By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota where TPC Twin Cities will play host to the 3M Open. This will only be the third year where this course and tournament have been on the PGA circuit, so course history will certainly be limited. The strength of the field obviously does not compare to the one from last week’s Open Championship, but there are still plenty of recognizable names teeing it up this week. In total, 26 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be in attendance with guys like Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, and Patrick Reed headlining the field. The 36-hole cut rule will revert back to the usual “top 65 + ties” making it into the weekend. We’re only three weeks out from the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and with the Olympic Men’s Golf Competition taking up the schedule for next week, the 3M Open will be one of the last chances for golfers to secure valuable FEC points! This should be a solid event and if you like birdies, there will be plenty of those coming up over the next few days!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Twin Cities

Par 71 - 7,431 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty: 23rd (2020), 36th (2019)

First Tee: Thursday, July 22nd @ 7:50 am ET

This course may be making just its third appearance on the PGA Tour but TPC Twin Cities has been on the Champions Tour circuit for quite some time. For the uninformed, that’s the senior’s golf tour and even those older gentlemen are able to tear up this place – regularly winning with a score of around 20-under. The PGA did add over 250 yards in length to better challenge the PGA caliber players when TPC Twin Cities was added onto the circuit in 2019, but it is still a complete birdie fest and we should anticipate a winning score pretty similar to what we have seen the last couple years (-19 & -21) -- weather permitting!

That isn’t to say TPC Twin Cities doesn’t have any teeth. There are 72 bunkers to navigate as well as a whopping 27 water hazards which come into play on 15-of-18 holes. Since this is a Par 71, there are three Par 5 holes in play. All three of these Par 5s will play just above 590 yards, so any golfer with above-average length off of the tee should have plenty of chances at going low on those holes. The last two seasons, essentially a third of all birdies scored came from those three holes as well, so you can safely assume I’ll be targeting golfers who excel at Par 5 scoring. Since this course is on the longer side, it is no surprise that 25% of all approach shots come from 200+ yards, so that will be an important approach range to keep in mind. Aside from that, I’ll be taking a pretty basic approach with my remaining key stats that should correlate well with this course. Those are strokes gained on approach, overall birdie or better percentage, and Par 4 scoring average. I’m also going to throw some lightweight on driving distance as well. The rough at TPC Twin Cities is very manageable, especially by comparison to last week, so wayward drivers won’t be penalized too much and the fairways are slightly wider than average, to begin with. The bentgrass greens are also multi-tiered and above average in size and when it comes to green speeds they should run average to slightly fast (about 12 on the stimpmeter). In general, there just isn’t anything overly challenging about this place so long as the weather stays fairly cooperative. So, as I mentioned, we should see plenty of scoring in this one!

Weather ⛅

Temperature and Rain: Currently, there is no danger of any rounds getting rained out but it is going to be HOT. At times this week, temperatures could hit 100+ degrees around midday and in the afternoon. Hope these guys stay hydrated!

Wind: So, it’s not exactly going to be calm conditions, especially in the first couple rounds. Sustained winds should hit 10-15 mph on both Thursday and Friday with gusts hitting 20-25 mph. Nothing too crazy, but it could reduce the scoring upside a bit. Things calm down on the weekend, and I still think we see ample birdies fall, especially on Saturday AKA “Moving Day”.

Verdict: I could see a possibility where the PM/AM wave has slightly less windy conditions to play their first two rounds in, but ultimately it may be pretty negligible. I’m not currently making any decisions on golfers in my player pool based in any weather advantage.

3M Open Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

5. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 5%

6. Driving Distance | 5%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank (OMR); a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Tony Finau | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 16/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Overall Model Rank: #14

It’s a really tough call on which high-dollar options to highlight this week. I believe you can make a case for and against all of these guys out of the ‘elite’ tier. So I’ll start with Finau. He’s had an oscillating run of success and failure in recent months. Over his last ten starts, aside from one event (T32 @ the Memorial), Finau has either missed the cut (five times) or finished T20 or better (four times). He’s coming off of a strong T15 at last week’s Open Championship and showed the sort of game we’ve been used to seeing out of him in recent years. While course history is not overly important this week, Finau will be the only $10k+ (DK)/$11k+ (FD) golfer who has competed here at TPC Twin Cities in each of its first two years on the PGA rotation. He came away with a T3 in 2020 and a T23 in 2019. I would be very shocked to see Finau struggle on an easy course like this one which should continue to feature a ton of birdie (and eagle) opportunities. Finau’s only win on the PGA Tour came in 2016 at the Puerto Rico Open. If there is ever going to be an event for Finau to end his five year drought, it would stand to be one like this week’s 3M Open.

Cam Davis | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #3

Cam Davis’ finishes are inconsistent to say the least. However, he is just a few weeks removed from his win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and he landed a T12 at TPC Twin Cities a season ago. His game is a true course fit here and he ranks 25th or better in all six of my key stats listed above. Most notable, he is 1st in BoB%, 3rd in Proximity from 200+ Yards, 5th in Par 5 BoB%, and 13th in Driving Distance. He’s also 4th on the PGA Tour in eagle frequency and he should get a few looks at those eagle chances this week. Though there is some risk, he simply offers up a ton of scoring upside and will be a core target for me in GPPs.

Mid-Priced Targets

Patton Kizzire | DK:$8.6k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #8

Overall Model Rank: #14

With a lackluster top tier of golfers to choose from in this field, I believe getting the correct guys out of the mid-range will be the key to success this week. Kizzire is normally not a golfer I go for in DFS, but we’re looking for major scoring upside this week and Kizzire fits the bill. He is 2nd in the field in overall BoB%, ranks 11th in Par 4 AVG, and 13th in Par 5 BoB%. He can be carried at times with his putter but has shown some serviceable iron play throughout this season and enters into the week with a T11 and T25 in his last two starts. He has also played at TPC Twin Cities in each of the last two years and made the cut both times. The final results weren’t spectacular (T46 in 2020, T34 in 2019), but it is a nice bonus to have a guy who has shown moderate success and is more familiar with a fairly new PGA Tour course like this one. Kizzire is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour, has six top 11 finishes this season, and had back-to-back T3s not all that long ago back in May. At 66/1 odds, it may be worth throwing a few bucks on him to win as well, if you’re into betting PGA.

Hank Lebioda | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Overall Model Rank: #2

Lebioda is going to be incredibly high-owned this week, particularly on DraftKings at his $7,900 price tag. It would make sense from a leverage standpoint to either fade him in GPPs or lower exposure considerably. He leads the field in fantasy scoring over his past five events and enters off of a T8, T4, and T5 in his last three starts with seven straight made cuts. Lebioda is also another golfer who has played this tournament in both of the previous two seasons and came away with a T26 and T34. To say he comes into the 3M Open in better form than either of the last two seasons would be a massive understatement. He might be simply the most obvious play of the week but I’ll be hard-pressed to fade him myself.

Low-Priced Targets

Beau Hossler | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 100/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #89

Overall Model Rank: #40

Hossler is not the sharpest of iron players and tends to rely on getting hot with the putter, but that will simply knock him out of cash game consideration. The putter has been working for him lately and has helped lead to four top 25s in his last five starts. He ranks 10th in the field in SG: Putting (Bentgrass) and also has good distance off the tee. Hossler missed the cut on the number at last year’s 3M Open but recorded a respectable T34 in 2019. He is more of a gut play as opposed to one that makes sense on paper, but we’re going to see a lot of those kinda guys near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. Hossler feels like he could be one of those guys.

Kevin Tway | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #53

Overall Model Rank: #34

Tway has only made 8-of-20 cuts this season but he’s gone 4-for-4 over the last month with finishes of T26, T23, and T14 over his last three. Tway is one of the longer hitters in the field and has the ability to just come out and “bomb and gouge” a very get-able course like TPC Twin Cities. If he can gain a couple of strokes against the field with his irons, he has some sneaky top 10 upside as well.

Quick Hits - Other Golfers to Consider

Dustin Johnson | DK: $11.3k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 8/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #6

If DJ decides to actually care about this event, he could quite comfortably sleepwalk his way to a win.

Patrick Reed | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Overall Model Rank: #4

After burning plenty of people with his missed cut at The Open last week, Reed could be a solid leverage play up top. He’ll still garner some decent ownership, but probably not as high as DJ, Oosty, or Finau. Reed could use a strong week and I think he’ll be going for a podium finish.

Bubba Watson | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #38

Overall Model Rank: #19

Bubba is knocking down plenty of birdies lately and should get a few eagle chances as well. Watson is sitting at 68th in the FedEx Cup standings and would benefit beyond just this week if he can snag a strong finish.

Robert MacIntyre | DK: $9k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 33/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A (Not enough PGA rounds played)

Overall Model Rank: N/A

MacIntyre impressed with a T8 at The Open, marking his sixth straight made cut on the PGA Tour and he has 14-of-15 made cuts worldwide this season. He’s currently the #48 ranked player in the world but I would expect him to fly under the radar since there are more recognizable PGA Tour names priced around him.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #27

Overall Model Rank: #17

Riding some nice form with three straight top 30s. The iron play is suspect but he’s a terrific putter on bentgrass greens and ranks 9th in the field in BoB%.

Charl Schwartzel | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #31

Overall Model Rank: #9

Only one missed cut over his last ten starts and he’s finished T26 or better in six of his last eight. Schwartzel looked great here last year on his way to a T3 finish.

Luke List | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Overall Model Rank: #12

List may be a bit chalky this week after back-to-back top 5s over the last two weeks. I never trust List in cash, but his scoring potential is a major plus (2nd in P5 BoB%, 10th in BoB%) and he can out-drive nearly everyone in this field (4th in Driving Distance).

Mito Pereira | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Pereira was tearing it up on the Korn Ferry Tour and back-to-back wins in June allowed him to compete in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. I had him mentioned in that section that week and of course he MC’d. But he bounced back with a T34 at the John Deere Classic and a T5 at last week’s alternate PGA event (Barbasol Championship). He’s a solid sleeper pick this week with plenty of scoring upside.

Adam Schenk | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Overall Model Rank: #10

Schenk’s game is trending nicely and he sticks out noticeably in my stats and player models from this price range.

Cameron Percy | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #28

Overall Model Rank: #28

Percy is a borderline cash-viable punt and there is definitely no reason for him to be minimum salary on FD. He ranks 5th in the field in SG: Approach. He isn’t long off the tee, but he is solid from 200+ yards out (29th in Proximity) and is 1st in the field in greens hit in regulation. If he can get the putter going, it could be a nice week for Percy.

Wes Roach | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k

Odds: 350/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #91

Overall Model Rank: #60

The upside is questionable and he’s certainly on the riskier side of “cash safe,” however Roach has made seven consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour. If he makes the weekend this week, he’ll hit value with ease at these salaries.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Cam Davis

Davis is one of a handful of golfers who I could see going 20-under par this week, which is of course what it will likely take to win the tournament, unless the winds really wreak havoc. Sure, Davis is pretty boom-or-bust but I’m going for some slightly riskier picks this late in the season (and already used guys like DJ, Oosty, Reed, and Finau earlier in the year). 

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options still available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the complete 2020-21 PGA season.

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.