By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

Quickly channeling my inner Bruce Buffer here… IT’S… TIMEEE!!! The season’s final Major is upon us as the 149th Open Championship is just over a day away. It has been fun to see some young PGA talent develop in these weaker field events in recent weeks but now we get to see all of the big boys battle it out. The Open will be held at Royal St. George’s Golf Club in Sandwich, UK -- about 80 miles east of London. The field with over 150 golfers will boast the absolute best talent that the game has to offer – 24 of the top 25 ranked golfers in the world will be in attendance; as well as 86 of the world’s top 100. After 36 holes, the top 65 (including ties) will make the cut and move on to play the weekend. Keep in mind that this event is across the pond so play will begin and lineups will lock just after midnight at 1:35 am ET on Thursday ‘morning’ July 15th. As is the case with all Major events, DFS pricing is very soft on both sites. Generally speaking, a balanced lineup is often ideal for cash games. Anything goes for GPPs. If you’re new to PGA DFS, I wouldn’t recommend getting too cute with ‘punting’ a ton of super low-priced guys. Majors are set up to provide the most challenging tests that professional golfers see all year and the cream always rises to the top. A few lesser-known players will certainly surprise on the final leaderboard, but well-known and vetted pros will far outnumber them.

The Course Preview ⛳

Royal St. George’s GC has hosted 14 previous Open Championships, most recently in 2011. It is a Par 70 setup that will check in right around 7,200 yards in length. This is a traditional links-style course where the front nine holes all go in one direction while the back nine go the opposite way. With that in mind, expect the wind to have a notable impact on how long the course ultimately plays. The fairways are average in width and size. Recent rain could make those fairways play a bit softer than intended, but we can assume that the course superintendent will do whatever they can to make them play firm and fast in order to offer up a more difficult challenge. The fairways also have a ton of humps and mounds which could cause a good-looking tee shot to go sideways if it catches an obscure bounce. Of course, avoiding situations like that will come down to sheer luck. Tall fescue grass and deep pot bunkers will be surrounding the fairways and will cause plenty of problems. If a golfer’s ball finds itself in one of those hazards, especially at an odd angle in one of the pot bunkers, they will be fortunate to save par on that hole. On approach shots, golfers will be targeting average-sized greens which feature plenty of undulation and runoff areas while also being protected by more of those pot bunkers and fescue grass. I haven’t seen any confirmation, but I would not expect the greens to be running overly firm and fast -- likely around 11-12 on the stimpmeter.

So, what kind of golfer succeeds this week? Royal St. George’s GC will test both the physical talent and the mental fortitude of a golfer. With zero protection from the wind, it’s not really a matter of “if” a golfer will hit a wayward tee shot, it’s more so a matter of “when”. Golfers who can come away with pars in those situations will be the ones who hang around the top of the leaderboard. Perhaps it goes without saying, but if a guy is putting themselves in those challenging situations too often, they will not be lucky enough to avoid a big number every time. Strong around the green play has always been extremely important in previous Open Championships, and this week should be no different. Only four golfers finished the week under par when Royal St. George’s hosted the Open back in 2011 and we can probably expect similar results this season. If someone goes out there and simply shoots an even-par 70 in all four rounds, they’re probably looking at a top 10 finish. So, guys who are efficient at avoiding three-putts and bogeys will have an advantage. It should be a fun week filled with some (very) late-night golf action. If anyone is testing the waters in PGA DFS this week due to the MLB All-Star break going on, don’t hesitate to ask myself of one of the other users in chat a question. Let’s go!

Weather ⛅

Temperature & Rain: Cooler temps, mostly in the 60s all week with plenty of sunshine and no major threat of rain at any point currently.

Wind: Well, the good news I suppose is that we don’t really have to worry about a wave advantage this week because both waves should be affected equally. The bad news is that the winds will be problematic at times this week. We can expect golfers to face sustained winds of 15 mph, perhaps a bit higher, with gusts anywhere from 20-30 mph. Saturday is currently forecasted as the windiest day, but for the most part, the weather will be fairly consistent through all four rounds and I’m sure golfers will make adjustments quickly.

Open Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 20%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

6. Three-Putt Avoidance | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Jordan Spieth | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 18/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #1

Aside from perhaps only Jon Rahm, you could argue that Spieth has been the best overall golfer on the PGA Tour in the 2021 calendar year. He has seemingly recaptured the form that led to his meteoric rise a few years back and he has certainly found plenty of success across the pond. Spieth has never missed a cut in seven Open Championship starts and has three top 10s in his last five Open appearances, including a win back in 2017. Likely a major reason for his success this season can be attributed to his strong around the green game (ranks 5th in the field in SG: ATG), which will be a key trait to possess at a course like Royal St. George’s. If I had to guess, Spieth and Rahm will be the two highest-owned golfers out of the elite tier but I cannot find it within myself to fade either guy.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $9.3k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Overall Model Rank: #4

Oosty’s history in British Opens is a bit spotty (7-of-12 made cuts, highlighted by a runner-up finish in 2015, win in 2010). However, he has been as steady as it gets in Majors recently. Oosthuizen has made 10-of-10 cuts in Majors over the last three seasons including runner-up finishes in the last two (US Open & PGA Championship). His ball-striking is not overly impressive but he is anchored by an elite short game (11th in SG: ATG) and he can get extremely hot with the putter (1st in SG: Putting). He’s simply an excellent grinder and comes in with terrific form, so it is no surprise that he’s firmly on my radar once again this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Will Zalatoris | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 80/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Overall Model Rank: #35

Much of the luster has faded on Willy Z but I believe that makes him a huge leverage play this week. I could easily see him come in at around 5-8% ownership in tournaments, so you don’t exactly need to go overboard to get an edge against the field. While he missed the cut at the last Major (US Open), he notched terrific finishes in both the PGA Championship (T8) and the Masters (2nd), so he can certainly hang with top level competition on big stages. He also posted a T26 at last week’s Scottish Open, which is clearly a positive coming into another week with a wind-sensitive, open links style course in play. When he’s in form, Zalatoris has some of the smoothest iron play on Tour even at 24-years-old. While I cannot find official stats from the Scottish Open last week, I am going to assume that solid iron play helped lead to that respectable T26 finish so perhaps he’s gaining a bit of form back in the approach shot department.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Overall Model Rank: #15

Scheffler stands out as an appealing mid-range target this week despite having no experience in British Opens. He has impressed in his previous two Major appearances, landing a T8 at the PGA Championship in late May and a T7 at the US Open a month ago. He also has a solo 3rd place finish sandwiched between those tournaments at the Memorial, which is another difficult event. Scheffler got a taste of European golf when he competed in last week’s Scottish Open and ultimately came away with a solid T12 finish despite the awful conditions. While his game can be inconsistent at times and he’s not immune to some frustrating bogeys, he’s also one of the best pure scorers in the game. He ranks 6th in the field in both Par 4 Average and Birdie or Better Percentage. Birdies will of course be difficult to come by this week, but I believe Scheffler is one of the few golfers who could go out there and shoot four rounds under par this week.

Low-Priced Targets

Ian Poulter | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #54

Overall Model Rank: #25

There is nothing overly flashy about Poulter’s game, but he has been grinding out solid results and has missed just one cut in his last ten worldwide starts. He enters off a T4 at the Scottish Open and would likely be priced a few hundred dollars higher if DFS salaries for this week didn’t come out early. Poulter has a strong and extensive track record in Majors, making 45-of-61 cuts (73.8%). While his history at Open Championships is spotty (7-of-14 made cuts), he does have three top 10s from this tournament. Considering he is priced as the 41st (DK) and 54th (FD) most expensive golfer, you don’t exactly need a top 10 finish from him to return value here. Per Bovada, Poulter’s odds of a top 20 finish are set at +250, which might be a bet worth making.

Guido Migliozzi | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 150/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Migliozzi doesn’t have enough PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained stats, but I doubt you’re going to find many golfers in this salary range with as strong of form that he’s shown. In his last five starts between the EURO and PGA Tours, Migliozzi has landed finishes of T35, T13, T4 (US Open), 2nd, and 2nd. He can be a bit reliant on the putter at times but, hey, if he continues to roll it as he has been, then we’ll take whatever works. It’s been a big week for the country of Italy in the world of sports so perhaps Migliozzi can keep the momentum going with a strong showing on one of the biggest stages in the sport.

Quick Hits - Other Golfers to Consider

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.3k, FD: $12.3k

Odds: 7.5/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #2

When a golfer has odds in the single digits IN A MAJOR, you’ll be taking a significant risk in fading him. Rahm could certainly underperform and, at these salaries, you pretty much need a top five finish out of him if you want to hit value. That’s a highly likely outcome, so I’ll be keeping him firmly in my player pool this week (but may stick to around 15% exposure).

Brooks Koepka | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 16/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #25

Overall Model Rank: #12

It’s a Major week, so that means play some Koepka. I understand that people will actively look for reasons *not* to play Brooks, but the fact is that when a Major week arrives, he turns it on nearly every time. In 28 career Major appearances, he’s made 25 cuts (89.3%) with 14 top 10s, 11 top 5s, and four wins.

Dustin Johnson | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 20/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #24

Overall Model Rank: #14

DJ obviously isn’t playing his best golf but that will reflect in his ownership this week. GPP leverage play.

Patrick Reed | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #8

When a course requires a ton of creativity out of golfers, especially around the greens, Reed is an auto target. He’s 10th in the field in SG: ATG and has one of the most reliable putters in the field.

Shane Lowry | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #50

Overall Model Rank: #20

I have to show some love to the reigning Open champion with Lowry who has made nine straight worldwide cuts with four top 10s in that span. I’d view him as a reliable mid-range option.

Daniel Berger | DK: $7.4k, FD: $10k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Overall Model Rank: #7

Definitely, a bit of a misprice on DraftKings here as Berger should be closer to about $8k or so. He’s one of four golfers in the field who ranks top 10 in both Par 4 AVG (9th) and BoB% (10th). He has simply been a consistent cut maker and had top 10 upside all day.

Robert Macintyre | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Macintyre is very close to being a cash game option for me considering his only missed cut this season across 14 EURO/PGA starts came at The Players. He’s not a household name among American golf fans but Macintyre has made the cut in all five of his career Major starts and landed a T18 at the Scottish Open last week.

Alex Noren | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #60

Overall Model Rank: #51

Noren has been pretty boom-or-bust but he makes for a strong GPP option considering his last three Open Championship appearances have resulted in T11, T17, and T6 finishes.

Lucas Herbert | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Herbert stands out as an incredibly strong potential value on both sites. He came away with top 20 finishes in his last two PGA events and, more recently, a win (Irish Open) and a T4 (Scottish Open) over on the EURO Tour. At $800/$1k above minimum salary, you don’t need him to do much more than just make it past the cutline and not implode on the weekend.

Sam Burns | DK: $6.3k, FD: $9k

Odds: 100/1 | DraftKings Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #18

Overall Model Rank: #28

This is so clearly a misprice on DraftKings part so expect Burns to be the go-to punt play over there this week. At $6,300, Burns is the 118th most expensive golfer on the board (37th on FD) and is priced around guys I have never even heard of. If he simply makes the cut, he is going to crush value.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Lucas Herbert

Yeah, a complete Hail Mary play for me this week but all my true stud golfers have been used up and I’m shooting for a contrarian late-season play anyhow. If you have someone like Rahm or Spieth still on the board, it’s a good week to use ‘em. But it is hard to dislike Herbert entering this week off of a T4 and a win, both on European soil.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options still available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the complete 2020-21 PGA season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.