By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

How great is it that we are just two weeks into the 2020-21 PGA season and yet we’re already flying head-on into a Major week?! The PGA Tour heads to Mamaronek, New York to tee up for the 120th U.S. Open Championship, which will be held at Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course). I’ll get into the course more below, but know this: it is going to be a treacherous week of golf for these guys. There will be 144 of the world’s best players in attendance, with 90 of the top 100 ranked players on site. To make things more brutal, the typical 36-hole cut will be trimmed from the usual cut rule of top 65 (plus ties) down to just the top 60 (plus ties) making it to the weekend. I do want to advise people who are newer to PGA DFS that this may be a week to go easy on your bankroll because it is going to be extremely tough to land on a 6/6 lineup. I love watching these difficult high-stakes tournaments, so I personally throw in about 15-20% of my bankroll in on these Major events, along with some bets. But be prepared to figure out your own level of financial risk you’re willing to partake in prior to entering contests this week!

The Course Preview ⛳

This section will be a little longer than usual, but worth reading if you’re unfamiliar with the course.

The West Course at Winged Foot Golf Club is a very lengthy Par 70 set-up that extends 7,450+ yards (varies a bit depending on pin placement). Like most Par 70s, it will feature two Par 5s and four Par 3s. Before we get into the actual physical characteristics of this beast of a course, it’s worth looking back on some previous results here. The U.S. Open has been played here five other times prior to this season. The winning scores in those tournaments were +5 (Geoff Ogilvy, 2006), -4 (Fuzzy Zoeller, 1984), +7 (Hale Irwin, 1974), +2 (Billy Casper, 1959), and +6 (Bobby Jones, 1929). Golfers don’t go into a U.S. Open week expecting to pour in birdie on top of birdie… they go in looking to simply survive. There is already plenty of buzz from some golfers alluding to the fact that this may be the hardest course they’ve ever competed on. What makes this place so difficult? Let’s look at the course profile.

Once golfers step onto the tee box, they will be looking down narrow fairways that slim down even more the farther away you get from the tee. There will be plenty of bunkers in play, designed to protect against the preferred landing zones. Errant tee shots which don’t find the fairway will be met by highly perilous rough. The first cut of rough, which will border a few feet around the fairways, can be more than three inches deep. The primary rough will be up to five, or in many cases, six inches deep. The PGA rules allow golfers up to three minutes to find their ball before taking a penalty. We’ll likely see several golfers suffer that fate this week. Often at courses with difficult rough, the crowd simply walking the grounds around the fairways naturally helps flatten some areas of the rough down which can often provide more hittable lies. That won’t be the case this week, as there will be no spectators on site.

Avoiding the rough will only be ‘step one’ on the list of difficult tasks golfers will need to complete in order to tame this course. Once golfers step up to take their approach shots, assuming they’re not laying up out of the rough, they will take on Winged Foot GC’s toughest defense: the greens. The Poa annua greens will come in many different sizes and some carry a unique squared-off geometric look. Greens will be elevated from approach shot distances, some with multiple tiers, but all will have wild areas of undulation and will mostly slope back to front. Golfers who overshoot these greens will be faced with extremely harsh up-and-down attempts. The greens will run firm and fast, likely anywhere between 13 and 14 on the stimpmeter (aka very fast) and are protected by greenside bunkers and more of that tall, pesky rough. For anyone who really wants to get an idea of how this course will play, I recommend giving the video below a view which features a hole-by-hole flyover of all 18 holes at Winged Foot GC (West). It’s a little under 12 minutes long (but you can watch at 1.25x speed) but it’s worth knowing what golfers will be dealing with this week.

I know this course preview is a bit longer than usual, but to wrap things up, what kind of golfer are we looking for here? Well, accuracy is important due to the heavily penalizing rough. But, for a Par 70, the course is so long that solid distance will also be a valuable asset -- otherwise, you’re looking at approach shots beyond 175+ yards out. So, to state the obvious, golfers who are both long and at least fairly accurate will set up best on their approach shots. Inevitably, every single golfer in the field is going to have to deal with difficult shots out of the rough, so finding guys who can save holes with salvageable approach shots out of the rough will be key. When golfers miss these greens, strong play around the green will help get them up-and-down on the scorecard. Remember that a par score will be perfectly fine on most of these holes, so bogey avoidance will be something else I pay attention to. Also, we’ll see plenty of three-putts this week, so I’ll also be looking for players who tend to avoid those situations. I know this was a lot to read but now let’s move on to a look at the weather, my key stats I’m weighing, and some potential golfers to consider this week!

Weather ⛅

Thur/Fri AM Wave Tee Times: 6:50 AM ET - 8:51 AM ET

Thur/Fri PM Wave Tee Times: 12:10 PM ET - 2:11 PM ET

On a week like this, we’ll need to find any advantage we can get. Just glancing at the forecast below (focusing on winds), you can see that round one on Thursday should play relatively even for both waves throughout the day. On Friday, it does seem the AM wave will be dealing with sustained winds near 15 mph, and gusts above 20 mph. Whereas the PM wave may see just 10 mph sustained winds and gusts just under 15 mph. Plenty can change between now and Thursday, and I’m not going to factor tee times into my research as of today (Tuesday afternoon), but I’m tentatively giving the AM/PM wave a slight advantage. Again, this could absolutely change by Thursday morning, so check on the forecast (linked below) on Wednesday night before making any final weather-based decisions.

U.S. Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 15%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

5. Three-Putt Avoidance | 10%

6. Driving Accuracy | 10%

7. Proximity from the Rough | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Jon Rahm | DK: $11k, FD: $11.8k

Vegas: 10/1 | Custom Model Rank: #3 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 8th SG: BS | 9th P4 AVG | 3rd Bogey Avd. | 19th SG: ATG | 1st Three-Putt Avd. | 22nd Driving Acc. | 85th Rough Prox.

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field in any given week.

Many will look to DJ as the man to beat this week, and rightfully so… the 2019-20 PGA FedEx Cup Champion has been on an absolute heater. But this is a new season and everyone is chasing both a Major Championship payout this week, and a huge leg-up on the competition in the early season 2020-21 FedEx Cup Standings. Maybe DJ experiences a bit of a competitive hangover this week as well? Who knows. Regardless, I think Rahm’s overall game is better suited for this particularly devious U.S. Open venue. He is long off the tee (11th in the field Driving Distance) and, combined with that length, he finds a remarkable amount of fairways (as noted above, he is 22nd in Driving Acc.). Rahm also has matured his game to the point where he rarely has a complete meltdown on any particular hole, as evidenced by his high-end bogey & three-putt avoidance rankings. In recent history, Poa annua greens have also been his best putting surface and he ranks 9th in the field in SG: Putting (Poa). This is a super unpredictable course to project how well any one golfer will do but, all-in-all, I’m expecting good things from Rahm-bo this week.

Webb Simpson | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.8k

Vegas: 25/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 21st SG: BS | 1st P4 AVG | 1st Bogey Avd. | 18th SG: ATG | 7th Three-Putt Avd. | 6th Driving Acc. | 17th Rough Prox.

On paper, if there is anyone whose strengths match up perfectly for the primary course defenses at Winged Foot GC, it’s Webb Simpson. He’s a good ball striker with world class irons, he rolls a reliable putter and does well on Poa annua greens (7th in SG: P - Poa), he hits well out of the rough, and he can save errant approach shots with great around the green play. The only strike I could mark against him is his lack of elite distance off the tee (57th in driving distance). He still hits it close to about 300 yards off the tee, which will be fine on most holes. And when he is faced with an approach shot from 175+ yards out, his long irons are some of the best in the field (21st Prox. 175-200 yds, 6th Prox. 200+ yds). I could change my overall thoughts a bit during the time leading up to the U.S. Open teeing off, but if I’m building a cash lineup it probably starts with Simpson. He’ll obviously be in play for GPPs as well, but be aware that he will likely be one of the highest owned golfers on the week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.8k

Vegas: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #14 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 19th SG: BS | 9th P4 AVG | 12th Bogey Avd. | 21st SG: ATG | 2nd Three-Putt Avd. | 34th Driving Acc. | 14th Rough Prox.

If we’re looking at *only* the key stats, Hatton is bested on paper by only the aforementioned Webb Simpson. He showed incredible upside in the majority of his starts last season and finished inside the top 10 in 9/10 events. Hatton’s only missed cut last season came at the PGA Championship where he only slightly missed out on the weekend by two strokes. On a week where we shouldn’t expect a ton of birdies, Hatton may be one of the better overall birdie makers not only in this general price range, but in the entire field. I’ll give him strong consideration heading into Winged Foot GC.

Matthew Wolff | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k

Vegas: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #25 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 26th SG: BS | 62nd P4 AVG | 64th Bogey Avd. | 87th SG: ATG | 42nd Three-Putt Avd. | 53rd Driving Acc. | 43rd Rough Prox.

Wolff doesn’t exactly excel when stacking his long term metrics up against this course, and this will be his first career U.S. Open appearance. But he is the sort of young golfer who can go into an event like this with a care-free attitude and nothing to prove -- a real ‘grip it and rip it’ approach. Perhaps that is the sort of mindset one needs to possess in order to succeed this week. The course is going to challenge everyone so if you can win the mental battle, perhaps that will bring forth positive results on the scorecard. Wolff has a couple great results in recent tournaments that gives me some faith in him this week. In the most recent Major (PGA Championship five weeks ago), Wolff played his way to a T4 finish -- indicating the stage shouldn’t be too big for him. Also, a few weeks prior to that at the Memorial, Wolff came away with a respectable T22 finish after carding a +3 score after 72 holes. That was a week where only nine golfers finished below par, so that boosts my confidence in Wolff on tough courses. In general, I still think he carries some risk and will likely stick to him as a ‘GPP only’ sort of play.

Low-Priced Targets

Brendon Todd | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.9k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #33 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 70th SG: BS | 17th P4 AVG | 14th Bogey Avd. | 29th SG: ATG | 46th Three-Putt Avd. | 2nd Driving Acc. | 78th Rough Prox.

Todd isn’t going to be out there crushing drives on this long Par 70 track, but he should land it on the short stuff more than just about everyone else in the field and at least have a fairly high chance of making the cut. Honestly, just making the cut will be an accomplishment on its own no matter what the odds are on a golfer heading into the week. Todd has appeared in just three U.S. Opens, only making the cut once (finished T17 in 2014), but he enters off of a two-win season and arguably the best season of his PGA career. Todd also has a reliable putter and rolls it well on Poa annua greens (12th in SG: Putt - Poa). As a bit of an obscure stat from last season, Todd averaged the 7th best score before the cut in relation to this field, so that sorta nudges me even more into the belief that he can at least play himself into the weekend.

Jason Kokrak | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.4k

Vegas: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #28 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 22nd SG: BS | 47th P4 AVG | 54th Bogey Avd. | 76th SG: ATG | 77th Three-Putt Avd. | 59th Driving Acc. | 25th Rough Prox.

Kokrak was stringing together a very forgettable season up until the final stretch where he finished T15, T13, and T6 across his final three events (Wyndham Championship, Northern Trust, & BMW Championship). He’s capable of going on birdie runs, even at difficult venues, and the distance of Winged Foot shouldn’t be an issue for Kokrak (ranks 4th in field in Driving Distance). If he continues the late season momentum he showed just a few weeks ago, Kokrak could be one of the better GPP values on the board.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Xander Schauffele | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.4k

Vegas: 14/1 | CMR: #6 | Cash & GPP

Schauffele is about as consistent of a golfer as you can find. He rarely posts a disappointing result and he has crushed at the U.S. Open venues in the last three years with finishes of 3rd, 6th, and 5th. Easily in play this week.

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.4k

Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #43 | GPP Preferred

Fleetwood hasn’t punched in a great result on the PGA Tour since prior to the season shutdown when he landed a solo 3rd place finish at The Honda Classic in late-February. However, he does enter this week on the heels of a T3 at the Portugal Masters on the EURO Tour, so that can only be a positive sign heading into Winged Foot. Fleetwood also has a T4 and runner-up finish at the U.S. Open within the last three years.

Patrick Reed | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10k

Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #10 | GPP Preferred

Reed is a little volatile but he often plays difficult courses really well and makes some heroic runs to push toward the top of the leaderboard. The opposite is also equally as true, so I’d only deploy him in GPPs.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.3k

Vegas: 80/1 | CMR: #38 | Cash & GPP

Oosty may be one of the more appealing and safer options to target in the mid-range. He has finished inside the top 25 in five straight U.S. Opens and he comes in with solid form, making 14/16 cuts last season, including seven straight heading into this week.

Matt Kuchar | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9k

Vegas: 125/1 | CMR: #46 | GPP Preferred

There are some concerns to be had surrounding Kuch after he withdrew from the Safeway Open last week for undisclosed reasons. Odds are, it was simply to get some additional time off ahead of this week’s Major. I wouldn’t put a ton of trust into him, given his recent form, but he has finished 28th or better at the U.S. Open in eight of the last ten years, so he does tend to show up for this event.

Mackenzie Hughes | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.3k

Vegas: 150/1 | CMR: #44 | Cash & GPP

Hughes made a name for himself in the FedEx Cup playoffs where he finished top 15 in all three events. His game is carried mostly by his elite putter (10th in SG: Putt - Poa) but his tee to green game was certainly trending upward as the 2019-20 season came to a close.

Brian Harman | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k

Vegas: 500/1 | CMR: #17 | GPP Preferred

Definitely not the worst guy to ‘punt’ after he ended this past season with a T11 and T12. Harman was the runner-up at the 2017 U.S. Open.

My One and Done Pick

Xander Schauffele | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.4k

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That will do it for our US Open preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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