Written by Ryan Humphries | @NitroDFS on Twitter | @N1TRO on LineStar

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour kicks off the California swing with a trip out to La Quinta, California for The American Express (formerly dubbed The Desert Classic). For this tournament we’ll get to see a bit of a unique Pro-Am event, as it features a three course rotation with a 54-hole cut on Saturday (top 65 + ties). This is a medium strength field with 26 of the 156 golfers in attendance ranking inside the top 100 in the Official World Golf Rankings. Names headlining the week include Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Paul Casey, and Francesco Molinari.

The Course Preview ⛳

As I mentioned, three courses will be in play for this event: The Stadium Course (SC), Nicklaus Tournament Course (NC), and La Quinta CC (LQ). All are shorter Par 72 tracks that range between 7,060 and 7,159 yards in length and feature bentgrass greens. The Stadium Course often ranks as one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour and is the hardest of the three by a significant margin. It’s also where the final round will take place on Sunday for all golfers who make the 54-hole cut. Traditionally, players who start off playing on the SC are at a disadvantage simply due to having to start off the week on the most difficult track.

A strategy I’ll be looking to implement is to target golfers who avoid playing the Stadium Course in the opening round and, ideally, don’t have to play there until the third round on Saturday. They’ll be able to get the two easier courses played on Thursday/Friday and hopefully have momentum and a comfortable cushion inside the cutline on Saturday. Those golfers (who make the cut) will also get a chance to play the SC in back-to-back rounds which could provide a mental edge on Sunday. This strategy may also prove to be effective in single round contests as well -- specifically by targeting golfers playing on the La Quinta CC, which is the easiest course of the three . I’ll place a link below to the tee times. Be sure to sort by round to see where golfers are playing on specific days. Also, be prepared for a bit of frustration as live player scoring may be a bit delayed. The Stadium Course is the only one with ShotLink data (and ShotTracker) and with the amateurs in the field slowing down the pace of play, you’ll be left in the dark on many of these guys’ rounds. TV coverage will likely be focused mostly on the SC as well. Expect the cutline to fall in the 6-under range and the winning score to be 20-under or better. With the multi-course rotation, I’ll be sticking to a pretty straightforward approach with my key stats. Now let’s get into the weather, those stats I’ll be looking to highlight, and the guys I’m liking to find success this week!

The American Express Tee Times

Stadium Course Hole-by-Hole Overview

Weather ⛅

After a wild week of weather last week, it looks like conditions will be much more manageable for this tournament, so I won’t waste much time discussing things here. Temps will hover in the 60s throughout the week with sustained winds maxing out around 6-7 mph. Also, no rain in the forecast. Easy peasy. There is no notable weather-related tee time advantage to be had but, as I mentioned above, I am going to be considerably higher on guys who avoid the Stadium Course until round three.

As always, the forecast page will be linked to the image below. Feel free to check for the most up-to-date outlook as we get closer to Thursday morning.

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 25%

3. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 25%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) | 10%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (P5 BoB%) | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Sungjae Im | DK: $11k, FD: $11.6k

Vegas Odds: 16/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Stadium Course Round: Saturday

The young South Korean pro has to be on everyone’s radar this week when looking around at the top priced guys. Im’s game simply fits these courses very well, evidenced by his 12th place finish here last year, and he heads into the week in solid form having made 7/7 cuts this season with a couple of top five finishes already. It isn’t very surprising to find him atop my tournament model, as he ranks 22nd in the field in SG: App, 5th in BoB%, 7th in P4 AVG, 14th in SG: OTT, and 19th in P5 BoB%. No weaknesses to be found. Im also avoids playing on the Stadium Course until the third round on Saturday which, if you read the course breakdown above, I’m pretty adamant about targeting golfers who fit that criteria. I prefer a bit more of a balanced approach in cash this week, so Im may be more suitable for GPP builds. However, if you find some value plays that you are comfortable with, feel free to roll out Sungjae Im in cash games as well.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k

Vegas Odds: 33/1 | Custom Model Rank: #6

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Stadium Course Round: Saturday

For the price, Scheffler is perhaps my favorite play on the board this week. After running laps around the competition on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, Scottie has wasted zero time finding success among the big boys. He has made 7/7 cuts this season with three top 10 results already. He has no course history here but that really isn’t much of a concern with this guy considering how well he fits the stat model and he also doesn’t have to play the SC until Saturday. In this field, Scheffler ranks 18th in SG: App, 1st in BoB%, 1st in P4 AVG, 7th in SG: OTT, and 32nd in P5 BoB%. Scheffler will be a cornerstone play for me this week, especially in cash. However, I do imagine that he’ll be very popular so I would understand if you’d want to lower exposure to him in GPPs, just in case he underperforms.

Mid-Priced Targets

Harris English | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k

Vegas Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Stadium Course Round: Friday

English is the first guy I’m highlighting who doesn’t play the SC on Saturday but he does avoid it in the opening round and tees off on the La Quinta CC (easiest course) in round three, which would probably be my secondary choice in terms of preferred golfer course schedule. English also has done well at this venue, as he has made all seven cuts here with an average finish of 31st. While he did miss the cut at his most recent start (RSM Classic), English had previously made five straight cuts to open this season while showing immense upside with four results of T6 or better. He has no terrible issues on the stat sheet either. English ranks 57th in SG: App, 28th in BoB%, 4th in P4 AVG, 20th in SG: OTT, and 79th in P5 BoB%. Overall, I’d say English is in play across the board and these salaries are fairly generous considering the amount of success he’s already had on the season.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.1k

Vegas Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #12

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Stadium Course Round: Thursday

Some may find it curious that I’m a little distrusting of McCarthy as a cash play if you’re just looking at his impressive event logs. McCarthy has been running hot, making all seven cuts this season including three top 10s within his last five starts. However, he has missed the cut in both of his two starts at this venue and, aside from the fact that he opens the tournament on the Stadium Course on Thursday, McCarthy is ultra reliant on his putter. In this field he ranks 1st overall in SG: Putting while not possessing very impressive iron play whatsoever (120th in SG: App). Though he is strong in my four other key stats: 4th in BoB%, 7th in P4 AVG, 59th in SG: OTT, and 21st in P5 BoB%. But the thing about golf is that a player’s putter can go hot or cold at the drop of a hat, so you really don’t want to entrust a guy who relies so heavily on the flat stick, especially since we haven’t seen McCarthy play since November. From a GPP standpoint, I do love him as a mid-range option because if his putter stays hot and if he manages some average/above average iron play, he could very well land yet another top 10 finish. But I simply want to advise people to use caution if you’re considering him for cash builds.

Low-Priced Targets

Nick Taylor | DK: $7k, FD: $8.4k

Vegas Odds: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #14

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆

Stadium Course Round: Saturday

I can get behind this Nick Taylor play for a few reasons. The first being that he gets to wait until Saturday before playing the Stadium Course while also having the earliest tee time that morning, so presumably the course will play softer (easier) than it would later in the day. He has also made the cut here for three straight years with finishes of 40th (‘19), 20th (‘18), and 34th (‘17). On the season he has made 5/7 cuts and he had a solid showing at last week’s Sony Open where he wrapped up with a T32 while finishing 10th in the field in SG: Approach for the week. Overall, Taylor ranks 74th in SG: App, 57th in BoB%, 20th in P4 AVG, 49th in SG: OTT, and 45th in P5 BoB%. I don’t think there is crazy upside with Nick Taylor, so I prefer him slightly more for a value cash play, but a top 25 finish should certainly be in his wheelhouse.

Kevin Streelman | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k

Vegas Odds: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #94

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rank: ★★★★☆

Stadium Course Round: Saturday

Streelman’s form is far from ideal after starting off the season making just three cuts in eight starts. For that reason, he’ll be a GPP-only play for me. But there are some promising factors here. Streelman is a solid Pro-Am player and here at the American Express he has made the cut in four of the last five years (7/10 overall) and, comparatively, he has finished T17 or better in four consecutive seasons at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He isn’t currently doing himself any favors on paper, ranking 113th in SG: App, 104th in BoB%, 51st in P4 AVG, 73rd in P5 BoB%, and 19th in SG: OTT. But I’m essentially relying on course history and Pro-Am experience here and he does possess a tremendous amount of upside when his form is clicking (T4 and T12 already this season). He also draws the Saturday Stadium Course tee time. Load him up in a stars and scrubs GPP build and enjoy the low ownership!

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Charles Howell III | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.5k

Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #9 | Cash & GPP

Stadium Course Round: Thursday

I’m not a fan of the fact that CH3 plays the SC on Thursday but in his case I doubt it will be much of an issue. He has made the cut in 11/11 trips to La Quinta with several top 15s and an overall average finish of 31st. Should be another steady week for Chucky Three Sticks.

Matthew Wolff | DK: $9k, FD: $10.7k

Vegas: 33/1 | CMR: #35 | GPP Preferred

Stadium Course Round: Saturday

Wolff carries fantastic upside week in and week out due to his dominant tee to green game and prowess off the tee. Irons can be a bit shaky and he’s never played these courses before, so he’ll be a GPP-only kinda guy for me. But ya gotta love the potential.

Brian Harman | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #28 | Cash & GPP

Stadium Course Round: Saturday

Had an MC here last year but prior to that he posted finishes of 20th (‘18), 3rd (‘17), and 11th (‘16). Harman is playing some pretty solid golf right now, so I’m on board with him for another week.

Russell Knox | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.5k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #7 | Cash & GPP

Stadium Course Round: Friday

Six consecutive made cuts on Tour this season and has finished 18th (‘19) and 29th (‘18) at this venue in the last two years. Irons are looking very strong and he’s an excellent Par 4 scorer.

Cameron Tringale | DK: $7.1k, FD: $9k

Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #6 | Cash & GPP

Stadium Course Round: Thursday

Tringale’s coasting along nicely, having made 6/6 cuts on the season and has made 7/9 cuts in his career at the AmEx. Best stats include: 12th in SG: App, 12th in P4 AVG, 35th in BoB%. Has to start off on the SC on Thursday but it’s a very early tee time which should help. He’s a suitable value play across the board.

Maverick McNealy | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.4k

Vegas: 250/1 | CMR: #23 | GPP Preferred

Stadium Course Round: Saturday

For a complete punt play who is just barely above minimum salary on both sites, I believe you could do much worse than McNealy. He’s made six straight cuts on TOUR and ranks 2nd in BoB%, 2nd in P5 BoB%, and 20th in P4 AVG. Also draws the SC on Saturday. Very intriguing stars & scrubs GPP option.

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Best of luck to you guys this week! I'll be around in chat, so just tag me if you'd like a second opinion on a player or just have any other general PGA DFS questions!

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