By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads into the second week of the Florida swing as golfers travel out to Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida to tee it up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event annually draws out a fairly strong field where many of the world’s best come to honor one of the game’s all-time greats. However, with THE PLAYERS Championship (which carries the largest purse in golf) just a week away, plenty of the top names in the golfing world are electing to take this week off. But this still remains as one of the more talented fields you will see in a regular season event outside of Majors and WGC tournaments. Since the API carries invitational status, the size of the field is a bit smaller than usual with just 123 players in attendance. The usual 36-hole cut rule is still in effect -- the top 65 (including ties) golfers on the leaderboard will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Bay Hill is one of the most iconic courses in golf and sets up as a Par 72 which measures 7,454 yards. It’s a course where elite ball strikers reign supreme and will actually play longer than its measured length due to the threat of water hazards as well as several doglegged holes. Water comes into play on eight of the holes and there are 84 bunkers to navigate around. Due to the threat of water and some thick rough, Bay Hill demands a ton of respect off of the tee and, despite the wide tree-lined fairways, you will see many golfers elect to play “less than a driver” on specific holes where hazards abound. You can go ahead and assume that around a couple hundred golf balls will go for a swim this week. Due to the length of this course, over a third of approach shots will come from 200+ yards out so players hitting the long irons well will fare better than others. On approach shots, golfers will be targeting average sized Bermuda grass greens. These greens should run fast (12.5+ on the stimpmeter) -- some green complexes are elevated and most will feature plenty of slope, undulations, and runoff areas on the perimeter.

With nearly half of all birdies coming on the four Par 5 holes, players who can take advantage of those scoring opportunities must fall within consideration. It seems quite obvious, but if golfers don’t score well on the Par 5s, they won’t be in contention come Sunday. Between 2012 and 2019, the winning score has fallen between 11-under and 19-under. However, in last year’s peculiar and abridged season, Bay Hill played as the second toughest course on Tour and saw a winning score of just 4-under par and only four players total shot under par on the week. I would expect things to revert back to the lower scores this year, but make no mistake, Bay Hill can be a very tough track to contend with and this place will absolutely punish unpolished play. As with any course, especially down in Florida, wind can add an extra layer of difficulty to things and can heavily affect the final scores. After looking at the early forecast, there will be times this week where impactful winds will come into play, primarily on the weekend. I’ll be factoring course history a bit more into my decision making this week, as guys tend to either play well here pretty consistently, or they don’t – there is not much in between. With all that covered, let’s get into a weather outlook, some key stats to focus on, and some golfers to consider for your player pools!

Weather ⛅

For Thursday and Friday, conditions are quite favorable. Sustained winds should hang in the single digits, there will be plenty of sunshine, and potential rain on Tuesday and Wednesday could soften up the course and provide better scoring opportunities. Once the weekend comes around, we may see times where sustained winds hit 15+ mph with 25+ mph gusts. Saturday also brings a legitimate threat of rain, so expect a potential shift in tee times and groupings that day with the potential for weather delays.

Verdict: Assuming most people are playing four round DFS contests, there is no real wave advantage to be had this week since conditions look nice for the opening two rounds. Once we get into the weekend, that will obviously change. Be sure to check up on the forecast if you’re playing single round or weekend only DFS contests since a tee time advantage is much more likely. As always, you can find the most up to date forecast by clicking on the image below.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 35%

2. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 15%

4. Par 4 Average | 15%

5. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Viktor Hovland | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 12/1 | CMR: #3 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 2nd SG: BS | 9th P5 BoB% | 17th Prox. 200+ Yards | 4th P4 AVG | 28th Bogey Avd.

Not many golfers in the world are striking it quite like Hovland. The 23-year-old Norwegian enters off of a week at the WGC-Workday Championship where his runner-up result could have easily been a win had it not been for a catastrophic second round quadruple bogey on the ninth hole. Against the field on the weekend, Hovland gained an absurd TWELVE strokes tee to green -- nearly double that of the second closest golfer over the final two rounds. In total, he has carded four top 5s in his previous five starts while averaging 107.2 DKFP in that stretch. Really the only thing working against him is a lack of appealing course history. While he has made the cut in both of his career starts at Bay Hill, his results have been finishes of T42 and T40. However, he’s in arguably the best form of his young career so I believe we should expect him to continue his hot streak heading into this tricky tournament.

Matthew Fitzpatrick | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #35 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 17th SG: BS | 96th P5 BoB% | 66th Prox. 200+ Yards | 35th P4 AVG | 67th Bogey Avd.

We’re probably going to want to mostly ignore the long term stats that Fitzpatrick possesses. If you roster Fitz this week, you’re primarily hoping that his short term recent form continues to remain hot and for him to build on his already impressive course history. Fitzpatrick has landed T11 and T5 finishes in his two most recent starts -- both of which came at fairly difficult events (WGC-Workday & The Genesis Inv.). He gained an average of 5.6 strokes tee to green in those tournaments as well. Prior to that, he also carded a solid T17 finish on the EURO Tour at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic in late January. Clearly, his game is clicking lately and he returns to Bay Hill where he has finished 9th (2020), 2nd (2019), and 13th (2017) within the last four years (though he did miss the cut in 2018). We’re definitely not used to paying this kind of salary for Fitzpatrick but there are plenty of reasons why Vegas is giving him the 6th best odds to win.

Mid-Priced Targets

Francesco Molinari | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.3k

Odds: 28/1 | CMR: #22 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 29th SG: BS | 87th P5 BoB% | 44th Prox. 200+ Yards | 64th P4 AVG | 10th Bogey Avd.

Molinari is another golfer whose long term form is sporadic and he definitely doesn’t look outstanding on paper. But he has certainly found a rhythm recently after landing three top 10 finishes within his past four starts. The Italian also makes his case as perhaps the best course horse in the field, with the lone exception possibly being the odds on favorite, Rory McIlroy. Molinari has made the cut at Bay Hill in all seven of his attempts while winning in his most recent appearance here in 2019 and landing three additional top 10 finishes between 2014 and 2017. He’ll be a highly appealing option within this second tier of pricing this week.

Cameron Tringale | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #6 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 22nd SG: BS | 19th P5 BoB% | 57th Prox. 200+ Yards | 30th P4 AVG | 14th Bogey Avd.

If you read these newsletters frequently then you know that Tringale’s name is one that pops up quite a bit. The guy almost always rates out well in my player models and ultimately feels like he is constantly underpriced. He’s riding a streak of seven consecutive made cuts with six top 30 finishes in that span. Tringale is simply a solid ball striker with a reliable putter and he tends to avoid compounding mistakes. He hasn’t played here since 2016 but he’s made three of four cuts at Bay Hill so course history isn’t a major concern, though there are definitely guys priced around him who bring better track records to the table. Still, Tringale sets up as an excellent mid-range target, especially for cash games.

Low-Priced Targets

Chris Kirk | DK: $7k, FD: $8.7k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #15 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 34th SG: BS | 90th P5 BoB% | 41st Prox. 200+ Yards | 10th P4 AVG | 3rd Bogey Avd.

Kirk’s iron play has been a little concerning as of late and he doesn’t necessarily always excel on Par 5s. Those are two primary reasons why I’m not too keen on notching him as a cash viable play. But he has two T16s and a runner-up to his name within his last four starts so he’s definitely on the GPP radar. Kirk has also put up three top 15s at Bay Hill within his previous four appearances there so he’s got some very nice upside but he is far from a lock to make the cut.

Matthew NeSmith | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #25 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 6th SG: BS | 58th P5 BoB% | 26th Prox. 200+ Yards | 24th P4 AVG | 26th Bogey Avd.

NeSmith missed the cut (by one stroke) in his API debut last season so he’s not bringing much course history to the table. However, for these salaries, he is fully in play especially since he enters the week off of three consecutive top 20 finishes. NeSmith is quietly one of the best ball strikers in the game of golf right now and he also leads the entire PGA Tour in greens hit in regulation (75.69%). He is easily one of my favorite value targets on the week.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Rory McIlroy | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12.3k

Odds: 8/1 | CMR: #4 | GPP Preferred

Rory hasn’t really been playing up to his standards but he is quite obviously the class of this field and his +800 odds to win are warranted considering the success he has displayed on this course. Finished T6 or better in his last four starts at Bay Hill including a win in 2018.

Sungjae Im | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 20/1 | CMR: #1 | GPP Preferred

The top ranked player in my model but I’d still probably reserve him for GPPs. He’s been playing well, just not exceptionally well, lately. Im did post a 3rd place finish in his Bay Hill debut last year so he's got the game to contend here.

Jason Kokrak | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.8k

Odds: 40/1 | CMR: #12 | Cash & GPP

Kokrak’s in nice form following a T9 last week and he’s posted a load of strong results at Bay Hill. He’s finished in the top 20 in five of his last seven API appearances -- three of those being top 10s. Excellent mid-salary piece to more balanced builds.

Rickie Fowler | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #66 | GPP Only

Still waiting on Rickie to piece his game back together but a T20 at the Genesis Invitational a couple of weeks back is a start. Fowler still lost nearly five strokes on approach that week and was heavily reliant on the putter but he has historically performed well at Bay Hill - 8/9 made cuts with four top 20s.

Matt Jones | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9k

Odds: 125/1 | CMR: #16 | Cash & GPP

Loving these salaries on Jones who is riding a streak of ten consecutive made cuts, including a T8 in his most recent start. Has made the weekend in 5/7 trips to Bay Hill, highlighted by a 3rd place finish in 2015 and 14th place finish in 2014.

Wyndham Clark | DK: $7k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #31 | GPP Preferred

There is major upside for Clark at these salaries. Profiles as more of a bomber, which may not be the best style of play this week despite the length of Bay Hill. Still, he has a couple of top 10s this season and has made eight of his last nine cuts. Fringe cash play but really like him for GPPs.

Rory Sabbatini | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k

Odds: 150/1 | CMR: #91 | GPP Only

Definitely a GPP only punt play but I’d say there are much worse options in this price range than Sabs. He has four top 15s this season and if he simply makes the cut, he’s paying off these salaries. He’s the 89th (DK) and 90th (FD) most expensive option yet carries the 62nd best odds to win.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Francesco Molinari

Tony Finau was my OAD pick last week and I wasn’t too thrilled with the 14th place result, but at the same time… it’s not like he killed me. I was very close to pulling the trigger with Hovland, but didn’t quite make the move. The Arnold Palmer Invitational carries a very solid $9.3 million purse so it’s not a bad idea to use one of your higher-end guys here (though, do remember that The Players is right around the corner and carries golf's larger purse at $15 million). I believe this is a great spot to use Molinari essentially for all the reasons mentioned above. The form is strong and he clearly loves this course.

Other OAD picks to consider: Rory, Hovland, Reed, Sungjae, Casey, Oosty

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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