Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

The Player Field & Course Preview

Quickly, I’d like to apologize for this newsletter coming out a day later than it typically does. All major ISPs to the island I live on experienced a 100% internet outage due to some doofus who severed a primary fiber optic cable. But that’s my problem, not yours, so let’s get into this week’s PGA action!

For a second consecutive week, the PGA Tour will offer up a debut event with the 3M Open which will take place at TPC Twin Cities in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The (roughly) 150 players in attendance will, once again, make up a pretty weak field top to bottom now that the British Open is drawing more focus for many of the elite players. Still, we have some recognizable talent on the board with 28 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers on site which is headlined by World No. 1 Brooks Koepka. I also should mention that last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic winner, and World No. 101 Nate Lashley, will be teeing it up as well. If you don’t know that guy’s story, look into it. I’m always thrilled for a guy who gets his first PGA Tour victory, especially after learning about the sort of adversity he has been through. As usual, the top 70 (and ties) will make the 36-hole cut and advance to play on the weekend. Now, let’s get a breakdown of the course!

TPC Twin Cities will play as a Par 71 ranging between 7,400 and 7,500 yards. This track may be making its debut for the current pros, but it has been on the rotation for the PGA Champions Tour (aka, “the old guys”) from 2001 to 2018. In order to make things more of a challenge, adjustments have been made which included adding over 250 yards of length to the course’s typical layout. Even with the extra distance and narrowed fairways, we could expect another “birdie fest” considering TPC Twin Cities routinely produced some of the lowest scores across the Champions Tour. There is water in play on 15 holes but I don’t expect it to be a major concern for the majority of the field as the fairways should still remain pretty generous, despite the alterations. Overall, wind and the fast greens profile as this course’s primary defenses. There aren’t very strong winds in the forecast and anyone’s putter can get hot on any given week, so I believe we can keep the formula pretty straightforward for this one. Strong ball striking, Par 4 scoring, birdie making ability, and golfers who hit close proximity shots should reign supreme. Let’s jump into a quick look at the weather, the key stats I’m focusing my tournament model on, and some players to target for the 3M Open!

Weather ⛅

Potential for light rains heading up to, and during, this event could cause the course to play softer, resulting in lower scores and possibly giving an advantage to the longer hitters. Sustained winds aren’t projected to get above 10 mph in either of the first two rounds and that should only occur during late Thursday AM/early Thursday PM. No significant edge seems to be had this week for either wave but, if you’re getting really particular, the guys teeing off very early on Thursday morning could see the most favorable/softest conditions throughout the first two days. That is something to only consider if you are on the fence between two guys and one gets the (very) early Thursday AM draw while the other doesn’t. Otherwise, weather shouldn’t factor into your decision making for this one.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: BS) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better % (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Scoring | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 10%

5. Proximity to the Hole (Proximity) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Bryson DeChambeau (DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

DeChambeau has no doubt been a PGA DFS enigma this season. After a hot start to the year with five straight top 15 finishes, his game sort of fell off the deep end -- at least by the standards we expect from a player of his caliber. His form seems to be rounding back into shape as of late and if we’re to expect a birdie fest this week, then DeChambeau can certainly deliver. He ranks 7th in SG: BS, 1st in BoB%, 33rd in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 BoB%, and 56th in Proximity. The obvious statistical stand out here is the birdie-making ability. Despite his mid-season struggles, he still tops this field by recording a birdie (or better) on 25.11% of holes. There’s probably no need to roll him out in cash games, but he’ll make a prime GPP pivot away from Brooks/Hideki/Day. He holds 14/1 odds and ranks 11th in the overall tournament model.

Rory Sabbatini (DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Sabs has been the model of consistency since late February after notching 12 consecutive made cuts with five top 10s to boot. In this field, his recent form trails perhaps only Hideki Matsuyama yet you can grab Sabbatini for about $1,500 less on both sites. Statistically, he doesn’t “wow” you, but his season long metrics won’t put you off of him by any means. He checks in 29th in SG: BS, 15th in BoB%, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 29th in Par 5 BoB%, and 76th in Proximity. Sabbatini has carried one of the more reliable flat sticks on TOUR and should make for a great target in all formats, particularly as a foundation for cash builds. He has 33/1 odds entering this week and rates out 3rd in my model.

Mid-Priced Targets

Phil Mickelson (DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.1k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Going against the grain here for more of a game theory GPP approach because no one is really going to want to roster Phil with the way he has been playing over the last couple of months. In his defense, he has almost exclusively been competing on tough courses with even tougher competition. With two weeks until the next Major, if anyone needs a “tune up” event on a presumably easy course against a weaker field, it’s Mickelson. For someone carrying his relatively high price tags, his stats are pretty ugly: 53rd in SG: BS, 11th in BoB%, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 99th in Par 5 BoB%, and 59th in Proximity. Phil is clearly past his prime but you wouldn’t have guessed that earlier in the year when he carded a T2 (Desert Classic) and a win (Pebble Beach Pro-Am) with scores of -25 and -19, respectively. The scoring ability is obviously still there, so why not take a shot on him in a lineup or two when he will quite possibly be <10% owned?

Peter Malnati (DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.7k)

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Malnati profiles as a very “cash safe” golfer to deploy after making the cut in 11 of his last 12 stroke play events. However, with only two top 20s in that time frame, dating back to mid-February, the tournament upside isn’t all that spectacular. He boasts very ‘ho-hum’ stats, ranking 60th in SG: BS, 47th in BoB%, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 60th in Par 5 BoB%, and 63rd in Proximity. He’s a guy who routinely gains strokes putting while carrying quite a bit of cut equity at a reasonable price tag. Malnati is an 80/1 favorite but, considering the super consistent form, he comes in rating 15th in the overall tournament model.

Low-Priced Targets

Wyndham Clark (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.3k)

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

With this pick, I’m hoping to catch the PGA Tour rookie in an upswing of great form. Clark has notched back-to-back top 20 finishes in the last two weeks and brings one of the biggest drivers in the field along with him to Minnesota. Tee to green, he has been pretty terrible this year, but he has still managed to make 66% of his cuts and offers some tremendous birdie upside. For all the key stats, he rates out 104th in SG: BS, 5th in BoB%, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 BoB%, and 131st in Proximity. Typically, if a guy has exhibited such terrible iron play, I won’t touch ‘em. But he excels so much with the driver and putter that I’m willing to make an exception, at least for GPP lineups. 

Hank Lebioda (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k)

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

I had Lebioda written up last week and even ended up rolling him out in cash games. Unfortunately, he missed the cut by one stroke but I’m willing to give him another shot. Part of the appeal that he possessed for the Rocket Mortgage Classic was that, as a rookie, he wasn’t ‘handicapped’ by playing on a course for the first time that the majority of the field had previous experience on (since no one on the PGA Tour had competed at Detroit GC before). The same theory holds true for TPC Twin Cities this week and Lebioda, once again, checks off several boxes in the key stats. He is 25th in SG: BS, 14th in BoB%, 70th in Par 4 Scoring, 27th in Par 5 BoB%, and 45th in Proximity. He’ll be a fringe cash play for me again this week as he holds 150/1 odds but ranks 23rd in the player model.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

High-Priced

- Brooks Koepka (DK: $11.9k, FD: $12.6k) | GPP Only | The overwhelming sentiment I’m getting across the industry is “Brooks doesn’t care about non-Majors.” His recent results certainly reflect that and I’ve ridden that narrative myself lately. But if he is going to be under-owned this week then I’ll happily increase my GPP exposure on him in hopes of roughly doubling the field. Make no mistake, he needs a top 5 finish at minimum to pay off these salaries, but he is still the best player in the world and is fully capable of dominating. Ranks 1st in the model.

- Kevin Streelman (DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.8k) | Cash & GPP | Another consistent ball striker in excellent form. Seven straight made cuts with three top 6 finishes. Ideal for cash games considering a top 30 finish is very likely. Ranks 5th in the model.

Mid-Priced

- Collin Morikawa (DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.1k) | Cash & GPP | Morikawa is one of my new favorite golfers and I can’t quite pinpoint why. I just think his college/amateur career will continue to translate well into his years as a professional. I’m predicting a very consistent, Kuchar-esque type outlook for this guy. He hasn’t played enough rounds on TOUR to qualify for PGA stats, otherwise he’d rate out much better in this week’s player model (currently 83rd).

- Cameron Tringale (DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.9k) | Cash & GPP | Comes in in great form with three top 25s in his last four events -- most recently a T5. He brings a well-rounded game to the table, ranking 60th or better in all key stats and is 12th overall in the model.

Low-Priced

- Sam Burns (DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.5k) | GPP Preferred | Burns may be a fringe cash play because he has strung together lot of made cuts recently and his distance off the tee and birdie making ability are his major appeals. However, he often makes some frustrating double/triple bogeys that can be killers, so I’ll personally keep him just as a GPP play. Model Rank: 33rd.

- Max Homa (DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k) | GPP Preferred | So many intriguing plays in this range for the week but Homa has proven he can win on TOUR this year and has been fairly consistently making it to the weekend. He’s another guy who could possibly be considered as a borderline cash play given the low strength of this field but I’ll probably reserve him for GPPs. Model Rank: 29th. 

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat all week so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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