By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour kicks off the California swing with a trip out to La Quinta, California where PGA West will play host to The American Express. This is one of the more unique tournaments on the entire Tour as it features a three course rotation with a 54-hole cut coming after Saturday’s round (top 65 + ties). The American Express is also a Pro-Am so, with the amateurs slowing down play, expect longer rounds and a bit of non-golf focused TV coverage at times. A season ago, due to COVID restrictions, there were no amateurs allowed to the event, the tournament only used a two course rotation instead of three, and the cut came after 36 holes instead of 54. But of course, now, the tournament will play out as it was originally intended. This is a medium strength field with 31 of the 156 golfers in attendance ranking inside the top 100 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

The Course Preview ⛳

Pete Dye Stadium Course (PDSC)

Par 72 | Length: 7,113 Yards

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 37th, 36th, 40th, 36th, 30th

Nicklaus Tournament Course (NTC)

Par 72 | Length: 7,159 Yards

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 34th, 40th, 48th, 50th, 39th

La Quinta Country Club (LQCC)

Par 72 | Length: 7,060 Yards

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 41st, 49th, 51st, 49th, 48th

All three courses in play this week are shorter Par 72 tracks that range between 7,060 and 7,159 yards in length and feature bentgrass greens. The greens are also overseeded with Ryegrass and Poa Trivialis and will run on the slower side, around 10-11 on the stimpmeter. The PDSC will be the only course in which golfers will play twice, once before the 54-hole cut and once in the final round on Sunday. It’s also the only course that will provide ShotLink data this week. There are a number of factors that will lead to the order in which these three courses play in terms of least to most difficult. LQCC is the most likely to be the easiest course to play on while the PDSC is the favorite to play as the most difficult while the NTC lands in the middle. However, last year the NTC did play slightly harder than the PDSC, but it wasn’t by a wide margin. Either way, we can expect plenty of scoring (pending weather) this week as the winning score has landed between 20-under and 26-under in each of the last six seasons.

Strategy Notes 💡

With every golfer getting a guaranteed three rounds of play (barring injury or disqualification), I believe it brings a “stars and scrubs” approach further into play. Also, if you play showdown contests, there will be a major edge to be had by rostering golfers who play on the easier course. As mentioned above, the LQCC is likely to be the easiest of the three so I’d start there with golfers on Thursday (in single round formats). Once it is known how things will play out after the opening round, then you can make adjustments if need be for the Friday and Saturday rounds.

I’ll get into the weather more below but it’s also looking like Saturday will bring the threat of significant winds (15-20 mph sustained, 30 mph gusts). If the forecast holds true, I may be a bit more hesitant to roster golfers who will be playing on the PDSC in the third round as the wind would make the presumed toughest course of the week even more difficult. However, the only problem with that thought is the fact that many of the best golfers in the field will be playing the PDSC on Saturday. You could also argue that it’d be better for golfers to draw the better weather on the easier courses so they can shoot a super low score in more ideal conditions. Ultimately, I wouldn’t hard commit to fading golfers playing the PDSC on Saturday, but I might deploy that strategy in a few lineups and see how it shakes out.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Temperature & Rain: No precipitation in the forecast, plenty of sunshine, and temps will be comfortable, mostly in the 60s and low 70s.

Wind: Things should be fairly calm for most of this tournament with the exception of late Friday and all of Saturday. Wind speeds are expected to pick up around 4 pm on Friday and that will lead into Saturday seeing sustained wind speeds around 15-20 mph with gusts up into the 30 mph range.

Verdict: As I talked about above in the strategy section, having golfers who won’t be playing the Pete Dye Stadium Course during Saturday’s windy conditions may be a viable approach. But I’m definitely not recommending you outright fade all of those guys. Just know there is a chance that they’ll be playing the (likely) toughest course in what will be the least favorable weather conditions of the week.

You can check out what course golfers are playing on which days by clicking the link below (sort by round).

The American Express Tee Times & Course Assignments

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 5 Average | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 15%

5. Good Drive Percentage | 10%

6. Driving Accuracy | 5%

Sony Open Model Standouts

Below are the top 15 ranked golfers in both my key stats model (targeting the stats listed above) and overall model (takes into account key stats along with different weights on recent form, course history, Vegas odds, and recent fantasy points scored). The lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting, but many of these guys should be favorable DFS options this week.

Top 15 Golfers - Key Stats Only

1. Jon Rahm

2. Hayden Buckley

3. Russell Henley

4. Corey Conners

5. Sungjae Im

6. Talor Gooch

7. Seamus Power

8. Tony Finau

9. Lucas Glover

10. Patrick Cantlay

11. Carlos Ortiz

12. Luke List

13. Davis Riley

14. Chad Ramey

15. Emiliano Grillo

Top 15 Golfers - Overall Model Rank

1. Jon Rahm

2. Sungjae Im

3. Patrick Cantlay

4. Talor Gooch

5. Seamus Power

6. Tony Finau

7. Corey Conners

8. Russell Henley

9. Matthew Wolff

10. Scottie Scheffler

11. K.H. Lee

12. Carlos Ortiz

13. Abraham Ancer

14. Lucas Glover

15. Justin Rose

High-Priced Targets

Key Stats Only Rank; Provides a golfer's overall rank (in relation to the field) in my key stats only model, which takes into account only the stats listed above with those specific weights allocated towards each metric.

Overall Model Rank; a golfer's ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring outputs, and odds to win.

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 9/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #3

Cantlay owns the course record at the Pete Dye Stadium Course after firing a Sunday round of 61 a season ago which led to a final score of 22-under, just one shot back of winner Si Woo Kim. Cantlay notched four wins last season and has really looked the part as the second best player on the PGA Tour right now behind Jon Rahm. Cantlay’s tee to green game has been impeccable and, really, there is no aspect of his game that you can complain about right now. Cantlay is a native of California and has landed a top 10 finish both times he has played in this tournament -- the runner-up finish last season and a T-9 performance in 2019. The only negative I have with Cantlay this week is the fact that he’ll play on the Pete Dye Stadium Course on Saturday when the winds will be whipping. Ultimately, that may not end up mattering much, if at all, as it is simply a total guess on my part that the winds combined with playing on the (likely) most difficult course could lead to trouble. But it may be enough to keep me from locking Cantlay (and some others playing the PDSC on Saturday) into a cash lineup.

Talor Gooch | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Overall Model Rank: #4

Everything about Gooch’s game is clicking right now and he has been gaining strokes in every major tee to green category nearly every week he has been in the field. He has carded top 15 finishes in six of his last eight starts including three top fives, one being his win at the RSM Classic. In terms of average fantasy points scored over his last 10 starts, Gooch ranks second in this field only behind (you guessed it) Jon Rahm. Gooch’s last three starts in this tournament yielded strong results: T-21 (2021), T-17 (2020), T-4 (2019). And, keep in mind, those results came from time frames where his overall form was not nearly as strong as it is these days. Paying these high-end DFS salaries for Talor Gooch would have been laughable not too long ago… now, not so much.

Matthew Wolff | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #18

Overall Model Rank: #9

There is a touch of risk with Wolff simply because we haven’t seen him play since the Houston Open in mid-November. However, if he returns this week with the same form that he was showing off in the fall, then Wolff will be a certified threat to win this tournament. His four finishes in the fall resulted in a T-11 (Houston Open), a T-5 (Maykoba), a runner-up (Shriners), and a T-17 (Sanderson Farms Championship). As it was widely reported, Wolff had some mental health struggles last year and ended up taking a hiatus from golf following his disqualification at The Masters for signing an incorrect scorecard. He got his mental health right and returned two months after The Masters to post a T-15 at the US Open. Wolff definitely has some volatility to his game but if he carries that success from the fall over to The AMEX, then he needs to be on everyone’s radar for DFS lineups.

Mid-Priced Targets

Justin Rose | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 66/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #36

Overall Model Rank: #15

So I’m not crazy about the group of golfers who are on the upper end of the mid-range tier, but Rose is one guy that does pop out to me. Rose doesn’t excel in any one category on the stat sheet but he is fairly solid across the board and enters this week with some strong performances in recent outings. He has finished T-12 or better in four of his last six world wide starts and has not missed a cut since the US Open in mid-June last year.

Adam Hadwin | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #60

Overall Model Rank: #23

A strong case can be made for Hadwin as the top course horse in the field this week. Between the 2016 and 2019 seasons, Hadwin’s four results in this tournament were 6th, 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd. A year ago, his T-32 was nothing to write home about but still not a bad result in a full 156-player field. Aside from his T-6 at the Shriners, Hadwin hasn’t necessarily “popped” recently and he does profile more as a course grinder rather than prolific birdie maker. But he clearly has a knack for the courses that are on this tournament rotation and this might just be one of those weeks where Hadwin does come in and reel off a top 10 finish.

Michael Thompson | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 70/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #90

Overall Model Rank: #37

Thompson is going to be one of the more popular golfers this week simply due to how affordable he is, especially on FanDuel, combined with his strong tournament history and a couple of high-end finishes in recent starts. In Thompson’s last three starts at the AMEX, he has one missed cut but two top 10 finishes (T-5 in 2021, T-9 in 2019). He is also coming off of a T-5 finish at last week’s Sony Open in Hawaii where he ranked 3rd in the field in strokes gained on approach and 6th in strokes gained tee to green. A major downside to Thompson’s game is the fact that he does not drive the ball very far by today’s PGA standards (281.4 yards/drive this season). While that will hurt him on many courses on the PGA circuit, it will be much less of an issue on these three sub-7,200 yard Par 72s.

Low-Priced/Punt Targets

KH Lee | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Overall Model Rank: #11

Lee continues to be a strong source of value, particularly in cash games, as he has now made the cut in 10 of his last 11 starts. He had to fight tooth and nail to sneak inside the cut line last week, but he pulled it off and salvaged a T-48 performance. The putter didn’t get going for him at the Sony Open but he still gained a respectable 3.4 strokes in tee to green play. Lee landed a T-32 at the AMEX last season and a similar result would return completely acceptable value. He has top 15 upside for GPPs as well, so he is not strictly a golfer you have to limit to cash games.

Hayden Buckley | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k

Odds: 100/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #17

I absolutely love how Buckley’s game lines up on paper, as you can probably tell from him ranking 2nd in my “key stats only” model. Just to run down the list, in this field Buckley ranks 13th in SG: App, 17th in BoB%, 7th in P5 AVG, 6th in SG: OTT, 4th in Good Drive%, and 11th in Driving Accuracy. When you’re second in anything behind only Jon Rahm (1st in key stats model), then you must be doing something right. Buckley is coming in off of a T-12 at the Sony Open last week where he gained strokes both with the putter and in every major tee to green category. He ranks 2nd on the week in SG: OTT and his excellent driving accuracy will be a great trait to possess on these courses where finding the fairway can improve your chances at knocking in a birdie (especially on the Pete Dye Stadium Course).

Dylan Wu | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Overall Model Rank: #45

Wu is coming over from the Korn Ferry Tour to play with the big boys and thus far I’d say he has performed admirably among PGA level talent. In five PGA starts, he has made the cut four times with his lone missed cut coming on the number when he sat at 4-under after 36 holes at the Sanderson Farms Championship (cut was 5-under). Wu landed an impressive T-20 finish last week where his 5.42 strokes gained on approach ranked 9th in the field and his 7.11 SG: T2G ranked 7th. Wu has shown excellent upside on Par 5s (18th in P5 AVG, 16th in P5 BoB%) so the fact that he’ll have four Par 5s to take advantage of each round should buoy his DFS potential. If he can get things going with the flat stick, then he’ll really have a chance to make some noise this week.

Others to Consider

High-Priced:

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.3k, FD: $12.1k | GPP Preferred

Seamus Power | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.6k | Cash & GPP

Corey Conners | DK: $9.4k, FD: $11.2k | Cash & GPP

Mid-Priced:

Rickie Fowler | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.1k | GPP Preferred

Luke List | DK: $8k, FD: $9.6k | GPP Preferred

Harold Varner III | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.5k | GPP Preferred

Low-Priced:

Davis Riley | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.8k | GPP Preferred

Hudson Swafford | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k | Cash & GPP

Wesley Bryan | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k | GPP Preferred

James Hart du Preez | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | GPP Only

Freeroll + LineStar Avatar

We host a weekly PGA freeroll on DraftKings. Remember to join!

Here is a link for this week’s LineStar PGA freeroll contest!

• 1st place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd place: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium subscription, t-shirt, or mug

• ⭐ BONUS ⭐ If you place 1st or 2nd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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