By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour kicks off the California swing with a trip out to PGA West in La Quinta, California for The American Express (formerly dubbed The Desert Classic). In previous years, this tournament has played as a Pro-Am event with a three course rotation and a 54-hole cut. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, things will be switched up a bit for the 2021 iteration of The American Express. The amateurs have been removed from the field and one of the courses (La Quinta CC) has been nixed from the rotation. The cut will also happen after 36 holes instead of 54, with the top 65 players (including ties) making it into the weekend. The two remaining courses are The Stadium Course and The Nicklaus Tournament Course. Golfers will play one round on each course during the first two rounds. Those who make the cut and advance into the weekend will compete on The Stadium Course for the final two rounds. This will be a full field event with 156 players on site which includes 35 of the top 100 golfers in the world. While this may not be a star-studded field, it’s another great week to play some PGA DFS and get familiar with some of the lesser known golfers.

The Course Preview ⛳

As mentioned in the intro, this will be a two course rotation between The Stadium Course (SC) and the Nicklaus Tournament Course (NTC). Both courses are Par 72s which extend between 7,100 and 7,200 yards each. The Stadium Course will be the more difficult of the two and will be the primary focus this week considering golfers (who make the cut) will play three of their four rounds there. The SC features fairways that are average in width and are surrounded by pretty light rough. However, between plenty of bunkers and water coming into play, hazards will be all over the place. The Bermudagrass green complexes are small and should run moderately fast (around 11 in the stimpmeter). Some greens are protected by *very* deep bunkers while others are set up as island greens and will force golfers to make long carry shots over water. The SC is still very “gettable” and played as the 10th easiest course (out of 49) on the PGA Tour last year so we should see golfers sink plenty of birdies this week. However, without any amateurs in the field this year, the SC may be set up a bit differently in order to offer the pros a more difficult challenge.

The Nicklaus Tournament Course shouldn’t offer up an insanely difficult challenge. It ranked as the 2nd easiest course on Tour a year ago and provides a load of scoring opportunities. The four Par 5s are much more reachable in two shots as opposed to the par 5s on the SC. The fairways at the NTC are also wider and the greens are larger but should run about the same speed as the greens at the SC. Golfers will still have to navigate fairway and greenside bunkers and a number of water hazards but nothing is in play that is too daunting for a PGA Tour professional to handle. One strategy you can deploy for GPPs is to build a lineup (or multiple lineups) with guys teeing up on the NTC on Thursday. They *should* be able to post a low score there and head into the Stadium Course on Friday with more of a cushion inside the cut line. Assuming they make the cut, they’ll also get to play the SC for three consecutive days which could provide a bit of a mental edge. Just a thought. Tee times will be linked below in the weather section. With multiple courses in play, I’ll be taking a very basic and straightforward approach in terms of what key stats I will focus on. Let’s get to it!

Weather ⛅

Looks like we can keep things very short here this week. Cool temps all week, no major rain threats in sight, and (most importantly) winds should be a non-issue. But, as always, run a final weather check on Wednesday evening just in case anything changes. The forecast page will be linked to the image below.

The American Express Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Average | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 12/1 | Custom Model Rank: #1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks*: 22nd SG: BS | 11th BoB% | 20th P4 AVG | 4th P5 AVG | 8th SG: ATG

*Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field in any given week.

With Jon Rahm bowing out of this tournament, that leaves Cantlay as the man to beat this week. Cantlay is just a dude who possesses a very well-rounded game and he’s rarely going to burn you. He has a win in his recent history (ZOZO) and in his last appearance in this tournament (2019), he came away with a 9th place finish. Cantlay also plays the NTC in the first round which, as I briefly hit on above, could end up being the more favorable course rotation draw. It’s never a huge leap to highlight the most expensive player of the week but, regardless, I don’t think you can go wrong rolling out Cantlay. And really, since Rahm didn’t withdraw until after DFS pricing was released, you can pretty much view Cantlay as coming in at a slight discount because he otherwise would have probably been at least a couple hundred dollars more expensive.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 16/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 33rd SG: BS | 4th BoB% | 10th P4 AVG | 19th P5 AVG | 38th SG: ATG

In the high-end tier of DFS pricing, Scheffler stands out quite a bit because he carries the second best odds to win this week yet he is priced as the 7th (DK) and 4th (FD) most expensive option. His odds to win are likely boosted by the fact that he finished 3rd in this tournament a year ago but he’s also been in really solid form. He has just one missed cut in his last 13 starts (which he missed by just one stroke) and he checks in with three top 20 finishes within his last four. Scheffler’s birdie upside is excellent and he’s been striping the ball off the tee this season with an average distance of 308.6 yards and a driving accuracy of 68.8%. I’d look for another strong finish out of big Scottie Scheffler this week.

Mid-Priced Targets

Sam Burns | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #4 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 5th SG: BS | 8th BoB% | 8th P4 AVG | 6th P5 AVG | 137th SG: ATG

Burns can bring excellent upside out of the middle tier this week. Aside from struggling around the greens, he crushes every other key stat I am weight for this tournament, ranking inside the top 10 in all four other categories. Burns has also had great success in this tournament the last two years after carding 6th (2020) and 18th (2019) place finishes. Aside from his missed cut at the Sanderson Farms Championship, Burns has eclipsed 84 fantasy points in his other four starts this season and he gone over 77 FP in nine of his last 11. That 10x-ish sort of value (for DraftKings) is exactly what we aim to land on in PGA DFS.

Cameron Davis | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 66/1 | Custom Model Rank: #8 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 27th SG: BS | 2nd BoB% | 24th P4 AVG | 9th P5 AVG | 111th SG: ATG

Davis led the field last week in strokes gained off the tee, he just couldn’t fully dial in his irons (-0.79 SG: App) or the flat stick (-1.75 SG: Putt). He still came away with a respectable 31st place finish and shot 68 or lower in all four rounds. So it was nice to see some solid form out of him after a tough three event stretch prior to the holiday break. Davis can pour in the birdies when he gets going and he excels on Par 5s, which there will be plenty of this week. While I’m currently listing him as a “GPP Preferred” target, I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to consider him a cash safe play. He does have just the one missed cut in his last ten starts. I’d really like to see his iron game come around though. He’s definitely a golfer to target in this range though and he’s carded 29th and 28th place finishes in this tournament the last couple of years. He’ll get to start off the week on the easier NTC as well.

Low-Priced Targets

Sepp Straka | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.1k

Odds: 80/1 | Custom Model Rank: #12 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 23rd SG: BS | 16th BoB% | 37th P4 AVG | 54th P5 AVG | 85th SG: ATG

I’m really liking Straka at this price point following a 25th place finish at the Sony Open last week where he ranked 12th in the field in strokes gained on approach. He has just one missed cut in his last nine starts and landed a 4th place finish at The American Express a year ago. He’s someone who can definitely sneak into the top 10 by the end of this week.

Akshay Bhatia | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2k

Odds: 300/1 | Custom Model Rank: #42 | GPP Only

Key Stat Ranks: 15th SG: BS | 10th BoB% | 2nd P4 AVG | 21st P5 AVG | 2nd SG: ATG

Bhatia is a certified “GPP Only” punt play. His data sample size is small but as you can see, he demolishes the key stat rankings… especially for someone who is priced just above the minimum salary. We haven’t seen Bhatia compete since December but his early season was highlighted by a T9 at the Safeway Open. If he can make the cut and push for anything close to a top 30 finish, he’ll represent some tremendous value.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Brooks Koepka | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 18/1 | CMR: #53 | GPP Only

It’s hard to say where Koepka’s game is at these days but we do know that when he is healthy and in form, he is arguably the best golfer in the world. Hasn’t competed since early December but he could be a nice leverage play for GPPs this week.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #13 | Cash & GPP

Ancer missed the cut by one stroke this past week. It was his first MC in ten starts -- just his second in his last 28 starts. For a steady golfer like Ancer, I’d be really shocked to see him go back-to-back on the missed cut wagon so if you got burned by him last week, might not be a bad time to go right back to him.

Adam Hadwin | DK: $8k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #98 | GPP Only

Another guy who hasn’t played competitively since early December but the last we saw of Hadwin, his form was pretty much down the drain -- hence the “GPP Only” recommendation. However, he is likely the strongest course horse this week. His last four starts here have resulted in finishes of 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, and 6th. Very impressive. If the form snaps back, he obviously loves this venue.

Charles Howell III | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #26 | Cash & GPP

CH3 may not be a super exciting play but typically a fairly consistent fantasy asset, especially on these West Coast swings. Howell has made 4-of-5 cuts at The American Express with three top 20s. He also has finished T30 or better for three starts in a row and stands out as a really solid cash game target.

John Huh | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #11 | Cash & GPP

Just one missed cut across his last ten starts. More impressively, Huh has three top 20s across his last four. He’s a sneaky good ball striker who excels on Par 4s (ranks 5th in the field in P4 AVG). Bermudagrass is also his best putting surface and he ranks 2nd in the field in strokes gained putting (on Bermuda).

Denny McCarthy | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.3k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #57 | GPP Preferred

McCarthy is considered to be the best putter in the world by many but the other aspects of his game are very hit or miss. However, he was lighting it up at times last season and snagged a number of top 10 finishes. He’s a super intriguing boom-or-bust option out of the bottom tier.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Scottie Scheffler

It’s very tempting to just go with chalk Cantlay this week since I still haven’t used him in my OAD yet, but I believe I’ll save him for a tournament down the line. After a disappointing T56 out of Sungjae Im last week, I’m going to go slightly against the grain with a little “splashier” golfer and select Scheffler as my American Express OAD pick. Beam me up (the leaderboard), Scottie!

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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