Written by Ryan Humphries

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour now heads into the second week of the Florida Swing as golfers travel out to Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event annually draws out a very strong field where many of the world’s best come to honor one of the game’s all-time greats. There are 13 of the top 25, and 37 of the top 60 ranked golfers in the world in attendance this week. The Players Championship, which carries the largest purse in golf ($15 million) is just a week away, so some of the top golfers are electing to take this week off. But this remains one of the more talented fields you will see outside of Majors and WGC tournaments. Since the API carries invitational status, the size of the field is a bit smaller than usual with just 121 players. However, the usual 36-hole cut rule is still in effect as the top 65 (and ties) will move on to play the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Bay Hill, one of the most iconic courses in golf, is a Par 72 set-up that measures 7,419 yards. It’s a course that actually plays longer than its measured length due to the threat of water hazards as well as several dogleg holes. Water comes into play on eight of the holes and there are 84 bunkers to navigate around. Due to the threat of water and some thick rough, Bay Hill demands a ton of respect off of the tee and you will see many golfers elect to play “less than driver” on certain holes. There were 239 balls that found the water at Bay Hill last year (94 in the first round). Over a third of approach shots will come from 200+ yards out so players hitting the long irons well will fare better than others. With nearly half of all birdies coming on the four Par 5 holes, players who can take advantage of those scoring opportunities will need to fall within consideration as well. Golfers who do not score well on these Par 5s will kill their chances of making a run on the leaderboard. The winning score has fallen between 11-under and 19-under the last eight years, so we can most definitely expect a bit more scoring than last week at The Honda Classic. But make no mistake, Bay Hill can be a very tough track to contend with and this place will absolutely punish errant shots. As with any course, especially down in Florida, wind can add an extra layer of difficulty to things. After looking at the early forecast, there will be times this week where impactful winds will absolutely come into play. I’ll be factoring course history a bit more into my decision making this week, as guys tend to either play well here pretty consistently, or they don’t -- there is not much in between.

Also, keep in mind with the field reduced in size, we’ll likely see a higher percentage of 6/6 lineups make the cut. Delving into the lower priced golfers could be a bit more risky this week. I’d try to create lineups with as much win equity as possible and keep the exposure to the long shots at a minimum.

Weather ⛅

Pay close attention to the forecast this week because there is a real possibility that a reasonable advantage develops. Our main focus will be on the wind conditions for Thursday. Early Thursday morning will start off with very little wind to speak of. Around 10 am ET, sustained winds will pick up to around 12 mph with 15-18 mph gusts -- nothing to scoff at but still very manageable conditions. Things change in the afternoon where sustained winds could pick up to around 20 mph with 30 mph gusts. That can definitely be a problem. The winds on Friday look like they’ll stay pretty consistent throughout the day -- around 12 mph sustained, 15-18 mph gusts.

Assuming this forecast holds, I’m personally giving a fairly strong advantage to the AM/PM wave of golfers. I’m not fading the PM/AM wave outright or anything, but I do imagine several guys will have some of their shots affected by those winds on Thursday afternoon. Stay on top of the forecast this week! You’ll see the most up-to-date outlook by clicking the image below.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider* 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 30%

2. Par 5 Birdie or Better % (P5 BoB%) | 25%

3. Proximity 200+ Yards | 15%

4. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 15%

5. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

High-Priced Targets

Bryson DeChambeau | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.7k

Vegas: 18/1 | Custom Model Rank: #2 | Wave: PM/AM

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

DeChambeau doesn’t get the preferred AM/PM tee time draw but I don’t believe that will affect his upside all that much. DeChambeau has been absolutely on point with his driver and irons lately, gaining 19.3 strokes tee to green in his last two starts. He doesn’t have extensive course history at Bay Hill but he has made the cut here in all three of his appearances, including a runner-up finish in 2018. In this field, DeChambeau ranks 56th in SG: App, 12th in P5 BoB%, 19th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 6th in P4 AVG, and 3rd in Bogey Avoidance. If Patrick Reed didn’t absolutely putt out of his mind down in Mexico, DeChambeau would be coming off of a very impressive win. I prefer him slightly more for GPPs, just in case he does have some trouble with the windy conditions in that first round, but he checks out as one of the better wind players in the field, so I’m expecting him to continue his hot streak.

Sungjae Im | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11k

Vegas: 28/1 | Custom Model Rank: #5 | Wave: PM/AM

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

How can I not go back to my guy Sungjae after that winning performance at The Honda Classic last week? He really didn’t putt it all that well, gaining just one stroke putting overall. But he dominated tee to green, gaining over 13 strokes T2G on the field. I often say that I don’t love going back to a guy coming off of a win the week prior (see Viktor Hovland last week), but I’d be shocked if Im slips up too much this week on what will be another very tough course. Like DeChambeau, Im doesn’t get the preferred AM/PM draw and he doesn’t have very much course history. But in his API debut in his rookie season last year, he came away with a stout 3rd place finish. He has made 12/13 cuts this season, with seven top 25s, and stands out very well on the stat sheet. He ranks 17th in SG: App, 20th in P5 BoB%, 8th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 12th in P4 AVG, and 20th in Bogey Avoidance. He has also been a very strong putter on Burmuda greens, so all signs point toward us getting another solid week of golf out of Sungjae.

Mid-Priced Targets

Henrik Stenson | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.5k

Vegas: 40/1 | Custom Model Rank: #24 | Wave: AM/PM

Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★

Course horse, anyone? There may not be anyone in this field who has as strong and as extensive of a course history as Henrik Stenson. He has made 10/11 cuts at Bay Hill which includes four top fives and three additional top 20s. His form isn’t extremely strong at the moment, which will make me a bit wary of him for cash, but I love him for GPPs, especially since he draws the AM/PM wave. Stenson ranks 1st in SG: App, 38th in P5 BoB%, 13th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 90th in P4 AVG, and 50th in Bogey Avoidance. Obviously he is sort of all over the place across my key stats for the week, but his irons have been sharp and, of course, the major appeal is that dominant course history.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.9k

Vegas: 50/1 | Custom Model Rank: #21 | Wave: AM/PM

Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Hatton is one of my favorite all-around values this week, as he has finished inside the top 20 in six of his last seven worldwide starts, which includes a win at the Turkish Airlines Open. He has made 3/3 cuts at Bay Hill, highlighted by a 4th place result in 2017. Due to a limited measured rounds on the PGA Tour this season, Hatton’s stats aren’t properly displayed in my opinion, but it is worth noting that he led the field in strokes gained tee to green at the WGC-Mexico Championship a couple weeks ago and he ranks 1st in the field in Proximity 200+ Yards. I’ll have exposure to Hatton across the board this week.

Low-Priced Targets

Maverick McNealy | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.8k

Vegas: 100/1 | Custom Model Rank: #6 | Wave: AM/PM

Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

As the saying goes… “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” After turning in a T11 last week to card his third top 15 finish in his last four starts, McNealy simply continues to outperform his DFS salaries week in and week out. He, once again, lands near the bottom of pricing this week, so he earns yet another mention in the newsletter. McNealy has only played competitively at the API once, back in 2016, but he did make the cut and went on to post a T46 finish. He is undoubtedly in the midst of the best run of his career, so I’m clearly expecting a better finish out of him this time around. He ranks 78th in SG: App, 22nd in P5 BoB%, 18th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 17th in P4 AVG, and 16th in Bogey Avoidance. Throughout the season he has been pretty reliant on a hot putter (9th in SG: Putting) but at The Honda Classic last week he gained 7.24 strokes tee to green, which ranks 10th in the field. So he’s piecing together a complete well-rounded game. He may be pretty chalky this week but that won’t stop me from loading up on him. I’ll ride this wave until it crashes!

Patrick Rodgers | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k

Vegas: 150/1 | Custom Model Rank: #46 | Wave: PM/AM

Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆

Rodgers’ 150/1 odds to win may not be all that enticing but when you start to compare those odds to the guys priced around him, you’ll mostly see guys with 200/1 odds or worse. He has been absolutely grinding on the PGA Tour this season and has competed every week for eight straight weeks. In that stretch, he has made 7/8 cuts and has finished 35th or better in five of his last six events. He also has made 3/4 cuts at Bay Hill which includes a 7th place finish in 2018 and a 20th place finish in 2016. He ranks 15th in the field in P5 BoB% and his overall ball striking is starting to round back into form in recent weeks. He’d be a bit of a risky cash play, especially with the PM/AM tee time draw, but I really like him as a GPP punt.

Quick Hits | Others to Consider

Rory McIlroy | DK: $11.8k, FD: $12.2k

Vegas: 5.5/1 | CMR: #1 | Wave: AM/PM | GPP Preferred

Another week where the idea of fading Rory would absolutely terrify me (unless you mean Sabbatini). He has finished top 5 in all five of his PGA starts this season and in the last three years at Bay Hill he has finished 6th, 1st, and 4th. Ranks 2nd in SG: App, 1st in P5 BoB%, 14th in Prox. 200+ Yards, 7th in P4 AVG, and 1st in Bogey Avoidance. He is an absolute monster right now and also draws the AM/PM wave.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.6k

Vegas: 20/1 | CMR: #3 | Wave: PM/AM | GPP Preferred

He is 5/5 on cuts at Bay Hill but hasn’t had a stellar finish since 2016 by way of a 6th place finish. Still he has been putting together an excellent season with 9/10 made cuts and four top 10s. Ranks 11th or better in all five key stats.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.1k

Vegas: 50/1 | CMR: #12 | Wave: AM/PM | Cash & GPP

There’s always plenty of cut equity with Morikawa, as he has yet to miss a cut since turning pro. Ranks 4th in SG: App and 9th in P5 BoB%. He can easily challenge for a top 5 finish if he can get his putter going.

Abraham Ancer | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.7k

Vegas: 66/1 | CMR: #14 | Wave: PM/AM | Cash & GPP

I feel like Ancer has been flying under the radar a bit but he has made nine consecutive cuts and has carded four top 12 finishes in his last six starts. Ranks 23rd or better in 4/5 key stats and I especially love his tendency to avoid big numbers (5th in Bogey Avoidance). My only concerns for Ancer are a lack of course history and having an afternoon tee time on Thursday, but overall the good far outweighs the bad here.

Ian Poulter | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9k

Vegas: 100/1 | CMR: #45 | Wave: PM/AM | Cash & GPP

Poulter has a great feel for this course, having made the cut every year here for nine straight years while boasting six top 25 results in that span. The form is looking pretty solid with a T27 at The Honda Classic last week and a couple top 20s on the Euro Tour in his two starts prior. I have no issue rolling him out in all formats this week.

Talor Gooch | DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k

Vegas: 150/1 | CMR: #15 | Wave: AM/PM | Cash & GPP

Gooch has now ripped off 11 straight cuts and draws the earliest Thursday tee time with a 6:45 am ET start, so I’m expecting him to get off to a strong start. He ranks no worse than 53rd in any of my five key stats and if he simply makes the cut and does decent on the weekend, he pays off these salaries.

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That will do it for our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!

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