fairways (2nd in Driv. Acc.) and greens (2nd in GIR) so, if he sinks some putts, he’ll be able to put himself in position for a podium finish.

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 28/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: #28

Overall Model Rank: #24

OWGR: #34

Fleetwood has not played his best golf in 2021 and he honestly wasn’t all that great in the 2020 calendar year either -- at least compared to where his expectations are typically held. However, one of his better finishes recently was a T14 at the Wells Fargo Championship which is played at Quail Hollow, one of the courses I believe compares well to Kasumigaseki CC. He’s more of a leverage play this week, but I’m expecting some positive regression for Fleetwood soon and he’s most likely going to be only around 10% owned.

Guido Migliozzi | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

OWGR: #72

Migliozzi didn’t make the weekend at The Open after missing the cut right on the number, but prior to that, he had racked up worldwide finishes of T35, T13, T4 (US Open), 2nd, and 2nd. With no cut in play this week, I love his birdie making upside and he’ll carry moderately low ownership.

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $8k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Overall Model Rank: #20

OWGR: #53

Hughes has been showing up on big stages lately, most notably carding a T6 at The Open a couple of weeks ago and a T15 at the US Open back in June. Sure, he is reliant on his putter but the rest of his game is starting to come together at the right time [ahead of the FedEx Cup Playoffs] and I would look for him to have a strong Olympic showing as well.

Low-Priced Targets

Jhonattan Vegas | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Overall Model Rank: #7

OWGR: #95

After coming off of his second T2 finish in his last four starts, Vegas should pretty comfortably be one of the most popular golfers from this price range. Perhaps you can lower exposure in GPPs or fade outright, or if you really believe in him you can simply go ultra heavy on him in MME lineups. He’ll bring one of the longest drivers to the course this week (2nd in Driv. Dist.) and has been pouring in the birdies as of late.

Mito Pereira | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

OWGR: #118

Pereira will head into the week as one of my favorite dark horses to win an Olympic medal. He has shown tremendous scoring and winning upside on the Korn Ferry Tour this year and has been excellent in his last two PGA events, earning a T6 at the 3M Open and a T5 at the Barbasol Championship. He gained strokes in every primary tee to green category (OTT, App, ATG) at last week’s 3M Open and can get hot with the putter as well. I’m expecting him to comfortably outperform these salaries.

Rikuya Hoshino | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

OWGR: #86

Hoshino is the other Japanese golfer in this field, alongside Hideki Matsuyama, so he gets a little bump from the home field advantage angle. He has multiple wins on the Japan Golf Tour this year and even notched a respectable T26 at the US Open in June. I’d view him as an intriguing GPP play at <10% ownership.

Henrik Norlander | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #21

Overall Model Rank: #16

OWGR: #128

Norlander may be a popular DFS value option but I don’t mind eating a little chalk here if I’m in need of a quality punt play. He’s made five straight cuts over on the PGA Tour, most recently a T5 at the Barbasol Championship. I believe he’s a sneaky good course fit for Kasumigaseki CC and considering he ranks 5th in proximity on approach, he should give himself plenty of makeable birdie looks.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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