By: Ryan Humphries | On Twitter & LineStar Chat @Ryan_Humphries

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour moseys its way back down to the Lone Star State as golfers get set to tee it up for the AT&T Byron Nelson which will be hosted by TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX. As some may recall, this was one of the tournaments which was canceled a season ago due to COVID. The venue for this event is also a brand new one for the PGA circuit, although TPC Craig Ranch has previously hosted a couple of KFT tournaments in years past. It will be replacing Trinity Forest, which had hosted the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2018 & 2019. Essentially, course history is a non-factor so we won’t have that to fall back on. In total, 156 golfers will be in attendance with nearly a third of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world competing. As usual, the cut will come after 36 holes with the top 65 players (including ties) moving on to play the weekend. This is the final chance for golfers to ‘tune up’ their game before the PGA Championship arrives next week so this should be a fun one!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Craig Ranch is a traditional Par 72 with four Par 5s, four Par 3s, and the course extends just under 7,500 yards. When this track hosted the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2012, the winning score landed at 16-under. Things should obviously be set up to play a bit more difficult for PGA-level talent but I believe we could still see a fair amount of scoring this week, weather permitting. By my guess-timations, we’ll see a winning score in the mid-to-high teens under par and a cut line at 2 or 3-under. Wind can be particularly impactful at most Texas courses which may add a factor of difficulty here, so keep an eye on the forecast this week. Considering the lack of competitive PGA holes played at TPC Craig Ranch, there is a bit of guesswork to be made when it comes to previewing the course this week.

Off the tee, golfers should see rolling fairways that are generally above average in width and feature ‘bouncy’ Zoysia grass with relatively light rough surrounding the short stuff. Trees and a number of bunkers border many of these mostly straight fairways while water (generally smaller bodies of water like streams and creeks instead of ponds and lakes) will come into play on about 13 of the holes. Guys would have to be very wayward off the tee to put their ball into the drink so accuracy off the tee shouldn’t be overly vital. None of the Par 5s extend more than 570 yards so they will present solid birdie opportunities and will be reachable in two shots by the majority of the field. Longer hitters could have an edge on the Par 4s as six will measure in at over 450 yards. Long iron accuracy will be vital as well with plenty of approach shots coming from a distance of 200+ yards to the pin. The bentgrass greens are above average in size and should produce a high GIR percentage (again, wind permitting), and are set to run at moderate speeds (around 11.5 on the stimpmeter). So, overall, I’ll be keeping my targeted key stats very straightforward this week. I’ll be looking for strong ball strikers with lengthy drivers being an added bonus, guys with accurate long irons, and proficient Par 4/Par 5 scorers. Nothing too crazy there. Let’s get one final PGA DFS tune-up in ourselves before the PGA Championship comes at us next week!

Weather ⛅

Thursday: Very manageable winds all day which should hardly crack double-digits. Comfortable temps with plenty of sun.

Friday: Could see sustained winds pick up to about 10-15 mph later in the morning and into the afternoon. Gusts could hit a bit above 15 mph, but overall pretty solid golf weather. More comfortable temps and partly cloudy throughout the day.

Weekend: Things get dicey on the weekend so pay attention to the forecast if you’re playing single round golf contests. The wind picks up on both days and Sunday in particular looks like it will bring trouble. Not only could 30+ mph gusts come into play in the final round, but there could be some significant rainfall throughout the day as well. Hopefully, there won’t be any overly lengthy delays or, worse, a Monday finish required. But the PGA Tour is generally pretty good about adjusting tee times and groupings when weather threatens normal play.

AT&T Byron Nelson Tee Times

Top Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 35%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Average | 10%

5. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

High-Priced Targets

Key Stat Ranks are always in relation to the field for any given week.

CMR = Custom Model Rank; a player’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal model which weighs all the key stats listed above *as well as* things like course history, recent form, and recent average fantasy scoring outputs.

Jordan Spieth | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 10/1 | CMR: #5 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 29th SG: BS | 5th BoB% | 27th P4 AVG | 15th P5 AVG | 109th Prox. 200+ Yards

We haven’t seen him compete since The Masters a month ago and he has dealt with COVID since then, but the guy is still only 27-years-old so I don’t have many concerns about any lingering health concerns as he makes his return. Spieth has posted top 5 finishes in five of his last seven events and when his form is as strong as it has been in recent months, you can never count out the local Texas guy who grew up 30 minutes away from TPC Craig Ranch. Over his past five starts, he is averaging the second most fantasy points out of any player in the field and his key stat ranks above really don’t do him justice in comparison to his recent form and how he’s been playing. Spieth also ranks 5th in the field in SG: Putting (Bentgrass), so expect him to bring a reliable flat stick to the table.

Brooks Koepka | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 18/1 | CMR: #4 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 6th SG: BS | 7th BoB% | 10th P4 AVG | 11th P5 AVG | 23rd Prox. 200+ Yards

I’m expecting Koepka to check in at around 10% ownership this week, so you wouldn’t have to go crazy on your exposure towards him if you’re looking to gain leverage against the field. Every avid golf fan knows that Brooks ‘gets up’ for Majors and with one right around the corner, he is one of the elite golfers in the field who needs to tune up his game ahead of next week’s PGA Championship. He did, of course, miss the cut by two strokes at The Masters but you may recall that he was just three weeks removed from a knee procedure and he was more or less “gutting it out” that week -- honestly, 90% of golfers probably would have just withdrawn that week. Now that Koepka is essentially two months out from that procedure, his health should be vastly improved -- maybe not 100%, but better than when we last saw him last compete. Really, the main issue with Koepka is almost always health. If he’s even 80-90% healthy this week, I could absolutely see him winning this tourney.

Mid-Priced Targets

Thomas Pieters | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #68 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: N/A

Pieters doesn’t have enough registered rounds this season on the PGA Tour to qualify for official stats, which is why he is low in my model. However, he has finished top 25 in all three of his PGA events this season, highlighted by a T23 at last September’s US Open. He has also carded finishes inside the top 15 in his previous three EURO Tour events. Pieters routinely drives the ball 310-320 yards and is quite accurate as well. He ranks 16th on the EURO Tour in SG: Total and possesses strong putting splits on bentgrass greens. Pieters will be one of my favorite semi-long shots to win this week and I like his +600 odds to finish top 10 as well.

Doug Ghim | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #17 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 8th SG: BS | 20th BoB% | 9th P4 AVG | 66th P5 AVG | 66th Prox. 200+ Yards

Ghim missed the cut in his last start at the Valspar Championship, but by just one stroke. His main downfall was losing four strokes putting across his two rounds. As most are aware, a bad day or two putting can happen to anyone, regular Joes and elite PGA level golfers alike. I’d be pretty shocked to see him miss the weekend in back-to-back starts, especially since he is just such a solid ball striker and an efficient putter on bentgrass greens (ranks 36th in the field in SG: P - Bent). Ghim also has ties to the area as a University of Texas alum. He ranks 14th in the field in average finishing position over his last ten tournaments and I believe he’s a solid low/mid-range value option.

Low-Priced Targets

Vincent Whaley | DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k

Odds: 250/1 | CMR: #38 | Cash & GPP

Key Stat Ranks: 88th SG: BS | 64th BoB% | 37th P4 AVG | 37th P5 AVG | 90th Prox. 200+ Yards

Whaley doesn’t explode off the page when looking at key stats and he’s a 250/1 long shot to win. But, out of this salary range, we’re just looking for someone to make the cut and provide a bit of upside. Whaley hasn’t missed a cut in seven consecutive starts dating back to mid-February and he’s finished no worse than T36 in his last six. He ranks 21st in the field in SG: Putting (Bentgrass) and if he simply has a decent week with his irons, I could see us getting a backdoor top 25 out of him.

Josh Teater | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k

Odds: 300/1 | CMR: #21 | GPP Preferred

Key Stat Ranks: 40th SG: BS | 26th BoB% | 5th P4 AVG | 46th P5 AVG | 113th Prox. 200+ Yards

Going with a full on punt here with Teater but he easily ranks out as the top golfer in my model in the sub-$7k (DK) & sub-$8k (FD) ranges. I have some concerns about his distance but he is able to make up for his lack of prowess off the tee with strong iron play. He comes into the week having made his past five PGA cuts, as well as a T26 and T22 in his two recent Korn Ferry Tour, starts. If you’re going stars & scrubs, Teater makes plenty of sense as a GPP flier.

Quick Hits | Other Golfers to Consider

Jon Rahm | DK: $11k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 10/1 | CMR: #3 | GPP Preferred

Perhaps it’s a good time to go back to Rahm after a missed cut last week in which he lost essentially four strokes on and around the greens. The ball striking is still in fine form and another top 10 finish is definitely in order.

Will Zalatoris | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11k

Odds: 22/1 | CMR: #6 | Cash & GPP

After firmly establishing his name in the mainstream golf world with his runner-up finish at The Masters, Zalatoris followed that performance up with a disappointing T42 (RBC Heritage) and a missed cut (Wells Fargo). It feels like the right time to jump back onto the Willy Z bandwagon… I love how his game sets up for TPC Craig Ranch.

Keith Mitchell | DK: $8k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 66/1 | CMR: #22 | GPP Preferred

After gaining a massive +7.40 SG: OTT last week at the Wells Fargo, I’ll look for Mitchell to keep bombing it down the fairways and setting up shorter approach shots at what should be a very ‘get-able’ course. The irons were sharp last week as well (+4.73 SG: App) so his all-around ball striking is on point coming into the week.

Cameron Champ | DK: $8k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 80/1 | CMR: #24 | GPP Only

I’m going back-to-back bombers here and Champ’s average driving distance of 325.4 yards is only bested by Bryson DeChambeau. Champ carded a strong T26 at The Masters and was in the lead with teammate Tony Finau heading into the Sunday round at the Zurich Classic. I’d only roll him out in GPPs myself, but the upside outweighs the risk in my opinion.

Brandt Snedeker | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #37 | Cash & GPP

The form is rounding back into shape with a T11 and T6 within his last three starts and Sneds is always reliable on bentgrass greens (4th in SG: P - Bent).

Jhonattan Vegas | DK: $7,2k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 100/1 | CMR: #19 | GPP Preferred

Vegas led the field in SG: OTT last week gaining +7.54 strokes but couldn’t get much else going with the irons, wedges, or putter. As his last name suggests, he’s always a gamble but he has made eight of his last nine cuts and can go on some lengthy birdie runs at times. Always has some eagle upside as well.

Ryan's One and Done Pick

Matthew Fitzpatrick | Odds: 20/1

I know I didn’t highlight Fitz at any point above, but the guy is in great form having finished T11 or better in five of his last six starts. He also ranks out at #10 in my model and checks off all the boxes in terms of upside that I’m looking for this week.

Note: This is my personal OAD pick that I’m rolling with in my leagues. You may have more optimal/preferred options that you still have available to choose from in your league(s). Here is my OAD pick history up to this point in the 2020-21 season.

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Once again, hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries for any questions. Good luck this week! Glad we are back!

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