Written by Ryan Humphries

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota where TPC Twin Cities will play host to the 3M Open. This was a brand new event last season, so there isn’t going to be much course history to lean on, but you can bet that this place will play night and day different from Muirfield Village last week. Jon Rahm won The Memorial last week by three strokes with a score of 9-under. That same 9-under score would have tied for 53rd place at the 3M Open last season and 12 shots back from the winner, Matthew Wolff (-21).

The first thing everyone may notice is how weak this field is by comparison to the previous six PGA events since the season had its restart. After this tournament, the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational comes around, which most of the top players will compete in. The following week is the PGA Championship, then the three FedEx Cup playoff events (Wyndham Championship, The Northern Trust, BMW Championship) before, finally, the season wraps up with the TOUR Championship. So this is pretty much the only week that many of the elite golfers will have time to catch some R & R before the season enters the home stretch. In total, only 17 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world are in attendance this week, so we’ll definitely have to dig a little deeper into some lesser known names. The field also goes back up to the normal amount of 156 players (was 133 last week) while the normal 36-hole cut rule stays in effect (top 65 plus ties make the weekend). It’ll be very interesting to see what percentage of lineups get all six golfers thru the cut line for this one!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Twin Cities

Par 71 - 7,468 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty: 36th out of 52 in 2019

First Tee: Thursday, July 23rd @ 7:50 am ET

Top Finishers in 2019

Matthew Wolf (-21)

Bryson DeChambeau (-20)

Collin Morikawa (-20)

Adam Hadwin (-18)

Wyndham Clark (-17)

Carlos Ortiz (-17)

This course may be making just its second appearance on the PGA Tour but TPC Twin Cities has been on the Champions Tour circuit for quite some time. For the uninformed, that’s the senior’s golf tour and even those older gentlemen are able to tear up this place -- regularly winning with a score of around 20-under. The PGA did add over 250 yards in length to better challenge the PGA caliber players but it is still a complete birdie fest and we should anticipate a winning score pretty similar to what we saw Matthew Wolff shoot last year (21-under).

That isn’t to say TPC Twin Cities doesn’t have any teeth. There are 72 bunkers to navigate as well as a whopping 27 water hazards which come into play on 15-of-18 holes. Since this is a Par 71, there are three Par 5 holes in play. All three of these Par 5s will play just above 590 yards so any golfer with above average length off of the tee should have plenty of chances at going low on those holes. Last season, a third of all birdies came from those three holes as well, so you can safely assume I’ll be targeting golfers who excel at Par 5 scoring. Since this course is on the longer side, it is no surprise that 25% of all approach shots came from 200+ yards here last season so that will be a key range to keep in mind. Aside from that, I’ll be taking a pretty basic approach with my other three key stats that should correlate well with this course. Those are strokes gained on approach, overall birdie or better percentage, and Par 4 scoring average. The rough at TPC Twin Cities is very manageable, especially by comparison to last week, so wayward drivers won’t be penalized too much and the fairways are slightly wider than average to begin with. The bentgrass greens are also multi-tiered and above average in size and when it comes to green speeds they should run average to slightly fast (about 12 on the stimpmeter). In general, there just isn't anything overly challenging about this place so long as the weather stays fairly cooperative. So, like I mentioned, we should see plenty of scoring in this one!

Weather ⛅

Thursday AM: Low winds, sunny, temps near 70. Should be ideal golf conditions.

Thursday PM: Winds pick up a bit to 8-10 mph but shouldn’t be too problematic. Also sunny and temps in the high 70s/low 80s.

Friday AM: 10-15 mph sustained winds with gusts of 20-25 mph. I could definitely see some wayward shots occurring as a result of some moderately windy conditions. Partly cloudy with temps in the 70s.

Friday PM: Aside from simply getting warmer, pretty identical conditions as in the morning.

Weekend: It doesn’t look like sustained winds will get too far above 10 mph but Saturday could see some gusty conditions. The main concern here is the threat of rain Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. I wouldn’t be shocked to see some revised tee times in order to avoid stoppages.

Overall: There is potential a slight AM/PM wave advantage may develop but the conditions for the first two rounds just don’t give me much worry about that *for now*. If I were to play round one showdown contests or put in some first round leader bets, I would probably lean towards early tee times, however. As always, keep an eye on the weather outlook as we get closer to Thursday morning. The forecast page is linked to the image below.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 5 Average (P5 AVG) | 20%

4. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 15%

5. Proximity 200+ Yards | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Paul Casey | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.2k

Odds: 20/1 | Custom Model Rank: #10

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I’m not quite certain where Casey’s ownership will fall this week. When it comes to this price range, I imagine he’ll be higher owned than guys like Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson but I’m almost certain he’ll fall below Tony Finau in ownership. With that in mind, I believe Casey is a worthwhile pivot away from the likely Finau chalk. A large portion of PGA DFS players are likely going to look at the missed cut Casey had last week and immediately stray away from him. But if you were paying attention, you’ll know that Casey only missed the cut at The Memorial by one stroke and it was essentially due to one disastrous hole where he produced one of the ugliest quintuple bogeys you will ever see (on ShotTracker). If he pars that hole then he makes the cut comfortably by four strokes and would have been in excellent position heading into the weekend. I can’t really state enough just how much easier TPC Twin Cities will play compared to Muirfield Village GC last week. Casey didn’t compete here last year but his game stacks up very well when looking at the key stats. In this field, he ranks 1st in SG: App, 12th in BoB%, 1st in P5 AVG, 20th in P4 AVG, and 56th in Proximity 200+ Yards. A big knock people often have on Casey is his poor putting (120th in SG: P) but in his last 18 rounds played on Bentgrass greens he has only lost -0.07 strokes per round and they have been his best putting surface going back to last year. So even a slightly above average week on the greens would pair well with his elite iron play and could have him in position for a podium run on Sunday.

Harris English | DK: $9k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #14

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Aside from a missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge (first event of the restart), English has finished no worse than T17 in his previous six starts. That includes a T13 at last week’s Memorial Tournament, which was nice to see after he was forced to withdraw from the Rocket Mortgage Classic due to testing positive for COVID-19 (reportedly he felt healthy while dealing with the virus). Not only does this course not hold a candle to Muirfield’s level of difficulty, the strength of the field is perhaps even more drastic. I see no reason why English can’t anchor your more balanced lineups this week. He ranks 17th in SG: App, 44th in BoB%, 49th in P5 AVG, 1st in P4 AVG, and 85th in Proximity 200+ Yards. While his birdie or better rate isn’t astonishing at 21.7%, he’s excellent at avoiding big numbers and his 11.4% bogey rate is the lowest in this field. Another interesting and only slightly obscure stat which I wanted to mention: English’s average score in rounds before the cut is 68.83. That’s 1st in the field this week and is only bested by Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, and Justin Thomas on the PGA Tour. You can disregard his missed cut at the 3M Open last year. He has made 12/14 cuts on the season and is primed for another excellent week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Erik van Rooyen | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 33/1 | Custom Model Rank: #24

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

EVR enters off of a very respectable T22 at the Memorial where his +8.30 strokes gained on approach ranked second in the field on the week. Now he returns to TPC Twin Cities where he played many, many times during his days as part of the University of Minnesota Gophers men’s golf team. Considering the lack of extended course experience by nearly everyone in this field, I love that feeling of a home-field advantage that van Rooyen has here. His caddie for this week, Alex Gaugert, is also a former Minnesota Gophers golfer and teammate to EVR. Between those two guys, they likely lap the field in overall course knowledge. On paper, EVR ranks 8th in SG: App, 30th in BoB%, 12th in P5 AVG, 31st in P4 AVG, and 1st in Proximity 200+ Yards. No one is ever a safe bet to deliver in PGA DFS but there are just so many positives working in van Rooyen’s favor this week. I’d be shocked by a major letdown performance.

Scott Stallings | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

For this mid-level salary range, Stallings is a major standout in my model rankings, checking in at second overall. He has made 12/16 cuts on the season, which includes made cuts in all four of his starts since the season resumed and is highlighted by a T6 at the Travelers Championship. Given the fact that his recent success came against much stricter competition, it’s hard to doubt him in this field, especially when he is pretty damn affordable. Stallings also rates out very consistently across all of the key stats I am focusing on this week. He checks in at 27th in SG: App, 23rd in BoB%, 19th in P5 AVG, 25th in P4 AVG, and 16th in Proximity 200+ Yards. I’m really liking him across the board this week.

Low-Priced Targets

Matthias Schwab | DK: $7k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: N/A

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★★

I’d like to believe I follow golf fairly closely and know most of the noteworthy guys but Schwab is one who I’m not all too familiar with, even though he is currently the No. 92 ranked player in the world. But I delved into a bit more research on him and I have to say, for these salaries, I’m pretty intrigued. Schwab plays almost exclusively on the Euro Tour but he did get his first start since March at last week’s Memorial Tournament. However, like many guys, the 2020 Memorial Tournament turned into something more akin to the Unmemorable Tournament (right DJ?) after he shot rounds of 74 and 79, finishing his first 36 holes at +9 and missing the cut. Much of Schwab’s shortcomings came on the greens, where he lost -4.53 strokes putting and his second round featured three double-bogeys. We’ll see if he can get some positive regression going with the flat stick and perhaps he got most of the quarantine rust shaken off last week. Just looking at his finishes across the last year or so, you will see a ton of potential upside. In 28 starts on the Euro Tour in 2019, Schwab carded ten top 10s which led all other [Euro Tour] golfers on the season. He doesn’t qualify for any PGA Tour stats due to a lack of measured rounds but just give a peak at all of the high-end finishes he has to his name (shown below) over the past year plus. I have to imagine that this course and overall strength of the field for this week is on par, or even weaker, than many of those Euro Tour events he competed very well in. The T4 Schwab had at the WGC-HSBC Champions back in November is also extremely impressive as most of the top players in the world compete in those WGC events. He’s really a GPP play only but I’m willing to bet he comes in at under 5% ownership yet Schwab seems to carry far more upside than a lot of guys priced around him.

Seamus Power | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.6k

Odds: 200/1 | Custom Model Rank: #16

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ | GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Power hasn’t played much this year, with just eight starts on the season, and he has made just one appearance since the restart. He did make the most of that one recent appearance when he came through with a T12 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic three weeks ago. In his 26 rounds this season, Power is averaging an excellent 4.42 birdies per round. The only seven guys who have averaged more birdies per round than Power are Hatton, Simpson, Thomas, Cantlay, DeChambeau, Reed, and Berger. Not bad company to keep. For all the key stats, in this field Power ranks 93rd in SG: App, 1st in BoB%, 10th in P5 AVG, 53rd in P4 AVG. And 38th in Proxmity 200+ Yards. He’s also a pretty reliable putter and ranks 29th in SG: P (Bentgrass). In my opinion, as the 84th most expensive option on both sites, Power is one of the more mispriced golfers this week. I’m not expecting him to cash in on those 200/1 odds to win but I think he could definitely make some noise as a proven birdie maker in what should be a birdie fest. A sneaky top 25 finish could be on the table here.

Branden Grace | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #55

FanDuel Only Play

Briefly, I just wanted to shed light on Grace because FanDuel mispriced him at the minimum $7,000 salary. While I’m not crazy about playing him, especially while he’s coming in off of three straight missed cuts, he is easily about $2,000 too cheap on FD. You can comfortably fit four really strong options into a lineup with Grace and I do believe he should make the cut this week, which is all you’d really need from him.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Tony Finau | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.6k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #1 | Cash & GPP

Yes, he’ll probably be very chalky this week, but he has to be considered the most trustworthy stud golfer in a field lacking in star power. He has some course experience with a T23 here last year and ranks 2nd in both BoB% and P4 AVG.

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.5k

Odds: 14/1 | CMR: #20 | GPP Preferred

Fleetwood is one of my favorite golfers, so I’m glad to see him back in action, but you obviously have to temper expectations for a guy who hasn’t played a competitive match in 4 1/2 months. I would be floored if he somehow completely ejected and missed the cut but for these salaries you really need at least a top 10 finish from him. He can definitely deliver that, and perhaps even a win, but that isn’t a guarantee by any means if he has too much rust to shake off.

Lucas Glover | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.6k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Spending these salaries for Glover is a difficult pill to swallow but considering he has averaged a 24th place finish in five events since the restart, in much tougher fields, that makes these lofty price tags warranted. He also finished 7th at last year’s 3M Open and he ranks 11th in SG: App and 13th in BoB% so I really can’t find many reasons against paying up for him this week.

Jhonattan Vegas | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #18 | GPP Preferred

Vegas has the perfect name because it always feels like a gamble with this guy. But prior to a missed cut at the WCO, he had made five straight cuts with four finishes being T27 or better. I like the course fit here as well, as he ranks 3rd in P5 AVG and 16th in BoB%. The only thing he needs to shore up is the iron play (99th in SG: App). I do think I will throw a few bucks for him to win outright at 66/1 odds.

Richy Werenski | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #17 | Cash & GPP

Werenski has been a pretty reliable play since the restart, making all four of his cuts. While his finishing results have really only been decent overall, he did snag a T21 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which I’d say this week’s event compares fairly well to.

Chase Seiffert | DK: $7k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #15 | GPP Preferred

Seiffert has made 9 of his last 11 cuts and most recently flashed a ton of upside with a solo 4th place finish at the Workday Charity Open. He is a little reliant on the putter (4th in SG: P - Bentgrass) but he’s worth a flyer this week, especially on DK at a flat $7k.

Ryan Brehm | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7k

Odds: 400/1 | CMR: #96 | GPP Only

Brehm is nothing more than a Hail Mary punt but he can crush long drives (313.4 yards/drive this season) and has actually made eight of his last 10 cuts on the season. Though, since the restart, Brehm has only competed in the Rocket Mortgage Classic which produced one of those MCs. Still, ya can’t really judge too harshly on just one event after a long layoff so we’ll see if Brehm can get something going this week. Alongside the elite driver, he ranks 29th in P5 AVG and 3rd in Proximity 200+ Yards. Maybe he can get some decent eagle opportunities on those Par 5s!

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That will do it for our 3M Open preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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