By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

The world’s best head out to Torrey Pines Golf Club in San Diego, California to compete in the 121st edition of the US Open. The 156-man field is loaded up with talent as every top 60 ranked golfer in the OWGR is in attendance. The US Open also provides exemptions to many other lower ranking pros and amateurs alike who punched their ticket via qualifying competitions across the country. Recent Major winners who rank outside the top 60 in the OWGR, like Phil Mickelson, are also extended an invite along with qualifying amateurs around the world and other players who meet special exemptions as determined by the USGA. This tournament truly provides some of the best storylines every year -- not just in golf, but in the world of sports as a whole. There will be no shortage of narratives to back and underdogs to root for. The US Open also implements a unique cut rule where only the top 60 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. With that in mind, we could end up seeing a very low 6/6 rate this week. Carnage, chaos, jubilation, and exasperation will be ingrained with every shot this week before an eventual winner can be crowned on Father’s Day Sunday.

The Course Preview ⛳

For anyone unaware, Torrey Pines GC plays host to another PGA event, the Farmers Insurance Open, on an annual basis. There are two primary courses played for that event: Torrey Pines South and Torrey Pines North. The South Course is considered one of the most challenging courses on the PGA circuit and is played during three of the four rounds at the Farmers. It will be the only course played this week at the US Open. As a result, many golfers in this field will have quite a bit of experience here. However, while I will be taking course history into consideration, I won’t be weighing it as heavily as I would normally. The tough standards held up by the USGA for selected US Open venues should push an already difficult course up a few notches via slight course adjustments and alterations. The last time this course hosted the US Open back in 2008, only two players finished the tournament under par -- Tiger Woods and Rocco Mediate. While it doesn’t hurt at all to have some respectable history and knowledge at Torrey Pines South, we can’t necessarily look at this as the same exact track that golfers play during the Farmers Insurance Open. Rather, I think it will be as (or possibly more) important to factor in performances at other long, difficult courses (like previous US Opens and other Majors), recent form heading into this week, positive splits on Poa greens, and of course, some strokes gained data and other various metrics which will be outlined in the “key stats” section below.

The South Course at Torrey Pines will set up as a Par 71 (traditionally plays as a Par 72) which will extend between 7,600 and 7,700 yards, depending on pin location. This makes it the longest course on Tour, not counting the Ocean Course (7,876 yard scorecard length) which was rotated in for the 2021 PGA Championship and is not played on an annual basis. Two of the three Par 5s will play at over 600 yards, three Par 4s will push or exceed 500+ yards (the 515 yard Par 4 sixth hole normally plays as a Par 5 for the Farmers), and three of the four Par 3s check-in at 195+ yards. Does that mean bombers are a necessity? Not exactly, but a big driver absolutely does not hurt. Five Par 4s will check-in at under 450 yards so as long as shorter hitters are efficient with their long irons on those lengthier holes, they can certainly compete.

Off the tee, golfers will be aiming down narrow tree-lined fairways which are usually hit only about 50% of the time during the Farmers Insurance Open, which already represents some of the lowest fairway accuracy numbers on Tour. With more firm and demanding conditions in play this week, we should likely predict that even less than 50% of driven golf balls will land in the short grass. Aside from the high number of fairway bunkers in play, the surrounding rough will be ruthless and will force challenging punch outs and, in some cases, result in completely lost golf balls. The rough will also be of varying lengths so a wayward ball could find itself settled in somewhat manageable four inch rough depending on the lie -- yet if it were hit a few feet in any other direction, it could be buried in suffocating six inch rough. Those varying rough lengths will come into play more frequently around the greens as opposed to around the fairways, so the ability to get out of (literally) rough situations around the greens will be crucial as well. On approach, golfers will be targeting multi-tiered greens which range from small to average in size with moderate undulation. Most greenside bunkers will protect towards the front of the greens and that aforementioned thick rough will stand guard all around as well. Torrey Pines South is one of the few courses on Tour which has pure Poa Annua putting surfaces. Those Poa greens will be set to run firm and fast -- around 13.5 on the stimpmeter. It’s going to take a great deal of skill, mental fortitude, and a bit of luck with some of those lies in the rough to succeed here. This should be a hell of an exciting week for golf fans and PGA DFS players alike so let’s go ahead and get a peek at the weather, the key stats which I’ll be weighing, and some golfers to consider for lineups!

Weather ⛅

I’ll keep it short and sweet here. There are no real weather concerns or notable wave advantages to mention this week. The California temps will be in the low 70s basically all four rounds with no rain in sight and, most importantly, very little wind to worry about. Sustained winds should rarely hit double digit speeds.

US Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

Preface: Normally I will stick to five or, at most, six key statistical metrics in any given week. I’m bumping the analytics up a notch and including ten key stats which I am weighing into my PGA model for the US Open.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 20%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens (SG: ATG) | 15%

3. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 10%

4. Driving Distance | 10%

5. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 10%

6. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

7. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

8. Par 5 Average (P5 AVG) | 5%

9. Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa) | 5%

10. Proximity from the Rough | 5%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated for each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, etc.

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 10/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #3

The last time we saw him two weeks ago, Rahm was in line to notch a landslide victory at the Memorial when he amassed a runaway six shot 54-hole lead heading into the final round. Of course, as most are aware, after being listed as a close contact for someone who tested positive for COVID, Rahm tested positive himself following that third round and he was forced to withdraw from the tournament. Just a brutal break. But, the good news is that Rahm is feeling good and, from what I can tell, he is now fully focused on the US Open and is not caught up on what happened at the Memorial at all. Rahm is the prototypical golfer you would want at a track like Torrey Pines South evidenced by his success at the Farmers Insurance Open, which he won back in 2017, and where he has finished T7, 2nd, and T5 at over the last three years. He’s a world-class ball striker with great long irons, he possesses more than adequate length off the tee (and is fairly accurate as well), he excels at Par 5s, can be creative around the greens, has positive Poa putting splits, and is efficient at avoiding dropped shots. He’s still searching for that first Major win but he has made 8/10 cuts at Majors over the last three years with three top 5s. With such soft pricing in play, it really won’t be too difficult fitting Rahm into lineups this week.

Tony Finau | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 28/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #6

It’s been quite a while since I’ve felt comfortable backing Tony Finau, but this seems like a good time to get on board. Finau’s winning upside is certainly suspect as his only PGA Tour victory came at the 2016 Puerto Rico Open (also it’s worth Googling the “Puerto Rico Open curse”). However, his consistency in Majors cannot be ignored. He’s made the cut in nine of his last ten Major appearances which have included six top 10s and three top 5s. Finau also stands out as a course fit and has cashed plenty of large checks following his performance at Torrey Pines. He’s made 7/7 cuts at the Farmers Insurance Open and has landed finishes of T6 or better in four of the last five years. His driving distance has decreased over the last few months, but he can easily hit it 300+ yards on a routine basis. He’s also a proficient iron player from 200+ yards out and ranks 5th in the field in SG: ATG. Despite Finau being allergic to winning, I’m honestly tempted to throw a little cash at his 28/1 outright odds… but at the very least I love his chances at a top 10 finish, which would be enough to outperform his current DFS salaries.

Mid-Priced Targets

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #19

Overall Model Rank: #7

Oosty is likely in line to be a fairly chalky play out of this price range but the recent form alongside his strong history in Majors, US Opens in particular, cannot be overlooked. He enters this US Open week with eight consecutive made cuts on the PGA Tour, including four finishes of T11 or better in that stretch which was highlighted by a co-runner-up result behind Phil Mickelson at the 2021 PGA Championship. He has also made 12/13 cuts on the season overall. Oosthuizen has finished no worse than T23 in any US Open over the last six years and he has notched three top 10s, including a runner-up (2015), in US Opens during that span. He simply shows up and plays efficient, dependable golf, particularly when there is a lot at stake. Oosty’s distance off the tee isn’t going to put him in the bomber category, as he only averages about 290-295 yards/drive. But he is one of those non-bombers who I imagine can succeed by gaining more fairways than most, by being more accurate from long approach distances than most, and by hitting more greens in regulation than most. In this field, he’s one of the better golfers around the greens (15th SG: ATG) and has strong Poa putting splits (13th SG: Putt - Poa). There’s really no “lock” at a US Open and one or two disastrous holes can knock anyone out of contention of even making the cut, but with all things considered, Oosthuizen feels like a damn safe investment at these salaries.

Sam Burns | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Overall Model Rank: #16

Burns had to withdraw from the PGA Championship a month ago due to a back injury but was able to return a couple of weeks later at the Memorial where he posted a ho-hum T50 finish. Prior to the WD at the PGA Championship, he had a runner-up finish (Byron Nelson) and a win (Valspar) in consecutive starts. If the back issue is behind him, Burns stands out as a very notable leverage play who should garner only about 7-10% ownership in GPPs. He’s not the most consistent cut-maker with 12/18 made cuts on the year. However, he has gone on to snag five top 10s this season. So he has posted a top 10 finish nearly half the time he has made the cut. Burns also has some recent success at Torrey Pines South after finishing T18 at the Farmers back in late January. That week, he was actually in the final pairing on Sunday. However, a couple of disastrous holes in the final round led him to drop out of contention. He ranks 30th or better in 8/10 key stats and profiles as an excellent course fit. If Burns’ health isn’t an issue and he manages to make it past the cut line, the ceiling is massive.

Low-Priced Targets

Adam Scott | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #57

Overall Model Rank: #38

There’s nothing really flashy about Adam Scott’s game right now but “flashy” can be reserved for birdie-fests… which this US Open won’t be. Scott is still fully capable of grinding a difficult course when it calls for it. His last two trips to Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) have also resulted in a T10 (2021) and a 2nd place finish (2019). Scott’s penchant for difficult courses, particularly of the Major variety, shows through his 9/10 made cut record in Majors over the last three seasons (three top 10s). While he has been picky in what events he has chosen to compete in lately, since the 2020 ‘COVID restart’ dating back almost exactly a year ago to the day, Scott has just one missed cut to his name across 16 starts. Adam Scott enters the week following one of his better finishes of the 2020-21 season (T16 - the Memorial) and tends to show up well in West Coast events. He’s also a strong putter on Poa surfaces and can certainly bomb it when he needs to (13th in driving distance).

Taylor Pendrith | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k

Odds: 500/1 | GPP Only

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Pendrith is an absolute long shot GPP punt play who currently makes his dough on the Korn Ferry Tour and has super limited experience at PGA level events. With that said, he did qualify for last year’s US Open at Winged Foot GC where he went on to surprise many with a T23 finish. Pendrith is a certified bomber and has a legitimate chance to finish among the top three or four golfers in driving distance this week. He averages right at 320 yards/drive on the KFT. His fairway accuracy is definitely not his strong suit but most golfers will be struggling to hit more than 50% of fairways anyway this week, so perhaps that isn’t necessarily a deal-breaker so long as he’s not launching every drive into that treacherous rough. Again, these are going off of his Korn Ferry Tour numbers, but his irons and putting stats have been solid and his 69.31 scoring average ranks 8th on the KFT. He’ll be a Hail Mary play, but if he gets past the cut line, Pendrith will have a chance to make some noise and provide significant value.

Quick Hits - Other Golfers to Consider

Brooks Koepka | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 16/1 | GPP Only | Key Stats: #8 | OMR: #17

It’s the US Open so Koepka has to land on the GPP radar. In his last three US Opens, he has two wins and a runner-up finish. Also, DeChambeau is the reigning US Open champ and if you know anything about their whole feud, you know Koepka is going to do his best to show him up this week.

Rory McIlroy | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 20/1 | GPP Preferred | Key Stats: #24 | OMR: #31

Rory is not too far removed from his win at the Wells Fargo Championship. He has T16, T3, and T5 finishes here over the last three years at the Farmers Insurance Open and has back-to-back top 10s in the US Open. He can obviously bomb it down the fairways and turn his game up to an elite level at any time.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.3k, FD: $11.4k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP | Key Stats: #9 | OMR: #13

X has finished T6 or better in each of the last four US Opens and has made 14/15 cuts throughout his career in Majors. He finished 2nd at the Farmers this season. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship but with his well-established historical success on tough courses and in loaded fields, it’s impossible to count him out.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred | Key Stats: #14 | OMR: #22

This is a strong pivot play-off of other higher-owned guys around him. Hatton is one of the premiere iron players in the world, especially from long distances, and weak field aside, he is coming off of that T2 at last week’s Palmetto Championship.

Paul Casey | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP | Key Stats: #10 | OMR: #5

Casey is gonna be chalk but he’ll be a tough guy to fade outright at these salaries. Between the PGA and EURO Tours, he has a remarkable seven top 10s over his last 11 worldwide starts. He’s made 8/10 cuts in Majors over the last three years and despite an inconsistent putter, he simply crushes with his ball-striking and will rarely torch your lineups.

Jason Kokrak | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred | Key Stats: #35 |OMR: #21

Kokrak has a pair of PGA wins and five top 10s on the year but these DFS salaries definitely wouldn’t lead you to believe that. He’s capable of bombing it and can pair that with a strong iron game and a newly consistent putter. He has also finished inside the top 30 in 4/5 appearances at Torrey Pines (Farmers).

Shane Lowry | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 50/1 | Cash & GPP | Key Stats: #34 | OMR: #19

These are just blatant misprices on Lowry this week when you stack up his recent success against other golfers around him. Three top 10s in his last four starts (T4 @ PGA Champ) and has just one MC in his last 11 worldwide starts. He brings a well-rounded game that should fit well at Torrey Pines South.

Garrick Higgo | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred | Key Stats: N/A | OMR: N/A

Since US Open salaries came out prior to the finish of last week’s Palmetto Championship, which Higgo of course won, then he's easily going to appear to be about $500 to $1,000 too cheap. I don’t like chasing guys who just won the previous week, but Higgo has great length off the tee and putts the ball very well which are two qualities you want in a golfer this week. I’m not sure how well he will fare on this specific highly difficult course which features tricky pure Poa greens, but he’ll definitely land on the GPP radar.

Wilco Nienaber | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Only | Key Stats: N/A | OMR: N/A

This is purely a “for fun” play. If you only play a single lineup or just a handful of lineups, skip over this guy. But Nienaber (pronounced “Knee-Knobber”) could very well out-drive everyone in this field... even Bryson. In his PGA Tour debut last week, where he finished T14, he routinely crushed 340+ yard drives with ease and he has previously hit a EURO Tour record 439-yard tee shot along with a reported 200+ mph club head speed. Maybe he’s just a one-trick pony and will go on to miss the cut by a wide margin, but it’ll be fun watching him launch some golf balls down these fairways.

Jhonattan Vegas | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k

Odds: 300/1 | GPP Only | Key Stats: #49 | OMR: #41

Vegas’ prowess off the tee will keep him within punt consideration for tournaments. He has posted two top 10s in his last three starts and does provide some relatively solid course history (7/11 made cuts @ Farmers).

Chan Kim | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7k

Odds: 750/1 | GPP Only | Key Stats: N/A | OMR: N/A

Kim is one final punt play to keep in mind this week. He is the No. 83 ranked golfer in the world and after making three straight cuts on the PGA Tour, highlighted by a T23 at the PGA Championship, I see no reason for him to be basically min-priced on both sites. Kim has been dominating on the Japan Golf Tour and is another guy who profiles as a bomber, yet he is capable of hitting a surprising number of fairways along the way. If the irons are decent and he makes a few putts, there’s huge ‘fantasy point per dollar’ upside at these price points.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Brooks Koepka

I have to admit, I burned through a lot of the more elite golfers earlier in the season which has resulted in me scrambling at times for a One and Done pick for certain events. However, since the start of the season I was pretty dead-set on saving Brooks for the US Open. Even though I know there is quite a bit of risk factored in, I'm not going to shy away from throwing Koepka out there for US Open week! Let's get it!

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options still available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the complete 2020-21 PGA season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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