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- Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | The Arnold Palmer Invitational ⛳️
Top PGA DraftKings & FanDuel Plays | The Arnold Palmer Invitational ⛳️
Written by Ryan Humphries
Follow me on Twitter @NitroDFS or tag me in LineStar chat @N1TRO for any questions!
The Player Field & Course Preview
We’re coming off of perhaps the most exciting finish of the young season so far that took place at the Honda Classic last week. It’s a shame the viewership of that tournament was likely down due to the weaker field but if you’re a fan of the game and skipped out watching the final round on Sunday, you missed some entertaining golf!
The PGA Tour now heads into the second week of the Florida Swing, traveling out to Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event annually draws out a very strong field where many of the world’s best come to honor one of the game’s all-time greats. There are 12 of the top 20 and 36 of the top 60 ranked golfers in the world in attendance this week. Of course, the big news at the start of the week came with Tiger Woods withdrawing due to a neck strain. But the elite players like [the defending champ] Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, and many others should still give fans plenty of reasons to tune in. With the API carrying invitational status, the size of the field is a bit smaller than usual, with just 125 players competing. However, the usual 36-hole cut rule is still in effect as the top 70 (and ties) at the end of round two will go on to play the weekend.
Breaking down the course, Bay Hill is a Par 72 set-up that measures 7,419 yards. It’s a course that actually plays longer than it’s measured length due to the threat of water hazards as well as multiple dogleg holes. Water comes into play on over half of the holes and there are 84 bunkers to navigate. Bay Hill demands a ton of respect off of the tee and you will see many golfers elect to play “less than driver” on certain holes. Over a third of approach shots will come at 200+ yards out, so players hitting the long irons well should fare better than most. With nearly half of all birdies coming on the four Par 5 holes, players who traditionally take advantage of those scoring opportunities will need to fall within consideration as well. The winning score has fallen into the teens in four of the last five years. But make no mistake, Bay Hill can be a tough track to deal with and it ranked as the 15th toughest (out of 51) course on TOUR last season. This is a place that tends to see the world’s elite perform well so getting a ‘scrub’ champion like last week (no offense to Keith Mitchell) is very unlikely. Also, I’ll be factoring in course history a bit more into my decision making this week, as guys tend to either play well here consistently, or they don’t -- not much in between.
Also, keep in mind with the field reduced in size, we’ll likely see a higher percentage of 6/6 lineups make the cut. Delving into the lower priced golfers could be a bit more risky this week. I’d try to create lineups with as much win equity as possible and keep the exposure to the long shots at a minimum. I also want to give a quick plug to a great account to follow on Twitter - @CutSweats. When sweating your lineups on Friday and looking to get as many 6/6 through as possible, CutSweats tweets out updated charts every 15-30 minutes showing what percentage of 4/6, 5/6, and 6/6 lineups are entered into certain DraftKings contests. It definitely gives you a better idea of where you stand when heading into the weekend. Now, let’s get into a quick look ahead at the weather, some key stats to consider, and my favorite golfers to target this week!
Weather ⛅
For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage to be had for either group of golfers teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). The top priority in PGA DFS should be getting 6/6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line -- so if there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!
In any event held in Florida, the wind can always turn out to be a deciding factor. Over the first two rounds, I’m not seeing anything in the forecast that should be a major cause for concern. Sustained winds should remain relatively calm and in the single digits with the occasional gust hitting 10-12 mph. That may be a different story when the weekend rolls around, particularly on Sunday, but no need to worry about that just yet. Overall, it wouldn’t seem either wave has an advantage over the other this week. This is being written on Tuesday so, as always, keep an eye on any possible changes in the forecast as golfers get closer to teeing off.
Click the image above to see the latest forecast
Top Stats to Consider* 📊
1. Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: App) | 35%
2. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage (P5 BoB%) | 20%
3. Proximity 200+ Yards | 15%
4. Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) | 15%
5. Par 4 Average (P4 AVG) | 15%
*These are key stats I focus on in my personal model with the weighted percentages I put on each category. Also, course history and current form are always the top two "stats" to consider in any given week.
High-Priced Targets
Justin Rose (DK: $10.7k | FD: $12.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★★
There’s nothing bold about recommending the #2 ranked golfer in the world, but Rose is definitely someone to target in the top tier of players. He has very strong course history, making 9/11 cuts at Bay Hill, finishing 3rd, 13th, and 9th over the last three years. His last official start was on the EURO Tour circuit where he missed the cut at the Saudi International at the end of January. I won't let that worry me too much considering he finished 4th or better in seven of his ten starts prior. Rose fits the desired metrics for this week in a big way. He ranks 11th in SG: App, 1st in P5 BoB%, 15th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 1st in BoB%, and 1st in P4 AVG. Throw in the fact that he is 1st in Bogey Avoidance and you can expect good things from Rose this week. He’s reliable off of the tee, has excellent irons, and almost always gains strokes on the greens in any event he competes in. He is the second most expensive golfer on both sites so it may be tough to build a high-confidence cash lineup around him, but he should absolutely be a top target for GPPs. He has 11:1 odds to win and ranks 3rd in my overall player model.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK: $9.3k | FD: $11k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
Hideki doesn’t have extensive history at Bay Hill but he has made the cut in all four appearances with his best finish coming in 2016 with a 6th place result. When he is in good form, as he currently is after making 8/8 cuts this season, his overall approach game is tough to beat. The deciding factor with him tends to be whether or not he can perform well with the putter (80th in SG: Putting). If he simply stays around the field average in strokes gained putting this week, I have no doubt that he can contend for the podium come Sunday. He ranks 1st in SG: App, 21st in P5 BoB%, 25th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 45th in BoB%, and 46th in P4 AVG. Clearly his strength is with his iron play, where he gains nearly a full stroke per round on the field. If you’re not feeling like paying up for one of the top five or six guys, then Hideki seems like a great golfer to target as an anchor in more balanced lineups. He carries 28:1 odds to win and grades out 5th in my model.
Mid-Priced Targets
Ian Poulter (DK: $8k | FD: $10.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★★ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
We have a solid amount of talent to choose from when diving into this middle tier. Poulter has been absolutely lighting up the scorecard over his last few worldwide starts. He has a nice pattern going with finishes of 6th, 3rd, 6th, and 3rd over his last four events. Now, he has been putting way over his head lately and you can never predict how long a player's putter can stay hot. But, at his current prices, he still pops up as a strong value to target in all formats and he won't need to necessarily putt the lights out to pay off his salary. The course history is very appealing as well, as he has made the cut at Bay Hill for eight consecutive years. He ranks 26th in SG: App, 4th in P5 BoB%, 49th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 26th in BoB%, and 47th in P4 AVG. As I mentioned above in the intro, I’m weighing course history a bit heavier than I do most weeks. With Poulter's consistency in making it to the weekend here over the past eight years along with his very strong form, he makes for a top target for me this week across the board. He heads into the week as a 50:1 favorite and is 7th in my overall model.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK: $7.5k | FD: $9.9k)
Cash Rating: ★★★★☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
When pricing on DraftKings came out on Monday, RCB was pretty much the first guy that popped up as a great value when I was skimming through the field's salaries. He’s certainly in play on FanDuel as well, but absolutely seems like one of the stronger $7k values on DraftKings. The only major concern I have with him is the fact that he has zero course history and this will be his API debut. However, the recent form alleviates much of that concern, as he has seven top 25 finishes in his last eight worldwide starts and I believe this is a course that sets up well for his game -- most notably due to his elite long iron play. He ranks 35th in SG: App, 59th in P5 BoB%, 1st in Proximity 200+ Yards, 14th in BoB%, and 7th in P4 AVG. Rafa is a golfer that can frustrate you at times when he’s in your lineups, as he’ll regularly rip off three or four consecutive birdies and follow it up with a bogey and a double bogey across the next three or four holes. However, he’s landing towards the top of the leaderboard more often than not when it is all said and done, so who cares how he gets there… just as long as he gets there. He has 55:1 odds and is 24th in my model (and would be a bit higher if he had any course history).
Low-Priced Targets
Talor Gooch (DK: $6.8k | FD: $8.8k)
Cash Rating: ★★☆☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★★☆
** UPDATE ** Talor Gooch has withdrawn due to injury.
All of the metrics are pretty much screaming to play Gooch this week but it is certainly tough to trust a guy who has made only half of his cuts on the season. However, when he has made it to the weekend this season, he has not disappointed, with finishes of 14th, 4th, 3rd, and (most recently at last week’s Honda Classic) 20th. He also landed a 26th place finish at his API debut last year -- a similar result would certainly pay dividends at his current salaries this week. What causes inconsistency in his game can often be attributed to a lack of accuracy off the tee. If he clubs down in an effort to find more fairways, he certainly gives you plenty of other reasons to consider him when looking at his key stats that I’m targeting for this course. He is 3rd in SG: App, 11th in P5 BoB%, 31st in Proximity 200+ Yards, 18th in BoB%, and 23rd in P4 AVG. He easily has the best statistics in this price range that would support him as a viable punt. I’ll limit him to GPP exposure only, as he is a 125:1 long shot to win but he does pop up very noticeably as 6th in my model.
** UPDATE ** Talor Gooch has withdrawn due to injury.
Ernie Els (DK: $6.6k | FD: $8.1k)
Cash Rating: ★★★☆☆ GPP Rating: ★★★☆☆
No one is probably going to be hyped to roster Ernie Els in any of their lineups but if you need a super cheap golfer who has some very solid cut equity, then he seems to fit the bill. He has made 11/12 cuts on the season and is coming into this week off of a 20th place finish in the Honda Classic. He also has plenty of experience at Bay Hill and has made the cut in 9 out of 11 tries and 'shipped this event back in 2010. He may be nearing 50-years-old but he is figuring out a way to hang tough and find himself around on the weekend more often than he has in recent years. His stats don’t really provide much confidence, as he ranks 62nd in my overall model but he’s a guy who I expect should find nearly 70% of fairways this week while avoiding going backwards on the scorecard (4th in bogey avoidance). So, if you need a cheap cash viable guy to fill out your roster when trying to fit in someone like Rose, McIlroy, or Day, I believe you could do much worse than taking a marginal risk on ol’ Ernie Els.
Quick Hits | Others to Consider
High-Priced
- Jason Day (DK: $9.9k | FD: $11.7k) | Cash & GPP | Probably the only golfer you can play this week that you can almost guarantee will finish inside the top 10 in SG: Putting. If he plays decently with his irons, he’ll be in for a late tee time come Sunday. He was the 2016 API Champion and has made it to the weekend here for four straight years
- Tommy Fleetwood (DK: $9.1k | FD: $10.6k) | Cash & GPP | A definite core play for me this week across the board. I’m expecting him to land a top 10 finish this week. He’s one of the best pure iron players in the world and is 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards. Finished 26th and 10th the last two years. I'm expecting his best PGA finish thus far in the year to happen this week.
Mid-Priced
- Charles Howell III (DK: $8.6k | FD: $10k) | Cash & GPP | Mr. Consistency himself. Most weeks it feels like you can just lock him into a top 25 finish. He’s only missed the cut at Bay Hill once in 14 starts.
- Henrik Stenson (DK: $8.1k | FD: $10.3k) | GPP Preferred | Purely a “course horse” target here as his recent form has been below his usual standards over the last few months. However, he has four top five finishes at Bay Hill in the last five years. That sort of course history can’t be ignored. Perhaps this could be his “get right” week.
Low-Priced
- Kevin Kisner (DK: $7.2k | FD: $9k) | GPP Preferred | He pretty much lives and dies by the putter but he has finished inside the top 30 in his last three starts. Finished 2nd here in 2017 and has some of the better odds to win when compared to other players priced around him.
- Nate Lashley (DK: $6.9k | FD: $8.5k) | Cash & GPP | Has quietly made 6/6 cuts on the season with four top 20 finishes. This is certainly the strongest field he’ll have competed in this season and he has never played at Bay Hill before but he’s cheap enough and his metrics are good enough to consider him a solid value play.
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That will do it for our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview! As always, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @NitroDFS for any questions. Good luck this week!
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