By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour rolls into Cromwell, Connecticut where TPC River Highlands will play host to the Travelers Championship. Following the US Open last week, many top golfers have chosen to take this event off. However, this will still be a talented 156-player field that features just over half of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers. Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, and Patrick Reed are just a few names that headline this tournament. The 36-hole cut rule will revert back to normal so the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC River Highlands

Par 70 | 6,841 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Annua Mixture

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 32nd, 19th, 25th, 21st, 26th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -3, -1, -1, +1, Even

Winning Score Last 5 Years: -19, -17, -17, -12, -14

TPC River Highlands is nearly the shortest course on the PGA Tour which will allow for a large portion of the field the ability to really compete for a high finish, or even a podium, as bombers won’t necessarily have any significant advantage. Instead, precision over power will be the name of the game. TPC River Highlands was redesigned by the famous Pete Dye back in 1982. Golfers will be visually intimidated off of the tee and forced into finding the correct landing zones in order to set up a more advantageous approach shot. There are a total of 69 bunkers that players will have to navigate, as well as four water hazards that come into play on a third of the holes. Elite ball strikers should really thrive on this layout.

The fairways here are average in width but narrow considerably around the 300-yard mark. Many players will opt to club down in order to avoid the rough, which isn’t to troublesome so long as a ball lands in the first cut. However, that rough gets thicker and more problematic the further away a golfer misses from the fairway. In recent years, players hit these fairways at about a 67% clip, which is roughly 6% higher than the Tour average. A sharp mid-iron game is important, as about 45% of approach shots will come from a distance of 125-175 yards to the pin. The mixed bentgrass/poa green complexes average about 5,300 square feet, which is smaller than average by PGA Tour standards. They are softer, receptive greens that will run at average speeds (11-12 on the stimpmeter). Since this is a Par 70, there are only two Par 5s available and four Par 3s. However, there are still plenty of entertaining scoring holes scattered throughout, though many of them are high ‘risk/reward’ in nature. In 2019, TPC River Highlands saw players score the 14th most birdies across all courses played for the season but it also generated the 10th most bogeys. This is sure to be another tightly contested, entertaining event that will likely come down to the wire with high-level competitors. Depending on the weather, we can usually expect the cut line to land around even par with the eventual winner in the mid-teens under par.

Weather ⛅

Fortunately, for full four round DFS contest formats, the worst of the windy weather is set to blow in through the weekend rounds. With that being said, there is a chance a wave advantage could come into play this week. Winds should be very manageable all day Thursday and into Friday morning. However, Friday afternoon could see some potential for somewhat gusty conditions (15+ mph). As usual, run a final weather check on Wednesday night before making any final decisions. The most up-to-date forecast can be found by clicking the image below.

Travelers Championship Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % | 25%

4. Greens in Regulation | 10%

5. Proximity 125-175 Yards (Mid-Iron Accuracy) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Paul Casey | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Overall Model Rank: #5

When it comes to Paul Casey, the two things that stand out right away are his recent form and his elite course history. He’s coming off of a T7 at last week’s US Open, his SIXTH top 10 in his last nine events. In six starts at TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championship, Casey has not only made the cut every time but has finished runner-up twice and his only finished outside of the top five included a T32 in 2020 and a T17 in 2016. He leads the field in my most important key stat this week (SG: App) and should be set up to be a staple in cash lineups. I’m expecting him to be one of the highest owned golfers in the field this week.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $9.1k, FD: $11k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #1

Ancer checks in as the top player in my overall model for the Travelers Championship. It may actually be a blessing in disguise that he missed the cut at Torrey Pines last week. While I don’t exactly see him going overlooked, I do think the missed cut will scare at least some folks off of him. At the end of the day, Ancer, who ranks 160th on Tour in driving distance, just isn’t really going to suit a course like Torrey Pines when it’s set up as a Par 71 and plays between 7,600 and 7,700 yards. TPC River Highlands checks in at nearly 1,000 yards shorter in length and Ancer has had strong 11th and 8th place finishes here the last two years. He’s been a near shoe-in for a top 25 finish at the vast majority of his starts this year and should be ready to bounce back in a big way this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Brian Harman | DK: $8.8k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #38

Overall Model Rank: #17

I’m loving this general price range. Harman didn’t let his lack of length off the tee stop him from landing a T19 at Torrey Pines last week. Aside from missing the cut by one stroke at the PGA Championship (just one of two MCs on the season in 20 starts), that T19 was Harman’s lowest finish in his last six starts. He has three top 10s in the last six years at TPC River Highlands and should continue to just grind out excellent results while constantly playing out of the fairway.

Sam Burns | DK: $7.7k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #3

I can’t recommend going to him in cash, but Burns simply rates out too well in the models to ignore and should continue a strong GPP target. He did miss the cut last week, but it was right on the number. If he can manage to make it through the cutline, he has posted five top 10s in 12 made cuts this season so the upside is apparent. And for what it’s worth, Burns has made the cut in both of his starts at TPC River Highlands (T24 in 2020, T43 in 2019). He ranks no worse than 10th in the field in my top three key stats for the week: 10th in SG: App, 9th in P4 AVG, and 1st in BoB%. There’s an obvious risk here, but an equal amount of significant upside.

Low-Priced Targets

Guido Migliozzi | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A (Not enough PGA rounds played)

Overall Model Rank: N/A

When a guy notches a T4 in his Major championship and PGA Tour debut, I think it’d be crazy not to at least keep him in mind for your GPP player pools the following week. Cash viable? Not for me. Tournament candidate? Absolutely. Migliozzi is now the #72 ranked player in the world and had landed back-to-back runner-up finishes on the EURO Tour prior to teeing it up at Torrey Pines last week. He checks in at 24th in SG: T2G on the EURO Tour as well as 12th in greens hit in regulation (GIR). If he continues to ride the hot form, he could turn out to be an excellent value by the end of this tournament. Plus, come on, his name is “Guido.”

Talor Gooch | DK: $7k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #25

Overall Model Rank: #25

There are not many cash viable options that stick out to me out of this price range, but Gooch is definitely a golfer that does. He has missed the cut only once in his last 12 starts and enters the Travelers Championship off of back-to-back top 20 finishes (T18 @ the Memorial, T14 @ Charles Schwab). He hasn’t made it past the cutline in either of his two attempts on this course, but this is also probably the most consistent form we’ve ever seen out of Gooch throughout his career. He ranks 27th in the field in SG: App, 31st in P4 AVG, and 33rd in BoB%. I like his chances to push for a top 25 this week while also bringing some strong cut equity to the table.

Quick Hits - Other Golfers to Consider

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $11.1k, FD: $12.3k

Odds: 10/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #2

It always pains me to throw Bryson a recommendation and, not gonna lie, his implosion down the final round stretch last week was beautiful to watch. BUT, I would assume we’ll see a quick bounceback out of him and he was looking like the favorite to win the US Open for a while last Sunday. DeChambeau returns to TPC River Highlands where he has finished top 10 for three consecutive years.

Charley Hoffman | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #6

Hoffman has reeled off 13 made cuts and has had plenty of success at TPC River Highlands, making 9-of-11 cuts with three top 10s. His ball-striking has been excellent and he checks in at 12th in BoB%.

Si Woo Kim | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #22

Overall Model Rank: #23

When a Pete Dye designed course is in play, just put Si Woo directly into your GPP player pool. He has found some of the most success in his career on Pete Dye courses and is coming off of a T11 here last year.

Russell Henley | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Overall Model Rank: #30

Henley has some of the best irons on the entire PGA Tour (ranks 2nd in the field in SG: App this week), but the flat stick is a major source of inconsistency. He entered last Sunday in a three-way tie for the lead but ultimately settled for a T13 finish. He has had some success at TPC River Highlands in the past (T6 in 2018, T11 in 2016) and should be on the GPP radar this week.

Doc Redman | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #33

Overall Model Rank: #16

Redman is absolutely trending in the right direction and has now gained strokes with his irons in four straight starts. He returns to TPC River Highlands where he landed a T11 finish in his Travelers Championship debut last year.

Rickie Fowler | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP (& DK) Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #93

Overall Model Rank: #44

If you’re on DraftKings, I’m not sure how you can look past Fowler’s $7,300 price tag and not at least thing about playing him in tournaments. He’s been a hot mess to figure out all season but seems to be finding legitimate form after a T11 at the Memorial and a T8 at the PGA Championship. He hasn’t played at TPC River Highlands since all the way back in 2013, but he did end the week with a top 15 finish that year.

Brendan Steele | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #61

Overall Model Rank: #48

Missed the cut last week but ran a 12 made-cut streak prior to that (though, with quite a few unspectacular finishes). The real draw here is his immense course history. Steele has made 8-of-10 cuts at TPC River Highlands with all eight of those made cuts ending in a top 25 finish, two inside the top 10.

Satoshi Kodaira | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k

Odds: 350/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #40

Overall Model Rank: #45

I don’t see any real reason why Kodaira is priced all the way down here this week. He comes in off of three straight top 20s on the PGA Tour (T11, T13, & T19) and is a decent bet to simply make it past the cutline, which would be immediate value. Honestly, if you want to go here in cash and spend up on studs/tier two golfers, I wouldn’t totally hate the idea. Kodaira is accurate off the tee and has shown some solid iron play, so his game should fit this course nicely (past history be damned).

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Brian Harman

As stated when I highlighted him above, Harman is just churning out solid result after solid result and has three top 10s at TPC River Highlands in the last six years. There is legitimate win equity with Harman and plenty of safety attached as well.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options still available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the complete 2020-21 PGA season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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